Pakistan- Saudi Arabia relations

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2020

Rift over J&K

Indrani Bagchi, August 11, 2020: The Times of India

Is the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia relationship developing a fracture? After Pakistani foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi publicly berated Saudi Arabia for failing to allow the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to stand with Islamabad against India on Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan was compelled to prepay a $1-billion loan to Saudi Arabia a few days ago, part of a $3.2-billion loan given in 2018.

Eyebrows were raised at what many said was temerity displayed by Qureshi. In a TV show, he was quoted as saying: “I am once again respectfully telling OIC that a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers is our expectation. If you cannot convene it, then I’ll be compelled to ask PM Imran Khan to call a meeting of the Islamic countries that are ready to stand with us on the issue…”

Given Pakistan’s close ties with Saudi Arabia, what was he thinking? More important, what was Saudi Arabia trying to convey?

Some Pakistan observers believe it won’t be long before Islamabad sends a high-level delegation to Riyadh to make amends. It would be damaging if Saudi Arabia were to decide to return Pakistani workers in the kingdom and replace them with, say, Bangladeshi workers, as they had once threatened. Second, as many Pakistani analysts point out, Mohammed bin Salman is very different as a leader.

Pakistan’s position as the standard-bearer of the ummah is also coming into question. Hoping to challenge Saudi Arabia’s preeminent position, Pakistan has flirted with the idea of creating an alternative Islamic club — with Turkey, Iran, Qatar and Malaysia. The idea did not go far — Riyadh squashed all such pretensions. Saudi Arabia also cooled off on its promise to build infrastructure in Gwadar and the US-China discord came in the way, leaving Pakistan the loser.

Other factors are also at play. India, Saudi Arabia and UAE enjoy close economic ties, but it is the growing security and defence relations that have brought these countries much closer.

Many in Pakistan believed China and its deep pockets would make up for Saudi belligerence. Pakistan took an additional loan from China to pay off Saudi Arabia. But there are limits to how much China would oppose the Saudis. For one, as the US, Indian, Japanese and Australian markets suffer for China due to declining ties, the West Asian market is still China’s for the taking. Second, while China may have signed a 25-year strategic partnership agreement with Iran, it is also engaged in uranium exploration in Saudi Arabia — taken to conclusion, it could provide Saudi Arabia an alternative to Pakistan.

China is increasing its presence in the key oil and gas chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz, massively investing in reconstruction of Iraq as well as in Iran. China, therefore, would not be interested in making an enemy of Saudi Arabia for Pakistan.