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−	[[Category:Law,Constitution,Judiciary|R]]
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−	= Is rape '''under-reported (or over-reported)''' in India? =
−	==Delhi: Unprecedented surge in filing of false rape cases==
−	'''False cases behind Delhi's tag of rape capital: Court'''
−	PTI | Jul 27, 2013
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/False-cases-behind-Delhis-tag-of-rape-capital-Court/articleshow/21403472.cms The Times of India]
−	The court said that after the Delhi gang rape [of December 16, 2012], it led to an atmosphere where "the mere statement of a lady that she has been raped, came to be taken as the gospel truth, on the basis of which the accused was arrested and chargesheeted".
−	==Madras: 48% cases are false: HC==
−	''' Increase in fake harassment cases against men a concern: Madras HC '''
−	A Subramani [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Increase-in-fake-harassment-cases-against-men-a-26122014019021 ''The Times of India''] Dec 26 2014
−	`Wronged' women may lie but numbers don't. The Madras high court has reeled out statistics and expressed concern at the rising incidence of false cases against men on charges of rape, dowry death and harassment of women.	+	=In three sentences=
		+	The four-month monsoon [rainy] season normally begins from June 1 and ends on September 30. The Southwest Monsoon gives 70 per cent (of the entire year's) rains to the country, where agriculture still remains a major contributor to the GDP. June contributes 17% of the total rainfall, July 32%, August 28% and September 23%.    ([https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/monsoon-covers-entire-country-17-days-ahead-of-normal-schedule/articleshow/64794673.cms From PTI])
−	Justice S Nagamuthu, quoting National Crime Records Bureau data, said on Monday , “So far as crimes against women are concerned, statistics show that in rape, dowry de ath, harassment of married women and outraging modesty of women, percentage of false cases are 7.4%, 6.6%, 9.6% and 5.8% respectively“	+	And three more sentences:
−	Empathizing with men burdened with such cases, the judge said, “Those implicated in these false cases suffer in terms of humiliation, loss of money , loss of working hours, loss of mental peace and at last loss of employment as well. Most of the accused implicated in these false cases hail from poor strata of the society for whom some hearts bleed.“ Nagamuthu pointed out that in 2000, only 7.55% of all cases registered in the country were false. Citing the latest report on crime in India for the year 2012, he said the percentage of false cases was a staggering 48%.	+	How long was '''the monsoon break in June,''' during the period 2010 to 2018?
−	==Delhi: Tougher rape law leading to increase in false cases? ==	+
−	Sana Shakil,TNN | Feb 22, 2014	+
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Tougher-rape-law-leading-to-increase-in-false-cases/articleshow/30807940.cms The Times of India ]	+	2010: It was a 13-day break, the longest in June in the years 2010-18
−		+
−	NEW DELHI: Fears have been expressed that strengthening of the law against sexual offenses after the Nirbhaya case has also led to an increase in false cases. Now, there's some evidence to support this claim. Statistics on the disposal of rape cases in Delhi's trial courts show a sharp increase in the acquittal rate after the infamous December 16, 2012, gang-rape.	+
−	While in 2012, the ''' acquittal rate in rape cases ''' was 46%, in the first eight months of 2013 (for which exact figures are available) it shot up to 75%. Sources said acquittals remain high this year as well, accounting for around 70% of the cases.	+	2018: The monsoon did not move for 9 days after June 13.
−	Legal experts say the high acquittal rates are because of a spurt in the number of false rape cases being filed. The observations of judges in acquittal cases also bear this out.	+	=A backgrounder=
		+	==The overall picture==
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=LEARNING-WITH-THE-TIMES-Monsoon-usually-reaches-Indias-29052017013038  Monsoon usually reaches India's mainland by first week of June, May 29 2017: ''The Times of India'']
−	"This is an unfortunate trend. In many cases, women come up with the plea that they had registered the case out of anger and due to misunderstanding," said additional public prosecutor A T Ansari, one of the main prosecutors in the Nirbhaya case. A senior woman lawyer, who did not wish to be named, said, "It's sad but true. Registration of false cases is rampant and hence, the alarming acquittal rate. The new law is being misused because of the widened definition of rape."
−	Experts feel the ''' amended law is "widely-worded" and "ambiguous" ''' in parts and lends itself to misuse. "In around 90% of acquittal cases, the victim turns hostile. Mostly, it turns out to be a case of a relationship gone bad. The sex is consensual but the victim claims that the consent was given on account of promise of marriage," said a senior public prosecutor on condition of anonymity.	+	'''What causes monsoon?'''
−	Other ''' reasons for registering false cases ''' seem to range from extortion, recovery of dues, property disputes and extra-marital affairs.	+	Monsoon, which is the seasonal reversal in the wind direction, causes most of the rainfall received in India and some other parts of the world. The primary cause of monsoons is the difference between annual temperature trends over land and sea. The apparent position of Sun with reference to earth is not fixed -it oscillates from tropic of cancer to Capricorn through the equator. The heating leads to the creation of a low pressure region. The northeast and southeast trade winds converge in this low pressure zone which is also known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This low pressure region witnesses continuous rise of the moist wind from the sea surface to the upper layers of atmosphere, where the cooling causes the loss of moisture resulting into precipitation. It is observed that the rainy season of east Asia, Sub Saharan Africa, Australia and southern parts of North America coincides with the shift of the ITCZ towards these regions.
−	Laws dealing with sexual offences against women were strengthened post Nirbhaya incident to provide speedy justice and greater security to women. Ironically, the conviction rates were higher when the laws were less stern.	+	'''What causes Indian monsoon?'''
−	Explaining how the ''' new laws were more vulnerable to misuse, ''' a former senior prosecutor said the consent of the victim, which had earlier been a debatable issue among judges, was settled with a clarification in Section 375 of IPC. It specified that absence of physical resistance cannot be construed as consent. "I feel there should have been an exception to the false promise of marriage concept because that is the excuse which is mostly taken up by women to register false cases even though the sex was consensual," the senior lawyer said.	+	Thar Desert and adjoining areas of the northern and central Indian Subcontinent heats up during the hot seasons of sum mer. Because of the rapid solar heating mainly between April and May a lowpressure cell is created over the Indian subcontinent. To fill up this void, the moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean rush in to the subcontinent. The ITCZ, which is sometimes also referred as monsoon trough also shifts northwards towards the subcontinent causing monsoon rains which typically reaches subcontinent's mainland in the last week of May or the first week of June. The metdepartment declares the onset of monsoon over Kerala if 60% of the 14 enlisted stations falling in the states report a rainfall of 2.5mm or more for any two consec ll of 2.5mm or more for any two consec utive days falling after 10 May.
−	Though there is a provision to prosecute people for perjury if they lie in court, its rarely exercised to prosecute women in these false cases. "The courts generally don't use this discretion because they don't want genuine victims to be wary of approaching courts for justice," said senior advocate Aman Lekhi.	+	'''What are the ways to forecast monsoon?'''
−	Worried over the disturbing trend of false complaints, even fast track courts trying cases of sexual offenses have been raising concerns over the matter. In July last year, while acquitting a 75-year-old man of the charges of raping his maid, a fast track court observed that the capital has earned the notoriety of India's rape capital because of the increase in false rape cases being registered in the city. The alleged victim in this case had admitted that she ''' registered the case because she wanted to usurp the accused's property. '''	+	Generally there are three main approaches used for long range forecast of the southwest monsoon in India. The first is the statistical method which uses the historical relationships between southwest monsoon and various global weath er parameters. The historical data is then used to forecast the onset of the monsoon.The second approach is the empirical method which uses time series analysis of past rainfall data. The third is the dynamical method which uses general circula tion models of atmosphere and oceans to predict the southwest monsoons. It is observed that the prediction models based on statistical approach have so far yielded most accurate results for the Indian monsoon. However none of the models can claim 100% accuracy because there are several factors like the correlations between the parameters, changing predictability of the model over a period of time.
−	In January this year, additional sessions judge Virender Bhat expressed the need for empowering courts to order compensation for persons who get implicated in false cases. The judge, while acquitting a man of rape charges registered by a married woman in March 2013, remarked it was "a voluntary liaison" which was turned into a rape charge after the ''' woman's husband pressured her into lodging a complaint. '''	+	'''Which method is used by our met-department to forecast monsoon?'''
−	Recently, another fast track court judge, ASJ (Ms.) Nivedita Anil Sharma observed that there was a trend of registering false complaints by ''' women who wanted to save themselves embarrassment after an extra-marital affair. '''	+	Prior to 2002 IMD used to issue annual forecast using a model based on 16 parameter but it failed in 2002. Since 2003 two new models were introduced which instead of 16 used 8 and 10 parameters to forecast the southwest monsoon in India. Apart from this a two stage forecast system was also introduced--the first stage forecast was issued in mid April and an update or second stage by the end of June. This model also gave false predictions for 2004. Since 2007 a new forecast system using ensemble technique is being used to forecast monsoon. At present monsoon is predicted on the basis of five predictors including the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between north Atlantic and north Pacific, Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST, East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure, Northwest Europe Land Surface Air Temperature and Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume at designated times of the year. Instead of relying on one model with best possible forecast, the ensemble method uses inputs from the forecast of all models to calculate the final result.
−	==’Women lodging false rape cases should be punished’==	+
−	''' Women lodging false rape cases should be punished: Court '''	+
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Women-lodging-false-rape-cases-should-be-punished-Court/articleshow/46043227.cms PTI | Jan 28, 2015]	+	==Kerala and the monsoon==
		+	[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-kerala-keeps-its-date-with-the-monsoon/articleshow/82699010.cms   Sudha Nambudiri, May 18, 2021: ''The Times of India'']
−	Time has come for courts to deal firmly with women filing false rape complaints as they are tormentors warranting punishment, a Delhi court has said.	+	Infographics and lead: Sajeev Kumarapuram
−	False rape cases makes the crime graph shoot up, play havoc with the crime statistics and tend to trivialize the offence of rape and, "no sooner that the news of a person having been accused of rape spreads in the society, he is looked down upon by all and sundry," it observed.	+	As the rest of the country reels from the blistering heat, the southern state of Kerala is transitioning from a summer month to a pre-monsoon one, when the skies cloud up and the air smells of impending rain.
−	While the act of rape causes intense emotional distress and immense humiliation to the victim, at the same time one cannot lose sight of the fact that false implication in a rape case causes equal humiliation, disgrace and mental agony to the accused, the court further said.	+	Most Keralites know that if it’s hot and sultry outside, even for a week, the clouds will soon give way to showers, bringing down the mercury levels. While the southwest monsoon is still far-off for the rest of the country, the Indian meteorological department (IMD), the country’s official weather agency, indicates a near normal or above normal rainfall this time around, news that has been greeted with much enthusiasm by the local fishermen and farming community.
−	"He (rape accused) as well as his family is ostracised from the mainstream. He is humiliated and ridiculed everywhere. Even his honourable acquittal by the court is not taken note of and does little to salvage his lost honour and dignity. He has to live with the trauma of having been a rape accused throughout his life," Additional sessions judge Virender Bhat said.	+	For Kerala, which is the entry point to the Indian summer monsoon, the indications usually begin by May and June 1 is almost always the declared date of its arrival.
−	The court made the remarks while directing lodging of a complaint against a woman who had registered a false rape case against a Delhi businessman at the behest of someone who wanted to settle scores with him.	+	This, of course, varies depending on the ocean-atmospheric conditions in May. Interestingly, even though IMD has announced varying dates this year for when the monsoon will hit most states – which depends on 70 per cent of its rainfall from it – it is still June 1 for Kerala.
		+	Till 2005, the IMD would calculate the daily rainfall from seven monitoring stations in Kerala to declare the onset of monsoon. From 2006, however, a new criterion was devised, based on the daily rainfall in 14 stations across Kerala and neighbouring areas, along with measuring the wind field and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over southeast Arabian Sea.
−	"This court would be failing in its duty if appropriate proceedings are not initiated against the prosecutrix (woman) for giving false evidence against the accused," it said.	+	The first alert comes almost ten days before, when the clouds swelled with rain make their presence felt in the Andaman sea. This is when the IMD issues an approximate date for its arrival. The monsoon winds then continue to cover the rest of the country, from south to north, and from east to west, by July 15, and by September 1, it slowly starts withdrawing.
−	==Indpaedia's take==	+
−	After the Nirbhaya/ Damini rape of Dec 2012 the stigma attached to having been raped suddenly lessened at least vis-a-vis the stigma attached to having had consensual sex outside marriage, if not in absolute terms as well. This, too, explains the surge in filing of false rape cases since Dec. 2012. Please see the cases mentioned below.)	+
−	= Failed live-in relationships later called rape=	+	In the earlier decades, the monsoon would hit Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam waters first, accompanied by strong winds and heavy rainfall for three-four days, before June 1. Coasts would be cleared and beaches would be closed in those regions as the state would prepare for the monsoon. But today records show it has moved upwards to Kochi and central Kerala.
−	== Failed live-in relationships account for 21.6% of Gurgaon rape complaints ==	+
−	'''It gets knotty when they don't tie the knot'''	+
−	Sanjay Yadav, TNN | Jul 24, 2013	+	In its report, “Observed rainfall variability and changes over Kerala state”, the IMD climate research centre has found changes in the monsoon patterns in the 30 years from 1989-2018. It also notes that Kerala receives its highest rainfall in July (32.9 per cent) followed by June.
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/gurgaon/It-gets-knotty-when-they-dont-tie-the-knot/articleshow/21289055.cms The Times of India]	+	“The most notable change in the behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon is that there is a significant rise in heavy rains along with a steady decline in total monsoon rainfall. Basically, rainfall patterns have changed, and we are having longer dry spells with intermittent heavy rainfall events,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, senior scientist, centre for climate change research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. “We find that this is due to rapid ocean warming that makes the monsoon circulation erratic.”
−	GURGAON: The city is witnessing the emergence of a trend in intimacy with eight live-in relationships ending in rape complaints in the last three months. These eight rape cases are a sizeable percentage of the total 37 cases in the past six months.	+	In recent years, monsoon trackers have been noting that the beginning of the monsoon is generally weak, but gradually picks up. Also, cyclonic systems forming in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal late May or early June are considerably affecting the monsoon circulation as well as the rainfall pattern.
−	==Failed live-ins behind rise in rape cases: HC ==	+
−	New Delhi:	+	“Arabian Sea has been witnessing the formation of cyclones along with the monsoon onset in Kerala,” said S Abhilash, associate professor, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR), Cochin University. “They disturb the basic monsoon state and, depending on the region of its formation, it can adversely affect the further northward progression of monsoon. Alternatively, when the cyclones form very close to the west coast and move parallel to it, they also help in the fast propagation of monsoon current Northwards.”
−	TIMES NEWS NETWORK	+
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Failed-live-ins-behind-rise-in-rape-cases-20062014004034 The Times of India ] Jun 20 2014	+	While scientists refuse to pin down the reason behind the change in the rainfall patterns, they admit to recording changes annually and seasonally too. “The variability has increased in the recent years,” added Abhilash. “For example, Kerala has witnessed occurrences of intense droughts (2015 and 2016) and floods (2018 and 2019) in the last 10 years. Even in intensity, extreme rain events have increased. Heavy rain days are increasing and light to moderate rainy days are decreasing. For example, a large rainfall deficit of 30 per cent is compensated in one or two intense heavy spells.”
−	'' Young Adults Acting Immaturely, Says Court The court's observations came while upholding the life term given to four members of a Delhi-based girl's family for killing her lover as they did not approve of the relationship ''	+	While climate change is being pointed to as an indicator of these trends, scientists have been saying that changes in land use have contributed to the disruptions in natural systems. These land use changes become catastrophic in areas that are susceptible to natural hazards like landslides and floods.
−	One of the major reasons for increase in rape cases is the failure of live-in relationships or young adults acting immaturely by getting into commitments that end up in break-ups, the Delhi high court has observed.	+	“Kerala, which sees tropical monsoonal climate, and is sandwiched between the towering Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea, has three physiographic stretches viz, the coastal plains, the midlands and the highlands. Midlands, being a huge potential area for cash crops like rubber, population pressure, increased toward mountainous regions and coastal plains,” said Sajin Kumar K.S, adjunct assistant professor, department of Geological & Mining Engineering & Sciences, Michigan technological university. “These two physiographic regions are susceptible to landslides and floods, respectively. Hence any shifts in the natural vegetation in these regions will see catastrophic natural hazards similar to what occurred in 2018.”
−	A bench of justices [Mr.] Kailash Gambhir and [Ms.] Sunita Gupta made these observations while upholding the life term given to four members of a Delhi-based girl’s family, including her father, for killing her lover as they did not approve of the relationship.	+	The first alert comes almost ten days before the actual onset, when the clouds swelled with rain makes its presence felt in the Andaman sea
−	==Affair gone bad no ground for rape charge: Bombay HC==	+	According to him, a correlation of the land use of the Western Ghats part of Kerala, between 1973 and 2020, reveals that there is a shift in land use patterns, showing mainly a decrease in dense forest whereas increase in built-up areas. “Built-up area have shown a steep growth of approximately 300 per cent, and this could be at the expense of mixed vegetation, a common type of land use pattern seen in and around the households of Kerala,” he said.
−	Shibu Thomas, TNN | Jul 12, 2013	+	Research also shows a threefold rise in heavy rains over the west coast and central/north India. “Climate change projections indicate that the number and intensity of heavy rains will continue to increase as manmade emissions continue unabated,” said Roxy Mathew Koll. “We need to utilise our monitoring and early warning systems efficiently so that we can take advance precautions and mitigate their impacts.”
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Affair-gone-bad-no-ground-for-rape-charge-Bombay-HC/articleshow/21026732.cms The Times of India]	+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
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−	MUMBAI: A love affair gone bad is no reason to charge a man who got a woman pregnant with rape, the Bombay high court has ruled. Justice Sadhna Jadhav acquitted Borivali resident Manesh Kotiyan (39) of rape charges three years after his arrest and subsequent conviction.	+	=History=
		+	== ‘Indian monsoon system 27 million years old’==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2021%2F02%2F20&entity=Ar01716&sk=067672F2&mode=text  Rohan Dua, February 20, 2021: ''The Times of India'']
−	"The very fact that the prosecution has admitted in the cross-examination that she had a love affair with the accused and she desired to marry him. In these circumstances, offence under Section 376 of the IPC (rape) would necessarily fail," said Justice Jadhav ruling that the rape charges against Kotiyan were "unsustainable".	+	For decades, the evolution of the Indian monsoon has not been entirely understood. Nor have scientists decoded how it intensified and how it has varied with time. By analysing sediment from the Bay of Bengal, researchers have found that the present Indian monsoon system goes back at least 27 million years.
−	The court went through the prosecution case and noted that the accused had proposed to the girl. "The complainant is an educated adult person," said the judge. "She was fully aware of the fact that he (Kotiyan) was attracted to her. She chose to accompany him to Gorai. She also checked into a hotel to celebrate his birthday. She was aware of the consequences," said the judge.	+	“Previous studies only went as far back as 12 million years. They used wind and vegetation data, but that would not paint a clear picture of monsoon intensity,” corresponding author Sajid Ali from the Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeontology in Lucknow told TOI. “We analysed sediment from the Bay of Bengal. Change in sediment is directly linked to change in monsoon … The presence of minerals depends on the intensity of monsoon. Different minerals are formed when the monsoon is strong and others when it is weak.”
−	"She had not cried for help and had not taken her resistance to a logical end. Hence, it would not be justifiable to hold that the consent was obtained by intimidation, force meditated imposition, circumvention surprise or undue influence," said the judge.	+	For the study, to be published in Wiley journal ‘Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology’, they collected 38 sediment samples under Japan’s International Ocean Discovery Program.
−	The court, however, upheld Kotiyan's conviction on charges of cheating as he had failed to disclose to the victim that he was married and had children. Since he has served around three  years in prison, the court ordered his release.	+	When they studied nano fossils (plankton which are one thousand millionth of a metre) from the bottom of the sediment deposits, “those were found to be 27 million years old,” Ali explained.
−	"There is no evidence that the accused coerced her and raped her," said advocate Arfan Sait, who was appointed by the high court legal aid cell to defend Kotiyan. "He had always intended to marry her and had told her he would do so once the divorce proceedings ended."	+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
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−	The case dates back to March 2010, when the girl who was four months pregnant lodged a case of rape against Kotiyan. The two had met when they were working at a stationery shop in Borivli. In November 2009, they had gone to Gorai to celebrate Kotiyan's birthday, where according to the prosecution he forced her into having sexual intercourse. A sessions court in 2012 held Kotiyan guilty of rape and sentenced him to seven years rigorous imprisonment. Kotiyan filed an appeal in the HC. "It is clear from her deposition that she had lodged the FIR in a fit of rage," the HC said.	+	=Factors that influence the monsoons=
−	====Live-in partners accused of rape get bail soon====	+	==Dust, soot from West Asia affect monsoon in India==
−	Unlike in other rape cases, live-in partners accused of rape are usually out on bail soon.	+	===Summary===
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F11%2F16&entity=Ar02113&sk=8AB5D966&mode=text  Dust & soot from West Asia affect monsoon in India, November 16, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
−	"In many cases you find that the couples have been living together for almost a decade and one fine day the female partner wakes up and alleges rape. In many cases we do see that it's a frame-up but our hands are tied," a senior police officer told The Times of India  on condition of anonymity.
−	When contacted, Alok Mittal, police commissioner, said, "If any complainant comes with a complaint of rape to us, we immediately lodge an FIR and arrest the accused. We present our investigation report in court and the court decides on the veracity of the allegations.	+	Dust and soot transported from the deserts of the Middle East settle on the snow cover of the Himalaya mountain range and affect the intensity of the summer monsoon in India, a study has found.
−	"It may be a new trend in live-in relationships, but on our part, we never delay lodging the FIR and arresting the accused. We do not sit in judgment on the allegation and do not make any subjective observation," the police commissioner said.	+	Using a powerful Nasadeveloped atmospheric model, researchers from University of Maryland in the US found that large quantities of dark aerosols — airborne particles such as dust and soot that absorb sunlight — settle on top of the Tibetan Plateau’s snowpack in spring before the monsoons begin.
−	There were a couple of recent cases of fatality in live-in relationships that did not fit into the 'rape' trend. A Delhi Police inspector of the Special Cell (encounter specialist) and his live-in partner were found shot dead in suspicious circumstances at the woman's home in Ardee City in May. Earlier, a 24-year-old woman in a live-in relationship in rented accommodation near Sector 44 had committed suicide on April 14 by consuming a poisonous substance.	+	These dark aerosols cause the snow to absorb more sunlight and melt more quickly. The findings suggest that, among these dark aerosols, windblown dust from the Middle East has the most powerful snow-darkening effect.
−	==Supreme Court's anxiety over failed relationships being later termed rape==	+
−	'''Can a failed relationship be later termed rape, asks SC '''	+
−	Dhananjay Mahapatra	+	In years with heavy springtime dust deposition, the end result is reduced snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau, which leads to warmer temperatures on the ground and in the air above it.
−	New Delhi: TNN	+
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Can-a-failed-relationship-be-later-termed-rape-28062014007004  The Times of India] Jun 28 2014	+	Hundreds of studies have supported this relationship since British meteorologist Henry Blanford noted a connection between springtime Himalaya snow cover and the intensity of Indian monsoons. However, they have struggled to explain the reason for the same.
−	'' Court Worried Over Spurt In Such Cases, To Examine Issue ''	+	Researchers used the Goddard Earth Observing System Model to simulate 100 years’ worth of springtime snow cover and its influence on the yearly summer monsoon cycle. To test the effect of dust blown in from the Middle East, the researchers ran the same simulations again, with an added software package that incorporates the snowdarkening effects of dark aerosols deposited atop the Tibetan Plateau.
−	The Supreme Court in June 2014 asked the question which had rankled the Delhi high court last year — Can a failed consensual relationship between adults lead to filing of rape charges against the man? In a judgment last year, the HC had flagged the issue and said rape cases were being used as ''' “a weapon for vengeance and vendetta” ''' to harass and even force a man to marry.	+
−	The Supreme Court did not pass any order. But it expressed anxiety over the recent spurt in such cases.	+	Adding dark aerosol deposition to the model substantially increased the amount of sunlight absorbed by the snow, accelerating the rate of melting. This is because when snow melts, it begins to expose the darker ground underneath, which absorbs even more sunlight and intensifies the rate of melting.
−	The case before the apex court concerned a failed relationship between a top IDFC banker and a former airhostess with an international airline. The man said the highly-educated and net savvy woman knew all along that he was married with two children and it was impossible to hide his marital status. He said he could not have induced sexual relationship on the promise of marriage. The woman in her complaint accused him of sexually abusing her on the promise of marriage and threatening to circulate an indecent video of her pre pared by him.	+	Researchers also found that the strongest effect in cycles when a large amount of dust settled on the snowpack in April, May and June.
−	A vacation bench of Justices Vikramjit Sen and S K Singh asked: “Why did you take the indecent photograph? You say it was a selfie. Is it possible to take selfie of the whole body? Senior advocate Sidharth Luthra, appearing for the accused, said: “People get carried away in such relationships. They had a peculiar relationship. The bench asked, “Peculiar? It can be called a cupid relationship not a stupid relationship.“	+	===Details===
		+	[https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/11/181114120132.htm  November 14, 2018: ''Science Daily'']
−	When Luthra said that “breach of promise to marry“ was not an ingredient for rape charges, the bench asked: “Where is it held that if you had a relationship for two years, it becomes rape when it failed?“ Luthra conceded that there was a judgment to that effect by the Supreme Court.	+	'''Source: University of Maryland'''
−	==U.S. live-in partner and father of her child accused==
−	''' `THEY HAVE A DAUGHTER' - 26-year-old alleges rape by US pilot '''
−	Raj.Shekhar@timesgroup.com	+	''Middle Eastern desert dust on the Tibetan plateau could affect the Indian summer monsoon: New atmospheric modeling study could explain the mechanism behind a century-old hypothesis''
−	New Delhi:	+
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=THEY-HAVE-A-DAUGHTER-26-year-old-alleges-16072014003031 The Times of India ] Jul 16 2014	+	New research led by William Lau, a research scientist at the University of Maryland's Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), provides a plausible mechanism to explain Blanford's observations. Surprisingly, the explanation involves dust transported from the deserts of the Middle East, more than a thousand miles away.
−	A 26-year-old woman has accused an American pilot with a big airline of raping her on the pretext of marriage, police sources said.	+	Using a powerful NASA-developed atmospheric model, Lau found that large quantities of dark aerosols -- airborne particles such as dust and soot that absorb sunlight -- settle on top of the Tibetan Plateau's snowpack in spring before the monsoons begin. These dark aerosols cause the snow to absorb more sunlight and melt more quickly. The model findings suggest that, among these dark aerosols, windblown dust from the Middle East has the most powerful snow-darkening effect.
−	The complainant, who stays in south Delhi, claimed to have been introduced to the pilot by a common friend, who is an air hostess, at a party four years ago. He proposed soon after they became friends. She alleged that the man entered into physical relations with her by promising to marry her and she became pregnant.	+	In years with heavy springtime dust deposition, the end result is reduced snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau, which leads to warmer temperatures on the ground and in the air above it. This in turn sets off a series of interconnected feedback loops that intensify India's summer monsoon. A paper describing the research, co-authored by Kyu-Myung Kim of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, was published online November 12, 2018 in the journal Atmosphere.
−	The woman, who belongs to West Bengal, said she was in a live-in relationship with the man for some time and they had a daughter. However, the man clandestinely changed jobs and shifted base to Singapore, she told cops. She claimed to have made several unsuccessful attempts to contact him.	+	"Blanford knew that snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau wasn't the only phenomenon that influenced the monsoon, but he knew it was important," Lau said. "The relationship between snow cover and the monsoon is useful enough that the India Meteorological Department still uses it to develop its annual summer monsoon forecast. By adding knowledge of the physical mechanism responsible for this relationship, our study may help to develop more accurate monsoon forecasts."
−	==Former lover accused of rape==	+
−	''' Man accused of 'raping' lover let off '''	+
−	TNN Sep 16, 2013	+	Lau and Kim used the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) to simulate 100 years' worth of springtime snow cover and its influence on the yearly summer monsoon cycle. To test the effect of dust blown in from the Middle East, the researchers ran the same simulations again, with an added software package that incorporates the snow-darkening effects of dust, soot and other dark aerosols deposited atop the Tibetan Plateau.
−	[http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-09-16/delhi/42113462_1_lover-married-woman-delhi-court The Times of India]	+	Adding dark aerosol deposition to the model substantially increased the amount of sunlight absorbed by the snow, accelerating the rate of melting. This is because when snow melts, it begins to expose the darker ground underneath, which absorbs even more sunlight and intensifies the rate of melting.
−	NEW DELHI: A man accused of raping a married woman on the false promise of marriage has been acquitted by a Delhi court, which observed it was a case of an "extramarital affair being converted into rape".	+	In addition to darkening the snow early in the season, the dust also strongly enhanced atmospheric warming of the Tibetan Plateau, leading to changes in wind patterns that intensify the peak monsoon. Notably, this series of feedbacks also strengthened the same winds that transport dust from the Middle Eastern deserts, bringing more dust and further enhancing the feedback loop.
−	The court said the 25-year-old woman, who has four children, filed a false case against her lover to save herself from "embarrassment", after her husband found out about the affair.	+	According to Lau, many researchers contend that heavy monsoon rains should wash any airborne dust particles from the air, canceling out the dust's atmospheric heating effects and shutting down the feedback loop. But Lau and Kim's results suggest that enhanced winds transport enough dust to overwhelm this washout effect, leading to a net accumulation of dust on the Tibetan Plateau.
−	"This ''' ''trend'' of extramarital affairs being converted into rape ''' has become common and many cases on similar allegations have been filed. When a woman is not in a capacity to marry another man, then why should her paramour be prosecuted, incarcerated and be tried for rape when it is actually an affair," said additional sessions judge [Ms.] Nivedita Anil Sharma, adding that with changing times, the understanding of "morality" is also changing.	+	The timing of the dust's arrival was also important. Lau and Kim found the strongest effect in cycles when a large amount of dust settled on the snowpack in April, May and June.
−	== Journalist ‘raped’ for 6 years by live-in partner ==	+
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Scribe-alleges-rape-by-live-in-partner/articleshow/46328587.cms ''The Times of India''] Feb 22, 2015	+
−	A 34-year-old journalist has alleged that she was raped by her live-in partner on the pretext of marriage in south Delhi's Vasant Kunj area. The police have registered a case against the 38-year-old man, who is absconding.	+	"Every year was different in the model results. When dust arrived early in the season, it set up the initial conditions needed to change the monsoon dynamics," Lau said. "But in some years, late-season snowstorms at high altitudes covered the dust and shut down the feedback loop. It's very clear that there is a relationship between snow darkening by aerosols -- particularly Middle Eastern desert dust -- and the Indian monsoon season."
−	According to the woman, they were living together for the past six years. The man is a resident of Vasant Kunj. In her statement to the police, she claimed that the man raped her several times over the past six years. He allegedly refused to marry her after learning that she was pregnant. He even tried to abort her pregnancy, said a police source.	+	Lau and Kim acknowledge the need to move beyond modeling and investigate the connections between dark aerosols, heating and the monsoon cycle using other methods and new observations. But they are confident that their results -- which used real-world data to seed the GEOS-5 model -- could help inform monsoon prediction efforts now.
−	According to police officers, the woman met the accused after she got divorced seven years ago.	+	"This could be extremely important for agriculture. Farmers have to plan around the monsoon season to decide when to plant and when to harvest," Lau said. "In order to understand how human influences like climate change and land use affect the monsoon, we have to understand the basics -- including the effects of light-absorbing aerosols in darkening the snow on the Tibetan Plateau and in modulating the Asian summer monsoon. Such effects are so important that in the end, we may have to rewrite the curriculum for 'Monsoon 101.'"
−	==Man accused of raping former lover acquitted ==	+	Materials provided by University of Maryland. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
−	Rebecca Samervel, TNN | Oct 2, 2013	+	=Criteria used in deciding whether monsoon has arrived =
		+	[[File: The criteria that IMD adopts to decide whether monsoon has arrived or not. The dates on which the monsoon normally reaches various parts of India.jpg| <br/> i) The criteria that IMD adopts to decide whether monsoon has arrived or not. <br/> ii)The dates on which the monsoon normally reaches various parts of India. From [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/# '' The Times of India ''] |frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, '  i) The criteria that IMD adopts to decide whether monsoon has arrived or not. <br/> ii)The dates on which the monsoon normally reaches various parts of India. ',
		+	=The amount of rainfall=
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Man-accused-of-raping-former-lover-acquitted/articleshow/23380632.cms The Times of India]	+	==1901-2013: Monsoons that crossed the 100% mark==
		+	[[File: Monsoon 1901 onwards, 1901-2013.jpg| Years of excessive rain and most deficient rain in monsoon season, 1901-1945; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=STATOISTICS-MONSOON-TRAIL-30052015008020 ''The Times of India''], May 30 2015|frame|500px]]
		+	[[File: Monsoon 1901 onwards, 1901-2013b.jpg| Years of excessive rain and most deficient rain in monsoon season, 1946-2013; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=STATOISTICS-MONSOON-TRAIL-30052015008020 ''The Times of India''], May 30 2015|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphics, '| Years of excessive rain and most deficient rain in monsoon season, 1901-2013  '
−	MUMBAI: A sessions court on Tuesday acquitted a man accused of raping his former girlfriend and emailing her nude pictures to several employees of her company.	+	Since 1901, there have been 59 years when the monsoon has crossed 100% of the LPA. Since 2000, there have been only four years when monsoon crossed the 100% mark. These are 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2011. The projection is welcome news for the government as a stuttering monsoon can cast a long shadow on its political fortunes with growth slipping below 5% and high food inflation — prices for consumers rose 11.84% in June — proving a sizeable thorn in the side for UPA-2.
−	Special Judge [Ms.] Vrushali Joshi acquitted the accused after the prosecution failed to prove its case.	+	The government hopes the farm sector significantly improves on 2012’s 1.8% growth with R Rangarajan, chairman of the PM’s economic advisory council, saying a normal monsoon could even yield a 3.4% growth.
−	It was the prosecution's case that the accused (32) had raped and abused the 22-year-old woman '''on several occasions between June 2006 and December 2007.''' Defence advocate Amin Solkar argued that the sex was consensual and there was no evidence to show that the accused had actually sent the emails or pasted the pictures. "The camera from which the pictures were taken was actually recovered from the woman," Solkar said.	+	==India: Back-to-back, ‘above normal’ monsoon after 1958-59==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2020%2F10%2F02&entity=Ar00110&sk=1682525F&mode=text  After 61 yrs, India gets back-to-back ‘above normal’ monsoon seasons, October 2, 2020: ''The Times of India'']
−	In her statement to the police, the woman said the duo had made attempts to elope and get married, but their plan did not materialize.	+	[[File: Salient features of Monsoon 2020.jpg|Salient features of Monsoon 2020 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2020%2F10%2F02&entity=Ar00110&sk=1682525F&mode=text  After 61 yrs, India gets back-to-back ‘above normal’ monsoon seasons, October 2, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	The woman claimed that she had found out that the accused was previously married. When confronted, he assured her that he would get a divorce.
−	= Refusal to marry later called rape=
−	See also the page [[Rapes in India: court verdicts]], especially the section 'Is sex on promise of marriage rape?'
−	==Neighbour raped her for years, refused to marry==
−	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/03/14&PageLabel=12&EntityId=Ar01204&ViewMode=HTML The Times of India ]
−	''' Woman alleges rape, blackmail '''	+	For the first time in 61 years, India recorded back-to-back “above normal” monsoon years, with this year’s season ending with countrywide rainfall at 9% above the long period average (LPA). Monsoon rains this year were also the second highest in 26 years after 2019, when rainfall across the country was 10% above the LPA.
		+	The last time India had two consecutive years of above normal monsoon was in 1958 (110% of LPA) and 1959 (114% of LPA). This year, an average of 95.8cm of rain was recorded in the country as against the LPA of 88cm.
−	New Delhi: A woman has alleged she was raped by her neighbour for the past few years after being blackmailed by him. She claimed that she was first raped at Buddh Garden in 2007 during which the man had clicked a few photographs of her which he had used to blackmail her later.	+	''' Surplus rains in June, Aug & Sept '''
−	After she asked the man to marry her and he refused, she registered a case with Gulabi Bagh police station.	+	However, the distribution of seasonal rainfall during the June-September period was not uniform. The country recorded the highest 127% of LPA rainfall in August while July was a deficit month with 90% of LPA. The monsoon rainfall has to be between 96%-104% of LPA to be considered “normal” and between 104-110% of the LPA to be described as “above normal”. Anything more is termed “excess” rainfall.
−	== Police officer rapes for three years on assurance of marriage==	+
−	''' Woman accuses police officer of rape, moves HC for CBI probe '''	+	In its first stage forecast for the seasonal rainfall issued in April, the IMD had predicted rains to be 100% of LPA (normal) with a model error of ± 5%. The forecast was upgraded to 102% of LPA, with a model error of ± 4%, in IMD’s update in May end. IMD also predicted a probability of 65% of monsoon rainfall to be “normal” to “above normal”. The actual seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole was 109% of LPA, which is more than the predicted value and thus turned out to be positive for the kharif (summer) crops.
		+
		+	Though India had recorded deficit rainfall in July, the surplus rains in June, August and September helped in the country recording an all-time high acreage. Based on it, the agriculture ministry has set a record target of 301 million tonnes of foodgrains for the 2020-21 crop year. The monsoon started retreating from western parts of north-west India on September 28 against the normal withdrawal date of September 17. As on Thursday, the south-west monsoon had withdrawn from Punjab, western Himalayan region, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and parts of Rajasthan and some parts of Uttar Pradesh.
		+
		+
		+
		+	== Driest, wettest cities of India: Jun-Aug==
		+	[[File: The driest and wettest cities of India during the monsoons.jpg| The driest and wettest cities of India during the monsoons ; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=STATOISTICS-MONSOON-BLUES-SOME-CITIES-GET-FLOODED-OTHERS-10062016009038 ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, ' The driest and wettest cities of India during the monsoons '
		+
		+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+
		+	=Dates when monsoons reach different regions=
		+	==In typical years==
		+	[[File: moonsoon1.png| The dates on which the monsoon normally reaches various parts of India.|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, ' The dates on which the monsoon normally reaches various parts of India.  '
		+	== Years in which the monsoon arrived early ==
		+	[[File: years in which the monsoon arrived early.jpg|Years in which the monsoon arrived early: 2011-2014; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Gallery.aspx?id=15_05_2015_009_024_009&type=P&artUrl=Monsoon-may-be-early-but-El-Nino-fear-15052015009024&eid=31808 ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, '  Years in which the monsoon arrived early: 2011-2014'
		+	== Kerala, 2005-2017: actual dates==
		+
		+	[[File: The date when the monsoon arrived in Kerala, 2005-2017.jpg| i) The date when the monsoon arrived in Kerala, 2005-2017: and the date when forecasters had said it would  <br/> ii) Actual rainfall vis-à-vis official forecasts, 1990-2015; <br/> iii) The dates on which the monsoon normally reaches various parts of India. [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=ITS-OFFICIAL-MONSOON-TO-HIT-KERALA-MAY-30-17052017032006 The Times of India], May 17, 2017|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	==Delhi: 2007-12==
		+	[[File: Delhimonsoon.jpg| The arrival of the monsoon in Delhi: 2007-12|frame|500px]]
		+	See accompanying chart for Delhi '' The arrival of the monsoon in Delhi: 2007-12 ''
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Woman-accuses-police-officer-of-rape-moves-HC-for-CBI-probe/articleshow/31005651.cms PTI] | Feb 25, 2014	+	==Kerala: 2008-15, onset vs performance ==
		+	[[File: Monsoons onset vs performance 2008-15.jpg|Date of onset of Monsoons in Kerala, 2008-15, vis-à-vis its all- India performance. There is no correlation between early or late arrival in Kerala and good or bad all- India performance <br/>  Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Monsoon-hits-Kerala-but-may-lose-its-mojo-06062015021003 ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, ' Date of onset of Monsoons in Kerala, 2008-15, vis-à-vis its all- India performance. There is no correlation between early or late arrival in Kerala and good or bad all- India performance'
		+
		+	==2011-15: actual and forecast dates==
		+	[[File: Onset date for Monsoons, actual and forecast, 2011-15, year-wise.jpg|Onset date for Monsoons, actual and forecast, 2011-15, year-wise; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=16_05_2016_008_034_009&type=P&artUrl=6-days-of-delay-in-date-with-monsoon-16052016008034&eid=31808 ''The Times of India''], May 16, 2016|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, ' Onset date for Monsoons, actual and forecast, 2011-15, year-wise  '
		+
		+	==2012-20: Date of Monsoon covering entire country==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2020%2F06%2F27&entity=Ar00314&sk=5A09FF3A&mode=text  Monsoon covers India 12 days in advance, fastest since 2013, June 27, 2020: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	[[File: Date of Monsoon covering entire country, 2012-20.jpg|Date of Monsoon covering entire country, 2012-20 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2020%2F06%2F27&entity=Ar00314&sk=5A09FF3A&mode=text  Monsoon covers India 12 days in advance, fastest since 2013, June 27, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	22% Rain Surplus In June, Good Sign For Sowing
		+
		+	Pune/New Delhi:
		+
		+	In a swift and smooth advance through the country, the monsoon covered the whole of India, 12 days before the normal date of July 8, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
		+
		+	Along with 2015, when the monsoon had raced through the country on the same date, this was the fastest progression of the rain-bearing system since 2013.
		+
		+	In the past 13 years, the monsoon has covered the entire country before June 26 only once — in 2013, when a freak convergence of several weather systems had caused the catastrophic Kedarnath deluge while advancing the monsoon by an all-time record date of June 16.
		+
		+	IMD said the monsoon marched into the remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan to cover the entire country, 26 days after hitting the Kerala coast. This sets the stage for timely sowing of kharif crops across the country.
		+
		+	“This was one of the smoothest advances of the monsoon in recent years. Usually the monsoon progresses in fits and starts, but this year it did not stall for long at any stage,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster.
		+
		+	==2020:  2 weeks early==
		+	[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/monsoon-covers-entire-country-nearly-two-weeks-early-imd/articleshow/76641734.cms  Monsoon covers entire country nearly two weeks early: IMD, June 26, 2020: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	NEW DELHI: The Southwest Monsoon has covered the entire country nearly two weeks ahead of its schedule, the India Meteorological Department said.
		+
		+	The monsoon usually sets over Kerala on June 1 and it takes 45 days to reach Sriganganagar in west Rajasthan, its last outpost in the country.
		+
		+	From this year however, the IMD has advanced the onset date over Sriganganagar by a week and the new normal date for monsoon to cover the entire country is July 8.
		+
		+	"The Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab and thus it has covered the entire country today, June 26," the IMD said.
		+
		+	A low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, which moved west-northwestwards, and another cyclonic circulation over central India helped in advance of the monsoon.
		+
		+	In 2013, the monsoon had covered the entire country on June 16. This had also coincided with the deadly Uttarakhand flash floods.
		+
		+	"After 2013, monsoon has covered the country so rapidly this year," IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said.
		+
		+	===2020: progress across India ===
		+	[[File: Progress of  Southwest  Monsoon 2020- Advance (See above) and Withdrawal (See below).jpg|Progress of  Southwest  Monsoon 2020- Advance (See above) and Withdrawal (See below) <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-kerala-keeps-its-date-with-the-monsoon/articleshow/82699010.cms  Sudha Nambudiri, May 18, 2021: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	'''See graphic''':
		+
		+	'' Progress of  Southwest  Monsoon 2020- Advance (See above) and Withdrawal (See below) ''
		+
		+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:Pages with broken file links|MONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+
		+	==Monsoon cycle==
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=STATOISTICS-02062015008045 ''The Times of India''] , Jun 02 2015
		+	[[File: Monsoon cycle.jpg| Monsoon cycle: India; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=STATOISTICS-02062015008045 ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	If after May 10, 60% of 14 stations -Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore -report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, the onset of the monsoon is declared on the second day. Normally, the monsoon sets in over Kerala around June 1 and then advances northwards. By June 5, it goes past half of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh and crosses Maharashtra by the 10th.It covers significant portions of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh by June 15 and the entire country by June-end.
		+
		+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+
		+	=The El Niño effect=
		+	==1951-2017: El Niño Vs. IOD ==
		+	[[File: Impact of the El-Nino on Indian monsoons, 1951-2017.jpg|Impact of the El-Nino on Indian monsoons, 1951-2017; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=20_04_2017_010_040_010&type=P&artUrl=IMD-tracks-changes-in-Indian-Ocean-for-monsoon-20042017010040&eid=31808 The Times of India], April 20, 2017|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	'''See graphic''':
		+
		+	''Impact of the El-Nino on Indian monsoons, 1951-2017''
		+
		+	==1970-2015==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F04%2F17&entity=Ar01316&sk=2D3A7300&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, Does IMD forecast signal monsoon acing El Nino in ’19?, April 17, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	[[File: How monsoon rains have fared during El Nino years, 1987-2015..jpg|How monsoon rains have fared during El Nino years, 1987-2015. <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F04%2F17&entity=Ar01316&sk=2D3A7300&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, Does IMD forecast signal monsoon acing El Nino in ’19?, April 17, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+
		+	IMD has forecast a “near normal” monsoon this year while also indicating that a weak El Nino is likely to persist through the rainy season. If both forecasts hold true, it would be only the second time in nearly 50 years that India will have a normal monsoon in an El Nino year.
		+
		+	There have been nine El Nino years since 1970, and only once has the Indian summer monsoon remained unscathed from its influence. That was in 1997, when despite one of the strongest El Ninos, the monsoon ended 2% above normal.
		+
		+	In the other eight instances, the June-September rains in India were hit irrespective of El Nino’s strength — weak, moderate or strong — indicating a strong link between the weather anomaly in the Pacific and monsoon’s performance in India.
		+
		+	El Nino is an abnormal warming of ocean waters in east and central equatorial Pacific that drives changes in wind currents which, in turn, have weather impact around the world.
		+
		+	Apart from 1997, other instances of good monsoons during El Nino years are all from the 1950s and 60s. “There are two years when the monsoon was normal or above normal during a weak El Nino, 1953 and 1969. This year’s El Nino is also predicted to be weak,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forcaster. The monsoon also defied El Nino in 1957 and 1963, IMD records show.
		+
		+	However, the link between El Nino and poor monsoon appears to have strengthened in recent decades. All four El Ninos since year 2000 have adversely impacted rainfall in India. This includes a weak episode in 2004, which led to a drought year with the monsoon ending at 14% below normal.
		+
		+	In recent years, just a warming in the Pacific, which didn’t result in an El Nino, is believed to have impacted the monsoon in 2012 and 2014. However, every El Nino is unique with its own peculiarities. How it plays out, and whether large-scale features that depress the monsoon actually develop, remains to be seen.
		+
		+	=How the monsoons control our destiny=
		+	==1950-2010: India’s growth rate in drought years==
		+	[[File: growth rate during droughts in india.jpg|Growth rate in drought years in India and monsoon departure from normal: 1950-2010 <br/>  Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Gallery.aspx?id=04_06_2015_008_009_003&type=P&artUrl=STATOISTICS-ECONOMYS-DRY-RUN-04062015008009&eid=31808 ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic ‘Growth rate in drought years in India and monsoon departure from normal’
		+
		+	==Why Monsoon Matters Beyond The Farm==
		+	===1965-2010===
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F06%2F11&entity=Ar01514&sk=DD68288E&mode=text  June 11, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	[[File: Monsoon rain departure from normal, GDP growth rate, Change from previous year's growth rate, 1965-2010.jpg|Monsoon rain departure from normal; <br/>  GDP growth rate; <br/> Change from previous year's growth rate' <br/> 1965-2010 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F06%2F11&entity=Ar01514&sk=DD68288E&mode=text  June 11, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	[[File: Growth of Kharif and Rabi crop during monsoon and winter- 2003-16, year-wise; annual rainfall, state-wise.jpg|Growth of Kharif and Rabi crop during monsoon and winter- 2003-16, year-wise; <br/> annual rainfall, state-wise <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F06%2F11&entity=Ar01514&sk=DD68288E&mode=text  June 11, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	''Amid hopes that the projected 97% monsoon will fuel growth, here’s a look at monsoon’s role in India’s economy''
		+
		+
		+	'''How does the monsoon affect India’s economy?'''
		+
		+	The monsoon’s failure is often linked to the economy’s overall performance. It is not the agricultural sector alone that is affected by a bad monsoon — industry too suffers as lower farm output decreases demand from this sector, which employs half the country’s workforce. Contrasting GDP growth rates with drought years since 1951-52 reveals growth is sluggish in drought years. In recent years this correlation has become weaker, which may be linked to the fact that agriculture’s share in GDP has also fallen. But it continues to employ half of India’s workforce.
		+
		+	'''Is there a major difference between agricultural output in Kharif and Rabi seasons?'''
		+
		+	Over the past decade, the share of Kharif (monsoon) crops in the national output have fallen, while Rabi (winter) crops are on the rise. Crops like rice and maize, which grow in monsoon and winter, have seen a marked decline in Kharif output, while the share of their Rabi output has risen. Exclusively Rabi crops, such as wheat, remain unaffected by monsoons.
		+
		+	'''What is the Indian monsoon?'''
		+
		+	The southwest monsoon is a summertime reversal in wind direction that provides nearly 70% of the Indian subcontinent’s annual rainfall. Monsoon winds originate from the southern Indian Ocean. They get deflected southwestwards towards India after crossing the equator. These winds are driven by air pressure differences caused by the more rapid heating up of the land in summers compared to the ocean. The land heats up the air over it, causing it to rise and create a low-pressure zone, which attracts winds from the highpressure regions over the ocean. In south Asia, the effect is enhanced by the Tibetan plateau, which heats up more than the atmosphere would at its height. Monsoon has a set pattern of advance and withdrawal. It arrives in southern India in May or June, and advances northwards and westwards, reaching Pakistan by July. It retreats from Pakistan by September, finally withdrawing from southern India by December. The season doesn’t see a continuous deluge, but has alternate wet and dry phases, the timing and duration of which account for much of the year-to-year variation in monsoon rains.
		+
		+	'''What are the country’s wettest and driest states?'''
		+
		+	Mawsynram, a village in Meghalaya is the world’s wettest place. Meghalaya receives the country’s highest rainfall followed by Goa and Sikkim. The national capital on the other hand was among the driest states in 2016.
		+
		+	===2008-19===
		+	[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-the-monsoon-affects-your-life/articleshow/68736569.cms April 6, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+
		+	[[File: How monsoon affects our lives in India, 2008-19.jpg|How monsoon affects our lives in India, 2008-19 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F04%2F05&entity=Ar00400&sk=2BD8ED9F&mode=image  April 5, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+
		+	'''See graphic''':
		+
		+	''How monsoon affects our lives in India, 2008-19''
		+
		+
		+	Skymet, a private weather forecaster, has predicted the likelihood of below-normal rains this year, particularly in the central and eastern regions. The forecaster pegged rainfall in the country during the 2019 monsoon (June-September) at 93% of the long-period average (LPA) of 887 mm. LPA is defined as the average annual rainfall over a 50-year period. There is a a 55% probability that the total rainfall will be below normal and a 15% probability of drought.
		+	What is a normal monsoon
		+
		+	India defines average, or normal rainfall as between 96-104% of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season beginning June until September. Anything less than 90% is a 'deficient' monsoon, while 90-96% is considered 'below normal'. An average between 104-110% is 'above normal' and anything above 110% is 'excess'. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the country's official weather forecaster, will issue its monsoon outlook later this month.
		+	A good monsoon which waters more than half of the country's farmland is essential to boost consumption and economy. Even though farming output makes up just less than 14% of India's economy, the sector employs more than half of the country's 1.3 billion population. Here's a look at how the adequacy of monsoons has affected key indicators of the economy in the past 10 years.
		+
		+
		+	'''1. RAINFALL'''
		+
		+	[[File: IMD forecast as % of LPA; Actual rainfall as % of LPA, 2009-18.jpg|IMD forecast as % of LPA; Actual rainfall as % of LPA, 2009-18 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-the-monsoon-affects-your-life/articleshow/68736569.cms  April 6, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	The country narrowly escaped a drought in 2018, following two successive years of normal rains. Skymet's forecast of a below normal monsoon in 2019 is on account of a developing El Nino phenomenon, when warm waters in the Pacific Ocean impact summer rains in India. "The Pacific Ocean has become strongly warmer than average. This means, it is going to be a devolving El Nino year," said Jatin Singh, Skymet's managing director. "But even if it is a mild El Nino, it will have its impact on rainfall," added GP Sharma, Skymet's president of meteorology.
		+
		+
		+	'''2. AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION'''
		+
		+	[[File: YoY % change in foodgrain production, 2008-19.jpg|YoY % change in foodgrain production, 2008-19 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-the-monsoon-affects-your-life/articleshow/68736569.cms  April 6, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	The monsoon delivers about 70% of India's annual rainfall and is key to the success of the agriculture sector, There is a 75% probability of below normal rainfall this June, which could decrease to 55% in July, the two months when rains are critical for the sowing of kharif (summer) crops. The monsoon is then likely to pick up pace in August and September, during which El Nino will begin to decay.
		+	Every year of below-normal monsoon badly affects foodgrain output. Farm output suffers majorly in a drought year, when rainfall is more than 10% below normal, like in 2014-15 and 2015-16. Both years -- the first two of PM Narendra Modi's tenure -- saw negative growth in farm production, but recovered substantially in the 2016-17.
		+
		+
		+	'''3. AGRICULTURE GDP'''
		+
		+	[[File: YoY % change in GVA of agriculture, forestry, fishing, 2008-19.jpg|YoY % change in GVA of agriculture, forestry, fishing, 2008-19 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-the-monsoon-affects-your-life/articleshow/68736569.cms  April 6, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	Thanks to price support, the Gross Value Added (GVA) of agriculture output is less adversely affected by poor rainfall than farm output is.
		+
		+
		+	'''4. FOOD INFLATION'''
		+
		+	[[File: % change in consumer price index of food, 2011-19.jpg|% change in consumer price index of food, 2011-19 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-the-monsoon-affects-your-life/articleshow/68736569.cms  April 6, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	Food prices are less affected by monsoon due to buffer stocks and import. Other factors that drive food inflation in India -- rural wages, minimum support prices (MSP), agriculture input costs and global food prices.
		+
		+
		+	First, rural wages are important because human labour accounts for 25-20% of the total cost of cultivation of crops such as rice and wheat. Second, MSP directly feeds into food inflation by forming a floor for wholesale food prices. Third, agriculture input costs such as electricity, diesel, pesticides and machinery also impact food inflation. Fourth, global food prices are important because of their influence on products that India imports and because international prices are one of the factors used to determine the MSPs of crops.
		+
		+
		+	'''5. RURAL WAGES'''
		+
		+	[[File: YoY % change in rural wage for men, 2008-18.jpg|YoY % change in rural wage for men, 2008-18 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-the-monsoon-affects-your-life/articleshow/68736569.cms  April 6, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	Since food inflation and rural wages are correlated, with a fall in inflation, rural wage growth too has slowed down.
		+
		+
		+	'''6. GDP'''
		+
		+	[[File: YoY % change in GDP at constant prices, 2008-19.jpg|YoY % change in GDP at constant prices, 2008-19 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-the-monsoon-affects-your-life/articleshow/68736569.cms  April 6, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	Largely due to the shrinking share (about 17-18%) of agriculture in India's GDP, the monsoon's direct impact on the GDP has weakened over the years.
		+
		+	==Monsoon and agriculture==
		+	===1986-2015===
		+	[[File: Monsoons in India.jpg|Monsoons in India: Geographical spread, monsoon and foodgrains, monsoon and vegetables, monsoon and fruits, monsoon and food prices and monsoon and farm GDP: 1986-2015 <br/>  Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=HOW-MONSOON-CONTROLS-OUR-DESTINY-18042016012015 ''The Times of India''], April 18, 2016|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, ' Monsoons in India: Geographical spread, monsoon and foodgrains, monsoon and vegetables, monsoon and fruits, monsoon and food prices and monsoon and farm GDP: 1986-2015'
		+
		+	===2004-09===
		+	[[File: moonsoon.png|Rain and grain: 2004-09; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=STATOISTICS-02062015008045 ''The Times of India''] , Jun 02 2015|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, ' Rain and grain: 2004-09  '
		+	===2006-16===
		+	See the graphic 'How monsoon affects farming, 2006-16'
		+
		+
		+	[[File: How monsoon affects farming, 2006-16.jpg|How monsoon affects farming, 2006-16; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=19_04_2017_019_026_006&type=P&artUrl=Agriculture-growth-rate-estimated-at-42-in-2016-19042017019026&eid=31808 The Times of India], April 19, 2017|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	= Monsoon break=
		+	==Definition==
		+	A monsoon break — a period when rain activity comes to a stop in most of central India, the region where the monsoon trough is formed — is a common occurrence during the season. “The monsoon has been active without a break since mid-June. This does not happen often and is a reason why the rains were higher than the predicted 101% of LPA for July,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster. (By Amit Bhattacharya)
		+	== Monsoons without a break ==
		+	===2003-2010===
		+	''' Non-stop monsoon marches on '''
		+
		+	Amit Bhattacharya TNN
		+
		+	[[File: monsoons1.jpg| Monsoons without a break, 2003-2010 |frame|500px]]
		+	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2013/08/16&PageLabel=7&EntityId=Ar00702&ViewMode=HTML The Times of India] 2013/08/16
		+
		+	One or two periods of a break in monsoon — defined as three straight days of very low rain activity across central India — are common during the rainy season. Since 2000, there have only been three years when there was no monsoon break. And all three years coincided with plentiful rains.
		+
		+	“Two months of monsoon activity without a break is rather rare. It’s an indication of agood monsoon,” said M Rajeevan, senior weather scientist at the earth sciences ministry.
−	NEW DELHI: A young woman has moved the Delhi high court accusing a Delhi police officer of having raped her over the last three years on the false assurance of marriage and sought a CBI probe into the case.	+	At least four factors have worked in favour of the monsoon in 2013. The first good sign was an absence of El Nino — an anomalous rise in ocean surface temperatures in the east Pacific that is linked to monsoon failure in India.
−	==Live-in partner raped her for two years==	+	Currently, weak La Nina conditions exist in the Pacific, which is the opposite of El Nino and is known to help the monsoon here.
−	''' Man held after woman cries rape '''	+
−	New Delhi: TNN [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Man-held-after-woman-cries-rape-05072014009017 The Times of India] Jul 05 2014	+	“Then, typhoons breaking out over the south Pacific this season have also helped because these have generally moved in a direction that reinforces the Indian monsoon. This is consistent with the weak La Nina conditions,” said Rajeevan.
−	A 26-year-old woman who worked as an actor in a theatre group has alleged that she was raped for the past two years by her male friend on the pretext of marriage. The man has been arrested. A case of rape has been registered	+	More importantly, what has helped sustain the rains — and distribute it more or less evenly across the region — has been a series of low pressure formations over the Bay of Bengal that have travelled westwards at regular intervals.
−	Police said the 28-year-old man used to stay with the woman at a rented house in east Delhi’s Jagatpuri area. She alleged that the man kept on making excuses of not marrying her for the past few months and had even planned to run away.	+	“There have been an unusually high number of low pressure systems, along with cyclonic circulation over land. These have nurtured the monsoon this year, especially in the interior regions of south and central India,” said Pai.
−	==He raped her every week or fortnight but later refused to marry her==	+
−	''' Delhi Police official booked for rape '''	+
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Delhi-Police-official-booked-for-rape/articleshow/30111279.cms  IANS] | Feb 9, 2014	+	Lastly, Pai said a strong Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon first helped accelerate the rain coverage over the country, and also brought good rains over the west coast.
−	NEW DELHI: A Delhi Police assistant sub-inspector was booked for raping and making video clip of a woman.	+	=Monsoons in Chennai=
		+	==2007-2018==
		+	[[File: Rain Chennai got from the Southwest monsoon, 2007-2018.jpg|Rain Chennai got from the Southwest monsoon, 2007-2018 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/southwest-monsoon-hands-parched-city-a-lifeline-just/articleshow/70402793.cms  U Tejonmayam, July 27, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	On the order of additional chief metropolitan magistrate Tarun Yogesh, police lodged a First Information Report (FIR) last week against ASI Varun Jha on charges of raping and criminally intimidating the woman.
−	Considering the gravity of allegations against a police official, the court said the case be investigated by an officer of the rank of an Inspector, preferably a woman officer, and directed that the probe be carried out under the direct supervision of the assistant commissioner of police (ACP) concerned.	+	'''See graphic''':
−	In her complaint, the woman alleged that she met Jha about three years back and the two became friendly. She said on the promise of marrying her, the police official established a physical relationship by forcing her, despite her objection.	+	''Rain Chennai got from the Southwest monsoon, 2007-2018''
−	"Thereafter, Jha continued raping her every week or fortnight upon false promise of marrying her," the woman said in her complaint. Later, Jha refused to marry her.	+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
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		+	[[Category:Pages with broken file links|MONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
−	She said Jha made a video clip of their relationship on a mobile phone. He threatened to show the recording to her family if she tried to force him into marriage.	+	=Monsoons in Punjab, Haryana=
		+	==1980- 2010==
		+	[[File: mosoon HP2.jpg| Monsoons in Punjab, Haryana: 1980- 2010    |frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, ' Monsoons in Punjab, Haryana: 1980- 2010  '
		+	==1999-2014==
		+	[[File: mosoon HP.jpg| Monsoons in Punjab, Haryana: 1999-2014 |frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, ' Monsoons in Punjab, Haryana: 1999-2014  '
−	== She had sexual intercourse under the promise of marriage==	+	''' 16-year trend of poor monsoon in Punjab, Haryana '''
−	''' Court acquits man accused of rape '''	+
		+	Amit Bhattacharya
	New Delhi		New Delhi
−	TIMES NEWS NETWORK	+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=16-year-trend-of-poor-monsoon-in-Punjab-22092014001068 The Times of India ] Sep 22 2014
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Court-acquits-man-accused-of-rape-19062014005046  ''The Times of India''] Jun 19 2014	+	India's bread basket states of Punjab and Haryana received just around half the normal rainfall this monsoon season. But more worryingly , this year's rain deficit is not an isolated event. The two key agricultural states have been getting below par rainfall for the past 16 years.
−	A trial court has acquitted a man accused of raping a woman after promising to marry her.	+	Met department figures reveal Punjab has seen above normal monsoon rainfall in just two years since 1999. The last time that happened was seven monsoons ago, in 2008.The stats are similar for Haryana, where rains have been above normal in just four of the last 16 monsoons.
−	The court held that the woman’s own statement proved that she had sexual intercourse with accused Puneet with her free will though under the promise of marriage.	+
−	== Kalka man rapes  girl on the pretext of marriage ==	+
−	Kalka man rapes and blackmails 25-year-old	+
−	TNN | Jun 28, 2013	+	Experts are divided over why rains have been consistently failing in the region but the trend has dire implications for agriculture, which relies heavily on groundwater. The two states are among the most exploited regions in the world for groundwater.
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chandigarh/Kalka-man-rapes-and-blackmails-25-year-old/articleshow/20807718.cms The Times of India ]	+	Deficient rains add another dimension to the crisis.Groundwater mainly de pends on rainfall for recharge. So, less rain means less groundwater availability .A failed monsoon also means farmers draw more ground water to irrigate their crops, particularly paddy , accelerating the fall of the water table.
−	CHANDIGARH: A 25-year-old girl from Sector 40 was raped and blackmailed by a Kalka resident who threatened her with the leaking of an objectionable MMS.	+	At TOI's request, Prof Krishna AchutaRao from IIT Delhi's Centre for Atmospheric Sciences plotted the annual and seasonal rainfall in the two states since 1980.The rain stats were obtained from the India Meteorological Department. A linear graph reveals a disturbing trend of decreasing rains in the bread basket of India. It shows average annual rainfall in Punjab falling during this period from just over 800mm in 1980 to less than 600mm in 2014 — a drop of roughly 200mm. Haryana’s annual average shows a similar drop, from around 780mm in 1980 to less than 580mm at present.
−	Police said Chetan '''developed a physical relationship with the girl on the pretext of marriage and filmed her.''' When the victim talked to him about marriage after four months, he refused and stopped taking her calls.	+	For monsoon season rainfall, Punjab has seen a drop of nearly 120mm, from an average of around 600mm in 1980 to roughly 480mm this year.
−	== Railway Minister’s son and the actress==	+
−	''' Railway Minister Sadananda Gowda’s son Kartik faces arrest over rape charge '''	+
−	[http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/railway-minister-sadananda-gowda-says-son-falsely-implicated-in-rape-case/ Express News Service | Kochi | August 29, 2014]	+	In Haryana, it’s down from more than 600mm to around 470mm during the same 35year period.
−	A Kannada actress, whom  Railway Minister D V Sadananda Gowda’s son Karthik Gowda had been courting for the four previous months, actress accused 28-year-old Karthik of marrying and dumping her after his family objected to their relationship.	+	“The long term decrease in rainfall is apparent from the graph,” says AchutaRao, “although the rain statistics for the 1980s show very high variation.” But what’s not so apparent is the cause of the decline.
−	The 27-year-old actress filed her complaint hours after Karthik, the only son of the Railway Minister, got engaged to a girl of his mother Datty Gowda’s choice, a businessman’s daughter from Kodagu district of Karnataka, where Sadananda Gowda’s wife also hails from, [a day before the actress made the allegation].	+	D Sivananda Pai, head of long range forecasting at IMD Pune, believes the drop is part of natural variability which will get reversed in time.
−	At a press conference, the actress made an appeal to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come to her assistance. The actress and her family members have said that the Railway Minister’s son was keen to marry her but all such plans were doused by his family a week ago. [Contradiction: Was he ‘keen to marry her’ or did he ‘marry and dump her’?]	+	“Indian monsoon is passing through a low rainfall epoch since the 1990s. The drop in rainfall in this region could be part of that phenom enon,“ says Pai.
−	She said Karthik took her to his family home in Mangalore in June this year and tied a thread around her neck on June 5 signifying a marriage. He introduced her to his friends as his wife, she claimed.	+	The story may not be that straightforward, says AchutaRao, who is coordinating multi-agency research into the Indian monsoon.
−	==Mumbai: Crying rape after consensual sex==	+
−	''' `Woman can't cry rape after consensual sex' '''	+
−	Rebecca Samervel [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Woman-cant-cry-rape-after-consensual-sex-30122014016011 ''The Times of India''] Dec 30 2014	+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
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−	Mum Court Acquits Accused After Woman's U-Turn	+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
−	A sessions court recently acquitted a man of charges of rape under the pretext of marriage, taking into consideration the 36-year-old complainant's matured age and her marital status.	+	=Monsoon/ water cycle=
−	“Obviously , a married lady , a matured woman having two children with her own consent keeps sexual relations with the accused at various times, therefore ingredients of Section 375 (rape) of IPC are not attracted,“ additional sessions judge Shaida Razvi said in her six-page detailed judgment.	+	Let’s respect the water cycle
−	Interestingly, the woman had attributed the filing of the case to a “misunderstanding“, turned hostile in court and said during the trial that she did not want to proceed against the accused. But Razvi had said that even if the case is viewed on merit, the accused deserved an acquittal.	+	Amit Bhattacharya | TNN  2010
−	The case was registered on March 30, 2013. The woman claimed she knew the accused as they lived in the neighbourhood and that they had been meeting secretly for seven years as the man had a soft corner for her. She told police she was married and had two children, both now adults. She had separated from her husband in 2012 after a fight. Her daughter lived with her and the son stayed with her estranged husband.	+	Think of water and chances are you wouldn’t picture a farmer digging a tubewell. Most urban Indians can’t think beyond their own water woes — dry taps; waking up at odd hours to tank up for the day. Yet, 80% of all the water India uses goes into agriculture. But even so, 60% of our farmlands remain dependent on the rains. Just as water evaporates, it seems, so do the resources that go into water management in the countryside.
−	She alleged that on November 9, 2011 at around 10pm, the accused asked her over to his house. He asked her to marry him and have a sexual relationship with him. When she said she would think it over and was about to leave the house, he shut the door and forced himself on her. He assured her that he would marry her and requested her not to talk about it as it would affect his reputation. A few days later, the man took her to a lodge, put a mangalsutra around her neck, applied sindoor and said they were now married. He promised he would register the marriage too. After this, they had sex on several occasions at various guesthouses and lodges until February 2013. On February 18, 2013, she claimed that the accused took her to a flat and rented it claiming they were husband and wife. Despite living together, the accused did not formally marry her and went on giving her false assurances, she claimed, leading her to file the complaint.	+	The scale of this ‘evaporation’ is so massive it is surprising the issue hasn’t generated more public debate. Nothing illustrates this better than the money spent on canals. In the 15 year-period from 1991-92 to 2006-07, the government spent Rs 1.3 lakh crore on major and medium irrigation projects without achieving any net increase in the irrigated area!
−	The accused pleaded not guilty. The woman also did an about turn, telling the court that on November 4, 2011 it was she who had gone to the house of the accused and had sex with him willingly. The accused never had sex with her under false assurances.	+	If anything, India’s total canalirrigated area has decreased from 17,791,000 hectares in 1991-91, to 16,531,000 hectares in 2007-08, according to provisional figures released by the agriculture ministry. The story behind this dubious feat encapsulates almost everything that’s wrong with water planning and use in agriculture.
−	==Delhi: ‘No proof that consent given on promise to marry’ ==	+
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Court-frees-man-of-rape-charges-terms-it-youthful-eagerness/articleshow/50670020.cms PTI | Jan 21, 2016]]	+
−	''' Court frees man of rape charges, terms it 'youthful eagerness' '''	+	Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator for South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, should know. Last year, he co-authored a paper that contained exactly those startling statistics. He says it’s not about too few new canals but about “many old ones have stopped functioning, at least partially, due to siltation, lack of maintenance and faulty assumptions of water use. Then there are water management and sharing issues. Often there’s intensive water use in upstream areas which leaves no water at the tail-ends.”
−	A Delhi court has acquitted a rape accused saying he had consensual intimate relations in "youthful eagerness".A Delhi court has acquitted a rape accused saying he had consensual intimate relations in "youthful eagerness".	+	Thakkar says it boils down to bad investment decisions. “The government keeps pushing for big irrigation projects without taking care of the existing ones, which in itself is a huge task. According to a 2005 World Bank report, the annual maintenance bill for India’s canal network comes to around Rs 17,000 crore. Less than 10% of that money is available,” he says.
−	NEW DELHI: A Delhi court has acquitted a man of the charges of raping a woman on false pretext of marriage observing that the two, being in the prime of their youth, had consensual intimate relations in "youthful eagerness".	+	Experts lament that new irrigation projects often fail to take into account the larger hydrological processes they would affect. They also pay little attention to water-use patterns. This has led to river basins such as the Krishna becoming over-irrigated.
−	Additional sessions judge Virender Bhatt, while acquitting Haryana resident Vikul Bakshi on the basis of the victim's "contradictory and inconsistent" statements, said the prosecution failed to prove charges against the accused.	+	Planning Commission member Mihir Shah calls such policy practices “hydroschizophrenia (or) a schizophrenic view of an indivisible resource like water, failing to recognize the unity and integrity of the hydrologic cycle.”
−	"It appears that the two, being in the prime of their youth, were having sexual relations with each other in youthful eagerness and nothing else," the court said.	+	Shah elaborates: “It’s a strange situation. Water management in villages comes under two ministries — rural development ministry and ministry of water resources. Often the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing.”
−	It further said, "There is no evidence on record to suggest that the prosecutrix had given her consent to physical relations with the accused solely on the latter's promise to marry her or that he was having knowledge that she consented to physical relations with him only on promise to marry her."	+	Both Shah and Thakkar say the first step in dealing with the crisis is accepting ground realities. “While huge amounts are spent on canal systems, groundwater has emerged as the dominant method of irrigation,” says Thakkar. The latest official figures show that more than 60% of India’s 62 million irrigated hectares is fed by groundwater.
−	The judge said the consent of the victim to establish physical relations with the accused appears to be voluntary and uninfluenced by any promise or assurance.	+	With no regulation, this has obvious perils. In August, two independent studies used satellite data from GRACE or the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment to show that northern India was losing more groundwater than anywhere else in the world except for the Arctic ice sheets. One of the studies put the annual net groundwater loss in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan at 109 cubic km, which is roughly equivalent to 109 billion tonnes. The water table has dropped dramatically in many areas and this is one of main problems Indian agriculture faces today.
−	According to prosecution, the woman had lodged a case against Vikul under sections 376 (rape) and 506 (criminal intimidation) of IPC alleging that the accused forced upon her twice against her consent on false pretext of marriage and threatened to defame her if she insisted upon marrying her.	+	Thakkar identifies four urgent policy measures: “Ensure that our old water recharge systems are sustained and enhanced, develop new recharge systems and harvest water where it falls, regulate groundwater use and, lastly, massively promote conservation methods like drip irrigation and rice intensification.”
−	However, relying on the messages exchanged between them on social networking sites, the court said it "clearly indicates that the prosecutrix herself was eager to have sexual relation with the accused and she was not doing so on any promise of marriage with him."	+	Shah, who has been asked by the Prime Minister to write a paper for the National Development Council on a holistic water policy, says it's possible for agriculture to grow even as water use falls. “In Australia, water consumption in agriculture has reduced by 30% in the past 20 years. If they can do it, so can we,” he says.
−	The court said the perusal of these messages show that these are not normal routine messages and the woman and the accused have been discussing the manner in which they would enjoy the intimate act.	+	But for that to happen, water policy has to become participatory. “The irrigation department, which is managed by civil engineers, needs to recruit people managers who understand local needs and sentiments,” concludes Shah.
−	"Hence these messages demonstrate that the prosecutrix was a consenting partner to physical relations with the accused and she herself had been eager to enjoy sex with him and the plan to have sexual encounter December 11, 2014 had been made well in advance and it was not spontaneous," it said.	+	It will make all the difference to a thirsty nation and parched fields.
−	==IPS officer ‘raped’ her in hotel after promising to marry==	+	TOTAL AREA IRRIGATED BY CANALS 1991-92: 17.8 mn hectares 2006-07: 16.8 mn hectares Amount spent on irrigation projects from 1991-92 to 2006-07: Rs 1.3 lakh crore
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Girl-raped-to-avenge-poll-defeat-ends-life-27122015018046 The Times of India]	+
−	Maha IPS officer booked for rape	+	INFLATION IN IRRIGATION Nagarjunasagar project (AP) Original cost (pre-fifth Plan):
−	A Maharashtra cadre IPS officer has been booked in MP for allegedly raping an UPSC aspirant on pretext of marriage, police said on Friday. According to a complaint filed by the Jabalpur-based victim, 2013 batch IPS officer Lohit Matani raped her at a hotel in Tukoganj area in August after promising to marry her.	+	Rs 91.12cr Latest estimates*: Rs 1,184cr Increase: 1299%
−	==’Prof. raped her at 5-star hotel on pretext of marriage ‘ ==	+	Western Kosi canal (Bihar) Original cost: Rs 13.49cr Latest estimates: Rs 904cr Increase: 6701%
−	[[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Ahmedabad-prof-rapes-woman-09012016009052 Jan 09 2016 : The Times of India]]	+
−		+	Barnar (Bihar) Original cost (in seventh Plan): Rs 8.03cr Latest estimates*: Rs 216.23cr Increase: 2689%
−	''' Ahmedabad  prof `rapes' woman  '''	+
−	New Delhi:	+	* All ‘latest estimates’ as on 2003, according to Planning Commission document
		+	==Monsoon: floods==
−	TIMES NEWS NETWORK	+	''' Every monsoon means flood of bad news '''
		+	Shobhan Saxena | TNN  2010
		+	In the great plains of India, there is nothing romantic about the monsoon. People’s fate depends on the monsoon’s mood swings. If it fails to keep its date with the country, there is drought. If it’s over generous, the floods cause death and destruction. Even when it’s “normal”, some river somewhere exceeds the danger mark and kills a few hundred people. After the skies clear and the water recedes, armies of mosquitoes and bugs launch attacks. Millions fall prey with chills, cramps, fever. In this part of the world, drought, deluge and death are as much an annual phenomenon as the monsoon.
		+	Bangladesh may be famous for its notorious floods, but India is not far behind. Every year, the monsoon floods leave a trail of destruction in India. Roughly 20% of deaths caused by flooding worldwide occur here; some 30 million people are evacuated every year. Every year witnesses an “unprecedented flood”. Every other year the “worst flood in living memory” leaves scores dead. Is India becoming ever more vulnerable to monsoon fury?
−	A professor with a prestigious institute in Ahmedabad has been accused of allegedly raping a woman at a five-star hotel in New Delhi on the pretext of marrying her.	+	No, say Vinod K Sharma and A D Kaushik of the National Centre for Disaster Management in a recent paper on floods in India. They argue that states did not appear quite as vulnerable as before because there was less developmental activity and population pressure. “However, in the present time, unabated population and high rate of developmental activities forced on the occupation of flood plains has made the society highly vulnerable to flood losses,” they wrote.
−	Police said the incident occurred a year ago, but the woman approached them last we ek to lodge a complaint.	+	In 2009, the monsoon was weak and deficient but it caused floods, deaths and displacement in Orissa, Kerala, Karnataka, Gujarat and the north-eastern states. In 2008, the monsoon was normal, but Bihar faced the worst flood crisis ever as the Kosi breached its embankment, changed course and deluged several districts, leaving hundreds dead and three million homeless.
−	The 30-year-old woman, working with a city-based hardware company , said she became pregnant after the sexual assault. Later, the professor married her in a temple but without revealing the fact that he was already married and had a child from his first wife.	+	= ‘Normal’ monsoons=
		+	==2009-18: normalcy is a myth==
		+	[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']
−	A few days after their mar riage, the woman suspected him of having an affair. She la ter found that the professor was already married and his wife worked in the same institute as a faculty.
−	Police registered a case of rape, criminal intimidation and criminal conspiracy against him and his accomplices at Barakhamba police station.	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2009.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2009 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	==Scholar ‘rapes’ woman; 8 year relationship==	+
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=JNU-scholar-arrested-on-rape-charge-15092016005016  JNU scholar arrested on rape charge Sep 15 2016 : The Times of India (Delhi)]	+
−	A research scholar was arrested by Delhi Police for allegedly raping a 26-year-old woman on the pretext of marriage.	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2010.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2010 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	In her complaint, the woman had said that the man had been promising to marry her for the last eight years, but had refused to do so when her family members approached him.	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2011.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2011 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	Singh, who belongs to Madhya Pradesh, is pursuing PhD from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU). Earlier he used to stay at a hostel on the campus.	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2012.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2012 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	The woman said that she had met Singh when both of them were studying in Delhi University in 2008. The woman said that Singh had also taken money from her, which he did not return claiming he would repay her after marriage. However, for the last few months Singh had been rejecting her calls and refused to speak to her. Police said that a case under Section 376 of IPC (rape) was registered based on the complaint filed by the woman on Tuesday night and Singh was arrested within 24 hours.	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2013.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2013 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	=Refusal to give apartment/ gifts is called rape=	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2014.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2014 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	==Five-year-old affair becomes rape when lover does not give her an apartment==	+
−	''' Air hostess files rape charge '''	+
−	Sanjay Yadav, TNN | Oct 13, 2013	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2015.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2015 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−		+
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/gurgaon/Air-hostess-files-rape-charge/articleshow/24063825.cms?intenttarget=no The Times of India]	+
−	GURGAON: A 48-year-old property dealer has been arrested in Palam Vihar for allegedly raping a 29-year-old air hostess, who was a tenant in his house.	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2016.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2016 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	The victim claimed that she trusted her landlord, Rajiv Bagga, when he got intimate with her and promised to marry her. A source said that Bagga was already married twice and the victim had been involved with him since 2008. She had pleaded with him to marry her earlier but he had calmed her with the promise of gifting her a flat. Some days ago, when she got to know that the promised flat had already been sold by Bagga, she felt duped.	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2017.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2017 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	==Criminal raped her for 4 years, lured her with gold, clothes and promises of marriage==	+
−	''In most countries she would be called a gangster's moll or mistress. In India she is called a 'rape survivor.' ''	+
−	Mahanand raped me for 4 years, says victim	+	[[File: The monsoon in India in 2018.jpg|The monsoon in India in 2018 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	Preetu Nair & Rajeshree Nagarsekar, TNN May 23, 2009, 04.21am IST	+	[[File: Sub-divisions where the monsoon failed in at least five years during the period 2009-18.jpg|Sub-divisions where the monsoon failed in at least five years during the period 2009-18 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−		+	[[File: Sub-divisions where rainfall exceeded the ‘norm’ in at least five years during the period 2009-18.jpg|Sub-divisions where rainfall exceeded the ‘norm’ in at least five years during the period 2009-18 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-normal-monsoon-is-a-myth/articleshow/68900585.cms  February 12, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	[http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2009-05-23/goa/28203294_1_dupatta-killer-mahanand-naik-marriage-proposal The Times of India]	+
−	PANAJI: A 23-year-old rape survivor revealed that dupatta killer Mahanand Naik raped her everyday for four years and then lured her with gold, clothes and promises of marriage. When she objected, he threatened her, she alleged.
−	"For four years, he wouldn't allow me to talk to anyone. If I talked to a man, he would threaten me. Two years ago I got a marriage proposal from Ponda. Mahanand went to the boy and told him that I am his girl', thereby destroying my marriage prospects," revealed [name concealed],.	+	The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said the country is likely to have a ‘near normal’ monsoon this year at 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) -- an encouraging signal for farmers and the overall economy.
−	Interestingly, Mahanand never beat her or tried to kill her. On the contrary, he lured her with promises of marriage, jewellery and clothes. "He gifted me clothes, gold jewellery and also promised to marry me. I had no option but to believe him as I had no one to turn to for help," she said.	+	A normal monsoon is considered to be 96-104% of the LPA of 89 cm for the entire four-month season beginning June to September. Above-normal is 104-110%, below-normal is 90-96% and deficient (drought) is below 90%. LPA is defined as the average annual rainfall over a 50-year period between 1951 and 2000.
−	=Refusal to give/ continue employment later called rape=	+	Of the past 10 years, India's crucial monsoon rain has been below normal in six years. IMD divides the country into 36 meteorological sub-divisions, mostly corresponding with state boundaries, with bigger states being divided into 2 or 3 sub-divisions, based on climatological uniformity. In poor monsoon years, some 6-7 sub-divisions suffer more than others, the data shows. On the brighter side, two of India’s driest regions have received relatively good rains during this period.
−	==Consensual sex turns into rape on not getting the employment promised ==	+	'''A look at the monsoon pattern from 2009-2018:'''
−	''Court sees consent, frees rape accused ''	+
−	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/01/11&PageLabel=11&EntityId=Ar01105&ViewMode=HTML The Times of India ]	+	2009
−	New Delhi: A trial court has acquitted a man of raping a woman saying physical relations between them were maintained with the girl’s consent. “The fact that she stayed with the accused, fully knowing that he was staying alone and used to cook meals for him and they both lived as husband and wife, do bring us to the conclusion that she consented to physical relations,” the court said.	+	An El Nino year that saw the weakest monsoon and the worst drought in 37 years, in which 23 sub-divisions received deficient rains.
−	Additional sessions judge Yogesh Khanna, however, convicted the man of wrongfully restraining and beating the woman. “The bare fact the prosecutrix knew that the accused is a married man and, (knowing she cannot marry him) yet continued to stay with him, making physical relations and not filing any police complaint shows that she had consented to such relations.” The accused was arrested after the woman, a cook, alleged that since September 2011, while she was living with him at his south Delhi flat, she was raped on several occasions by the accused on the assurance of getting her employed soon. TNN	+	2010
−	==He raped her 16 times in five years but did not give her a film role ==	+
−	''In other countries this is called the 'casting couch' ''	+
−	[[File: MadhurPreeti.jpg| Madhur Bhandarkar (left) and Preeti Jain |frame|500px]]	+
−	Preeti Jain 'rape' case: Madhur Bhandarkar gets relief after 9 years	+	2010 was a vast improvement from the previous year; 14 subdivisions (in blue) had excess rainfall.
−	New Delhi, Mon Nov 05 2012	+	2011
−	[http://www.indianexpress.com/news/preeti-jain-rape-case-madhur-bhandarkar-gets-relief-after-9-years/1026981/ IndianExpress]	+	Probably the best monsoon year of this period with the most well-distributed rainfall. No subdivision apart from the northeast (in red) had deficient rains.
−	The Supreme Court today quashed the ongoing criminal proceedings of Bollywood film director Madhur Bhandarkar on allegations of rape levelled by actress Preeti Jain.	+	2012
−	The actress had lodged a complaint with the Versova police in July 2004 alleging that Bhandarkar had raped her 16 times between 1999 and 2004 on the pretext of casting her as actress in his films.	+	Monsoon came under the shadow of a warming Pacific although El Nino did not develop. Thirteen sub-divisions received deficient rains in 2012 and only Andaman & Nicobar Islands saw a surplus.
		+	2013
−	She alleged Bhandarkar promised to marry her and to cast her in his films, but he went back on his promises later.	+	The strongest monsoon of the period, with the earliest onset in decades over north India. Cloudbursts caused the deluge in Kedarnath, Uttarakhand. Swathes of blue across the country meant 14 regions received more rain than initially expected.
−	== Complaint Filed By Ex-Staffer After Sacking==	+
−	''' MNC director accused of rape '''	+
−	'' Company Says Complaint Filed By Ex-Staffer After Sacking ''
−	Rao Jaswant Singh &Sanjay Yadav TNN	+	2014
−	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/01/07&PageLabel=8&EntityId=Ar00800&ViewMode=HTML  The Times of India]	+	A drought year with monsoon hit by evolving El Nino conditions that didn't eventually form. After several years of poor monsoon, the northeast received normal rains, but 11 regions saw a deficit.
−	Gurgaon: A 32-year-old former employee of consultancy major Aon Hewitt has accused a director of the company of raping her inside his office chamber in the company’s Gurgaon office.
−	The woman, who was an operations manager at the company’s Noida branch but also spent time in the Gurgaon office, has alleged that the director often called her to his cabin and “indulged in activities which can be ''' defined as rape according to the new legislation”. ''' She also accused two other senior officials of calling her to their cabin and making her watch porn and molesting her.	+	2015
−	When contacted, an Aon Hewitt spokesperson said in a mailed response: “(The woman) was terminated from employment on December 3, 2013. Following a complaint received, Aon Hewitt conducted an internal investigation which found that she had not adhered to the rules, regulations and policies of the company.	+	An El Nino year that lead to the second straight drought year. Agriculture output dipped and water shortages abounded. Poor rains struck 17 sub-divisions, this included the west coast. Rajasthan, in blue, was the only area that got excess rains.
−	=Refusal to pay for sex later called rape=	+	2016
−	== Sex worker can't cry rape if denied money: SC==	+	First normal monsoon in three years saw good rains in central India. Agriculture output grew after a two-year lows . Four regions saw excess rainfall.
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=SC-Sex-worker-cant-cry-rape-if-denied-12102016011006  Dhananjay Mahapatra,  SC: Sex worker can't cry rape if denied money, Oct 12 2016 : The Times of India]	+	2017
−	New Delhi: Acquitting three persons of rape charges, the Supreme Court has ruled that a sex worker cannot lodge a sexual assault complaint against her customers if they refuse to pay .	+	It was a below-normal monsoon year with most of the north and parts of central India in rain shadow. Five sub-divisions saw excess rains, while more than two-thirds of India, or 25 sub-divisions, had normal rains.
−	A bench of Justices Pinaki Chandra Ghose and Amitava Roy said that though the evidence given by a woman alleging rape must get importance from the trial court, it could not be taken as “gospel truth“.	+	2018
−	“The evidence of prosecutrix must be examined as that of an injured witness whose presence at the spot is probable but it can never be presumed that her statement should always, without exception, be taken as gospel truth,“ the bench said.	+	2018 was the second below-normal monsoon year in a row. However, rains were better distributed than in 2017, with north India, for once, getting satisfactory rainfall. Twelve regions saw deficits. Kerala, however, saw excess rainfall which led to devastating floods.
−	The ruling came in a 20-year-old case from Bengaluru. A woman, working as a maid, had alleged that three persons abducted her in an auto, took her to a garage and repeatedly raped her.	+	'''Haryana, Punjab among worst-hit regions '''
−	The three accused had challenged a Karnataka high court order directing their prosecution. The SC bench examined the witness all over again and said, “Her conduct during the alleged ordeal is also unlike a victim of rape and betrays somewhat submissive and consensual disposition.“	+	Vidarbha makes news for farmer suicides but rains have failed in the sub-division in just 2 years over the past decade. The story is much bleaker in neighbouring Marathwada.
−	In her statement to the trial court, the woman had said that after the three accused dumped her, she went back to locate the garage where she was raped before lodging the complaint so as to enable her to give proper evidence about the crime.
−	The woman's roommate, however, spill ed the beans while deposing as a witness.She said the woman used to take financial help from the accused persons and, after completing her household work, used to indulge in prostitution at night. The roommate further told the court that the woman had approached the accused persons for Rs 1,000 which they declined to give.	+	Most subdivisions in the above list are invariably the hardest hit during weak monsoon years.
		+	Regions that received excess rains
−	When asked why she had lodged the complaint against the accused persons, the woman had said that it would have compelled them to pay the money she wanted.	+	Konkan and Goa, India’s second wettest sub-division had excess rains in four of the past 10 years, increasing the threat of floods, particularly in Mumbai.
−	The bench said, “This witness's version is plausible, and thus, fits in with the defence plea to demolish the prosecution case.“ Writing the judgment for the bench, Justice Roy said, “Her vengeful attitude in the facts and circumstances, as disclosed by her, if true, demonstrably evinces a conduct manifested by a feeling of frustration stoked by an intense feeling of deprivation of something expected, desired or promised.“	+	Surprisingly, two of India’s driest regions have clocked excess rainfall on most years since 2009. Average rainfall in West Rajasthan is just 263.2mm during June-Sept, making it the driest sub-division of India. Saurashtra and Kutch is at No. 4 (average rainfall 477.5mm).
−	Acquitting the three accused, Justices Ghose and Roy drew the conclusion, “We are of the unhesitant opinion that the prosecution has failed to prove the charge against the appellants to the hilt as obligated in law and thus, they are entitled to benefit of doubt.“	+	'''How accurate are weather forecasters? '''
−	='He raped me for several years/ months'=	+	IMD's forecast for 2019 directly challenges the prediction of India's only private sector weather forecaster, Skymet, which is slightly more pessimistic with a forecast of 93%. Both the IMD and Skymet have hit the bull's eye an equal number of times in the last six years. IMD was off the mark in 2014, 2015 (which turned out to be drought years) and 2018, which narrowly escaped a drought.
−	==He raped her for seven months in hotel rooms in tourist resorts all over India==	+
−	''' 22-yr-old UP girl accuses IAS officer of raping her '''	+
−	TIMES NEWS NETWORK	+	==2019/ New norms==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL/2019/09/29&entity=Ar01111&sk=DDFA5373&mode=text  Vishwa.Mohan , Sep 29, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
−	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/01/27&PageLabel=8&EntityId=Ar00805&ViewMode=HTML The Times of India ]
−
−	Jaipur: A 22-year-old woman has lodged an FIR against IAS officer B B Mohanty, accusing him of raping and sexually exploiting her for seven months after promising to help her clear the civil services examination and later marry her.
−	The woman, who is from Uttar Pradesh and used to live in a Jaipur hostel, said the officer raped her for the first time at a flat occupied by him in the city on February 19 last year. She alleged that over the next few months Mohanty took her to several places — including Udaipur, Goa, Chennai and Bharatpur — where they stayed in hotels and he sexually exploited her.	+	Every year, the weather department benchmarks that season’s rainfall against a ‘normal’ derived from long period average (LPA) of 50 years. This has now been revised downward from 89 cm to 88 cm.
−	SHO Mahesh Nagar Ramavtar said the IAS officer took the woman to his flat on February 17 and molested her that day and then raped her on February 19.	+	“The LPA of 88 cm is the new normal. The India Meteorological Department will release its final monsoon report using this new normal,” Madhavan Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, told TOI. The IMD had arrived at the 89-cm figure based on average rainfall during 1951-2000 period. The new average figure of 88 cm is based on rainfall during 1961-2010 period, reflecting a decline in average rainfall in India.
−	[Three months before her present accusation,] in November [2013], '''the woman had accused the 52-year-old owner of her hostel of raping her. ''' Ramgopal Kumawat was arrested following the allegation. He is still in judicial custody.	+	''' ’19 monsoon set for ‘above normal’ tag '''
−	==Fashion model was raped in hotels on several occasions==	+
−	''' Mumbai model accuses senior IPS officer of rape '''	+
−	Nitasha Natu,TNN | Jul 24, 2014 [http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Mumbai-model-accuses-senior-IPS-officer-of-rape/articleshow/38976869.cms  ''The Times of India'']	+	The IMD has five categories to tell the ‘status’ of monsoon. Rainfall range of less than 90% of the LPA normal is considered ‘deficient’; 90-96% of the LPA is called ‘below normal’, 96-104% of the LPA is categorized as ‘normal’, 104-110% of the LPA as ‘above normal’ and more than 110% as ‘excess’.
		+	“The five categorisations will, however, remain the same. Only LPA has changed,” said the MoES secretary.
−	MUMBAI: A senior IPS (police) officer has been booked by Malwani police on charges of raping a model.	+	Rajeevan added that the 2019 monsoon was most likely to be ‘above normal’ as this year the country got more rain “because of positive Indian-Ocean Dipole (IOD)”. IOD is a sea surface warming phenomenon also called ‘El Nino of the Indian Ocean’. On the new LPA normal, he said the IMD had already started using it for its daily rainfall report. “It changes the ‘normal’ roughly every 10 years or so and starts using it whenever the data of all meteorological stations get updated using the new 50-year period,” said Rajeevan.
−	The model has complained that she used to visit Paraskar, when he was posted in the north region, for some work for which she needed his help. She has alleged that she was taken to a hotel in Malwani where she was raped on several occasions.	+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
−	===The model sought notoriety===	+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
−	''' Rape allegation against Maharashtra top cop Sunil Paraskar is for 'publicity': Model's ex-lawyer '''	+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:Pages with broken file links|MONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/Rape-allegation-against-Maharashtra-top-cop-Sunil-Paraskar-is-for-publicity-Models-ex-lawyer/articleshow/39690642.cms PTI] | Aug 5, 2014	+	=Number of rainy days…=
		+	==…in a typical June, July or August==
−	A former lawyer of the alleged victim, a model-turned-actress, has said she never told him about the rape and claimed she brought up the charge to gain publicity to enter a reality show.	+	[[File: Average monsoon rainfall and number of rainy days in major Indian cities, and towns with the highest rainfall in India..jpg|Average monsoon rainfall and number of rainy days in major Indian cities, and towns with the highest rainfall in India, in June, July, August  <br/>  Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=15_07_2015_011_049_002&type=P&artUrl=RAINY-DAYS-15072015011049&eid=31808 ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+	See graphic, ' Average monsoon rainfall and number of rainy days in major Indian cities, and towns with the highest rainfall in India, in June, July, August  '
		+	==…in June, July and August, 2015==
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=STATOISTICS-MONSOON-TRAIL-30052015008020 ''The Times of India''], May 30 2015
−	"I have submitted the messages exchanged between me and the victim through SMSs and WhatsApp. After going through these messages, it will be clear that she (the model) filed the case against DIG Paraskar purely for publicity so that she gets a place in a reality show," Rizwan Siddiqui, who earlier represented the model, has told the police.
−	== Man rapes friend for nine years==	+	[[File: Share of monsoon rains, month-wise and daily mean rainfall across India in June, 2015.jpg|Share of monsoon rains, month-wise and daily mean rainfall across India in June, 2015; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Gallery.aspx?id=01_07_2015_012_029_002&type=P&artUrl=MONSOON-16-SURPLUS-IN-JUNE-01072015012029&eid=31808 ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	Man rapes friend for nine years; case registered	+
−	Press Trust of India | Posted on Jul 21, 2013	+	India receives most of the rainfall in four monsoonal months-June, July, August and September. The Met department defines normal monsoon to be 96 to 104% of the long period average, usually the average monsoon over 30 years. If the rainfall deficiency is more than 10%, it would typically be called a drought year. Last year's monsoon was deficient by 12%. This year's monsoon rainfall is predicted to be 93% of the average. If this year's monsoon deficiency crosses 10%, it will be one more year of drought, making it two successive years of drought, an event that has happened only three times in the past 113 years (1904-05, 1965-66 and 1986-87). In 1917, monsoon exceeded normal by the highest percentage (22.9) in 113 years. In 1918, monsoon was deficient by 24.9%, the highest deficiency for this period
−	[http://ibnlive.in.com/news/man-rapes-friend-for-nine-years-case-registered/408327-3.html IBNlive]	+	= ‘Neutral’ years=
		+	==1997-2017: vis-à-vis El Nino, La Nina years==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F04%2F17&entity=Ar01416&sk=ED216F54&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, In ‘neutral’ years, monsoon isn’t always normal, April 17, 2018: ''The Times of India’']
−	A forty-year-old woman was allegedly raped and blackmailed by a loan agent-cum-trader for nine years in Hasanpura area of the city, police said on Sunday.	+	[[File: Monsoon rainfall in India during El Nino, La Nina and ‘neutral’ years, 1997-2017.jpg|Monsoon rainfall in India during El Nino, La Nina and ‘neutral’ years, 1997-2017 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F04%2F17&entity=Ar01416&sk=ED216F54&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, In ‘neutral’ years, monsoon isn’t always normal, April 17, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	Victim living alone in the city had clearly mentioned that she had earlier friendship with the accused for nine years, and he used to visit her home too.	+	Neither El Nino nor La Nina is expected to impact the monsoon this year, the met department said on Monday. While such ‘neutral’ years are generally associated with normal rainfall, a look at the past 21-year record shows a wide variation in monsoon’s performance.
−	Accused was working as loan agent and was paying good interests on her money lent to customers, but all of sudden his intention turned bad, and '''committed rape on a number of occasions in the city hotels and her home''', SHO said.	+	From 1997 to 2017, there were 10 neutral years during which the monsoon varied between 88% of average (drought) to 106% (above normal). On the whole, the mean monsoon performance during these neutral years was 97.5% of the long period average (LPA), which is in the lower end of the normal range (96%- 104%) — indicating that monsoons have been generally depressed in the current era.
−	The accused had blackmail her with obscene pictures, police said, adding he had stolen some stamp papers and cheques from her house also.	+	The mean monsoon output in the neutral years, however, is way above that of El Nino years (86%) and below the mean for La Nina years (99%). These differences highlight the strong connection of the Indian monsoon with El Nino and La Nina, which are opposite conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
−	==He raped her for six years==	+	El Nino is an abnormal warming of surface waters in the east and central equatorial Pacific which negatively impacts the monsoon. La Nina is the opposite — an abnormal cooling of waters that aids the monsoon. As the 21-year data shows, there are years when this relationship doesn’t hold.
−	In another case, a 57-year-old CEO of a tour operator company was arrested by city police for allegedly raping his live-in partner. She accused her partner of '''raping her for six years''' on the pretext of marriage. The complainant, a 42-year-old owner of a spa-cum-salon in the city, had alleged that the CEO had shown her a fake divorce certificate to lure her. The accused, who was sent in judicial custody, was granted bail after some days.	+
−	==Man rapes woman colleague for 3 yrs==	+
−	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/01/06&PageLabel=12&EntityId=Ar01201&ViewMode=HTML The Times of India]	+
−	A24-year-old woman from Rajkot had allegedly been raped for three years by her colleague in different parts of Gujarat on the promise of marriage. The woman is a diploma engineer and was in Surat since 2010. She was an employee of an online marketing firm for which Verma, too, worked. Her family stays in Rajkot. The woman was allegedly raped by the accused in hotels near Rajkot and other areas of the city. TNN	+	However, the monsoon’s performance varies significantly during the neutral years as well. These variations are a result of many other local and large-scale factors. Among the large scale factors is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is expected to be weakly negative during the second half of this year’s monsoon. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase is seen to generally aid the monsoon while a negative phase could depress rains.
−	==He raped her for two and a half years==	+
−	On June 11 a woman, who worked as a software engineer in a Gurgaon-based company, accused her live-in partner of '''raping her for two and a half years''' on the pretext of marrying her. The victim was previously married to another man but left him to be with the accused and has a nine-month-old child from the relationship. Sector 40 police lodged an FIR and arrested the accused, who was later sent in judicial custody.	+
−	==They raped her three times a year ago==	+
−	''' Woman alleges repeated rape by AAP candidate and associates '''	+
−		+
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/Woman-alleges-repeated-rape-by-AAP-candidate-and-associates/articleshow/32796519.cms  PTI] | Mar 27, 2014	+
−	GWALIOR: A 30-year-old woman has filed a complaint alleging that Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidate from Guna-Shivpuri Lok Sabha seat and three office bearers allegedly raped her at least three times over a period of more than a year, about a year ago.	+	Another highly unpredictable condition with sharp, although short, impacts on rainfall is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a periodic eastward moving weather disturbance close to the equator. MJOs can depress or enhance rainfall for a week or two, depending on their position and strength. Slow-moving or stationary MJOs can have longer impacts. A well-positioned MJO can invigorate the monsoon while its absence tends to prolong breaks in monsoon rains. MJOs, however, are very hard to predict.
−	Additional superintendent of police (ASP) Virendra Jain said that as per ''Supreme Court guidelines'' if an incident of rape is ''more than three months old, '' then an FIR in the matter would be filed only after a probe, which the police has initiated.	+	Finally, the distribution and intensity of monsoon rains comes down to the number of low-pressure systems and depressions coming inland from the Bay of Bengal. During active monsoon periods, the frequency of these systems are usually high. On some occasions, even winds from the northwest (western disturbances) affect rainfall.
−	== ‘She was raped by him on several occasions'==	+	The interplay of all these factors make monsoon forecasting a highly hazardous profession.
−	''' Man freed of rape charge ''' ‘	+
−	[http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-10-12/delhi/42967706_1_husband-false-promise-false-complaint The Times of India ] TNN Oct 12, 2013	+	===In 2015===
		+	[[File: Rainfall, June1-August 16, 2015.jpg|Rainfall, June 1-August 16, 2015; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=17_08_2015_011_016_007&type=P&artUrl=Kharif-sowing-better-this-yr-17082015011016&eid=31808 ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	A trial court has acquitted a man, accused of assaulting a New Zealand-based divorcee and raping her on the false promise of marrying her, saying the woman "voluntarily" had sexual relations with him as she was in love and wanted to marry him.	+	'''See graphic''':
−	Police arrested the man in March 2013. The woman had alleged that she was raped by him on several occasions since April 2011 on the false promise of marriage after she got divorce from her Indian husband in September 2010. The woman had said that she met the accused through her ex-husband in New Zealand and they both became friends. "The accused used to visit her house since 2009.	+	''Rainfall, June 1-August 16, 2015''
−	"It is, therefore, beyond any shadow of doubt that the victim indulged in sexual intercourse with the accused voluntarily as she was in love with him and wanted to marry him. The sexual intercourse between the two was with her consent," the court said	+	=Pre-monsoon rainfall=
−	=Rape allegation on being caught ''In flagrante delicto''=	+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
−	== Police inspector rapes woman for one month==	+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
−	''In other countries this is called 'In flagrante delicto' ''	+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
−	'''SHO 'rapes' junior's wife, probe ordered'''	+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
−	Purusharth Aradhak, TNN | Jul 15, 2013	+	==2009-19==
		+	[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/country-sees-2nd-driest-pre-monsoon-since-54/articleshow/69615260.cms  Neha Madaan, June 2, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
		+	[[File: Pre-monsoon rainfall in India- 2009-19.jpg|Pre-monsoon rainfall in India: 2009-19 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/country-sees-2nd-driest-pre-monsoon-since-54/articleshow/69615260.cms  Neha Madaan, June 2, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/noida/SHO-rapes-juniors-wife-probe-ordered/articleshow/21077271.cms The Times of India]	+	See graphic, 'Pre-monsoon rainfall in India: 2009-19'
		+	==2019: India’s 2nd driest pre-monsoon since 1954==
		+	[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/country-sees-2nd-driest-pre-monsoon-since-54/articleshow/69615260.cms Neha Madaan, June 2, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
		+	Rains delayed, India sees 2nd driest pre-monsoon in 65 years
−	BULANDSHAHR: A police station in charge was caught raping a constable's wife inside the police station in Khurja on Sunday morning.	+	With the onset of monsoon around the corner and only 99mm of rainfall so far, the country is experiencing the second driest pre-monsoon spell in 65 years, India Meteorological Department (IMD) data shows.
		+	Since 1954 — when the country experienced 93.9mm of rainfall in the pre-monsoon season of March, April and May — showers have dipped below the three-figure mark only in 2009 (99mm), 2012 (the driest at 90.5mm) and 2019 (99mm).
−	The victim lodged a complaint with the police	+	The highest deficiency has been witnessed in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, Konkan-Goa, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry, among others.
−	The victim's husband is posted in the police lines. On Sunday at 5am, when he returned to his quarter in the police station, he allegedly found his wife and the station house in-charge in a compromising state. On seeing her husband, the victim screamed and ran towards him. She told him that '''the police inspector had been raping her for the last one month.'''	+	Parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, western Uttar Pradesh, north interior Karnataka, Telangana, and Rayalaseema (in Andhra Pradesh) also recorded deficient pre-monsoon rainfall, though it was better than what the entirety of Maharashtra experienced.
−	=Lovers' tiff/ anger/ intoxication leads to rape allegation=	+	Pulak Guhathakurta, head of Climate Application and User Interface at IMD’s Office of Climate Research and Services, told TOI that past research has revealed a trend of dipping premonsoon rainfall over the past century in western India, especially Maharashtra. “However, such a trend has not been observed across the entire country till now. This may have something to do with the shifting of the rainfall pattern,” Guhathakurta said.
−	== Rape alleged when girl feels cheated; retracted when they marry==	+
−	''' Mumbai couple bonded by love, hounded by rape law '''	+
−	Swati.Deshpande@timesgroup.com	+	He said pre-monsoon rains were mainly important for agriculture, groundwater recharge and to maintain soil moisture. "Pre-monsoon rains tend to allay some of the severe water shortage problem in a region. Even deficient pre-monsoon rainfall can go a long way in maintaining the soil moisture necessary for agriculture. Over the past 11 years, Maharashtra got most of its monsoon rainfall in just one or two months, with heavy to very heavy showers in short bursts. This poses a flood risk and also, much of the water is wasted," he explained.
−	Mumbai:	+
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Mumbai-couple-bonded-by-love-hounded-by-rape-21072014011027  The Times of India ] Jul 21 2014	+	"In the four regions of the country, the maximum premonsoon rainfall deficiency has been witnessed in the southern peninsula (-48% ), followed by northwest India (-29%), Central India (-17%) and east and northeast India (-12%). Parts of north Rajasthan, northern and central MP, southern UP, southern Punjab and Haryana, had good rains,” Anupam Kashyapi from IMD, Pune, said.
−	It's a case that underscores the legal perils that shadow consensual sex between teenagers. A girl from Mumbai recently filed a rape case against her boyfriend of years when she felt cheated by him. Now married, the couple is trying hard to get the case quashed.	+	= Monsoons in Mumbai=
		+	== ‘Extremely heavy’ rain days==
		+	===2009-19===
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIM/2019/09/29&entity=Ar01401&sk=1355AC52&mode=text  Richa Pinto , Sep 29, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
−	A bench of Justices V M Kanade and P D Kode, appeared increasingly incredulous as the young man's lawyer recounted the facts of the case. The Bombay HC last month gave him anticipatory bail, which was earlier denied by a sessions court.	+	[[File: ‘Extremely heavy’ rain days in Mumbai, 2009-19.jpg|‘Extremely heavy’ rain days in Mumbai, 2009-19 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIM/2019/09/29&entity=Ar01401&sk=1355AC52&mode=text  Richa Pinto , Sep 29, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	The girl and the boy , neighbours in Borivli, were dating for around six years. The couple had sexual relations in 2012. But this year, the relationship soured.	+	The city recorded as many as five “extremely heavy” rain days this monsoon, when over 200mm of downpour lashed the city within a 24-hour span and disrupted daily life. The numbers are worrisome—and worthy of Swedish 16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg’s attention when one considers that the eight preceding “extremely heavy” rain days occurred over a stretchedout period of a decade, from 2009 to 2018.
−	The girl (now 18) complained to her father that he was borrowing money from her -she even sold some of her mother's jewellery -and spending it on other girls. The girl and her father, along with a social worker, filed a police complaint against the boy on May 15. It said the boy had sex with her after promising to marry her -a statement that, as always, prompted the cops to invoke the rape charge against him.	+	“The overall trend in the last decade shows an increase in extreme heavy rainfall events not only in Mumbai but all over the country, which is an impact of climate change,” said R V Sharma, former deputy director general of IMD Mumbai.
		+	Mumbai’s Monsoon 2019 began on an unusual note: Rains arrived in the city on June 25—one of the most delayed onset dates in 45 years—against the traditional deadline of June 10. Moreover, it has been characterized by unusual weather patterns—one day saw a downpour of 350mm—that have been discussed at several levels, including BMC commissioner Pravin Pardeshi’s office during “debriefing” sessions for civic engineers.
−	But a week later, the Gujarati girl married the Marathi boy , saying she was still in love.	+	Weather scientists say rains have been “hyperactive” in 2019 but aren’t sure if this is a one-off occurrence or could become a pattern. K S Hosalikar, deputy director-general (western region), IMD, has another observation: On the five “extremely heavy” rainfall days, the downpour was restricted to a few hours. For instance, the city got 200mm of rain in the six hours between 11.30pm and 5.30am on July 2. On September 4, around 121mm of rain was recorded between 8.30am and 11.30am.
		+	“Most rain received this year were either in the ‘very heavy’ or ‘extremely heavy’ rainfall categories. At a time when we are talking of climate change and global warming, the first thing to occur is the increase in precipitation and that too in short spells, which we are seeing happen now,” he said.
−	The couple has realized ''' a rape charge is not easy to shake off and cannot be settled out of court,'''  with or without the court's consent. ''' Nor can courts quash it simply at their urging. '''	+	It is to escape the flooding caused by such intense downpours that 66-year-old Surindra Khubchandani moved from his flat in Jay Bharat society, Khar, to 15th Road, Santacruz. “Here, floodwaters drain out faster,” he said.
−	==Girl is intoxicated, alleges rape==	+
−	''' FALSE CASE - HC summons `rape' survivor '''	+
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=FALSE-CASE-HC-summons-rape-survivor-18052015006042  Abhinav Garg, ''The Times of India,'' May 18 2015 ]	+	As not many Mumbaikars can move homes like Khubchandani, the BMC has held brainstorming sessions on how to work around these intense downpours.
−	A woman who levelled rape allegations only to later claim that she did it under the influence of alcohol is now in the dock.	+	A special report on ‘Oceans and Cryosphere’ released by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that extreme sea level events that took place once in a century would occur every year by mid-century in several regions, increasing the risk of flooding in low-lying coastal cities.
		+	Akshay Deoras, a PhD student in the department of meteorology, University of Reading, UK, blamed “cyclonic circulations” around the city for the extremely heavy rainfall. Monsoon has been almost “hyperactive” this year, he said.
		+	Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, Meteorology And Climate Change of Skymet Weather Services, concurred: “This year saw an extreme weather event every month.”
−	The Delhi high court has asked the rape “victim“ to now appear before it, even as it granted interim protection from arrest to the accused.	+	In July, weather scientists noticed the building up of numerous weather systems affecting Maharashtra and particularly north Konkan (which includes Mumbai) and Goa. “Many low-pressure areas formed over the Bay of Bengal and traveled in the westerly direction while they usually travel northwest,” said Palawat.
−	According to the complaint, the victim was called by Kumar to his office in Rohini on the pretext of getting her a job. When she reached there, she was made to consume a soft drink laced with sedatives. The FIR stated that she became drowsy after which Kumar raped her. Later, when police produced her before a magistrate, the woman repeated her allegation but failed to specify if she was raped or subjected to sexual abuse. She only said Kumar forced her to drink alcohol and when she was back to her senses she was without clothes.	+	Former IMD official Sharma said while “breaks” in monsoon have been common, there was no long break this year. Sridhar Balasubramanian, associate professor, department of mechanical engineering and associate faculty IDP Climate Studies, IIT Bombay, said, “We cannot avoid extreme weather events but at least control the way water reaches the right source. Our cities are seeing increasing concretisation and that will affect the local cloud pattern. Soil is getting depleted and not able to hold the rainwater. The water therefore just runs down and unless the sun comes out, it evaporate.”
−	Even as police launched a hunt to nab the accused, the woman shifted her stand, moving an application in the court to reveal that sex with Kumar was  consensual and police were called under influence of alcohol. A shocked magistrate then asked her to approach the HC and seek quashing of the FIR against Kumar on this ground.	+	==2019: suburbs receive far more rain than central, southern Mumbai==
−	==Girl is called insane, gets angry, alleges rape==	+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIM%2F2019%2F08%2F17&entity=Ar00309&sk=B41DD337&mode=text  Richa Pinto, August 17, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
−	'''Man acquitted of rape charge ''' [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Man-acquitted-of-rape-charge-10052015006026 ''The Times of India'' May 10 2015]	+
−	A trial court has acquitted Samidul, a Jahangirpuri resident, of the charges of raping his 12-year-old cousin, saying the girl had lodged a false complaint.	+	[[File: 2019- Mumbai’s rain map, area-wise.jpg|2019: Mumbai’s rain map, area-wise <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIM%2F2019%2F08%2F17&entity=Ar00309&sk=B41DD337&mode=text  Richa Pinto, August 17, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	The court also noted that the minor's mother, a key witness, did not support the prosecution's case. It added that the '''medical report''' of the girl [/ evidence on record] '''did not suggest she was raped or sexually assaulted.''' “The girl deposed that because the accused used to call her insane, she had lodged the present complaint,“ additional sessions judge Gautam Manan said.	+	The monsoon has been marked by extreme rain days this year, with some areas of Mumbai recording over 400 mm of rainfall over 24 hours. But the pattern has not been uniform. Rain data from the onset of the rainy season till now shows that suburban areas like Vikrohli, Dindoshi, Kandivli, Borivli and Mulund have recorded the maximum rain in the city, while Mumbai’s central and southern parts have received less rain in comparison (see graphic).
−	==‘She was raped for 2 years by lawyer within court’s campus’==	+
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Need-law-against-false-rape-cases-12012016027038 Jan 12 2016 : The Times of India (Delhi)]	+
−	''' `Need law against false rape cases' '''	+	The weather bureau and climate experts said this has a lot to do with the topography and layout of the suburbs, like hills and large green areas, and the presence of water bodies. In comparison, they said, the island city has more built-up area and less green cover. Wind patterns, too, differ. “Climatologically also, city-side rainfall is less than in the suburbs. Besides, the other core reason for suburbs witnessing more rainfall is local topography. The Sanjay Gandhi National Park, the Aarey Milk Colony are all large expanses of green, the equivalents of which don’t exist in the island city. Then there are water bodies like Powai lake as well,” said K S Hosalikar, deputy director general (western region), India Meteorological Department.
−	New Delhi:	+	As a result, clouds are observed more towards the suburbs whenever there is a weather system over central India. “Hills influence weather and the Konkan belt is a perfect example of orographic enhancement of rainfall (orographic lift occurs when an air mass is forced from a low elevation to a higher elevation as it moves over rising terrain). In Mumbai’s case, hills such as those within the national park, although not as high as in the Western Ghats proper, massively enhance rainfall in the suburbs,” said Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist and doctoral student at the University of Reading, UK. “Enhancement is often visible when suburbs’ seasonal or sub-seasonal rainfall is compared to that of south Mumbai, which mostly has a flat terrain.”
−	TIMES NEWS NETWORK	+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
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		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
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		+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:Pages with broken file links|MONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+
		+	=Withdrawl of monsoons=
		+	==Delhi==
		+	===2010- 2020===
		+	[[File: The withdrawal date of Monsoons in India, 2010- 2020.jpg|The withdrawal date of Monsoons in India, 2010- 2020 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2020%2F10%2F01&entity=Ar00403&sk=17C75D11&mode=text  Priyangi Agarwal, October 1, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	'''See graphic''':
		+
		+	''The withdrawal date of Monsoons in India, 2010- 2020''
		+
		+	==2020: 13 days late==
		+	[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/southwest-monsoon-withdraws-13-days-after-normal-schedule/articleshow/78922163.cms  October 28, 2020: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	Southwest monsoon withdraws, 13 days after normal schedule
		+
		+	NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon finally withdrew from the entire country on Wednesday, 13 days after its normal date of final withdrawal. With the final withdrawal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the northeast monsoon, a phenomenon that brings rainfall in extreme south peninsular India, has commenced. Analysis of withdrawal dates of southwest monsoon from the entire country during 1975-2020 period shows that the 2010 had seen the most delayed withdrawal on October 29.
		+
		+	Like this year, the withdrawal date in 2016 was also October 28 while 2000 and 2017 had seen it on October 25. Predicting weather conditions during next few days, the IMD said, “Scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorm and lightning is very likely over Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next five days with isolated heavy falls over south Tamil Nadu on October 29.”
		+
		+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+
		+	=YEAR-WISE DATA=
		+	=1901-2013=
		+	1901-2013: There are two detailed, year-wise graphics elsewhere on this page.
		+
		+	'''Years of excessive rain and most deficient rain in monsoon season, 1901-1945'''
		+
		+	and
		+
		+	'''Years of excessive rain and most deficient rain in monsoon season, 1946-2013'''
		+
		+	==1988-2019: the wettest July-Aug==
		+
		+	[[File: The wettest July-August between 1988 and 2019; July-Aug rainfall in 2019.jpg|The wettest July-August between 1988 and 2019 <br/> July-Aug rainfall in 2019. <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F08%2F31&entity=Ar01915&sk=FF143C69&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, August 31, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	'''See graphic''':
		+
		+	'' The wettest July-August between 1988 and 2019 <br/> July-Aug rainfall in 2019. ''
		+
		+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:Pages with broken file links|MONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+
		+	=2009-18=
		+	[[File: Years of excessive rain and deficient rain during the monsoon season, 2009-18.jpg|Years of excessive rain and deficient rain during the monsoon season, 2009-18 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F04%2F16&entity=Ar00400&sk=119E135C&mode=image  April 16, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+
		+	'''See graphic''':
		+
		+	''Years of excessive rain and deficient rain during the monsoon season, 2009-18''
		+
		+	=2010-19: rainfall received=
		+	[[File: 2010-19- rainfall received during the monsoon, as percentage of the long-period average.jpg|2010-19: rainfall received during the monsoon, as percentage of the long-period average.<br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/how-kerala-keeps-its-date-with-the-monsoon/articleshow/82699010.cms  Sudha Nambudiri, May 18, 2021: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	'''See graphic''':
		+
		+	'' 2010-19: rainfall received during the monsoon, as percentage of the long-period average. ''
		+
		+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:Pages with broken file links|MONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+
		+	=2012, 2014-17: deficit monsoons=
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F06%2F01&entity=Ar01712&sk=2445DE7A&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, After 4 bad years, IMD says north India to get good rains, June 1, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	[[File: Monsoon performance in northwest India, 2013-17.jpg|Monsoon performance in northwest India, 2013-17 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F06%2F01&entity=Ar01712&sk=2445DE7A&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, After 4 bad years, IMD says north India to get good rains, June 1, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	The India Meteorological Department’s forecast of a normal monsoon in northwest India will bring cheer to the crucial agricultural region, where rainfall has been below-par for four years in a row. If the forecast holds, northwest India is in for its first no-deficit monsoon since 2013.
		+
		+	In its region-wise monsoon forecast released on Wednesday, IMD predicted 100% seasonal rainfall in northwest India, a region comprising J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. In meteorological terms, 100% corresponds to rains that are exactly normal.
		+
		+	Being farthest from the seas, northwest India is at the tail end of the monsoon system, which arrives here after traversing the rest of the sub-continent. That’s why the normal monsoon season rainfall here is 615mm, way lower than the country’s normal of 887mm for the June-September period.
		+
		+	In recent years, however, monsoon in the northwest has been mostly below normal. Since 2012, the region received an above-normal monsoon only in 2013, a year that brought disasters of a different kind — cloudbursts and flash-floods in parts of Uttarakhand.
		+
		+	It is said, when monsoon fails in India, it fails spectacularly in the northwest. The drought years of 2014 and 2015 saw gaping monsoon deficits of 21% and 17%, respectively, in the region. Even last year, when the country had a near-normal monsoon, northwest India ended up with a rain shortfall of 10%.
		+
		+	The failing rainfall in recent years has not seriously impacted agricultural output in the region. That’s because farmers still have access to water due to perennial rivers, a good irrigation network and groundwater. However, deficient rainfall takes a big toll on the region’s scarce groundwater resources, which have anyway been depleting at an alarming rate.
		+
		+	Large parts of northwest India fall in the zone that has among the highest rates of groundwater extraction in the world. A bad monsoon puts further stress on this resource while adding to the inputs costs of farmers.
		+
		+	Further, poor winter rainfall in the region this year, particularly in the western Himalayas, has led to reduced levels in north India’s perennial rivers and other water sources. Timely arrival of monsoon and good rains will thereafter will go a long way in alleviating water stress on all fronts.
		+
		+	=2013=
		+	Monsoon going strong, hopes soar
		+
		+	Rains Set To Cross 100% Of Long-Period Average, Record Rice Output Likely
		+
		+	Neha Lalchandani TNN
		+
		+	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2013/08/02&PageLabel=14&EntityId=Ar01400&ViewMode=HTML The Times of India] 2013/08/02
		+
		+
		+	A bountiful monsoon normally benefit the kharif crop and augurs good rice production with the area under sowing touching 196 lakh hectares in 2013, a 16 lakh hectare increase over 2012.
		+
		+	=2015=
		+	==17% rain deficit in July 2015==
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Dry-days-17-rain-deficit-in-July-02082015018030 ''The Times of India''], Aug 02 2015
		+	Amit Bhattacharya, Vishwa Mohan & Neha Madaan
−	It's time we protect men from implications of trumped-up cases and uphold their “dignity and honour“, a trial court observed here on Monday while acquitting a lawyer in what turned out to be a false rape case.	+	''' Dry days: 17% rain deficit in July '''
−	Noting that the lawyer had been framed in the case, the court said he may now file a suit seeking damages from the complainant on account of “humiliation, distress and misery he suffered“.	+	After a wet June, when other systems had countered the adverse effects of El Nino, monsoon took a drier turn in July and the month ended with a countrywide rain deficit of 17%. However, kharif sowing remained robust, boost ed by good rain spells in sev eral parts of the country .
		+	With the dip in rains monsoon's performance in the first half of the season -June 1 to July 31 -was 5% below the long term average June had a monsoon surplus of 16%.
−	The woman had alleged that ''' she was repeatedly raped by the accused from 2010-2012 in his chamber inside the complex of a district court. ''' Howev er, she retracted from her complaint while deposing in court, confessing that he was innocent and she had lodged a complaint against him out of anger. She even prayed for his acquittal in court. “No one discusses the dignity and honour of a man as all are fighting for the rights of women. Where's the law to protect a man from a woman when he is being persecuted and implicated in a false case? Perhaps, it's time to take a stand,“ additional sessions judge Nivedita Anil Sharma said. His plight may also con tinue after his acquit tal as the implication may have caused an uproar in society... but his acquittal may not even be noticed. He would continue to suffer the stigma of being accused of rape. It may not be possible to restore his dignity and honour nor compensate him for humiliation, misery and distress,“ the judge said.	+	Heavy rains in Gujarat Rajasthan, West Bengal Jharkhand and parts of cen tral India masked the fact that July this year was the driest since 2002 in terms of average rainfall across the country . The month started on a weak note and rains re mained below par till July 19, except for a brief four day period from the 9th.
−	According to the prosecution, the woman, who was working as a clerk with the man, lodged a complaint alleging that he had repeatedly raped her for two years and that he had also threatened to kill her if she disclosed her `plight' to anyone. The accused was subsequently chargesheeted for offences under sections 376(2)(n) (repeatedly raping a woman), 354A (sexual harassment), 354D (stalking) and 506 (criminal intimidation) of Indian Penal Code.	+	But there were several redeeming features. “The rainfall, although weak, has been fairly well distributed across most parts of the country ,“ said D Sivananda Pai, head of India Meteoro logical Department's long range forecasting section.
−	The woman, however, turned hostile while deposing as a prosecution witness. “The evidence of prosecutrix makes it highly improbable that such incident ever took place. She has categorically deposed that the accused didn't rape her nor threatened to kill her and her family.She did not have any grievances against the accused.She has even prayed for his acquittal,“ the court said, while acquitting the lawyer.	+	However, some distress zones of low rainfall have started emerging. Rains were consistently weak through July in south India as well as subdivisions such as Marath wada and Madhya Maharash tra. From July 1 till 29, the southern peninsula recorded the highest rainfall deficien cy in the country , at 46%.
−	=Rape allegation when unwed pregnancy discovered=	+	“We had forecast an 8% rainfall deficit for July , but it has turned out to be more. A typical feature this year has been that most rain-causing disturbances have been com ing from the east. Indian Ocean's monsoon circulation has been weak, which means that the monsoon pulses are not progressing from the south, which has caused a significant rainfall deficiency in the southern parts,“ a Met department official said.
−	==He raped his sister-in-law repeatedly for two months while her sister was away==	+
−	''' JNU student arrested for raping sister-in-law '''	+
−	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/03/02&PageLabel=11&EntityId=Ar01101&ViewMode=HTML The Times of India ]	+	However, rains in the north, most parts of central India and many regions of the east were close to normal.This is reflected in the kharif crop sowing figures. The overall sown area has, so far, been far ahead of the corresponding figures last year, which was a bad monsoon year.
−	New Delhi: A PhD scholar at JNU was held on Saturday for raping his sister-in-law.	+	The area under kharif as on Friday (July 31) was still less than what was reported at this time in 2013, when rains were plentiful in the monsoon months. As compared to 819.99 lakh hectares as on August 2, 2013, the kharif sown area this year was 764.28 lakh hectares as on July 31.
−	The 16-year-old told police she was repeatedly raped by the accused, who is married to her elder sister, over two months and she became pregnant. The survivor, a Class VII student at a government school, had been living with the accused in Munirka area while her sister was with their parents in their village in UP.	+	The monsoon is predicted to be active through the first week of August, raising hopes that the net sown area would grow in the coming days.
−	The incident came to light when the girl was taken to hospital after she complained of stomach pain. Doctors said she was two months’ pregnant. The girl’s family had sent her to the capital for better education after the accused promised to take care of her.	+	Several agencies, howev er, have predicted a relatively dry period in the country after the first week of August when the monsoon could go into a break, increasing the overall rain deficit.
−	==’Gang-rape’ and conversion alleged ==	+
−	''' Twist in Meerut `rape' case '''	+
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Twist-in-Meerut-rape-case-09082014019031 The Times of India ] Aug 09 2014	+	In its monsoon update in June, IMD had forecast a 10% rain deficit in August. The department will issue another update for the second half of the season in a day or two. It had in June predicted a drought year, with overall seasonal rains at 12% below normal. Meanwhile, private forecaster Skymet downgraded its prediction for the season from 102% to 98%, still staying within the normal range.
−	Investigations into the Meerut `gang rape and conversion' case, which has had the city simmering with tension for almost a week now, got a new twist on Friday with police claiming the 20-year-old woman was in a relationship with a man called Kaleem and it was he who had taken her to a hospital for an operation related to pregnancy .	+	''' PM explores ways on sugar exports '''
−	The woman had earlier said four persons, responsible for her sexual abuse, confinement in a madrassa and forced conversion, had bundled her into a van and taken her to a clinic for a surgery.	+	M Modi called for renewed P efforts to raise ethanol blending of fuel and exploring all possibilities for sugar exports as he brainstormed with key ministers and officials to resolve the problems faced by the sector.He reviewed the progress with regard to the Rs 6000 crore incentive package approved by the Centre in June and emphasized that the farmers' interest be kept foremost at all times.
		+	=2016=
		+	[[File: Advance of southwest monsoon, 2016.jpg|Advance of southwest monsoon, 2016; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Gallery.aspx?id=11_06_2016_010_038_002&type=P&artUrl=STATOISTICS-PROGRESS-OF-THE-MONSOON-11062016010038&eid=31808 The Times of India]|frame|500px]]
		+	==June 2016: 11% Monsoon deficit==
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=11-monsoon-deficit-in-June-01072016019026 The Times of India], July 01, 2016
		+	Amit Bhattacharya
−	“Her relationship with Kaleem surfaced with the help of a call detail report in which it was found that the woman had spent hours talking to this man before her disappearance on July 23,” said SSP Onkar Singh.	+	'''11% monsoon deficit in June'''
−	According to the police, the woman, accompanied by Kaleem, had approached a gynaecologist after she suffered acute pain in her abdomen. An examination found she had ectopic pregnancy, a condition in which the embryo gets implanted in one of the fallopian tubes. She had been carrying this for 45 days.	+	Monsoon remained slightly below expectations in the first month of the rainy season as June ended with a countrywide deficit of 11%, mainly on account of a delayed onset.
		+	Despite the deficit, however, rains have been in the normal to excess range in around two-thirds of India's 36 meteorological subdivisions. “The deficit in June was mainly due to the eight-day delay in monsoon's onset. It progressed well after that but did not perform as expected in central India.But the shortfall should be made up in July ,“ said D Sivananda Pai, lead monsoon forecaster at the India Meteorological Department.
−	She was prescribed an immediate operation. On July 23, the couple reached Meerut Medical College and signed a consent form as ‘husband and wife’ after which the surgery began.	+	The Met department expects rains to pick up in July , the most crucial month of the season for kharif sowing.Monsoon's performance in July is also important for water recharge as it accounts for almost a third of the total seasonal rainfall. By contrast, June normally gets only around 18% of the total monsoon rains.
−	=Cases that would be considered rape only in India=	+	“The monsoon hit the country only on June 8. So, we have got just about three weeks of monsoon rains so far. By that measure, an 11% shortfall is well within range,“ said B P Yadav, director, IMD. Among the meteorological regions of the country , south India received the best rain bounty , with 22% excess rains in June.Although the monsoon is yet to arrive in many parts of northwest India, the region had just a2.4% rain shortfall because of fairly good pre-monsoon showers in states such as Punjab.
−	== False cases give Delhi the label of 'rape capital': Judge==	+
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Rape-count-up-on-false-cases/articleshow/21412973.cms ''The Times of India'']	+
−	False cases are the reasons behind labelling of Delhi as the 'rape capital', a court in Delhi has held while acquitting a 75-year-old man on the charge of sexually assaulting his maid after the woman turned hostile.	+	The highest shortfall was in east and northeast India, where June ended with a 27.3% deficit. The performance wasn't totally unexpected because the region is predicted to receive less rains this year.
−	The court said after the December 16 gang rape of a 23-year-old girl in a moving bus in Delhi, it led to the creation of an atmosphere that "the mere statement of a lady that she has been raped, came to be taken as the gospel truth, on the basis of which the accused was arrested and chargesheeted".	+	The region where monsoon has been more or less disappointing is central India, which had an 18.2% deficit in June. Except for Konkan and Goa, Marathwada and west Madhya Pradesh, rainfall has been less than average in all subdivisions of the region.
−	"This lead to an unprecedented surge in filing of false rape cases...It is these false cases which play havoc with the crime statistics, leading to the labelling of Delhi as a 'rape capital'," additional sessions judge Virender Bhat said, while acquitting Bhopal Sharma of the charge of sexually assaulting his maid.	+	While Odisha and east MP are expected to get rains in the next days, other subdivisions in the region where the deficit is high -Gujarat and Madhya Maharashtra -may have to wait a few more days for good rainfall, Met officials said.These areas too would get good monsoon showers in July , they added. “In the next few days, monsoon activity is likely to be concentrated in northwest India and adjoining parts of central India. We expect monsoon to hit Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and more parts of UP and Rajasthan in the next two-three days,“ said Yadav.
−	The court observed that as acquittals in such cases are hardly ever reported, the falsely implicated persons lose their honour, dignity and status in the society and though these cannot be restored, "these victims" can be compensated so that they can start life afresh.	+	===Deficit hampers kharif sowing===
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Deficit-rainfall-hampers-kharif-sowing-in-June-02072016018051 The Times of India], Jul 02 2016
−	It also noted that "it is a matter of intense regret that even the frail, sick and aged persons are not spared from the false allegations of rape".	+	[[File: Sown area under Kharif crop in 2015-16, 2016-17.jpg|Sown area under Kharif crop in 2015-16, 2016-17; Graphic courtesy: [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Deficit-rainfall-hampers-kharif-sowing-in-June-02072016018051 The Times of India], July 2, 2016|frame|500px]]
−	== Bhopal Sharma and his maid (domestic employee)==	+	Vishwa Mohan
−	The maid in her complaint had said a few days after she started working at Sharma's house in July 2012, he had raped her and after the incident, had promised to marry her.	+	'''Deficit rainfall hampers kharif sowing in June 2016'''
−	Thereafter, '''he continued to have sexual relations with her''' on the pretext of marrying her, the maid had alleged, adding that she lodged the police complaint on October 11, 2012 after Sharma expressed his unwillingness to keep his promise.
−	However, during the trial, the woman turned hostile and said she had levelled false allegations on the advice of Anita and another person Kuldeep.	+	Deficit monsoon rains in June has affected the overall kharif sowing operation in the month, keeping the sown area low as compared to the corresponding period last year but the area under paddy has shown improvement for the first time this season as compared to 2015-16.
−	=='The majority of the cases do not fit into the conventional bracket of rape'==	+	Kharif sown area data, released by the agriculture ministry on Friday , put the total area at 215.87 lakh hectare as on July 1 as compared to 279.27 lakh hectare at this time last year. However, the paddy recorded marginal increase by covering 47.77 lakh hectare so far this year as compared to 47.62 lakh hectare in 2015-16.
−	Attention has once again been drawn to the security, legality and the apparent misuse of this much-professed institution of convenience. Gurgaon police arrest the accused without fail but '''a majority of the cases do not fit into the conventional bracket of rape.'''	+
−	When live-in relationships sour, it is usually because the women feel cheated by the fact that the alleged promise of marriage is not kept.	+	Sowing operations, which remained sluggish during the first three weeks after the onset of monsoon, picked up pace in the past one week due to good rains in south India -covering over 90 lakh hectare under various crops in the past seven days.
−	==Consensual menage-a-trois called forced sex==	+
−	''' Consensual sex lands couple in prison, friend in trouble '''	+
−	TNN | Aug 17, 2014 [http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/City/Bangalore/Consensual-sex-lands-couple-in-prison-friend-in-trouble/articleshow/40328587.cms The Times of India ]	+	“Though the area under kharif crops, including pulses, oilseeds and cotton, is still less than the area during the corresponding period last year due to 11% of deficit rainfall in June, the sowing operation will further pick up in July and hopefully cross the last year's sown area by the end of this month“, said an official.
−	BANGALORE: A couple was arrested on Monday after a friend and neighbour alleged that she was forced by them to have sex with the man. The case has now taken a curious turn with police saying it was consensual sex that had the approval of the man, wife and her friend but went awry after the wife changed tack.	+	Areas under pulses and oilseeds will, however, continue to be a major concern.Sown area under oilseeds stands at merely 28.71 lakh hectare as on Friday as compared to 54.24 lakh hectare at this time last year. Similarly, cotton too recorded poor sowing as its sown area stands at 30.59 lakh hectare as compared to 60.16 lakh hectare in the 2015-16.
−	The couple had been arrested after their friend and neighbour from, complained to Gangammanagudi police about the forced sexual outrage that took place on July 27.	+	The availability of water in the country's 91 major reservoirs has marginally increased from 23.20 billion cubic meter (BCM) on June 23 to 23.94 BCM as on June 30 despite constant withdrawal of water from them.
−	The complainant, a married woman, had a cordial relationship with Asha, 24, married to Dileep, 30, who worked as a bill collector with a local cable operator. The friend had expressed her desire to watch a porn movie with Asha, who also reciprocated and promised to get a porn VCD. Later Asha suggested to her friend that instead of watching porn, she could have a sexual encounter with her husband.	+	According to the Central Water Commission, Rajasthan, Tripura and Andhra Pradesh have better storage in 2016 than the corresponding period in 2015.
−	On July 27 around 9.30pm, Asha invited the woman to her house and facilitated the encounter with Dileep. "But after this, Asha turned tables against the woman accusing her of having an illicit relationship with Dileep for a long time. A quarrel ensued between the two and Asha threatened to inform the woman's husband. The woman panicked and told her husband that Asha had been accusing her of an illicit relationship with Dileep. He then suggested that she go to her parental home," said police.	+	=2017=
		+	== Despite floods, 5% rain deficit==
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=DOUBLE-WHAMMY-Despite-floods-India-faces-5-rain-19082017017018  Amit Bhattacharya, Despite floods, India faces 5% rain deficit, August 19, 2017: The Times of India]
−	Fearing ignominy, the woman and her husband approached Gangammanagudi police station and filed a case against the couple. Both Asha and Dileep were arrested and sent to judicial custody.	+	[[File: All-India average daily rainfall, and the deviation from this average in 2017, at the all-India level and in India’s four geographical zones.jpg|All-India average daily rainfall, and the deviation from this average in 2017, at the all-India level and in India’s four geographical zones; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=DOUBLE-WHAMMY-Despite-floods-India-faces-5-rain-19082017017018  Amit Bhattacharya, Despite floods, India faces 5% rain deficit, August 19, 2017: The Times of India]|frame|500px]]
−	Both couples live in Shivananjappa Layout near Abigere close to Jalahalli	+	'''Large Parts Receive Poor Rain In August'''
−	=Borderline cases=	+	The flood fury in Assam, Bihar, Bengal and Uttar Pradesh has taken attention away from poor monsoon rains in large parts of the country in August. The month has so far seen a 24% rain deficit (till August 18), with central India in particular reeling under a prolonged break in the monsoon.
−	==Intoxicated girl says she was 'gang-raped' by friends who used contraceptives==	+
−	''' 19-year-old girl 'gang-raped' in Raipur '''	+
−	Rashmi Drolia, TNN | Aug 26, 2013	+	The lull in rains has opened up a huge 58% shortfall in central India, and 37% in the northwest, for the month of August, pulling down monsoon's performance since June 1 to belownormal zone. The overall deficit now stands at 5% of the long period average.
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/raipur/19-year-old-girl-gang-raped-in-Raipur/articleshow/22072400.cms The Times of India]	+	However, the good news is that the monsoon is set to revive, the India Meteorological Department officials said. “By the weekend, the monsoon will become more active as a low pressure system is forming in the Bay of Bengal. We expect the situation in central India, west coast and the peninsula to improve,“ said D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD's longrange forecasting division.
−	RAIPUR:  Civil Lines police, while patrolling late on Sunday night, found [a] girl in Shankar Nagar locality in a suspicious state. During questioning, she claimed that she was gang-raped by five youths, who took her to an isolated place.	+	The monsoon went into a break in the last week of July, when a weather disturbance, called Madden Julian Oscillation, appeared in the eastern Indian Ocean and depressed rains over the subcontinent.
−	''' The girl retracted from her statement ''' on Monday while taking to the media, claiming that all the five youth, named in her statement, were her friends and they didn't rape her. However, the police searched the crime scene, as earlier described by the girl, and found contraceptives.	+	“Since then, no low pressure systems formed in the Bay of Bengal. Neither did any storm system move west from the Pacific to aid the monsoon here. There were no impulses from the Indian Ocean either,“ Pai said.
−	Police sources claimed that the girl might have been physically involved with her boyfriend who later called his friends, who later gang-raped her. Girl was under the influence of alcohol when police brought her to police station.	+	“Now, there's some activity in the Indian Ocean which should progress northward towards India,“ he added.
−	Civil Lines town inspector [Ms] Manisha Thakur [arrested] the five accused [and released the names of all five to the media, tarnishing their reputations forever; the name of the girl who made the accusation was, as is the practice in India, kept a secret]. A case under Section 376 (2G) of the IPC was registered against the [five accused].	+	While central and south are expected to get wet spells in the coming days, northwest India will have to wait to more conducive conditions.
−	==Girl raped by the man she eloped with, his friends ==	+
−	[[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Girl-alleges-gang-rape-31122015007026 Dec 31 2015 : The Times of India]]	+
−	''' Girl alleges gang rape '''	+	“Northwest may not improve a lot unless there's an interaction of a western disturbance with the monsoon system,“ Pai said.
−	New Delhi:	+	The three-week monsoon break has led to several meteorological subdivisions becoming rain “deficient“, showing a deficit of at least 20%. These include Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada, Vidarbha, entire Karnataka and Kerala.In most other parts of India, comprising 26 of the 36 subdivision, rainfall has been normal or excess.
−	TNN	+	As is usually the case during a break in the monsoon, northeast India and the Himalayan regions continued to get rain in the first half of August, causing rivers to swell and flood the Gangetic plains. East and northeast India region has a 48% rain surplus so far in August, which IMD expects to decrease slightly in the second half. South India, which was the country's driest region in July with a 36% deficit, has had better rains in August. It still has an overall deficit of 16%.
−	A 23-year-old woman has alleged that she was gang-raped by three men. Two of the accused were arrested on Tuesday , while a search is on the nab the other.	+	== Deficient rainfall brings down kharif sowing==
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Deficient-rainfall-brings-down-kharif-sowing-19082017017020  Vishwa Mohan, Deficient rainfall brings down kharif sowing, August 19, 2017: The Times of India]
−	The woman said she had met the trio while doing a course at an aviation institute. A year ago, she had eloped with one of them, who took her to a house in Kailash Colony . She alleged that she was confined there for nearly a year-and-a-half during which she was raped by all three of them.
−	They even admitted her to a nursing home in Mehrauli after telling the doctors that her mental condition is unstable.	+	Sending worry ing signals to the farm sector, deficient rains in central and peninsular India have taken toll on the ongoing Kharif (summer crop) sowing operation, bringing down the total acreage as on Friday, as compared to the sown area during the corresponding period last year.
−	==Her girlfriends film her being raped in her own house ==	+
−	[[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Girl-raped-to-avenge-poll-defeat-ends-life-27122015018046 The Times of India]]	+
−	Girls film friend's rape, upload clip	+	Oilseeds and pulses are the worst hit. It will increase the country's import bill if sowing does not pick up in next two-three weeks. India, in any case, has to depend on imports to meet its domestic demand for these crops.
−	Two schoolgirls have been detained for allegedly colluding in and filming the rape of a friend at her house and uploading the clip online. A report has been filed, but the youth who allegedly raped the 16-year-old girl is at large, police said. Mrigank Tiwari	+	Latest crop-wise figures, released by the agriculture ministry on Friday , show that the total Kharif sown ar ea as on Friday stand at 976.34 lakh hectares as compared to 984.57 lakh hectares at this time last year -a clear indication that the current crop year (2017-18) may not be as good as 2016-17 in terms of production despite normal monsoon in many parts of the country .
−	=Extorting money by falsely alleging rape=	+	Though the total sown area has dipped below last year's corresponding period level for the first time on Friday this monsoon season, sown area under oilseeds has consistently been declin ing for the past four weeks.
−	==Female gang alleges rape to extort money in ten cases==	+
−	''' JULY 9 HEARING - Report sought on rape-law gang '''	+
−	New Delhi	+	Similarly , pulses too has shown declining trend in past two weeks with sown area under pigeon pea (arhar), moong and soyabean declining by 18%, 6% and 9% respectively as compared to their acreage at this time last year. Sown area under oilseeds stand at 157.36 lakh hectares (LH) as compared to 175.10 LH at this time last year -the highest dip in terms of acreage so far this season.
−	TIMES NEWS NETWORK	+	Less rainfall means poor storage of water and lower acreage in the Kharif season and also during Rabi (winter crop) sowing operation, beginning October. Less moisture content in soil also affects Rabi crops. If low rainfall phase continues in these areas, its effect will be felt on overall production.
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=JULY-9-HEARING-Report-sought-on-rape-law-07072014003042 ''The Times of India''] Jul 07 2014	+	==235 districts were deficit; after floods came drought==
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=235-of-The-Countrys-630-Districts-Face-Monsoon-14092017009022 Amit Bhattacharya, 235 of The Country's 630 Districts Face Monsoon Deficit Of 20% Or More - After floods, Comes drought, Sep 14 2017: The Times of India]
−	Taking serious note of a complaint alleging misuse of anti-rape laws by a woman gang for extortion of money , a trial court has directed Delhi Police to file a detailed status report in the matter. The court also directed a DCP to personally appear before it on July 9 with the report saying, “any abuse and misuse of laws relating to crime against women by a group for attaining their nefarious ends needs to be checked, for it dilutes the cause in genuine cases.“	+	[[File: Monsoon performance, district-wise, month-wise.jpg|Monsoon performance, district-wise, month-wise, 2017; [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=235-of-The-Countrys-630-Districts-Face-Monsoon-14092017009022  Amit Bhattacharya, 235 of The Country's 630 Districts Face Monsoon Deficit Of 20% Or More - After floods, Comes drought, Sep 14 2017: The Times of India]|frame|500px]]
−	The complainant has alleged that a woman, who is a key member of the gang, has filed more than 10 false cases in the same police station in order to “extort money from innocent men.“	+	Around 235 districts across the country face the prospect of drought this year as the monsoon appears headed for a below-normal performance, with the season's deficit currently at 6.2% of normal.
−	Additional sessions judge [Ms] Kamini Lau said if allegations made by the man regarding the complainant being a member of a gang indulging in extortion activities and filing false cases is correct, “then it is a serious matter which should have been looked and inquired into at the level of district head“.	+	These districts, accounting for 37% of the country's 630 districts for which rain data is available, have monsoon shortfall of at least 20%, with nine show acute deficits of 60% or more, data from the India Meteorological Department reveals.
−	== False charges cause irreparable damage to the accused==	+
−	[[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=False-rape-cases-give-city-a-bad-name-18012016010015  Sana Shakil,  The Times of India]]	+
−	Jan 18 2016 : The Times of India (Delhi)	+	A majority of the distress districts lie in the hinterland, in a swathe running through Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha. Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and MP are the hardest hit states, showing rain deficits of 31%, 28% and 25%, respectively .
−	''' `False rape cases give city a bad name'  '''	+	The deficits have grown gradually since the end of July, when the monsoon started failing in central and north India. The first two months of the season, June and July , ended with a countrywide rain surplus of 2.5%. Monsoon's performance since August 1 has been a dismal 17% below normal (till September 12), with good rainfall being mainly restricted to south and northeast India.
−	Court Tells Cops To Book Woman	+	“A number of factors worked against the monsoon since July-end. There have hardly been low-pressure circulations since then and conditions in the Indian and Pacific oceans have been unfavourable,“ said D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD's long range monsoon forecasts.
−	False rape charges not only cause immense distress and irreparable damage to the person who has been falsely implicated but it also gives the world a chance to label the city as rape capital, a trial court said while expressing concern over increase in filing of false rape cases in the city .	+	IMD had forecast normal monsoon this year at 96% of long period average, which it updated to 98% in June.
−	The court's remarks came while closing a rape and sexual harassment case against two men after it found that the woman had registered a false case to extort money from them.	+	Poor distribution of rainfall has added to the distress.As many as 110 districts have had excess or `large excess' (over 60% of normal) rainfall. In addition, heavy rain spells in Gujarat, Rajasthan and catchment areas in the Himalayas (particularly in Nepal) caused the worst floods in the country in 10 years.
−	Taking strict note of the woman's conduct, the court ordered the station house officer of Saket police station, where the case was lodged, to initiate legal action against her for filing a false complaint and for giving a false statement on oath.	+	Ironically , states such as UP have seen both flood fury as well as the prospect of drought. The monsoon deficit in west UP stands at 37%, highest for any subdivision in the country . Of the state's 72 districts, rainfall has been deficient in 48. Of these, five districts -Agra, Hamirpur, Mahamayanagar, Amethi and Kushinagar -face acute shortfall of 60% or more.
−	Additional chief metropolitan magistrate Gaurav Rao passed the order while accepting Delhi Police's cancellation report. The woman had lodged a complaint against Vipin (name changed) alleging that he had promised her help to find her a job, and took her to an office where she was sexually harassed by Kunal (name changed).Vipin again met her on the pretext of providing her a job and this time he raped her, the complaint claimed.	+	This combination of poor rains and floods is likely to hit kharif output, although data till September 8 reveals that the sowing area this year is only marginally less than last year's, with the biggest drops seen in oilseeds, pulses and jute. Several state governments have reported ly started drought exercises.
−	A complaint was filed against Kunal under Section 354 of the IPC (outraging the modesty of a woman), while Vipin was booked for committing alleged offence of rape under Section 37 of the IPC. However, police told the court that allegations against the accused were found to be “forged, baseless and fabricated“ adding, this was done with an intention to “extort money“ from the accused.	+	Poor rains have affected water storage levels, important for winter crops. According to the Central Water Commission data, live storage at 91 important reservoirs in the country was at 58% of capacity on September 8, lowest in five years for which data was available. It was lower than the corresponding period during drought years of 2014 (74%) and 2015 (59%), and significantly below the 10-year average of 69%.
−	The judge accepted police's report after the complainant, too, said she has no objection with acceptance of the closure report. However, she pleaded that no legal action be taken against her and she may be let off with a warning. The court, however, said that it was “appalled“ by her conduct as she had caused “unfathomable“ trauma to the two men.	+	IMD believes the second half of September could bring better rains in central India. “While the situation in northwest is not likely to change too much, there are indications that central India may get some rain in the next couple of weeks. Monsoon isn't likely to start withdrawing in the next few days,“ Pai said.
−	“She tried to extort money from the alleged accused and maligned their image . Such allegations not only defame and shame a person but also let the world label the capital as rape capital.She set the entire state machinery into motion and tried to use the law for her benefit knowing full well that the allegations levelled by her were false,“ the court said. It also praised the investigating officer for bringing out the “true facts“.	+	==Monsoon ends 5% below normal==
		+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Monsoon-to-end-below-par-as-rains-begin-28092017009024  Amit Bhattacharya, Monsoon to end below-par as rains begin to withdraw, September 28, 2017: The Times of India]
−	=Fabricated rapes=
−	==Gang-rape story concocted==
−	===Teacher concocts gang-rape story to save rape-accused lover===
−	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/jaipur/Teacher-concocts-gang-rape-story-to-save-rape-accused-lover/articleshow/34340801.cms PTI] | Apr 28, 2014
−	BUNDI: A 28-year-old teacher who claimed she was gang-raped by four persons on premises of a government school here, on Monday said she had counterfeited the story to save her rape accused paramour.	+	The southwest monsoon has begun to withdraw from the country , some two weeks later than normal.With just three days to go for the official end of India's rainy season, it is now fairly certain that this year's monsoon will end in the below-normal zone.
−	The woman was in a relationship with one Mahaveer Meena, who had been accused by the wife of one of the falsely accused persons Dayaram Meena in another rape case.	+	The India Meteorological Department announced on Wednesday that the monsoon had retreated from the western parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, as well as the northwestern tip of Gujarat.
−	''' The woman had a month back disguised as a woman police constable and visited all the four false accused at their homes and threatened them of framing false rape case against them if the rape case against her paramour Mahaveer was not withdrawn. '''	+	“We expect the monsoon to withdraw completely from northwest India and adjoining parts of central India in the next two-three days. Dry weather is forecast in the region and there's a substantial drop in moisture levels, making conditions favourable for the retreat,“ said M Mohapatra, head of services at IMD.
−	===Gang-rape fabricated by television journalists===	+
−	''' 2 journalists held for staging Gzb gang rape '''	+
−	Purusharth Aradhak [http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/02/21&PageLabel=8&EntityId=Ar00804&ViewMode=HTML The Times of India]	+	He said south India, eastern coast and the northeast will continue to get rain over the next few days. The monsoon's performance so far has been below normal, with the countrywide rain deficit currently at 5.5%. The figure is unlikely to change much in the next three days, when the monsoon season (June to September) ends. This means that the monsoon is most likely to finish in the below-normal range (90-96% of long period average).
−	Ghaziabad: The case involving the alleged gang-rape of a Meerut-based woman in Ghaziabad took a dramatic the following day when police arrested two journalists working with a news channel on charges of framing the two people charged with the crime. Ghaziabad police claimed that the conspiracy was meticulously hatched and that the woman, before contacting police, had sexual intercourse with one of the journalists to establish rape in her medical examination. Police have lodged two FIRs in the matter, one against the two alleged rapists and the other against four persons including the two journalists on charges of extortion. The rape victim’s role is being scrutinized, Ghaziabad SSP Dharmender Singh said. “Links in the victim's story was missing and the two accused lodged a complaint of extortion by two journalists and two women including the rape victim on Thursday,” Singh said.	+	That would be a rather disappointing end to the season that had begun with expectations of normal rains. In April, IMD had forecast monsoon to be 96% of normal. It had subsequently updated the prediction to 98% of normal in June. Both forecasts had 4% error margin.
−	=Woman pressurised to allege rape=	+	==One-third of districts under rain deficit==
−	== Husband and father-in law forced woman to accuse youth of rape==	+	[http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/monsoon-signs-off-with-one-third-of-districts-under-rain-deficit/articleshow/60896827.cms  Amit Bhattacharya, Monsoon signs off with one-third of districts under rain deficit, Oct 1, 2017: The Times of India]
−	''' ‘KIN PRESSURE’/ Youth acquitted after woman admits filing false rape case '''	+
−	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/04/05&PageLabel=14&EntityId=Ar01401&ViewMode=HTML The Times of India ]	+	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=Monsoon-to-end-below-par-as-rains-begin-28092017009024  Amit Bhattacharya, September 30, 2017: The Times of India]
−	New Delhi: A trial court has acquitted a youth of raping and blackmailing a woman after the woman admitted that she had lodged a false complaint against him because of pressure from her husband and father-in law.
−	The woman was “willingly engaged” in sexual relations with the youth, the court said, and had lent him money of her “own will”.	+	'''HIGHLIGHTS'''
−	The woman lodged a police complaint alleging that she was raped by the accused after being offered some allurement. The woman claimed that she was threatened by the youth who had said he had taken her obscene photographs and started blackmailing her by demanding money, which she had to give him from time to time.	+	The overall monsoon shortfall is also showing in water storage levels.
−	==Family forced divorcee to accuse MP of raping her for four years==	+	In 2016, too, the monsoon went into a longish break in August.
−	''' BSP MP didn’t rape me: Woman '''	+
−	[http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/04/05&PageLabel=14&EntityId=Ar01400&ViewMode=HTML  The Times of India ]	+	A normal monsoon in 2016 had led to record foodgrain production.
−	New Delhi: In a twist to the rape case registered against BSP MP Dhananjay Singh, the woman who accused the legislator of repeatedly '' raping her for over four years, '' retracted her statement on Friday before a trial court and said Dhananjay had done no wrong to her.	+	India received below-normal monsoon this year, with the season ending on a 5.2% deficit on Saturday. While 50% of the country's districts have had normal rains, more than a third — 215 districts — are left with deficient rainfall, which could impact the kharif crop to an extent.
−	The woman, a former railway employee, turned hostile and told the court that she had deposed against the accused under pressure from relatives.	+
−	The woman told the court that she had lodged a case against Dhananjay as she feared that the accused was interfering in her married life. She further deposed that she was disturbed after her husband sent divorce papers to her in 2009.	+	A 'below-normal monsoon', according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is when countrywide rains in the season are 90-96% of the long period average (LPA). It is a category above 'deficient monsoon', when rains are below 90% of LPA (as in the drought years of 2014 and 2015).
−	==Parents force girl to allege rape==	+
−	''' Court acquits Amity rape accused, says evidence cooked up '''	+
−	Sana Shakil,TNN | Mar 6, 2015 [http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Court-acquits-Amity-rape-accused-says-evidence-cooked-up/articleshow/46472326.cms  ''The Times of India'']	+	The majority of the districts in rain distress this year are in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Vidarbha and surrounding areas, which were the hardest hit by an unexpected dip in rainfall in the second half of the season.
−	Accusing the police of fabricating evidence in a sensational 2012 'rape' case, a trial court has acquitted two youths, including a student of Amity University, who were accused of gang-raping another student of the university.	+	While the first half (June-July) posted a 2.5% rain surplus, August and September had a combined deficit of 12.5%. The Met department attributes the monsoon's failure in these months to a combination of factors that came into play together.
−	According to the police, the alleged incident took place in the afternoon of June 14, 2012. Amity student Prashant called the woman, who was his batchmate, to Vasant Vihar to watch a movie. He was accused of giving her an alcoholic drink, driving her to a secluded place in Paschim Vihar in his Honda City car, calling his friend Milind to the spot and gang-raping her.	+	"A number of storms originated in the northwest Pacific in August, which reduced rain activity over the Indian subcontinent. Conditions in the Indian Ocean too did not boost rainfall during this period," said D Sivananda Pai, head of long range forecasting at IMD. In terms of India's four regions, the northwest had the maximum rain deficit of 10%, followed by central with 6%, and east and northeast with 4%. Rains were normal in south India.
−	Freeing the duo, additional sessions judge Virender Bhat also suggested that they seek compensation from the woman and her parents because their lives and careers being jeopardized because of the "false" case.	+	The government's first advance estimate of this year's kharif crop reflects the monsoon's below-par performance, with the estimated production pegged 2.8% below last year's. A normal monsoon in 2016 had led to record foodgrain production.
−	The court said that all evidence, including forensic reports contradicted the theory of rape and anal intercourse, as alleged by the woman. It said medical evidence contradicted the rape claim while phone records, too, showed the woman was getting calls from her family when she was allegedly being gang-raped.	+	The comparison with last year, when overall rains were better by just over two percentage points, is interesting. While 10 out of the 36 subdivisions in the country had deficient rains in 2016 — as compared to six this year — there were fewer districts with large rain shortfall. The number of districts with deficient or very deficient rain stood at 199 last year, while this year the number is 215.
−	The court held that woman's parents pushed her into implicating the accused as they didn't like their daughter getting drunk with Prashant on the day of the alleged incident. It rejected police's story that Prashant and the woman were just classmates and said they were probably in love.	+	In 2016, too, the monsoon went into a longish break in August. However, crucially, the break came later and lasted for a shorter time. This year, the break in the monsoon — when rainfall dips sharply in central India — began around July 26 and continued till the third week of August, a period crucial for kharif sowing.
−	During the trial, the woman had failed to identify the place of alleged rape.	+	"There were too many lulls in the monsoon during the second half. Also, the distribution of rainfall was rather poor, with some areas getting too much rain, which led to floods," said Pai. On the brighter side, south India got good rains during August and September, which wiped out the deficits of the previous months.
−	"The conduct of the accused in dropping the woman near a police barricade and that they even spoke to two cops there is indicative of the fact...that they had not committed any crime," the court said, adding that police cleverly chose not to list these cops as prosecution witnesses in the case whereas those two could have proved to be material witnesses in the case.	+	Some of these subdivisions, such as south interior Karnataka, had seen drought last year. The northeast, too, got good spells of rain in the second half.
		+	The overall monsoon shortfall is also showing in water storage levels. According to the Central Water Commission, 91 major reservoirs in the country were at 66% of capacity on September 28. This is just about 89% of the levels in the corresponding period last year, and 87% of the 10-year average.
−	The woman spoke about being gang-raped by the duo only on June 28, 2012, 14 days after the incident.
−	Acquitting Milind, the court said call records and testimonies of various witnesses established that he was not with Prashant and the woman when the alleged incident took place. Milind met them only after Prashant called him to help drop the woman safely as she was drunk, the court said.	+	'''Monsoon to end below-par as rains begin to withdraw'''
−	The duo dropped the woman at Vasant Vihar and asked her parents to take her home as she was heavily drunk, the court said.
−	==Husband and parents force woman to accuse lover of rape==
−	[[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=False-plaint-Court-acquits-man-of-rape-charges-13012016006040 Jan 13 2016 : The Times of India]]
−	''' False plaint: Court acquits man of rape charges  '''	+	The southwest monsoon has begun to withdraw from the country , some two weeks later than normal.With just three days to go for the official end of India's rainy season, it is now fairly certain that this year's monsoon will end in the below-normal zone.
−	New Delhi:	+	The India Meteorological Department announced on Wednesday that the monsoon had retreated from the western parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, as well as the northwestern tip of Gujarat.
−	TIMES NEWS NETWORK	+	“We expect the monsoon to withdraw completely from northwest India and adjoining parts of central India in the next two-three days. Dry weather is forecast in the region and there's a substantial drop in moisture levels, making conditions favourable for the retreat,“ said M Mohapatra, head of services at IMD.
−		+
−	A trial court acquitted a man of charges of rape and intimidating a married woman by observing that the woman had lodged a false complaint against him by giving a concocted version at the instance of her husband and parents.	+
−	“What actually had happened is that she was not happy with her husband who used to beat her regularly , and so she developed friendship with the accused Balinder. She eloped with him to Chandigarh where their marriage was solemnized and stayed happily together,“ additional sessions judge (ASJ) Virender Bhatt said while acquitting Haryana resident Balinder.	+	He said south India, eastern coast and the northeast will continue to get rain over the next few days. The monsoon's performance so far has been below normal, with the countrywide rain deficit currently at 5.5%. The figure is unlikely to change much in the next three days, when the monsoon season (June to September) ends. This means that the monsoon is most likely to finish in the below-normal range (90-96% of long period average).
−	Besides Balinder, other accused, including his father Ramphal, his uncle Suresh Kumar and his maternal grandfather Veerbhan were also acquitted by the court of various charges. “The evidence on record clearly reveals that the victim has lodged a false complaint against the accused giving a concocted version, probably at the instance of her husband and her parents,“ the court said.While freeing the accused, the court relied on the statements of various witnesses.	+	That would be a rather disappointing end to the season that had begun with expectations of normal rains. In April, IMD had forecast monsoon to be 96% of normal. It had subsequently updated the prediction to 98% of normal in June. Both forecasts had 4% error margin.
−	The court also considered the account a village panchayat note in which it was stated that the woman was not willing to go back with her parents and husband, and wanted to stay with the accused but was allowed to go after they submitted an undertaking to take her entire responsibility . “It is further evident that the prosecutrix was not happy with either her husband or her parents and did not want to go and stay with either of them. She wanted to stay with accused Balinder as she was living happily with him.This conduct of the prosecutrix completely trashes the prosecution case,“ the court said.	+	=2018=
		+	==13 Jun- 11 Sept==
		+	[[File: 2018- The progress of the Monsoon in India, 13 June- 11 September, 2018.jpg|2018- The progress of the Monsoon in India, 13 June- 11 September, 2018 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F09%2F12&entity=Ar00401&sk=89E7F1AA&mode=image  September 12, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	=Damage caused by false accusations=	+	'''See graphic''':
−	=='Should man acquitted of rape be considered survivor?' ==	+
−	'''Consensual sex called rape due to wrong advice'''	+
−	Jun 03 2015 [http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=FALSE-COMPLAINT-Should-man-acquitted-of-rape-be-03062015007028 ''The Times of India'']	+	''2018- The progress of the Monsoon in India, 13 June- 11 September, 2018''
−	''' FALSE COMPLAINT - Should man acquitted of rape be considered survivor: Court '''	+	==2018: a district-wise map ==
		+	[[File: Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon- A district-wise map; 2018 vis-à-vis 2015, 16, 17; There was a 9.4% deficit.jpg|Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon <br/> A district-wise map; <br/> 2018 vis-à-vis 2015, 16, 17 <br/> There was a 9.4% deficit <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F10%2F01&entity=Ar00302&sk=DB7C233F&mode=text  October 1, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	Acquitting a man in a rape case, a trial court has expressed concern over the society's treatment of men who are accused of heinous crimes but are later found to be innocent. Should a person acquitted of rape charge be considered as a “rape survivor“, the court asked.	+	'''See graphic''':
−	“In the circumstances, an acquitted accused, who has remained in custody for a considerable period during trial and who has been acquitted honourably after prosecutrix deposed that he has not raped her and she had physical relations with him with her free consent, should he now be addressed as rape case survivor? This leaves us with much to ponder about present day situation of veracity of rape cases,“ the court asked.	+	''Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon <br/> A district-wise map; <br/> 2018 vis-à-vis 2015, 16, 17 <br/> There was a 9.4% deficit''
−	Additional sessions judge (Ms) Nivedita Anil Sharma made the observation while acquitting a Haryana resident of the offence of raping a divor cee after she retracted from her complaint. The woman said she was now happily married to the accused.	+	==2018: Sub division-wise actuals==
		+	[[File: Rainfall in the 36 ‘sub divisions’ of India during the 2018 Monsoon, till 29 September 2018.jpg|Rainfall in the 36 ‘sub divisions’ of India during the 2018 Monsoon, till 29 September 2018 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F10%2F01&entity=Ar01605&sk=550DDEB9&mode=text  October 1, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	“The court, while absolving the accused of the charge, took into consideration the woman's statement before it that she lodged a false complaint against him due to wrong advice and influence of some well wishers.	+	'''See graphic''':
−	According to the prosecution, on March 11, 2015, the woman told police that the accused had promised to marry her and established physical relations with her forcefully.She claimed that she knew the accused since a long time as he was from her village.	+	''Rainfall in the 36 ‘sub divisions’ of India during the 2018 Monsoon, till 29 September 2018''
−	== False rape charges destroy lives==	+	===June to Sept: Day-wise statistics===
−	[http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31808&articlexml=GANG-RAPE-CASE-HC-frees-5-says-false-09062015007033 ''The Times of India''] Jun 09 2015 : The Times of India (Delhi)	+	[[File: Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon- Day-wise rainfall, June to July 31.jpg|Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon- Day-wise rainfall, June to July 31 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F10%2F01&entity=Ar01612&sk=324FD134&mode=text  October 1, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	''' GANG RAPE CASE - HC frees 5, says false rape charges destroy lives '''	+	[[File: Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon- Day-wise rainfall, July 25 to September 29.jpg|Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon- Day-wise rainfall, July 25 to September 29 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F10%2F01&entity=Ar01612&sk=324FD134&mode=text  October 1, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	Just as rape causes great distress to the victim, a false charge destroys lives and damages reputation, the Delhi high court has said, acquitting five men who were jailed sixteen years ago on the charge of gang rape.
−	“There is no doubt that rape causes great distress and humiliation to the victim of rape but at the same time false allegation of committing a rape also causes humiliation and damage to the accused. An accused also has rights which are to be protected and the possibility of false implication has to be ruled out,“ a bench of Justices G S Sistani and [Ms] Sangita Dhingra Sehgal noted in its verdict.	+	'''See graphics''':
−	The court set aside the conviction of the five men after it found that the woman who had leveled the charge of being gang raped gave inconsistent statements in court and hid the fact she was in a relationship with one of the accused.	+	''Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon- Day-wise rainfall, June to July 31''
−	“Her version has no corre lation with other supporting material being medical, scientific and expert evidence,“ the bench observed. The trial court had gone with the story of the prosecution as recorded in the FIR lodged by the woman. In her complaint registered in 1994, the woman had claimed she met the main accused Praveen, and they became friends. She said one day he took her to a friend's house and raped her.Later he also secretly filmed her being raped by Praveen's friend Bittoo. In her complaint the woman maintained she was regularly raped by Praveen's other friends, all of whom were arrested and charge sheeted by the police.	+	''Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon- Day-wise rainfall, July 25 to September 29''
−	In its judgment the trial court relied to a large extent on the claim of the woman and convicted the accused, even though, as the HC bench pointed out, there were glaring errors in her statements to the po ice. Pleading innocence, Praveen told the court that he was framed by the girl since he refused to marry her.	+	===2018: variations in IMD’s Sept figures===
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F10%2F01&entity=Ar01610&sk=36C99E79&mode=text  October 1, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
−	=The cost of false allegations to the nation=
−	At the very least, such cases trivialise rape, and when non-consensual sex (i.e. a real rape) takes place, it has to share the time of the judiciary, the police, the media and the public with cases of this kind.
−	==12 police teams check 700 cars, because woman frames male friend after tiff ==
−	''' Sex-assault cry sends police into tizzy '''
−	Raj Shekhar TNN [http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=CAP/2014/05/06&PageLabel=8&EntityId=Ar00801&ViewMode=HTML  The Times of India ]	+	A discrepancy in the rainfall data for September 30 has created ambiguity over the final figure of 804mm monsoon rainfall across the country. The IMD website shows 1.1mm mean countrywide rain on Sunday but credits 3.6mm to the consolidated monsoon figure.
−	New Delhi: About 10.30pm on Saturday night, police received a call from a woman in Mahipalpur who said she was bruised and had been partially disrobed and was lying by the roadside. The same stretch of road, nature of call and the time made South Delhi police think this was another brutal crime.	+	As on September 29, seasonal rainfall in the country was 800.4mm, as per IMD data released on the department’s website on Saturday. An addition of 1.1mm rain on Sunday would make the final monsoon figure 801.5mm. This translates to a deficit of 9.7% from the LPA of 887.5mm, which is usually rounded off to 10%.
−	The woman, in her early twenties, claimed she had been abducted, molested in a moving car and dumped there by a man who had offered her a lift. What followed was a night-long operation by local police, special task force and special staff. Even the top cops were informed and they monitored the situation..	+	IMD’s final figure for this year’s monsoon shows rainfall of 804mm across the country and a shortfall of 9.4%. This implies that Sunday’s rainfall was 3.6mm and not 1.1mm, as shown in the daily rainfall data. IMD officials weren’t available for comment.
−	12 teams were formed to trace the white car the last four digits of the numberplate of which was provided to police by the woman. One of the teams got 700 cars verified. The wild goose chase ended on Sunday morning when one of the accused was picked up	+	==2018: 9% deficit/ below-normal==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F09%2F30&entity=Ar01014&sk=04CA43ED&mode=text  Vishwa Mohan and Amit Bhattacharya, With over 9% deficit, monsoon may end in below-normal zone, September 30, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
−	Only then was it revealed that the woman had had a fight with her two male friends and got down from the car when it slowed down amidst heavy traffic. As the car was still in motion at the time, she received bruises on her face and hands while dismounting. When it had passed, she made a PCR call and told police her story. Her claims are now being investigated.	+	[[File: All-India rainfall (June 1- September 29- 2018).jpg|All-India rainfall (June 1- September 29- 2018) <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F09%2F30&entity=Ar01014&sk=04CA43ED&mode=text  Vishwa Mohan and Amit Bhattacharya, With over 9% deficit, monsoon may end in below-normal zone, September 30, 2018: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
−	However, when policewomen quizzed her, the woman gave conflicting statements, sources said. The two men were not strangers as she had first claimed. STF and special staff teams then analyzed call details of the numbers she was in touch with. These numbers were obtained from her phone. By morning, the suspect was apprehended. He was interrogated and he revealed that he knew the woman and that they had had a fight the previous night. He admitted that he was driving the car that night. ''' He has been arrested. '''	+	''Withdrawal Begins; Oct-Dec Rains In South To Be Normal: IMD''
		+
		+	The southwest monsoon which began to withdraw from the country on 29 September, starting from west Rajasthan, is likely to end in the ‘below-normal’ zone this year with a deficit of 9.4% so far.
		+
		+	While the monsoon season rainfall was below expectations, sowing of kharif crops was not majorly affected because of fairly good rain distribution. The acreage under kharif this year is 1.9% less than last year’s and around 0.7% lower than normal.
		+
		+	He told TOI that IMD has in association with IIT Gandhinagar come out with a map, showing soil moisture content across the country as a result of this year’s rains. “The map shows that the soil moisture content in most parts of the country is extremely good. It’s a good sign for rabi (winter sown) crops and the overall farm sector,” said Ramesh.
		+
		+	IMD declared the beginning of monsoon’s withdrawal, nearly a month later than the normal date of September 1. Monsoon wind patterns have receded from some west Rajasthan areas.
		+
		+	==2018, monsoon months: 21% of India dry, worse than in last two monsoons==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F10%2F06&entity=Ar02104&sk=145DB7B2&mode=text  Neha Madaan, 21% of India dry, worse than in last two monsoons: IMD data, October 6, 2018: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+
		+	The monsoon in 2018 has left 21.38% area of the country moderately to extremely dry, India Meteorological Department (IMD) data at the end of the fourmonth season shows.
		+
		+	The department’s Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), an index to monitor drought, showed that the dry conditions this monsoon have been worse than in 2016 and 2017.
		+
		+	This year, 134 districts , the maximum, reported moderately to extremely dry conditions.
		+
		+	This index, negative for drought and positive for wet conditions, showed that 229 districts reported “mildly dry” conditions, a staggering 43.51% this monsoon.
		+
		+	Around 17.78% area of the country reported moderately to extremely dry conditions last year, while 12.28% area reported such conditions in 2016, Pulak Guhathakurta, head of Climate Data Management and Services at IMD, Pune, told TOI.
		+
		+	“This monsoon, the percentage area showing dry conditions has gone up to over 21%, with more than 5.45% area witnessing severely dry conditions and 2.08% reporting extremely dry conditions during the season,” Guhathakurta said.
		+
		+	The latest SPI report released by IMD said the monsoon showed extremely, severely and moderately dry conditions over most districts of Lakshadweep, many districts of Arunachal Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar, Rayalseema and north interior Karnataka.
		+
		+	One or two districts of Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha also experienced similar dry conditions this season. Moderately to severely dry districts in Maharashtra included Satara, Solapur, Aurangabad, Jalna and Buldhana. September seemed worse for Maharashtra as extremely to moderately dry conditions prevailed over most districts of Konkan, Maharashtra, Marathwada and other regions of the country.
		+
		+	Maharashtra reported a -1.42 on the index in September this year which is “severely dry”.
		+
		+	Among the other states, the worst performer this monsoon was Lakshadweep with extremely dry conditions, followed by states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, Meghalaya, Tripura and Jharkhand where moderately dry conditions prevailed.
		+
		+	Guhathakurta said the most affected regions this season were from the northeast, some districts in Marathwada, Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Gujarat, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, south interior Karnataka and Kerala.
		+
		+	Around 17.8% of the country’s area reported moderate to extremely dry conditions last year, while 12.3% of area reported such conditions in 2016
		+
		+	=2019=
		+	==After slow start, monsoon covers 10 states in 4 days==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F06%2F24&entity=Ar00117&sk=0BB65707&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, June 24, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	[[File: Monsoon progress from June 19, 2019 till 23 June, 2019.jpg|Monsoon progress from June 19, 2019 till 23 June, 2019 <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F06%2F24&entity=Ar00117&sk=0BB65707&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, June 24, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	After having made the slowest progress in at least 12 years, the monsoon has broken into a sprint, nearly covering 10 states and entering two more within a span of four days since June 19 while racing into east Uttar Pradesh in the north.
		+
		+	With a low-pressure system giving it wind, the monsoon strode into Varanasi, covering nearly 700km in four days from its position over north Bay of Bengal last Wednesday. The push from the Bay of Bengal arm has led to an unusual situation of the monsoon having reached Varanasi while being still to arrive over Mumbai, which it normally hits by June 10.
		+
		+	“Monsoon is likely to reach Mumbai in a day or two and cover most parts of Maharashtra by June 25, after which the system is likely to go into a brief lull again,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster.
		+
		+	In the north, monsoon may push a little further into UP before the low pressure system driving it runs out of steam, Pai added.
		+
		+	The rapid strides in the last four days, however, haven’t made a significant dent in the overall rain deficit this month. Monsoon rainfall remains 38% lower than normal this month (June 1 to 23). The deficit has reduced from 44% on June 19, but still remains significantly high due to monsoon’s late onset and slow initial progress.
		+
		+
		+	''' Marathwada, Vidarbha both receive good rains '''
		+
		+	Nonetheless, monsoon’s speedy progress this week should come as good news for regions battling drought conditions in central India and parts of the south. Rains over Bihar will also moderate temperatures in the state, leading to a likely drop acute encephalitis cases.
		+
		+	Marathwada and Vidarbha, both battling acute water shortages this summer, were among the regions that received good rain on Sunday. Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and east UP were the other sub-divisions were monsoon was active. Karnataka, Telangana, west MP and J&K also received some rain.
		+
		+	While monsoon is likely to cover Maharashtra and enter MP and south Gujarat over the next couple of days, its further progress, particularly into most of northwest India, may depend on another low-pressure system coming in from Bay of Bengal. “As of now, there is no sign of a low forming over Bay of Bengal. Many parts of north India may get thundershowers, outside the monsoon system, in the next few days. It’s difficult to say at present when monsoon will hit Delhi and neighbouring states,” Pai said.
		+
		+	With many regions still awaiting a delayed monsoon, central India continues to run a high rain deficit of 43.5% while east and northeast reels under a deficit of 44% in the June 1-19 period. South too has a high shortfall of nearly 30% while north India, which is the last region to come under monsoon system, has a relatively lower deficit of 20%. It is likely that June will end up with a large rain deficit, said IMD officials. “The presence of a weak El Nino seems to have affected monsoon, delaying its onset over the Indian mainland and its slow progress thereafter,” an official said.
		+	==Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala: deficit turns into deluge ==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F08%2F16&entity=Ar00307&sk=33FBB765&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, August 16, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
		+	[[File: Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, how the June deficit turned into an August deluge.jpg|Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala: how the June deficit turned into an August deluge <br/> From: [https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F08%2F16&entity=Ar00307&sk=33FBB765&mode=text  Amit Bhattacharya, August 16, 2019: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+	When it rained, it poured. Six days of monsoon mayhem turned three sub-divisions of the country from rain deficit regions into flooded fields, in a pattern that experts warn could be getting more frequent due to climate change.
		+
		+	Till August 7, Kerala was among the monsoon deficient sub-divisions of the country with a seasonal deficit of 27%. Eleven of its 14 districts had monsoon shortfall of over 20%, with six having deficits above 30%.
		+
		+	By August 13, all the districts, barring Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram, were hit by floods.
		+
		+	In these six days, the state received 453.4mm of rain, five times the normal for this period (92.6mm) and over 30% monsoon deficiency till August 7 to a 24% surplus on August 13. South Interior Karnataka, another floodhit region, received 163.6mm of rain from August 7 to 13, 4.5 times the normal, turning an 8% deficit to a 21% rainfall surplus.
		+
		+	40% of the rainfall in Kerala in the previous 68 days of the monsoon season. Floods in the state, bringing back memories of last year’s unprecedented deluge, have since claimed 104 lives so far.
		+
		+	The change was even more dramatic in the Saurashtra and Kutch sub-division of Gujarat, which went from
		+
		+	''' Monsoon now akin to a T20 match: Expert '''
		+
		+	The patterns seem to fit in with what experts have been warning about the monsoon under climate change — the frequency of heavy rain events is increasing while the number of days of light to moderate showers is decreasing.
		+
		+	“The Indian monsoon has become like a T20 match, the situation can change dramatically within a few balls (days),” said M Rajeevan, veteran meteorologist and secretary of the earth sciences ministry. He said, coupled with extreme rain events, length of dry spells is also increasing. This combination increases the threat of floods, experts said. Saurashtra & Kutch, which is among the drier subdivisions in the country, had a cumulative rainfall of 233mm in the 68 days till August 7. In the next six days, it received 222.8mm rainfall, resulting in flood havoc in seven of the subdivision’s 12 districts.
		+
		+	No single weather event can be directly linked to climate change, M Mohapatra, director general (meteorology) at IMD said. “Last year, Mt Abu got around 70cm of rain in a day. This is part of climate variability. But the increase in the number of very rainy days is due to climate change.”
		+
		+	==The wettest July-Aug in 25 years==
		+	''' For day-wise data, see the graphic under ‘1988-2019: the wettest July-Aug’ '''
		+
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2019%2F08%2F31&entity=Ar01915&sk=FF143C69&mode=text  August 31, 2019: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	July and August this year, the main monsoon months, were the wettest India has seen in 25 years. Countrywide rainfall in the two months has been 10% above normal, the highest since 1994, met records reveal.
		+
		+	The current month, with 16% above-normal rainfall across the country in 30 days so far, is set to be the wettest August in 23 years. July had ended with a 5% monsoon surplus.
		+
		+	This is also the first time since 2010 that both July and August have received surplus all-India rainfall — just the second time in the past 25 years — IMD data reveals.
		+
		+	The surplus rainfall in July-August was a dramatic change from June, which witnessed a 33% rainfall deficit, the worst for the month in five years. “Both large scale and regional factors became favourable for the monsoon since July. First, El Nino, which normally disrupts the Indian monsoon, weakened considerably in July (and later dissipated). Meanwhile, conditions in the Indian Ocean became good for monsoon with the oceanic dipole turning positive,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology of IMD.
		+
		+	At the regional level, low pressure systems started forming over the Bay of Bengal and moving inland. “Four such systems formed in August alone. But it wasn’t the number alone. The systems remained active over the land for a large number of days, leading to vigorous monsoon conditions, particularly over central and peninsular India,” Mohapatra said.
		+
		+	However, at many places, the rainfall proved to be too much, too soon, and not much beneficial for kharif crops. While July got off to a wet start, the monsoon went into a 12-day hiatus from July 13, which delayed sowing in several states.
		+
		+	By July 25, the monsoon was nearly 20% below normal across the country, leading to concerns over another failed monsoon year. That’s when a 26-day period of intense rainfall began which not just wiped out the deficit but pulled the seasonal rainfall (since June 1) to a 2% surplus.
		+
		+	Countrywide daily rainfall during this period remained higher than normal on all but three days.
		+	As on August 30, the total sown area under kharif crops was nearly 2% less than the same period last year, according to agriculture ministry figures. While cotton has benefitted, with an increase of 6% in sown area as compared with last year, paddy has taken a hit. The sown area of the staple crop shows a 4.7% decline from last year. That’s also because of poor rains so far in major ricegrowing states such as Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand.
		+
		+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:India|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:Pages with broken file links|MONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+	[[Category:S&T|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
		+
		+	=2020=
		+	==June- Aug==
		+	[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/august-set-for-highest-rain-surplus-in-44-years/articleshow/77813821.cms  Amit Bhattacharya, August set for highest rain surplus in 44 years, August 29, 2020: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	[[File: Monsoon rainfall, June- Aug 28, 2020.jpg|Monsoon rainfall, June- Aug 28, 2020 <br/> From: [https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/august-set-for-highest-rain-surplus-in-44-years/articleshow/77813821.cms  Amit Bhattacharya, August set for highest rain surplus in 44 years, August 29, 2020: ''The Times of India'']|frame|500px]]
		+
		+
		+	NEW DELHI: While the monsoon in July was 10% below normal in the country, August is set to be one of the wettest in decades. Rainfall during the month has been 25% surplus so far (till August 28), the highest deviation from normal in 44 years, with monsoon rains pounding central and south India in recent weeks.
		+
		+	India last witnessed a higher monsoon surplus in the month of August in 1976, when 28.4% higher than normal rainfall was recorded, according to India Meteorological Department data. Met officials said active monsoon conditions are expected in the remaining three days of the month, which means the rain surplus of 25% may not change much.
		+
		+	Across the country, an average of 296.2mm of rain has been recorded so far this month, against a normal of 237.1mm. In absolute terms, rainfall for the whole month could be the highest for August since 1988, when 329.6mm was recorded.
		+
		+	Monsoon was most active over central India, which received relentless rains during the month, adding up to a huge surplus of 57% in August. South India too has had over 42% excess rains, on top of the 16% surplus it received in July.
		+
		+	Between the two months, July and August, what made the difference in monsoon conditions were the number of low-pressure systems forming in the Bay of Bengal. While there were none in July, August has had five so far against a normal of three-four in each of the two months.
		+
		+	“In July, one low-pressure system had formed in the first week but quickly dissipated. So it wouldn’t be counted as a proper system. In August, we had a number of low-pressure circulations that had long life periods, bringing copious rain, particularly over central India. The region had a 22% rain deficit in July, while in August it had a 57% surplus,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster.
		+
		+	The rain bounty in August has led to an overall monsoon surplus of 9% for the season (June 1-August 28) so far. If September turns out to be even slightly wetter than normal, the 2020 monsoon season could end with excess rainfall (over 10% above normal).
		+
		+	However, IMD officials said September could see slightly below normal rainfall although La Nina conditions are developing in the Pacific Ocean which favour good monsoon rainfall over India.
		+
		+	“We expect northwest India to get rain over the next week. After that, around September 5, monsoon activity is likely to shift to northeast India, which hasn’t had good rainfall in August. The risk of floods could increase in that region following this rain spell,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, head of IMD.
		+
		+	While northwest India received normal rainfall in August, several parts of the region, particularly the subdivision of west Uttar Pradesh, have had deficient rains. For the season as a whole, northwest India has a rain deficit of 11%.
		+
		+	==Delhi: 20% rain deficit==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2020%2F10%2F01&entity=Ar00403&sk=17C75D11&mode=text  Priyangi Agarwal, October 1, 2020: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+
		+	Delhi recorded 467.7mm of rainfall this season against the normal level of 585.8mm of rainfall. “There has been an overall deficit of 118.1mm rainfall this monsoon season,” said Kuldeep Srivastava, a scientist at IMD.
		+
		+	Despite prolonged monsoon, the month witnessed only three rainy days on September 5, 6 and 8. Only “trace” rainfall was recorded on September 4, while 0.8mm of rainfall was recorded on September 5. Safdarjung — Delhi’s base station — recorded no rainfall since September 9 even after the extended monsoon. However, the city saw two “heavy” and a “very heavy” rainy day in August.
		+
		+	Though the Safdarjung observatory observed excess rainfall in both June and July, it recorded 11 per cent deficit this season after less rain in August and September. The observatory recorded 81.8mm rainfall in June, which was 25% excess than normal 60.5mm rainfall. With 236.9mm rainfall in July, Safdarjung observed 12 per cent excess rainfall. However, in August, Safdarjung received 237mm rainfall against 247.7mm normal rainfall, while it recorded only 20.8mm rainfall in September.
		+
		+	This monsoon season, no district in Delhi recorded “excess” rainfall. However, three districts, including New Delhi with 12 per cent deficit, North Delhi with 5 per cent excess rain and South West Delhi with 3 per cent deficit, made it to “normal” category of rainfall. The IMD classifies a rain deficit when it is above -19 per cent.
		+
		+	East Delhi, North East Delhi, North West Delhi and South Delhi districts were in “deficit” category. Central Delhi, which has only received 250.2mm of rainfall against 674.9mm normal rainfall this season, fared the worst with a “large deficit” rainfall of 63 per cent.
		+
		+	== Marathwada: record rainfall==
		+	[https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2020%2F10%2F25&entity=Ar01818&sk=9EFD865C&mode=text  Prasad Joshi, October 25, 2020: ''The Times of India'']
		+
		+	All the 11 major dams in Marathwada, including the Manjra dam that is prone to dry storage and supplies water to Latur, Sina Kolegaon and Lower Dudhna in Osmanabad district, are almost filled to the designed storage capacity, thanks to record rainfall.
		+
		+	Jaisingh Hire, assistant engineer with Command Area Development Authority (CADA), Aurangabad, on Saturday said the cumulative storage in these major reservoirs was the highest in the last decade and a half.
		+
		+	Marathwada has faced droughts twice in the last six years and the threat of water scarcity looms over the region every year, especially in Latur, Osmanabad and Beed districts due to relatively poorer storages in major dams that supply water to them.
		+
		+	The overflowing dams have now addressed issues of the water-scarcity prone areas of the region at least till the end of December next year.
		+
		+	Notably, Latur had grabbed national and international attention when it was forced to supply water through special trains during the summer of 2016 owing to scanty rainfall. “The storage in the Sina Kolegaon dam was very poor in the last 15 years due to low rainfall in catchment areas. Similar was the case with Manjra for around 10 years. Overall, the collective storage in all the dams in the region is exceptional this year due to the good run of monsoon,” said Hire.
		+
		+	Four of the major irrigation projects — Sina Kolegaon (-80%), Majalgaon (-18%) and Manjra (-17%) in Beed district and Lower Dudhna (-15%) in Parbhani district — were in dead storage during the corresponding period last year.
		+
		+	Hire said that the available water stock is expected to produce a bumper season of rabi crops ahead even if kharif crops have taken a hit in many areas due to excessive rainfall.
		+
		+	“The meetings of canal advisory committees for every major irrigation project, to be convened shortly, will decide on allocation of water for drinking, irrigation and industrial among other needs. There is sufficient water to cater to all possible demands,” he said.
		+
		+	The total 11 major dams were showing 180 TMC live storage (99%), which is more than twice the average stock that has been held by them in the last five years.
		+
		+	The 75 medium dams in the region were showing 31 TMC live storage (92%), whereas 752 minor dams were holding 47 TMC water (80%). A total of 38 barrages on different major rivers from Marathwada were showing 11 TMC water in total (94%).
		+
		+	[[Category:Climate/Meteorology|MMONSOONS: INDIAMONSOONS: INDIA
		+	MONSOONS: INDIA]]
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	=See also=		=See also=
−	[[Age of consent]]	+	[[Agriculture: India]]
−	[[Crimes against women: India]]	+
−	[[Juveniles, benefits and privileges of]]	+	[[Cyclonic winds: India]]
−	[[Juvenile delinquency in India]] Especially the section 'Rape by juveniles'	+
−	[[Premarital sex]]	+	[[India Meteorological Department]]
−	=Other articles about rapes in India=	+
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−	[[Rapes in India: court verdicts]]<>	+
−	[[Rape cases unique to India]]<>	+	[[Mumbai: local rains]]
−	[[Rapes in India: the legal position after 2013]]	+
−	<>[[Rapes in India: Compensation and help for survivors]]	+	[[Rainfall: India and Burma, 1907-12]]
−	<>[[Rapes in India: annual statistics]]	+
		+	[[Rainfall: India]]
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		+	[[Storms (dust-, hail-, rain-, thunder-): India]]
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Revision as of 19:42, 23 May 2021

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Contents 1 In three sentences 2 A backgrounder 2.1 The overall picture 2.2 Kerala and the monsoon 3 History 3.1  ‘Indian monsoon system 27 million years old’ 4 Factors that influence the monsoons 4.1 Dust, soot from West Asia affect monsoon in India 4.1.1 Summary 4.1.2 Details 5 Criteria used in deciding whether monsoon has arrived 6 The amount of rainfall 6.1 1901-2013: Monsoons that crossed the 100% mark 6.2 India: Back-to-back, ‘above normal’ monsoon after 1958-59 6.3 Driest, wettest cities of India: Jun-Aug 7 Dates when monsoons reach different regions 7.1 In typical years 7.2 Years in which the monsoon arrived early 7.3 Kerala, 2005-2017: actual dates 7.4 Delhi: 2007-12 7.5 Kerala: 2008-15, onset vs performance 7.6 2011-15: actual and forecast dates 7.7 2012-20: Date of Monsoon covering entire country 7.8 2020: 2 weeks early 7.8.1 2020: progress across India 7.9 Monsoon cycle 8 The El Niño effect 8.1 1951-2017: El Niño Vs. IOD 8.2 1970-2015 9 How the monsoons control our destiny 9.1 1950-2010: India’s growth rate in drought years 9.2 Why Monsoon Matters Beyond The Farm 9.2.1 1965-2010 9.2.2 2008-19 9.3 Monsoon and agriculture 9.3.1 1986-2015 9.3.2 2004-09 9.3.3 2006-16 10 Monsoon break 10.1 Definition 10.2 Monsoons without a break 10.2.1 2003-2010 11 Monsoons in Chennai 11.1 2007-2018 12 Monsoons in Punjab, Haryana 12.1 1980- 2010 12.2 1999-2014 13 Monsoon/ water cycle 13.1 Monsoon: floods 14 ‘Normal’ monsoons 14.1 2009-18: normalcy is a myth 14.2 2019/ New norms 15 Number of rainy days… 15.1 …in a typical June, July or August 15.2 …in June, July and August, 2015 16 ‘Neutral’ years 16.1 1997-2017: vis-à-vis El Nino, La Nina years 16.1.1 In 2015 17 Pre-monsoon rainfall 17.1 2009-19 17.2 2019: India’s 2nd driest pre-monsoon since 1954 18 Monsoons in Mumbai 18.1 ‘Extremely heavy’ rain days 18.1.1 2009-19 18.2 2019: suburbs receive far more rain than central, southern Mumbai 19 Withdrawl of monsoons 19.1 Delhi 19.1.1 2010- 2020 19.2 2020: 13 days late 20 YEAR-WISE DATA 21 1901-2013 21.1 1988-2019: the wettest July-Aug 22 2009-18 23 2010-19: rainfall received 24 2012, 2014-17: deficit monsoons 25 2013 26 2015 26.1 17% rain deficit in July 2015 27 2016 27.1 June 2016: 11% Monsoon deficit 27.1.1 Deficit hampers kharif sowing 28 2017 28.1 Despite floods, 5% rain deficit 28.2 Deficient rainfall brings down kharif sowing 28.3 235 districts were deficit; after floods came drought 28.4 Monsoon ends 5% below normal 28.5 One-third of districts under rain deficit 29 2018 29.1 13 Jun- 11 Sept 29.2 2018: a district-wise map 29.3 2018: Sub division-wise actuals 29.3.1 June to Sept: Day-wise statistics 29.3.2 2018: variations in IMD’s Sept figures 29.4 2018: 9% deficit/ below-normal 29.5 2018, monsoon months: 21% of India dry, worse than in last two monsoons 30 2019 30.1 After slow start, monsoon covers 10 states in 4 days 30.2 Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala: deficit turns into deluge 30.3 The wettest July-Aug in 25 years 31 2020 31.1 June- Aug 31.2 Delhi: 20% rain deficit 31.3 Marathwada: record rainfall 32 See also

In three sentences

The four-month monsoon [rainy] season normally begins from June 1 and ends on September 30. The Southwest Monsoon gives 70 per cent (of the entire year's) rains to the country, where agriculture still remains a major contributor to the GDP. June contributes 17% of the total rainfall, July 32%, August 28% and September 23%. (From PTI)

And three more sentences:

How long was the monsoon break in June, during the period 2010 to 2018?

2010: It was a 13-day break, the longest in June in the years 2010-18

2018: The monsoon did not move for 9 days after June 13.

A backgrounder

The overall picture

Monsoon usually reaches India's mainland by first week of June, May 29 2017: The Times of India

What causes monsoon?

Monsoon, which is the seasonal reversal in the wind direction, causes most of the rainfall received in India and some other parts of the world. The primary cause of monsoons is the difference between annual temperature trends over land and sea. The apparent position of Sun with reference to earth is not fixed -it oscillates from tropic of cancer to Capricorn through the equator. The heating leads to the creation of a low pressure region. The northeast and southeast trade winds converge in this low pressure zone which is also known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This low pressure region witnesses continuous rise of the moist wind from the sea surface to the upper layers of atmosphere, where the cooling causes the loss of moisture resulting into precipitation. It is observed that the rainy season of east Asia, Sub Saharan Africa, Australia and southern parts of North America coincides with the shift of the ITCZ towards these regions.

What causes Indian monsoon?

Thar Desert and adjoining areas of the northern and central Indian Subcontinent heats up during the hot seasons of sum mer. Because of the rapid solar heating mainly between April and May a lowpressure cell is created over the Indian subcontinent. To fill up this void, the moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean rush in to the subcontinent. The ITCZ, which is sometimes also referred as monsoon trough also shifts northwards towards the subcontinent causing monsoon rains which typically reaches subcontinent's mainland in the last week of May or the first week of June. The metdepartment declares the onset of monsoon over Kerala if 60% of the 14 enlisted stations falling in the states report a rainfall of 2.5mm or more for any two consec ll of 2.5mm or more for any two consec utive days falling after 10 May.

What are the ways to forecast monsoon?

Generally there are three main approaches used for long range forecast of the southwest monsoon in India. The first is the statistical method which uses the historical relationships between southwest monsoon and various global weath er parameters. The historical data is then used to forecast the onset of the monsoon.The second approach is the empirical method which uses time series analysis of past rainfall data. The third is the dynamical method which uses general circula tion models of atmosphere and oceans to predict the southwest monsoons. It is observed that the prediction models based on statistical approach have so far yielded most accurate results for the Indian monsoon. However none of the models can claim 100% accuracy because there are several factors like the correlations between the parameters, changing predictability of the model over a period of time.

Which method is used by our met-department to forecast monsoon?

Prior to 2002 IMD used to issue annual forecast using a model based on 16 parameter but it failed in 2002. Since 2003 two new models were introduced which instead of 16 used 8 and 10 parameters to forecast the southwest monsoon in India. Apart from this a two stage forecast system was also introduced--the first stage forecast was issued in mid April and an update or second stage by the end of June. This model also gave false predictions for 2004. Since 2007 a new forecast system using ensemble technique is being used to forecast monsoon. At present monsoon is predicted on the basis of five predictors including the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between north Atlantic and north Pacific, Equatorial South Indian Ocean SST, East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure, Northwest Europe Land Surface Air Temperature and Equatorial Pacific Warm Water Volume at designated times of the year. Instead of relying on one model with best possible forecast, the ensemble method uses inputs from the forecast of all models to calculate the final result.

Kerala and the monsoon

Sudha Nambudiri, May 18, 2021: The Times of India

Infographics and lead: Sajeev Kumarapuram

As the rest of the country reels from the blistering heat, the southern state of Kerala is transitioning from a summer month to a pre-monsoon one, when the skies cloud up and the air smells of impending rain.

Most Keralites know that if it’s hot and sultry outside, even for a week, the clouds will soon give way to showers, bringing down the mercury levels. While the southwest monsoon is still far-off for the rest of the country, the Indian meteorological department (IMD), the country’s official weather agency, indicates a near normal or above normal rainfall this time around, news that has been greeted with much enthusiasm by the local fishermen and farming community.

For Kerala, which is the entry point to the Indian summer monsoon, the indications usually begin by May and June 1 is almost always the declared date of its arrival.

This, of course, varies depending on the ocean-atmospheric conditions in May. Interestingly, even though IMD has announced varying dates this year for when the monsoon will hit most states – which depends on 70 per cent of its rainfall from it – it is still June 1 for Kerala. Till 2005, the IMD would calculate the daily rainfall from seven monitoring stations in Kerala to declare the onset of monsoon. From 2006, however, a new criterion was devised, based on the daily rainfall in 14 stations across Kerala and neighbouring areas, along with measuring the wind field and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over southeast Arabian Sea.

The first alert comes almost ten days before, when the clouds swelled with rain make their presence felt in the Andaman sea. This is when the IMD issues an approximate date for its arrival. The monsoon winds then continue to cover the rest of the country, from south to north, and from east to west, by July 15, and by September 1, it slowly starts withdrawing.

In the earlier decades, the monsoon would hit Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam waters first, accompanied by strong winds and heavy rainfall for three-four days, before June 1. Coasts would be cleared and beaches would be closed in those regions as the state would prepare for the monsoon. But today records show it has moved upwards to Kochi and central Kerala.

In its report, “Observed rainfall variability and changes over Kerala state”, the IMD climate research centre has found changes in the monsoon patterns in the 30 years from 1989-2018. It also notes that Kerala receives its highest rainfall in July (32.9 per cent) followed by June.

“The most notable change in the behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon is that there is a significant rise in heavy rains along with a steady decline in total monsoon rainfall. Basically, rainfall patterns have changed, and we are having longer dry spells with intermittent heavy rainfall events,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, senior scientist, centre for climate change research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. “We find that this is due to rapid ocean warming that makes the monsoon circulation erratic.”

In recent years, monsoon trackers have been noting that the beginning of the monsoon is generally weak, but gradually picks up. Also, cyclonic systems forming in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal late May or early June are considerably affecting the monsoon circulation as well as the rainfall pattern.

“Arabian Sea has been witnessing the formation of cyclones along with the monsoon onset in Kerala,” said S Abhilash, associate professor, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR), Cochin University. “They disturb the basic monsoon state and, depending on the region of its formation, it can adversely affect the further northward progression of monsoon. Alternatively, when the cyclones form very close to the west coast and move parallel to it, they also help in the fast propagation of monsoon current Northwards.”

While scientists refuse to pin down the reason behind the change in the rainfall patterns, they admit to recording changes annually and seasonally too. “The variability has increased in the recent years,” added Abhilash. “For example, Kerala has witnessed occurrences of intense droughts (2015 and 2016) and floods (2018 and 2019) in the last 10 years. Even in intensity, extreme rain events have increased. Heavy rain days are increasing and light to moderate rainy days are decreasing. For example, a large rainfall deficit of 30 per cent is compensated in one or two intense heavy spells.”

While climate change is being pointed to as an indicator of these trends, scientists have been saying that changes in land use have contributed to the disruptions in natural systems. These land use changes become catastrophic in areas that are susceptible to natural hazards like landslides and floods.

“Kerala, which sees tropical monsoonal climate, and is sandwiched between the towering Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea, has three physiographic stretches viz, the coastal plains, the midlands and the highlands. Midlands, being a huge potential area for cash crops like rubber, population pressure, increased toward mountainous regions and coastal plains,” said Sajin Kumar K.S, adjunct assistant professor, department of Geological & Mining Engineering & Sciences, Michigan technological university. “These two physiographic regions are susceptible to landslides and floods, respectively. Hence any shifts in the natural vegetation in these regions will see catastrophic natural hazards similar to what occurred in 2018.”

The first alert comes almost ten days before the actual onset, when the clouds swelled with rain makes its presence felt in the Andaman sea According to him, a correlation of the land use of the Western Ghats part of Kerala, between 1973 and 2020, reveals that there is a shift in land use patterns, showing mainly a decrease in dense forest whereas increase in built-up areas. “Built-up area have shown a steep growth of approximately 300 per cent, and this could be at the expense of mixed vegetation, a common type of land use pattern seen in and around the households of Kerala,” he said.

Research also shows a threefold rise in heavy rains over the west coast and central/north India. “Climate change projections indicate that the number and intensity of heavy rains will continue to increase as manmade emissions continue unabated,” said Roxy Mathew Koll. “We need to utilise our monitoring and early warning systems efficiently so that we can take advance precautions and mitigate their impacts.”

History

 ‘Indian monsoon system 27 million years old’

Rohan Dua, February 20, 2021: The Times of India

For decades, the evolution of the Indian monsoon has not been entirely understood. Nor have scientists decoded how it intensified and how it has varied with time. By analysing sediment from the Bay of Bengal, researchers have found that the present Indian monsoon system goes back at least 27 million years.

“Previous studies only went as far back as 12 million years. They used wind and vegetation data, but that would not paint a clear picture of monsoon intensity,” corresponding author Sajid Ali from the Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeontology in Lucknow told TOI. “We analysed sediment from the Bay of Bengal. Change in sediment is directly linked to change in monsoon … The presence of minerals depends on the intensity of monsoon. Different minerals are formed when the monsoon is strong and others when it is weak.”

For the study, to be published in Wiley journal ‘Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology’, they collected 38 sediment samples under Japan’s International Ocean Discovery Program.

When they studied nano fossils (plankton which are one thousand millionth of a metre) from the bottom of the sediment deposits, “those were found to be 27 million years old,” Ali explained.

Factors that influence the monsoons

Dust, soot from West Asia affect monsoon in India

Summary

Dust & soot from West Asia affect monsoon in India, November 16, 2018: The Times of India

Dust and soot transported from the deserts of the Middle East settle on the snow cover of the Himalaya mountain range and affect the intensity of the summer monsoon in India, a study has found.

Using a powerful Nasadeveloped atmospheric model, researchers from University of Maryland in the US found that large quantities of dark aerosols — airborne particles such as dust and soot that absorb sunlight — settle on top of the Tibetan Plateau’s snowpack in spring before the monsoons begin.

These dark aerosols cause the snow to absorb more sunlight and melt more quickly. The findings suggest that, among these dark aerosols, windblown dust from the Middle East has the most powerful snow-darkening effect.

In years with heavy springtime dust deposition, the end result is reduced snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau, which leads to warmer temperatures on the ground and in the air above it.

Hundreds of studies have supported this relationship since British meteorologist Henry Blanford noted a connection between springtime Himalaya snow cover and the intensity of Indian monsoons. However, they have struggled to explain the reason for the same.

Researchers used the Goddard Earth Observing System Model to simulate 100 years’ worth of springtime snow cover and its influence on the yearly summer monsoon cycle. To test the effect of dust blown in from the Middle East, the researchers ran the same simulations again, with an added software package that incorporates the snowdarkening effects of dark aerosols deposited atop the Tibetan Plateau.

Adding dark aerosol deposition to the model substantially increased the amount of sunlight absorbed by the snow, accelerating the rate of melting. This is because when snow melts, it begins to expose the darker ground underneath, which absorbs even more sunlight and intensifies the rate of melting.

Researchers also found that the strongest effect in cycles when a large amount of dust settled on the snowpack in April, May and June.

Details

November 14, 2018: Science Daily

Source: University of Maryland

Middle Eastern desert dust on the Tibetan plateau could affect the Indian summer monsoon: New atmospheric modeling study could explain the mechanism behind a century-old hypothesis

New research led by William Lau, a research scientist at the University of Maryland's Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), provides a plausible mechanism to explain Blanford's observations. Surprisingly, the explanation involves dust transported from the deserts of the Middle East, more than a thousand miles away.

Using a powerful NASA-developed atmospheric model, Lau found that large quantities of dark aerosols -- airborne particles such as dust and soot that absorb sunlight -- settle on top of the Tibetan Plateau's snowpack in spring before the monsoons begin. These dark aerosols cause the snow to absorb more sunlight and melt more quickly. The model findings suggest that, among these dark aerosols, windblown dust from the Middle East has the most powerful snow-darkening effect.

In years with heavy springtime dust deposition, the end result is reduced snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau, which leads to warmer temperatures on the ground and in the air above it. This in turn sets off a series of interconnected feedback loops that intensify India's summer monsoon. A paper describing the research, co-authored by Kyu-Myung Kim of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, was published online November 12, 2018 in the journal Atmosphere.

"Blanford knew that snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau wasn't the only phenomenon that influenced the monsoon, but he knew it was important," Lau said. "The relationship between snow cover and the monsoon is useful enough that the India Meteorological Department still uses it to develop its annual summer monsoon forecast. By adding knowledge of the physical mechanism responsible for this relationship, our study may help to develop more accurate monsoon forecasts."

Lau and Kim used the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) to simulate 100 years' worth of springtime snow cover and its influence on the yearly summer monsoon cycle. To test the effect of dust blown in from the Middle East, the researchers ran the same simulations again, with an added software package that incorporates the snow-darkening effects of dust, soot and other dark aerosols deposited atop the Tibetan Plateau.

Adding dark aerosol deposition to the model substantially increased the amount of sunlight absorbed by the snow, accelerating the rate of melting. This is because when snow melts, it begins to expose the darker ground underneath, which absorbs even more sunlight and intensifies the rate of melting.

In addition to darkening the snow early in the season, the dust also strongly enhanced atmospheric warming of the Tibetan Plateau, leading to changes in wind patterns that intensify the peak monsoon. Notably, this series of feedbacks also strengthened the same winds that transport dust from the Middle Eastern deserts, bringing more dust and further enhancing the feedback loop.

According to Lau, many researchers contend that heavy monsoon rains should wash any airborne dust particles from the air, canceling out the dust's atmospheric heating effects and shutting down the feedback loop. But Lau and Kim's results suggest that enhanced winds transport enough dust to overwhelm this washout effect, leading to a net accumulation of dust on the Tibetan Plateau.

The timing of the dust's arrival was also important. Lau and Kim found the strongest effect in cycles when a large amount of dust settled on the snowpack in April, May and June.

"Every year was different in the model results. When dust arrived early in the season, it set up the initial conditions needed to change the monsoon dynamics," Lau said. "But in some years, late-season snowstorms at high altitudes covered the dust and shut down the feedback loop. It's very clear that there is a relationship between snow darkening by aerosols -- particularly Middle Eastern desert dust -- and the Indian monsoon season."

Lau and Kim acknowledge the need to move beyond modeling and investigate the connections between dark aerosols, heating and the monsoon cycle using other methods and new observations. But they are confident that their results -- which used real-world data to seed the GEOS-5 model -- could help inform monsoon prediction efforts now.

"This could be extremely important for agriculture. Farmers have to plan around the monsoon season to decide when to plant and when to harvest," Lau said. "In order to understand how human influences like climate change and land use affect the monsoon, we have to understand the basics -- including the effects of light-absorbing aerosols in darkening the snow on the Tibetan Plateau and in modulating the Asian summer monsoon. Such effects are so important that in the end, we may have to rewrite the curriculum for 'Monsoon 101.'"

Materials provided by University of Maryland. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Criteria used in deciding whether monsoon has arrived

See graphic, ' i) The criteria that IMD adopts to decide whether monsoon has arrived or not.
ii)The dates on which the monsoon normally reaches various parts of India. ',

The amount of rainfall

1901-2013: Monsoons that crossed the 100% mark

See graphics, '| Years of excessive rain and most deficient rain in monsoon season, 1901-2013 '

Since 1901, there have been 59 years when the monsoon has crossed 100% of the LPA. Since 2000, there have been only four years when monsoon crossed the 100% mark. These are 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2011. The projection is welcome news for the government as a stuttering monsoon can cast a long shadow on its political fortunes with growth slipping below 5% and high food inflation — prices for consumers rose 11.84% in June — proving a sizeable thorn in the side for UPA-2.

The government hopes the farm sector significantly improves on 2012’s 1.8% growth with R Rangarajan, chairman of the PM’s economic advisory council, saying a normal monsoon could even yield a 3.4% growth.

India: Back-to-back, ‘above normal’ monsoon after 1958-59

After 61 yrs, India gets back-to-back ‘above normal’ monsoon seasons, October 2, 2020: The Times of India

For the first time in 61 years, India recorded back-to-back “above normal” monsoon years, with this year’s season ending with countrywide rainfall at 9% above the long period average (LPA). Monsoon rains this year were also the second highest in 26 years after 2019, when rainfall across the country was 10% above the LPA. The last time India had two consecutive years of above normal monsoon was in 1958 (110% of LPA) and 1959 (114% of LPA). This year, an average of 95.8cm of rain was recorded in the country as against the LPA of 88cm.

Surplus rains in June, Aug & Sept

However, the distribution of seasonal rainfall during the June-September period was not uniform. The country recorded the highest 127% of LPA rainfall in August while July was a deficit month with 90% of LPA. The monsoon rainfall has to be between 96%-104% of LPA to be considered “normal” and between 104-110% of the LPA to be described as “above normal”. Anything more is termed “excess” rainfall.

In its first stage forecast for the seasonal rainfall issued in April, the IMD had predicted rains to be 100% of LPA (normal) with a model error of ± 5%. The forecast was upgraded to 102% of LPA, with a model error of ± 4%, in IMD’s update in May end. IMD also predicted a probability of 65% of monsoon rainfall to be “normal” to “above normal”. The actual seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole was 109% of LPA, which is more than the predicted value and thus turned out to be positive for the kharif (summer) crops.

Though India had recorded deficit rainfall in July, the surplus rains in June, August and September helped in the country recording an all-time high acreage. Based on it, the agriculture ministry has set a record target of 301 million tonnes of foodgrains for the 2020-21 crop year. The monsoon started retreating from western parts of north-west India on September 28 against the normal withdrawal date of September 17. As on Thursday, the south-west monsoon had withdrawn from Punjab, western Himalayan region, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and parts of Rajasthan and some parts of Uttar Pradesh.

Driest, wettest cities of India: Jun-Aug

See graphic, ' The driest and wettest cities of India during the monsoons '

Dates when monsoons reach different regions

In typical years

See graphic, ' The dates on which the monsoon normally reaches various parts of India. '

Years in which the monsoon arrived early

See graphic, ' Years in which the monsoon arrived early: 2011-2014'

Kerala, 2005-2017: actual dates

Delhi: 2007-12

See accompanying chart for Delhi The arrival of the monsoon in Delhi: 2007-12

Kerala: 2008-15, onset vs performance

See graphic, ' Date of onset of Monsoons in Kerala, 2008-15, vis-à-vis its all- India performance. There is no correlation between early or late arrival in Kerala and good or bad all- India performance'

2011-15: actual and forecast dates

See graphic, ' Onset date for Monsoons, actual and forecast, 2011-15, year-wise '

2012-20: Date of Monsoon covering entire country

Monsoon covers India 12 days in advance, fastest since 2013, June 27, 2020: The Times of India

22% Rain Surplus In June, Good Sign For Sowing

Pune/New Delhi:

In a swift and smooth advance through the country, the monsoon covered the whole of India, 12 days before the normal date of July 8, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

Along with 2015, when the monsoon had raced through the country on the same date, this was the fastest progression of the rain-bearing system since 2013.

In the past 13 years, the monsoon has covered the entire country before June 26 only once — in 2013, when a freak convergence of several weather systems had caused the catastrophic Kedarnath deluge while advancing the monsoon by an all-time record date of June 16.

IMD said the monsoon marched into the remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan to cover the entire country, 26 days after hitting the Kerala coast. This sets the stage for timely sowing of kharif crops across the country.

“This was one of the smoothest advances of the monsoon in recent years. Usually the monsoon progresses in fits and starts, but this year it did not stall for long at any stage,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster.

2020: 2 weeks early

Monsoon covers entire country nearly two weeks early: IMD, June 26, 2020: The Times of India

NEW DELHI: The Southwest Monsoon has covered the entire country nearly two weeks ahead of its schedule, the India Meteorological Department said.

The monsoon usually sets over Kerala on June 1 and it takes 45 days to reach Sriganganagar in west Rajasthan, its last outpost in the country.

From this year however, the IMD has advanced the onset date over Sriganganagar by a week and the new normal date for monsoon to cover the entire country is July 8.

"The Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab and thus it has covered the entire country today, June 26," the IMD said.

A low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, which moved west-northwestwards, and another cyclonic circulation over central India helped in advance of the monsoon.

In 2013, the monsoon had covered the entire country on June 16. This had also coincided with the deadly Uttarakhand flash floods.

"After 2013, monsoon has covered the country so rapidly this year," IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said.

2020: progress across India

See graphic:

Progress of Southwest Monsoon 2020- Advance (See above) and Withdrawal (See below)

Monsoon cycle

The Times of India , Jun 02 2015

If after May 10, 60% of 14 stations -Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore -report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, the onset of the monsoon is declared on the second day. Normally, the monsoon sets in over Kerala around June 1 and then advances northwards. By June 5, it goes past half of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh and crosses Maharashtra by the 10th.It covers significant portions of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh by June 15 and the entire country by June-end.

The El Niño effect

1951-2017: El Niño Vs. IOD

See graphic:

Impact of the El-Nino on Indian monsoons, 1951-2017

1970-2015

Amit Bhattacharya, Does IMD forecast signal monsoon acing El Nino in ’19?, April 17, 2019: The Times of India

IMD has forecast a “near normal” monsoon this year while also indicating that a weak El Nino is likely to persist through the rainy season. If both forecasts hold true, it would be only the second time in nearly 50 years that India will have a normal monsoon in an El Nino year.

There have been nine El Nino years since 1970, and only once has the Indian summer monsoon remained unscathed from its influence. That was in 1997, when despite one of the strongest El Ninos, the monsoon ended 2% above normal.

In the other eight instances, the June-September rains in India were hit irrespective of El Nino’s strength — weak, moderate or strong — indicating a strong link between the weather anomaly in the Pacific and monsoon’s performance in India.

El Nino is an abnormal warming of ocean waters in east and central equatorial Pacific that drives changes in wind currents which, in turn, have weather impact around the world.

Apart from 1997, other instances of good monsoons during El Nino years are all from the 1950s and 60s. “There are two years when the monsoon was normal or above normal during a weak El Nino, 1953 and 1969. This year’s El Nino is also predicted to be weak,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forcaster. The monsoon also defied El Nino in 1957 and 1963, IMD records show.

However, the link between El Nino and poor monsoon appears to have strengthened in recent decades. All four El Ninos since year 2000 have adversely impacted rainfall in India. This includes a weak episode in 2004, which led to a drought year with the monsoon ending at 14% below normal.

In recent years, just a warming in the Pacific, which didn’t result in an El Nino, is believed to have impacted the monsoon in 2012 and 2014. However, every El Nino is unique with its own peculiarities. How it plays out, and whether large-scale features that depress the monsoon actually develop, remains to be seen.

How the monsoons control our destiny

1950-2010: India’s growth rate in drought years

See graphic ‘Growth rate in drought years in India and monsoon departure from normal’

Why Monsoon Matters Beyond The Farm

1965-2010

June 11, 2018: The Times of India

Amid hopes that the projected 97% monsoon will fuel growth, here’s a look at monsoon’s role in India’s economy

How does the monsoon affect India’s economy?

The monsoon’s failure is often linked to the economy’s overall performance. It is not the agricultural sector alone that is affected by a bad monsoon — industry too suffers as lower farm output decreases demand from this sector, which employs half the country’s workforce. Contrasting GDP growth rates with drought years since 1951-52 reveals growth is sluggish in drought years. In recent years this correlation has become weaker, which may be linked to the fact that agriculture’s share in GDP has also fallen. But it continues to employ half of India’s workforce.

Is there a major difference between agricultural output in Kharif and Rabi seasons?

Over the past decade, the share of Kharif (monsoon) crops in the national output have fallen, while Rabi (winter) crops are on the rise. Crops like rice and maize, which grow in monsoon and winter, have seen a marked decline in Kharif output, while the share of their Rabi output has risen. Exclusively Rabi crops, such as wheat, remain unaffected by monsoons.

What is the Indian monsoon?

The southwest monsoon is a summertime reversal in wind direction that provides nearly 70% of the Indian subcontinent’s annual rainfall. Monsoon winds originate from the southern Indian Ocean. They get deflected southwestwards towards India after crossing the equator. These winds are driven by air pressure differences caused by the more rapid heating up of the land in summers compared to the ocean. The land heats up the air over it, causing it to rise and create a low-pressure zone, which attracts winds from the highpressure regions over the ocean. In south Asia, the effect is enhanced by the Tibetan plateau, which heats up more than the atmosphere would at its height. Monsoon has a set pattern of advance and withdrawal. It arrives in southern India in May or June, and advances northwards and westwards, reaching Pakistan by July. It retreats from Pakistan by September, finally withdrawing from southern India by December. The season doesn’t see a continuous deluge, but has alternate wet and dry phases, the timing and duration of which account for much of the year-to-year variation in monsoon rains.

What are the country’s wettest and driest states?

Mawsynram, a village in Meghalaya is the world’s wettest place. Meghalaya receives the country’s highest rainfall followed by Goa and Sikkim. The national capital on the other hand was among the driest states in 2016.

2008-19

April 6, 2019: The Times of India

See graphic:

How monsoon affects our lives in India, 2008-19

Skymet, a private weather forecaster, has predicted the likelihood of below-normal rains this year, particularly in the central and eastern regions. The forecaster pegged rainfall in the country during the 2019 monsoon (June-September) at 93% of the long-period average (LPA) of 887 mm. LPA is defined as the average annual rainfall over a 50-year period. There is a a 55% probability that the total rainfall will be below normal and a 15% probability of drought. What is a normal monsoon

India defines average, or normal rainfall as between 96-104% of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season beginning June until September. Anything less than 90% is a 'deficient' monsoon, while 90-96% is considered 'below normal'. An average between 104-110% is 'above normal' and anything above 110% is 'excess'. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the country's official weather forecaster, will issue its monsoon outlook later this month. A good monsoon which waters more than half of the country's farmland is essential to boost consumption and economy. Even though farming output makes up just less than 14% of India's economy, the sector employs more than half of the country's 1.3 billion population. Here's a look at how the adequacy of monsoons has affected key indicators of the economy in the past 10 years.

1. RAINFALL

The country narrowly escaped a drought in 2018, following two successive years of normal rains. Skymet's forecast of a below normal monsoon in 2019 is on account of a developing El Nino phenomenon, when warm waters in the Pacific Ocean impact summer rains in India. "The Pacific Ocean has become strongly warmer than average. This means, it is going to be a devolving El Nino year," said Jatin Singh, Skymet's managing director. "But even if it is a mild El Nino, it will have its impact on rainfall," added GP Sharma, Skymet's president of meteorology.

2. AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION

The monsoon delivers about 70% of India's annual rainfall and is key to the success of the agriculture sector, There is a 75% probability of below normal rainfall this June, which could decrease to 55% in July, the two months when rains are critical for the sowing of kharif (summer) crops. The monsoon is then likely to pick up pace in August and September, during which El Nino will begin to decay. Every year of below-normal monsoon badly affects foodgrain output. Farm output suffers majorly in a drought year, when rainfall is more than 10% below normal, like in 2014-15 and 2015-16. Both years -- the first two of PM Narendra Modi's tenure -- saw negative growth in farm production, but recovered substantially in the 2016-17.

3. AGRICULTURE GDP

Thanks to price support, the Gross Value Added (GVA) of agriculture output is less adversely affected by poor rainfall than farm output is.

4. FOOD INFLATION

Food prices are less affected by monsoon due to buffer stocks and import. Other factors that drive food inflation in India -- rural wages, minimum support prices (MSP), agriculture input costs and global food prices.

First, rural wages are important because human labour accounts for 25-20% of the total cost of cultivation of crops such as rice and wheat. Second, MSP directly feeds into food inflation by forming a floor for wholesale food prices. Third, agriculture input costs such as electricity, diesel, pesticides and machinery also impact food inflation. Fourth, global food prices are important because of their influence on products that India imports and because international prices are one of the factors used to determine the MSPs of crops.

5. RURAL WAGES

Since food inflation and rural wages are correlated, with a fall in inflation, rural wage growth too has slowed down.

6. GDP

Largely due to the shrinking share (about 17-18%) of agriculture in India's GDP, the monsoon's direct impact on the GDP has weakened over the years.

Monsoon and agriculture

1986-2015

See graphic, ' Monsoons in India: Geographical spread, monsoon and foodgrains, monsoon and vegetables, monsoon and fruits, monsoon and food prices and monsoon and farm GDP: 1986-2015'

2004-09

See graphic, ' Rain and grain: 2004-09 '

2006-16

See the graphic 'How monsoon affects farming, 2006-16'

Monsoon break

Definition

A monsoon break — a period when rain activity comes to a stop in most of central India, the region where the monsoon trough is formed — is a common occurrence during the season. “The monsoon has been active without a break since mid-June. This does not happen often and is a reason why the rains were higher than the predicted 101% of LPA for July,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster. (By Amit Bhattacharya)

Monsoons without a break

2003-2010

Non-stop monsoon marches on

Amit Bhattacharya TNN

The Times of India 2013/08/16

One or two periods of a break in monsoon — defined as three straight days of very low rain activity across central India — are common during the rainy season. Since 2000, there have only been three years when there was no monsoon break. And all three years coincided with plentiful rains.

“Two months of monsoon activity without a break is rather rare. It’s an indication of agood monsoon,” said M Rajeevan, senior weather scientist at the earth sciences ministry.

At least four factors have worked in favour of the monsoon in 2013. The first good sign was an absence of El Nino — an anomalous rise in ocean surface temperatures in the east Pacific that is linked to monsoon failure in India.

Currently, weak La Nina conditions exist in the Pacific, which is the opposite of El Nino and is known to help the monsoon here.

“Then, typhoons breaking out over the south Pacific this season have also helped because these have generally moved in a direction that reinforces the Indian monsoon. This is consistent with the weak La Nina conditions,” said Rajeevan.

More importantly, what has helped sustain the rains — and distribute it more or less evenly across the region — has been a series of low pressure formations over the Bay of Bengal that have travelled westwards at regular intervals.

“There have been an unusually high number of low pressure systems, along with cyclonic circulation over land. These have nurtured the monsoon this year, especially in the interior regions of south and central India,” said Pai.

Lastly, Pai said a strong Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon first helped accelerate the rain coverage over the country, and also brought good rains over the west coast.

Monsoons in Chennai

2007-2018

See graphic:

Rain Chennai got from the Southwest monsoon, 2007-2018

Monsoons in Punjab, Haryana

1980- 2010

See graphic, ' Monsoons in Punjab, Haryana: 1980- 2010 '

1999-2014

See graphic, ' Monsoons in Punjab, Haryana: 1999-2014 '

16-year trend of poor monsoon in Punjab, Haryana

Amit Bhattacharya New Delhi The Times of India Sep 22 2014

India's bread basket states of Punjab and Haryana received just around half the normal rainfall this monsoon season. But more worryingly , this year's rain deficit is not an isolated event. The two key agricultural states have been getting below par rainfall for the past 16 years.

Met department figures reveal Punjab has seen above normal monsoon rainfall in just two years since 1999. The last time that happened was seven monsoons ago, in 2008.The stats are similar for Haryana, where rains have been above normal in just four of the last 16 monsoons.

Experts are divided over why rains have been consistently failing in the region but the trend has dire implications for agriculture, which relies heavily on groundwater. The two states are among the most exploited regions in the world for groundwater.

Deficient rains add another dimension to the crisis.Groundwater mainly de pends on rainfall for recharge. So, less rain means less groundwater availability .A failed monsoon also means farmers draw more ground water to irrigate their crops, particularly paddy , accelerating the fall of the water table.

At TOI's request, Prof Krishna AchutaRao from IIT Delhi's Centre for Atmospheric Sciences plotted the annual and seasonal rainfall in the two states since 1980.The rain stats were obtained from the India Meteorological Department. A linear graph reveals a disturbing trend of decreasing rains in the bread basket of India. It shows average annual rainfall in Punjab falling during this period from just over 800mm in 1980 to less than 600mm in 2014 — a drop of roughly 200mm. Haryana’s annual average shows a similar drop, from around 780mm in 1980 to less than 580mm at present.

For monsoon season rainfall, Punjab has seen a drop of nearly 120mm, from an average of around 600mm in 1980 to roughly 480mm this year.

In Haryana, it’s down from more than 600mm to around 470mm during the same 35year period.

“The long term decrease in rainfall is apparent from the graph,” says AchutaRao, “although the rain statistics for the 1980s show very high variation.” But what’s not so apparent is the cause of the decline.

D Sivananda Pai, head of long range forecasting at IMD Pune, believes the drop is part of natural variability which will get reversed in time.

“Indian monsoon is passing through a low rainfall epoch since the 1990s. The drop in rainfall in this region could be part of that phenom enon,“ says Pai.

The story may not be that straightforward, says AchutaRao, who is coordinating multi-agency research into the Indian monsoon.

Monsoon/ water cycle

Let’s respect the water cycle

Amit Bhattacharya | TNN 2010

Think of water and chances are you wouldn’t picture a farmer digging a tubewell. Most urban Indians can’t think beyond their own water woes — dry taps; waking up at odd hours to tank up for the day. Yet, 80% of all the water India uses goes into agriculture. But even so, 60% of our farmlands remain dependent on the rains. Just as water evaporates, it seems, so do the resources that go into water management in the countryside.

The scale of this ‘evaporation’ is so massive it is surprising the issue hasn’t generated more public debate. Nothing illustrates this better than the money spent on canals. In the 15 year-period from 1991-92 to 2006-07, the government spent Rs 1.3 lakh crore on major and medium irrigation projects without achieving any net increase in the irrigated area!

If anything, India’s total canalirrigated area has decreased from 17,791,000 hectares in 1991-91, to 16,531,000 hectares in 2007-08, according to provisional figures released by the agriculture ministry. The story behind this dubious feat encapsulates almost everything that’s wrong with water planning and use in agriculture.

Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator for South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, should know. Last year, he co-authored a paper that contained exactly those startling statistics. He says it’s not about too few new canals but about “many old ones have stopped functioning, at least partially, due to siltation, lack of maintenance and faulty assumptions of water use. Then there are water management and sharing issues. Often there’s intensive water use in upstream areas which leaves no water at the tail-ends.”

Thakkar says it boils down to bad investment decisions. “The government keeps pushing for big irrigation projects without taking care of the existing ones, which in itself is a huge task. According to a 2005 World Bank report, the annual maintenance bill for India’s canal network comes to around Rs 17,000 crore. Less than 10% of that money is available,” he says.

Experts lament that new irrigation projects often fail to take into account the larger hydrological processes they would affect. They also pay little attention to water-use patterns. This has led to river basins such as the Krishna becoming over-irrigated.

Planning Commission member Mihir Shah calls such policy practices “hydroschizophrenia (or) a schizophrenic view of an indivisible resource like water, failing to recognize the unity and integrity of the hydrologic cycle.”

Shah elaborates: “It’s a strange situation. Water management in villages comes under two ministries — rural development ministry and ministry of water resources. Often the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing.”

Both Shah and Thakkar say the first step in dealing with the crisis is accepting ground realities. “While huge amounts are spent on canal systems, groundwater has emerged as the dominant method of irrigation,” says Thakkar. The latest official figures show that more than 60% of India’s 62 million irrigated hectares is fed by groundwater.

With no regulation, this has obvious perils. In August, two independent studies used satellite data from GRACE or the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment to show that northern India was losing more groundwater than anywhere else in the world except for the Arctic ice sheets. One of the studies put the annual net groundwater loss in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan at 109 cubic km, which is roughly equivalent to 109 billion tonnes. The water table has dropped dramatically in many areas and this is one of main problems Indian agriculture faces today.

Thakkar identifies four urgent policy measures: “Ensure that our old water recharge systems are sustained and enhanced, develop new recharge systems and harvest water where it falls, regulate groundwater use and, lastly, massively promote conservation methods like drip irrigation and rice intensification.”

Shah, who has been asked by the Prime Minister to write a paper for the National Development Council on a holistic water policy, says it's possible for agriculture to grow even as water use falls. “In Australia, water consumption in agriculture has reduced by 30% in the past 20 years. If they can do it, so can we,” he says.

But for that to happen, water policy has to become participatory. “The irrigation department, which is managed by civil engineers, needs to recruit people managers who understand local needs and sentiments,” concludes Shah.

It will make all the difference to a thirsty nation and parched fields.

TOTAL AREA IRRIGATED BY CANALS 1991-92: 17.8 mn hectares 2006-07: 16.8 mn hectares Amount spent on irrigation projects from 1991-92 to 2006-07: Rs 1.3 lakh crore

INFLATION IN IRRIGATION Nagarjunasagar project (AP) Original cost (pre-fifth Plan):

Rs 91.12cr Latest estimates*: Rs 1,184cr Increase: 1299%

Western Kosi canal (Bihar) Original cost: Rs 13.49cr Latest estimates: Rs 904cr Increase: 6701%

Barnar (Bihar) Original cost (in seventh Plan): Rs 8.03cr Latest estimates*: Rs 216.23cr Increase: 2689%

• All ‘latest estimates’ as on 2003, according to Planning Commission document

Monsoon: floods

Every monsoon means flood of bad news

Shobhan Saxena | TNN 2010

In the great plains of India, there is nothing romantic about the monsoon. People’s fate depends on the monsoon’s mood swings. If it fails to keep its date with the country, there is drought. If it’s over generous, the floods cause death and destruction. Even when it’s “normal”, some river somewhere exceeds the danger mark and kills a few hundred people. After the skies clear and the water recedes, armies of mosquitoes and bugs launch attacks. Millions fall prey with chills, cramps, fever. In this part of the world, drought, deluge and death are as much an annual phenomenon as the monsoon.

Bangladesh may be famous for its notorious floods, but India is not far behind. Every year, the monsoon floods leave a trail of destruction in India. Roughly 20% of deaths caused by flooding worldwide occur here; some 30 million people are evacuated every year. Every year witnesses an “unprecedented flood”. Every other year the “worst flood in living memory” leaves scores dead. Is India becoming ever more vulnerable to monsoon fury?

No, say Vinod K Sharma and A D Kaushik of the National Centre for Disaster Management in a recent paper on floods in India. They argue that states did not appear quite as vulnerable as before because there was less developmental activity and population pressure. “However, in the present time, unabated population and high rate of developmental activities forced on the occupation of flood plains has made the society highly vulnerable to flood losses,” they wrote.

In 2009, the monsoon was weak and deficient but it caused floods, deaths and displacement in Orissa, Kerala, Karnataka, Gujarat and the north-eastern states. In 2008, the monsoon was normal, but Bihar faced the worst flood crisis ever as the Kosi breached its embankment, changed course and deluged several districts, leaving hundreds dead and three million homeless.

‘Normal’ monsoons

2009-18: normalcy is a myth

February 12, 2020: The Times of India

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said the country is likely to have a ‘near normal’ monsoon this year at 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) -- an encouraging signal for farmers and the overall economy.

A normal monsoon is considered to be 96-104% of the LPA of 89 cm for the entire four-month season beginning June to September. Above-normal is 104-110%, below-normal is 90-96% and deficient (drought) is below 90%. LPA is defined as the average annual rainfall over a 50-year period between 1951 and 2000.

Of the past 10 years, India's crucial monsoon rain has been below normal in six years. IMD divides the country into 36 meteorological sub-divisions, mostly corresponding with state boundaries, with bigger states being divided into 2 or 3 sub-divisions, based on climatological uniformity. In poor monsoon years, some 6-7 sub-divisions suffer more than others, the data shows. On the brighter side, two of India’s driest regions have received relatively good rains during this period.

A look at the monsoon pattern from 2009-2018:

2009

An El Nino year that saw the weakest monsoon and the worst drought in 37 years, in which 23 sub-divisions received deficient rains.

2010

2010 was a vast improvement from the previous year; 14 subdivisions (in blue) had excess rainfall.

2011

Probably the best monsoon year of this period with the most well-distributed rainfall. No subdivision apart from the northeast (in red) had deficient rains.

2012

Monsoon came under the shadow of a warming Pacific although El Nino did not develop. Thirteen sub-divisions received deficient rains in 2012 and only Andaman & Nicobar Islands saw a surplus. 2013

The strongest monsoon of the period, with the earliest onset in decades over north India. Cloudbursts caused the deluge in Kedarnath, Uttarakhand. Swathes of blue across the country meant 14 regions received more rain than initially expected.

2014

A drought year with monsoon hit by evolving El Nino conditions that didn't eventually form. After several years of poor monsoon, the northeast received normal rains, but 11 regions saw a deficit.

2015

An El Nino year that lead to the second straight drought year. Agriculture output dipped and water shortages abounded. Poor rains struck 17 sub-divisions, this included the west coast. Rajasthan, in blue, was the only area that got excess rains. 2016 First normal monsoon in three years saw good rains in central India. Agriculture output grew after a two-year lows . Four regions saw excess rainfall. 2017

It was a below-normal monsoon year with most of the north and parts of central India in rain shadow. Five sub-divisions saw excess rains, while more than two-thirds of India, or 25 sub-divisions, had normal rains.

2018

2018 was the second below-normal monsoon year in a row. However, rains were better distributed than in 2017, with north India, for once, getting satisfactory rainfall. Twelve regions saw deficits. Kerala, however, saw excess rainfall which led to devastating floods.

Haryana, Punjab among worst-hit regions

Vidarbha makes news for farmer suicides but rains have failed in the sub-division in just 2 years over the past decade. The story is much bleaker in neighbouring Marathwada.

Most subdivisions in the above list are invariably the hardest hit during weak monsoon years. Regions that received excess rains

Konkan and Goa, India’s second wettest sub-division had excess rains in four of the past 10 years, increasing the threat of floods, particularly in Mumbai.

Surprisingly, two of India’s driest regions have clocked excess rainfall on most years since 2009. Average rainfall in West Rajasthan is just 263.2mm during June-Sept, making it the driest sub-division of India. Saurashtra and Kutch is at No. 4 (average rainfall 477.5mm).

How accurate are weather forecasters?

IMD's forecast for 2019 directly challenges the prediction of India's only private sector weather forecaster, Skymet, which is slightly more pessimistic with a forecast of 93%. Both the IMD and Skymet have hit the bull's eye an equal number of times in the last six years. IMD was off the mark in 2014, 2015 (which turned out to be drought years) and 2018, which narrowly escaped a drought.

2019/ New norms

Vishwa.Mohan , Sep 29, 2019: The Times of India

Every year, the weather department benchmarks that season’s rainfall against a ‘normal’ derived from long period average (LPA) of 50 years. This has now been revised downward from 89 cm to 88 cm.

“The LPA of 88 cm is the new normal. The India Meteorological Department will release its final monsoon report using this new normal,” Madhavan Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, told TOI. The IMD had arrived at the 89-cm figure based on average rainfall during 1951-2000 period. The new average figure of 88 cm is based on rainfall during 1961-2010 period, reflecting a decline in average rainfall in India.

’19 monsoon set for ‘above normal’ tag

The IMD has five categories to tell the ‘status’ of monsoon. Rainfall range of less than 90% of the LPA normal is considered ‘deficient’; 90-96% of the LPA is called ‘below normal’, 96-104% of the LPA is categorized as ‘normal’, 104-110% of the LPA as ‘above normal’ and more than 110% as ‘excess’. “The five categorisations will, however, remain the same. Only LPA has changed,” said the MoES secretary.

Rajeevan added that the 2019 monsoon was most likely to be ‘above normal’ as this year the country got more rain “because of positive Indian-Ocean Dipole (IOD)”. IOD is a sea surface warming phenomenon also called ‘El Nino of the Indian Ocean’. On the new LPA normal, he said the IMD had already started using it for its daily rainfall report. “It changes the ‘normal’ roughly every 10 years or so and starts using it whenever the data of all meteorological stations get updated using the new 50-year period,” said Rajeevan.

Number of rainy days…

…in a typical June, July or August

See graphic, ' Average monsoon rainfall and number of rainy days in major Indian cities, and towns with the highest rainfall in India, in June, July, August '

…in June, July and August, 2015

The Times of India, May 30 2015

India receives most of the rainfall in four monsoonal months-June, July, August and September. The Met department defines normal monsoon to be 96 to 104% of the long period average, usually the average monsoon over 30 years. If the rainfall deficiency is more than 10%, it would typically be called a drought year. Last year's monsoon was deficient by 12%. This year's monsoon rainfall is predicted to be 93% of the average. If this year's monsoon deficiency crosses 10%, it will be one more year of drought, making it two successive years of drought, an event that has happened only three times in the past 113 years (1904-05, 1965-66 and 1986-87). In 1917, monsoon exceeded normal by the highest percentage (22.9) in 113 years. In 1918, monsoon was deficient by 24.9%, the highest deficiency for this period

‘Neutral’ years

1997-2017: vis-à-vis El Nino, La Nina years

Amit Bhattacharya, In ‘neutral’ years, monsoon isn’t always normal, April 17, 2018: The Times of India’'

Neither El Nino nor La Nina is expected to impact the monsoon this year, the met department said on Monday. While such ‘neutral’ years are generally associated with normal rainfall, a look at the past 21-year record shows a wide variation in monsoon’s performance.

From 1997 to 2017, there were 10 neutral years during which the monsoon varied between 88% of average (drought) to 106% (above normal). On the whole, the mean monsoon performance during these neutral years was 97.5% of the long period average (LPA), which is in the lower end of the normal range (96%- 104%) — indicating that monsoons have been generally depressed in the current era.

The mean monsoon output in the neutral years, however, is way above that of El Nino years (86%) and below the mean for La Nina years (99%). These differences highlight the strong connection of the Indian monsoon with El Nino and La Nina, which are opposite conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

El Nino is an abnormal warming of surface waters in the east and central equatorial Pacific which negatively impacts the monsoon. La Nina is the opposite — an abnormal cooling of waters that aids the monsoon. As the 21-year data shows, there are years when this relationship doesn’t hold.

However, the monsoon’s performance varies significantly during the neutral years as well. These variations are a result of many other local and large-scale factors. Among the large scale factors is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is expected to be weakly negative during the second half of this year’s monsoon. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase is seen to generally aid the monsoon while a negative phase could depress rains.

Another highly unpredictable condition with sharp, although short, impacts on rainfall is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a periodic eastward moving weather disturbance close to the equator. MJOs can depress or enhance rainfall for a week or two, depending on their position and strength. Slow-moving or stationary MJOs can have longer impacts. A well-positioned MJO can invigorate the monsoon while its absence tends to prolong breaks in monsoon rains. MJOs, however, are very hard to predict.

Finally, the distribution and intensity of monsoon rains comes down to the number of low-pressure systems and depressions coming inland from the Bay of Bengal. During active monsoon periods, the frequency of these systems are usually high. On some occasions, even winds from the northwest (western disturbances) affect rainfall.

The interplay of all these factors make monsoon forecasting a highly hazardous profession.

In 2015

See graphic:

Rainfall, June 1-August 16, 2015

Pre-monsoon rainfall

2009-19

Neha Madaan, June 2, 2019: The Times of India

See graphic, 'Pre-monsoon rainfall in India: 2009-19'

2019: India’s 2nd driest pre-monsoon since 1954

Neha Madaan, June 2, 2019: The Times of India Rains delayed, India sees 2nd driest pre-monsoon in 65 years

With the onset of monsoon around the corner and only 99mm of rainfall so far, the country is experiencing the second driest pre-monsoon spell in 65 years, India Meteorological Department (IMD) data shows. Since 1954 — when the country experienced 93.9mm of rainfall in the pre-monsoon season of March, April and May — showers have dipped below the three-figure mark only in 2009 (99mm), 2012 (the driest at 90.5mm) and 2019 (99mm).

The highest deficiency has been witnessed in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, Konkan-Goa, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry, among others.

Parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, western Uttar Pradesh, north interior Karnataka, Telangana, and Rayalaseema (in Andhra Pradesh) also recorded deficient pre-monsoon rainfall, though it was better than what the entirety of Maharashtra experienced.

Pulak Guhathakurta, head of Climate Application and User Interface at IMD’s Office of Climate Research and Services, told TOI that past research has revealed a trend of dipping premonsoon rainfall over the past century in western India, especially Maharashtra. “However, such a trend has not been observed across the entire country till now. This may have something to do with the shifting of the rainfall pattern,” Guhathakurta said.

He said pre-monsoon rains were mainly important for agriculture, groundwater recharge and to maintain soil moisture. "Pre-monsoon rains tend to allay some of the severe water shortage problem in a region. Even deficient pre-monsoon rainfall can go a long way in maintaining the soil moisture necessary for agriculture. Over the past 11 years, Maharashtra got most of its monsoon rainfall in just one or two months, with heavy to very heavy showers in short bursts. This poses a flood risk and also, much of the water is wasted," he explained.

"In the four regions of the country, the maximum premonsoon rainfall deficiency has been witnessed in the southern peninsula (-48% ), followed by northwest India (-29%), Central India (-17%) and east and northeast India (-12%). Parts of north Rajasthan, northern and central MP, southern UP, southern Punjab and Haryana, had good rains,” Anupam Kashyapi from IMD, Pune, said.

Monsoons in Mumbai

‘Extremely heavy’ rain days

2009-19

Richa Pinto , Sep 29, 2019: The Times of India

The city recorded as many as five “extremely heavy” rain days this monsoon, when over 200mm of downpour lashed the city within a 24-hour span and disrupted daily life. The numbers are worrisome—and worthy of Swedish 16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg’s attention when one considers that the eight preceding “extremely heavy” rain days occurred over a stretchedout period of a decade, from 2009 to 2018.

“The overall trend in the last decade shows an increase in extreme heavy rainfall events not only in Mumbai but all over the country, which is an impact of climate change,” said R V Sharma, former deputy director general of IMD Mumbai. Mumbai’s Monsoon 2019 began on an unusual note: Rains arrived in the city on June 25—one of the most delayed onset dates in 45 years—against the traditional deadline of June 10. Moreover, it has been characterized by unusual weather patterns—one day saw a downpour of 350mm—that have been discussed at several levels, including BMC commissioner Pravin Pardeshi’s office during “debriefing” sessions for civic engineers.

Weather scientists say rains have been “hyperactive” in 2019 but aren’t sure if this is a one-off occurrence or could become a pattern. K S Hosalikar, deputy director-general (western region), IMD, has another observation: On the five “extremely heavy” rainfall days, the downpour was restricted to a few hours. For instance, the city got 200mm of rain in the six hours between 11.30pm and 5.30am on July 2. On September 4, around 121mm of rain was recorded between 8.30am and 11.30am. “Most rain received this year were either in the ‘very heavy’ or ‘extremely heavy’ rainfall categories. At a time when we are talking of climate change and global warming, the first thing to occur is the increase in precipitation and that too in short spells, which we are seeing happen now,” he said.

It is to escape the flooding caused by such intense downpours that 66-year-old Surindra Khubchandani moved from his flat in Jay Bharat society, Khar, to 15th Road, Santacruz. “Here, floodwaters drain out faster,” he said.

As not many Mumbaikars can move homes like Khubchandani, the BMC has held brainstorming sessions on how to work around these intense downpours.

A special report on ‘Oceans and Cryosphere’ released by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that extreme sea level events that took place once in a century would occur every year by mid-century in several regions, increasing the risk of flooding in low-lying coastal cities. Akshay Deoras, a PhD student in the department of meteorology, University of Reading, UK, blamed “cyclonic circulations” around the city for the extremely heavy rainfall. Monsoon has been almost “hyperactive” this year, he said. Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, Meteorology And Climate Change of Skymet Weather Services, concurred: “This year saw an extreme weather event every month.”

In July, weather scientists noticed the building up of numerous weather systems affecting Maharashtra and particularly north Konkan (which includes Mumbai) and Goa. “Many low-pressure areas formed over the Bay of Bengal and traveled in the westerly direction while they usually travel northwest,” said Palawat.

Former IMD official Sharma said while “breaks” in monsoon have been common, there was no long break this year. Sridhar Balasubramanian, associate professor, department of mechanical engineering and associate faculty IDP Climate Studies, IIT Bombay, said, “We cannot avoid extreme weather events but at least control the way water reaches the right source. Our cities are seeing increasing concretisation and that will affect the local cloud pattern. Soil is getting depleted and not able to hold the rainwater. The water therefore just runs down and unless the sun comes out, it evaporate.”

2019: suburbs receive far more rain than central, southern Mumbai

Richa Pinto, August 17, 2019: The Times of India

The monsoon has been marked by extreme rain days this year, with some areas of Mumbai recording over 400 mm of rainfall over 24 hours. But the pattern has not been uniform. Rain data from the onset of the rainy season till now shows that suburban areas like Vikrohli, Dindoshi, Kandivli, Borivli and Mulund have recorded the maximum rain in the city, while Mumbai’s central and southern parts have received less rain in comparison (see graphic).

The weather bureau and climate experts said this has a lot to do with the topography and layout of the suburbs, like hills and large green areas, and the presence of water bodies. In comparison, they said, the island city has more built-up area and less green cover. Wind patterns, too, differ. “Climatologically also, city-side rainfall is less than in the suburbs. Besides, the other core reason for suburbs witnessing more rainfall is local topography. The Sanjay Gandhi National Park, the Aarey Milk Colony are all large expanses of green, the equivalents of which don’t exist in the island city. Then there are water bodies like Powai lake as well,” said K S Hosalikar, deputy director general (western region), India Meteorological Department.

As a result, clouds are observed more towards the suburbs whenever there is a weather system over central India. “Hills influence weather and the Konkan belt is a perfect example of orographic enhancement of rainfall (orographic lift occurs when an air mass is forced from a low elevation to a higher elevation as it moves over rising terrain). In Mumbai’s case, hills such as those within the national park, although not as high as in the Western Ghats proper, massively enhance rainfall in the suburbs,” said Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist and doctoral student at the University of Reading, UK. “Enhancement is often visible when suburbs’ seasonal or sub-seasonal rainfall is compared to that of south Mumbai, which mostly has a flat terrain.”

Withdrawl of monsoons

Delhi

2010- 2020

See graphic:

The withdrawal date of Monsoons in India, 2010- 2020

2020: 13 days late

October 28, 2020: The Times of India

Southwest monsoon withdraws, 13 days after normal schedule

NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon finally withdrew from the entire country on Wednesday, 13 days after its normal date of final withdrawal. With the final withdrawal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the northeast monsoon, a phenomenon that brings rainfall in extreme south peninsular India, has commenced. Analysis of withdrawal dates of southwest monsoon from the entire country during 1975-2020 period shows that the 2010 had seen the most delayed withdrawal on October 29.

Like this year, the withdrawal date in 2016 was also October 28 while 2000 and 2017 had seen it on October 25. Predicting weather conditions during next few days, the IMD said, “Scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorm and lightning is very likely over Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next five days with isolated heavy falls over south Tamil Nadu on October 29.”

YEAR-WISE DATA

1901-2013

1901-2013: There are two detailed, year-wise graphics elsewhere on this page.

Years of excessive rain and most deficient rain in monsoon season, 1901-1945

and

Years of excessive rain and most deficient rain in monsoon season, 1946-2013

1988-2019: the wettest July-Aug

See graphic:

The wettest July-August between 1988 and 2019
July-Aug rainfall in 2019.

2009-18

See graphic:

Years of excessive rain and deficient rain during the monsoon season, 2009-18

2010-19: rainfall received

See graphic:

2010-19: rainfall received during the monsoon, as percentage of the long-period average.

2012, 2014-17: deficit monsoons

Amit Bhattacharya, After 4 bad years, IMD says north India to get good rains, June 1, 2018: The Times of India

The India Meteorological Department’s forecast of a normal monsoon in northwest India will bring cheer to the crucial agricultural region, where rainfall has been below-par for four years in a row. If the forecast holds, northwest India is in for its first no-deficit monsoon since 2013.

In its region-wise monsoon forecast released on Wednesday, IMD predicted 100% seasonal rainfall in northwest India, a region comprising J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. In meteorological terms, 100% corresponds to rains that are exactly normal.

Being farthest from the seas, northwest India is at the tail end of the monsoon system, which arrives here after traversing the rest of the sub-continent. That’s why the normal monsoon season rainfall here is 615mm, way lower than the country’s normal of 887mm for the June-September period.

In recent years, however, monsoon in the northwest has been mostly below normal. Since 2012, the region received an above-normal monsoon only in 2013, a year that brought disasters of a different kind — cloudbursts and flash-floods in parts of Uttarakhand.

It is said, when monsoon fails in India, it fails spectacularly in the northwest. The drought years of 2014 and 2015 saw gaping monsoon deficits of 21% and 17%, respectively, in the region. Even last year, when the country had a near-normal monsoon, northwest India ended up with a rain shortfall of 10%.

The failing rainfall in recent years has not seriously impacted agricultural output in the region. That’s because farmers still have access to water due to perennial rivers, a good irrigation network and groundwater. However, deficient rainfall takes a big toll on the region’s scarce groundwater resources, which have anyway been depleting at an alarming rate.

Large parts of northwest India fall in the zone that has among the highest rates of groundwater extraction in the world. A bad monsoon puts further stress on this resource while adding to the inputs costs of farmers.

Further, poor winter rainfall in the region this year, particularly in the western Himalayas, has led to reduced levels in north India’s perennial rivers and other water sources. Timely arrival of monsoon and good rains will thereafter will go a long way in alleviating water stress on all fronts.

2013

Monsoon going strong, hopes soar

Rains Set To Cross 100% Of Long-Period Average, Record Rice Output Likely

Neha Lalchandani TNN

The Times of India 2013/08/02

A bountiful monsoon normally benefit the kharif crop and augurs good rice production with the area under sowing touching 196 lakh hectares in 2013, a 16 lakh hectare increase over 2012.

2015

17% rain deficit in July 2015

The Times of India, Aug 02 2015

Amit Bhattacharya, Vishwa Mohan & Neha Madaan

Dry days: 17% rain deficit in July

After a wet June, when other systems had countered the adverse effects of El Nino, monsoon took a drier turn in July and the month ended with a countrywide rain deficit of 17%. However, kharif sowing remained robust, boost ed by good rain spells in sev eral parts of the country . With the dip in rains monsoon's performance in the first half of the season -June 1 to July 31 -was 5% below the long term average June had a monsoon surplus of 16%.

Heavy rains in Gujarat Rajasthan, West Bengal Jharkhand and parts of cen tral India masked the fact that July this year was the driest since 2002 in terms of average rainfall across the country . The month started on a weak note and rains re mained below par till July 19, except for a brief four day period from the 9th.

But there were several redeeming features. “The rainfall, although weak, has been fairly well distributed across most parts of the country ,“ said D Sivananda Pai, head of India Meteoro logical Department's long range forecasting section.

However, some distress zones of low rainfall have started emerging. Rains were consistently weak through July in south India as well as subdivisions such as Marath wada and Madhya Maharash tra. From July 1 till 29, the southern peninsula recorded the highest rainfall deficien cy in the country , at 46%.

“We had forecast an 8% rainfall deficit for July , but it has turned out to be more. A typical feature this year has been that most rain-causing disturbances have been com ing from the east. Indian Ocean's monsoon circulation has been weak, which means that the monsoon pulses are not progressing from the south, which has caused a significant rainfall deficiency in the southern parts,“ a Met department official said.

However, rains in the north, most parts of central India and many regions of the east were close to normal.This is reflected in the kharif crop sowing figures. The overall sown area has, so far, been far ahead of the corresponding figures last year, which was a bad monsoon year.

The area under kharif as on Friday (July 31) was still less than what was reported at this time in 2013, when rains were plentiful in the monsoon months. As compared to 819.99 lakh hectares as on August 2, 2013, the kharif sown area this year was 764.28 lakh hectares as on July 31.

The monsoon is predicted to be active through the first week of August, raising hopes that the net sown area would grow in the coming days.

Several agencies, howev er, have predicted a relatively dry period in the country after the first week of August when the monsoon could go into a break, increasing the overall rain deficit.

In its monsoon update in June, IMD had forecast a 10% rain deficit in August. The department will issue another update for the second half of the season in a day or two. It had in June predicted a drought year, with overall seasonal rains at 12% below normal. Meanwhile, private forecaster Skymet downgraded its prediction for the season from 102% to 98%, still staying within the normal range.

PM explores ways on sugar exports

M Modi called for renewed P efforts to raise ethanol blending of fuel and exploring all possibilities for sugar exports as he brainstormed with key ministers and officials to resolve the problems faced by the sector.He reviewed the progress with regard to the Rs 6000 crore incentive package approved by the Centre in June and emphasized that the farmers' interest be kept foremost at all times.

2016

June 2016: 11% Monsoon deficit

The Times of India, July 01, 2016 Amit Bhattacharya

11% monsoon deficit in June

Monsoon remained slightly below expectations in the first month of the rainy season as June ended with a countrywide deficit of 11%, mainly on account of a delayed onset. Despite the deficit, however, rains have been in the normal to excess range in around two-thirds of India's 36 meteorological subdivisions. “The deficit in June was mainly due to the eight-day delay in monsoon's onset. It progressed well after that but did not perform as expected in central India.But the shortfall should be made up in July ,“ said D Sivananda Pai, lead monsoon forecaster at the India Meteorological Department.

The Met department expects rains to pick up in July , the most crucial month of the season for kharif sowing.Monsoon's performance in July is also important for water recharge as it accounts for almost a third of the total seasonal rainfall. By contrast, June normally gets only around 18% of the total monsoon rains.

“The monsoon hit the country only on June 8. So, we have got just about three weeks of monsoon rains so far. By that measure, an 11% shortfall is well within range,“ said B P Yadav, director, IMD. Among the meteorological regions of the country , south India received the best rain bounty , with 22% excess rains in June.Although the monsoon is yet to arrive in many parts of northwest India, the region had just a2.4% rain shortfall because of fairly good pre-monsoon showers in states such as Punjab.

The highest shortfall was in east and northeast India, where June ended with a 27.3% deficit. The performance wasn't totally unexpected because the region is predicted to receive less rains this year.

The region where monsoon has been more or less disappointing is central India, which had an 18.2% deficit in June. Except for Konkan and Goa, Marathwada and west Madhya Pradesh, rainfall has been less than average in all subdivisions of the region.

While Odisha and east MP are expected to get rains in the next days, other subdivisions in the region where the deficit is high -Gujarat and Madhya Maharashtra -may have to wait a few more days for good rainfall, Met officials said.These areas too would get good monsoon showers in July , they added. “In the next few days, monsoon activity is likely to be concentrated in northwest India and adjoining parts of central India. We expect monsoon to hit Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and more parts of UP and Rajasthan in the next two-three days,“ said Yadav.

Deficit hampers kharif sowing

The Times of India, Jul 02 2016

Vishwa Mohan

Deficit rainfall hampers kharif sowing in June 2016

Deficit monsoon rains in June has affected the overall kharif sowing operation in the month, keeping the sown area low as compared to the corresponding period last year but the area under paddy has shown improvement for the first time this season as compared to 2015-16. Kharif sown area data, released by the agriculture ministry on Friday , put the total area at 215.87 lakh hectare as on July 1 as compared to 279.27 lakh hectare at this time last year. However, the paddy recorded marginal increase by covering 47.77 lakh hectare so far this year as compared to 47.62 lakh hectare in 2015-16.

Sowing operations, which remained sluggish during the first three weeks after the onset of monsoon, picked up pace in the past one week due to good rains in south India -covering over 90 lakh hectare under various crops in the past seven days.

“Though the area under kharif crops, including pulses, oilseeds and cotton, is still less than the area during the corresponding period last year due to 11% of deficit rainfall in June, the sowing operation will further pick up in July and hopefully cross the last year's sown area by the end of this month“, said an official.

Areas under pulses and oilseeds will, however, continue to be a major concern.Sown area under oilseeds stands at merely 28.71 lakh hectare as on Friday as compared to 54.24 lakh hectare at this time last year. Similarly, cotton too recorded poor sowing as its sown area stands at 30.59 lakh hectare as compared to 60.16 lakh hectare in the 2015-16.

The availability of water in the country's 91 major reservoirs has marginally increased from 23.20 billion cubic meter (BCM) on June 23 to 23.94 BCM as on June 30 despite constant withdrawal of water from them.

According to the Central Water Commission, Rajasthan, Tripura and Andhra Pradesh have better storage in 2016 than the corresponding period in 2015.

2017

Despite floods, 5% rain deficit

Amit Bhattacharya, Despite floods, India faces 5% rain deficit, August 19, 2017: The Times of India

Large Parts Receive Poor Rain In August

The flood fury in Assam, Bihar, Bengal and Uttar Pradesh has taken attention away from poor monsoon rains in large parts of the country in August. The month has so far seen a 24% rain deficit (till August 18), with central India in particular reeling under a prolonged break in the monsoon.

The lull in rains has opened up a huge 58% shortfall in central India, and 37% in the northwest, for the month of August, pulling down monsoon's performance since June 1 to belownormal zone. The overall deficit now stands at 5% of the long period average.

However, the good news is that the monsoon is set to revive, the India Meteorological Department officials said. “By the weekend, the monsoon will become more active as a low pressure system is forming in the Bay of Bengal. We expect the situation in central India, west coast and the peninsula to improve,“ said D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD's longrange forecasting division.

The monsoon went into a break in the last week of July, when a weather disturbance, called Madden Julian Oscillation, appeared in the eastern Indian Ocean and depressed rains over the subcontinent.

“Since then, no low pressure systems formed in the Bay of Bengal. Neither did any storm system move west from the Pacific to aid the monsoon here. There were no impulses from the Indian Ocean either,“ Pai said.

“Now, there's some activity in the Indian Ocean which should progress northward towards India,“ he added.

While central and south are expected to get wet spells in the coming days, northwest India will have to wait to more conducive conditions.

“Northwest may not improve a lot unless there's an interaction of a western disturbance with the monsoon system,“ Pai said.

The three-week monsoon break has led to several meteorological subdivisions becoming rain “deficient“, showing a deficit of at least 20%. These include Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh, east and west Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada, Vidarbha, entire Karnataka and Kerala.In most other parts of India, comprising 26 of the 36 subdivision, rainfall has been normal or excess.

As is usually the case during a break in the monsoon, northeast India and the Himalayan regions continued to get rain in the first half of August, causing rivers to swell and flood the Gangetic plains. East and northeast India region has a 48% rain surplus so far in August, which IMD expects to decrease slightly in the second half. South India, which was the country's driest region in July with a 36% deficit, has had better rains in August. It still has an overall deficit of 16%.

Deficient rainfall brings down kharif sowing

Vishwa Mohan, Deficient rainfall brings down kharif sowing, August 19, 2017: The Times of India

Sending worry ing signals to the farm sector, deficient rains in central and peninsular India have taken toll on the ongoing Kharif (summer crop) sowing operation, bringing down the total acreage as on Friday, as compared to the sown area during the corresponding period last year.

Oilseeds and pulses are the worst hit. It will increase the country's import bill if sowing does not pick up in next two-three weeks. India, in any case, has to depend on imports to meet its domestic demand for these crops.

Latest crop-wise figures, released by the agriculture ministry on Friday , show that the total Kharif sown ar ea as on Friday stand at 976.34 lakh hectares as compared to 984.57 lakh hectares at this time last year -a clear indication that the current crop year (2017-18) may not be as good as 2016-17 in terms of production despite normal monsoon in many parts of the country .

Though the total sown area has dipped below last year's corresponding period level for the first time on Friday this monsoon season, sown area under oilseeds has consistently been declin ing for the past four weeks.

Similarly , pulses too has shown declining trend in past two weeks with sown area under pigeon pea (arhar), moong and soyabean declining by 18%, 6% and 9% respectively as compared to their acreage at this time last year. Sown area under oilseeds stand at 157.36 lakh hectares (LH) as compared to 175.10 LH at this time last year -the highest dip in terms of acreage so far this season.

Less rainfall means poor storage of water and lower acreage in the Kharif season and also during Rabi (winter crop) sowing operation, beginning October. Less moisture content in soil also affects Rabi crops. If low rainfall phase continues in these areas, its effect will be felt on overall production.

235 districts were deficit; after floods came drought

Amit Bhattacharya, 235 of The Country's 630 Districts Face Monsoon Deficit Of 20% Or More - After floods, Comes drought, Sep 14 2017: The Times of India

Around 235 districts across the country face the prospect of drought this year as the monsoon appears headed for a below-normal performance, with the season's deficit currently at 6.2% of normal.

These districts, accounting for 37% of the country's 630 districts for which rain data is available, have monsoon shortfall of at least 20%, with nine show acute deficits of 60% or more, data from the India Meteorological Department reveals.

A majority of the distress districts lie in the hinterland, in a swathe running through Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha. Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and MP are the hardest hit states, showing rain deficits of 31%, 28% and 25%, respectively .

The deficits have grown gradually since the end of July, when the monsoon started failing in central and north India. The first two months of the season, June and July , ended with a countrywide rain surplus of 2.5%. Monsoon's performance since August 1 has been a dismal 17% below normal (till September 12), with good rainfall being mainly restricted to south and northeast India.

“A number of factors worked against the monsoon since July-end. There have hardly been low-pressure circulations since then and conditions in the Indian and Pacific oceans have been unfavourable,“ said D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD's long range monsoon forecasts.

IMD had forecast normal monsoon this year at 96% of long period average, which it updated to 98% in June.

Poor distribution of rainfall has added to the distress.As many as 110 districts have had excess or `large excess' (over 60% of normal) rainfall. In addition, heavy rain spells in Gujarat, Rajasthan and catchment areas in the Himalayas (particularly in Nepal) caused the worst floods in the country in 10 years.

Ironically , states such as UP have seen both flood fury as well as the prospect of drought. The monsoon deficit in west UP stands at 37%, highest for any subdivision in the country . Of the state's 72 districts, rainfall has been deficient in 48. Of these, five districts -Agra, Hamirpur, Mahamayanagar, Amethi and Kushinagar -face acute shortfall of 60% or more.

This combination of poor rains and floods is likely to hit kharif output, although data till September 8 reveals that the sowing area this year is only marginally less than last year's, with the biggest drops seen in oilseeds, pulses and jute. Several state governments have reported ly started drought exercises.

Poor rains have affected water storage levels, important for winter crops. According to the Central Water Commission data, live storage at 91 important reservoirs in the country was at 58% of capacity on September 8, lowest in five years for which data was available. It was lower than the corresponding period during drought years of 2014 (74%) and 2015 (59%), and significantly below the 10-year average of 69%.

IMD believes the second half of September could bring better rains in central India. “While the situation in northwest is not likely to change too much, there are indications that central India may get some rain in the next couple of weeks. Monsoon isn't likely to start withdrawing in the next few days,“ Pai said.

Monsoon ends 5% below normal

Amit Bhattacharya, Monsoon to end below-par as rains begin to withdraw, September 28, 2017: The Times of India

The southwest monsoon has begun to withdraw from the country , some two weeks later than normal.With just three days to go for the official end of India's rainy season, it is now fairly certain that this year's monsoon will end in the below-normal zone.

The India Meteorological Department announced on Wednesday that the monsoon had retreated from the western parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, as well as the northwestern tip of Gujarat.

“We expect the monsoon to withdraw completely from northwest India and adjoining parts of central India in the next two-three days. Dry weather is forecast in the region and there's a substantial drop in moisture levels, making conditions favourable for the retreat,“ said M Mohapatra, head of services at IMD.

He said south India, eastern coast and the northeast will continue to get rain over the next few days. The monsoon's performance so far has been below normal, with the countrywide rain deficit currently at 5.5%. The figure is unlikely to change much in the next three days, when the monsoon season (June to September) ends. This means that the monsoon is most likely to finish in the below-normal range (90-96% of long period average).

That would be a rather disappointing end to the season that had begun with expectations of normal rains. In April, IMD had forecast monsoon to be 96% of normal. It had subsequently updated the prediction to 98% of normal in June. Both forecasts had 4% error margin.

One-third of districts under rain deficit

Amit Bhattacharya, Monsoon signs off with one-third of districts under rain deficit, Oct 1, 2017: The Times of India

Amit Bhattacharya, September 30, 2017: The Times of India

HIGHLIGHTS

The overall monsoon shortfall is also showing in water storage levels.

In 2016, too, the monsoon went into a longish break in August.

A normal monsoon in 2016 had led to record foodgrain production.

India received below-normal monsoon this year, with the season ending on a 5.2% deficit on Saturday. While 50% of the country's districts have had normal rains, more than a third — 215 districts — are left with deficient rainfall, which could impact the kharif crop to an extent.

A 'below-normal monsoon', according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is when countrywide rains in the season are 90-96% of the long period average (LPA). It is a category above 'deficient monsoon', when rains are below 90% of LPA (as in the drought years of 2014 and 2015).

The majority of the districts in rain distress this year are in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Vidarbha and surrounding areas, which were the hardest hit by an unexpected dip in rainfall in the second half of the season.

While the first half (June-July) posted a 2.5% rain surplus, August and September had a combined deficit of 12.5%. The Met department attributes the monsoon's failure in these months to a combination of factors that came into play together.

"A number of storms originated in the northwest Pacific in August, which reduced rain activity over the Indian subcontinent. Conditions in the Indian Ocean too did not boost rainfall during this period," said D Sivananda Pai, head of long range forecasting at IMD. In terms of India's four regions, the northwest had the maximum rain deficit of 10%, followed by central with 6%, and east and northeast with 4%. Rains were normal in south India.

The government's first advance estimate of this year's kharif crop reflects the monsoon's below-par performance, with the estimated production pegged 2.8% below last year's. A normal monsoon in 2016 had led to record foodgrain production.

The comparison with last year, when overall rains were better by just over two percentage points, is interesting. While 10 out of the 36 subdivisions in the country had deficient rains in 2016 — as compared to six this year — there were fewer districts with large rain shortfall. The number of districts with deficient or very deficient rain stood at 199 last year, while this year the number is 215.

In 2016, too, the monsoon went into a longish break in August. However, crucially, the break came later and lasted for a shorter time. This year, the break in the monsoon — when rainfall dips sharply in central India — began around July 26 and continued till the third week of August, a period crucial for kharif sowing.

"There were too many lulls in the monsoon during the second half. Also, the distribution of rainfall was rather poor, with some areas getting too much rain, which led to floods," said Pai. On the brighter side, south India got good rains during August and September, which wiped out the deficits of the previous months.

Some of these subdivisions, such as south interior Karnataka, had seen drought last year. The northeast, too, got good spells of rain in the second half. The overall monsoon shortfall is also showing in water storage levels. According to the Central Water Commission, 91 major reservoirs in the country were at 66% of capacity on September 28. This is just about 89% of the levels in the corresponding period last year, and 87% of the 10-year average.

Monsoon to end below-par as rains begin to withdraw

The southwest monsoon has begun to withdraw from the country , some two weeks later than normal.With just three days to go for the official end of India's rainy season, it is now fairly certain that this year's monsoon will end in the below-normal zone.

The India Meteorological Department announced on Wednesday that the monsoon had retreated from the western parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, as well as the northwestern tip of Gujarat.

“We expect the monsoon to withdraw completely from northwest India and adjoining parts of central India in the next two-three days. Dry weather is forecast in the region and there's a substantial drop in moisture levels, making conditions favourable for the retreat,“ said M Mohapatra, head of services at IMD.

He said south India, eastern coast and the northeast will continue to get rain over the next few days. The monsoon's performance so far has been below normal, with the countrywide rain deficit currently at 5.5%. The figure is unlikely to change much in the next three days, when the monsoon season (June to September) ends. This means that the monsoon is most likely to finish in the below-normal range (90-96% of long period average).

That would be a rather disappointing end to the season that had begun with expectations of normal rains. In April, IMD had forecast monsoon to be 96% of normal. It had subsequently updated the prediction to 98% of normal in June. Both forecasts had 4% error margin.

2018

13 Jun- 11 Sept

See graphic:

2018- The progress of the Monsoon in India, 13 June- 11 September, 2018

2018: a district-wise map

See graphic:

Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon
A district-wise map;
2018 vis-à-vis 2015, 16, 17
There was a 9.4% deficit

2018: Sub division-wise actuals

See graphic:

Rainfall in the 36 ‘sub divisions’ of India during the 2018 Monsoon, till 29 September 2018

June to Sept: Day-wise statistics

See graphics:

Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon- Day-wise rainfall, June to July 31

Rainfall in India during the 2018 Monsoon- Day-wise rainfall, July 25 to September 29

2018: variations in IMD’s Sept figures

October 1, 2018: The Times of India

A discrepancy in the rainfall data for September 30 has created ambiguity over the final figure of 804mm monsoon rainfall across the country. The IMD website shows 1.1mm mean countrywide rain on Sunday but credits 3.6mm to the consolidated monsoon figure.

As on September 29, seasonal rainfall in the country was 800.4mm, as per IMD data released on the department’s website on Saturday. An addition of 1.1mm rain on Sunday would make the final monsoon figure 801.5mm. This translates to a deficit of 9.7% from the LPA of 887.5mm, which is usually rounded off to 10%.

IMD’s final figure for this year’s monsoon shows rainfall of 804mm across the country and a shortfall of 9.4%. This implies that Sunday’s rainfall was 3.6mm and not 1.1mm, as shown in the daily rainfall data. IMD officials weren’t available for comment.

2018: 9% deficit/ below-normal

Vishwa Mohan and Amit Bhattacharya, With over 9% deficit, monsoon may end in below-normal zone, September 30, 2018: The Times of India

Withdrawal Begins; Oct-Dec Rains In South To Be Normal: IMD

The southwest monsoon which began to withdraw from the country on 29 September, starting from west Rajasthan, is likely to end in the ‘below-normal’ zone this year with a deficit of 9.4% so far.

While the monsoon season rainfall was below expectations, sowing of kharif crops was not majorly affected because of fairly good rain distribution. The acreage under kharif this year is 1.9% less than last year’s and around 0.7% lower than normal.

He told TOI that IMD has in association with IIT Gandhinagar come out with a map, showing soil moisture content across the country as a result of this year’s rains. “The map shows that the soil moisture content in most parts of the country is extremely good. It’s a good sign for rabi (winter sown) crops and the overall farm sector,” said Ramesh.

IMD declared the beginning of monsoon’s withdrawal, nearly a month later than the normal date of September 1. Monsoon wind patterns have receded from some west Rajasthan areas.

2018, monsoon months: 21% of India dry, worse than in last two monsoons

Neha Madaan, 21% of India dry, worse than in last two monsoons: IMD data, October 6, 2018: The Times of India

The monsoon in 2018 has left 21.38% area of the country moderately to extremely dry, India Meteorological Department (IMD) data at the end of the fourmonth season shows.

The department’s Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), an index to monitor drought, showed that the dry conditions this monsoon have been worse than in 2016 and 2017.

This year, 134 districts , the maximum, reported moderately to extremely dry conditions.

This index, negative for drought and positive for wet conditions, showed that 229 districts reported “mildly dry” conditions, a staggering 43.51% this monsoon.

Around 17.78% area of the country reported moderately to extremely dry conditions last year, while 12.28% area reported such conditions in 2016, Pulak Guhathakurta, head of Climate Data Management and Services at IMD, Pune, told TOI.

“This monsoon, the percentage area showing dry conditions has gone up to over 21%, with more than 5.45% area witnessing severely dry conditions and 2.08% reporting extremely dry conditions during the season,” Guhathakurta said.

The latest SPI report released by IMD said the monsoon showed extremely, severely and moderately dry conditions over most districts of Lakshadweep, many districts of Arunachal Pradesh, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar, Rayalseema and north interior Karnataka.

One or two districts of Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha also experienced similar dry conditions this season. Moderately to severely dry districts in Maharashtra included Satara, Solapur, Aurangabad, Jalna and Buldhana. September seemed worse for Maharashtra as extremely to moderately dry conditions prevailed over most districts of Konkan, Maharashtra, Marathwada and other regions of the country.

Maharashtra reported a -1.42 on the index in September this year which is “severely dry”.

Among the other states, the worst performer this monsoon was Lakshadweep with extremely dry conditions, followed by states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, Meghalaya, Tripura and Jharkhand where moderately dry conditions prevailed.

Guhathakurta said the most affected regions this season were from the northeast, some districts in Marathwada, Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Gujarat, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, south interior Karnataka and Kerala.

Around 17.8% of the country’s area reported moderate to extremely dry conditions last year, while 12.3% of area reported such conditions in 2016

2019

After slow start, monsoon covers 10 states in 4 days

Amit Bhattacharya, June 24, 2019: The Times of India

After having made the slowest progress in at least 12 years, the monsoon has broken into a sprint, nearly covering 10 states and entering two more within a span of four days since June 19 while racing into east Uttar Pradesh in the north.

With a low-pressure system giving it wind, the monsoon strode into Varanasi, covering nearly 700km in four days from its position over north Bay of Bengal last Wednesday. The push from the Bay of Bengal arm has led to an unusual situation of the monsoon having reached Varanasi while being still to arrive over Mumbai, which it normally hits by June 10.

“Monsoon is likely to reach Mumbai in a day or two and cover most parts of Maharashtra by June 25, after which the system is likely to go into a brief lull again,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster.

In the north, monsoon may push a little further into UP before the low pressure system driving it runs out of steam, Pai added.

The rapid strides in the last four days, however, haven’t made a significant dent in the overall rain deficit this month. Monsoon rainfall remains 38% lower than normal this month (June 1 to 23). The deficit has reduced from 44% on June 19, but still remains significantly high due to monsoon’s late onset and slow initial progress.

Marathwada, Vidarbha both receive good rains

Nonetheless, monsoon’s speedy progress this week should come as good news for regions battling drought conditions in central India and parts of the south. Rains over Bihar will also moderate temperatures in the state, leading to a likely drop acute encephalitis cases.

Marathwada and Vidarbha, both battling acute water shortages this summer, were among the regions that received good rain on Sunday. Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and east UP were the other sub-divisions were monsoon was active. Karnataka, Telangana, west MP and J&K also received some rain.

While monsoon is likely to cover Maharashtra and enter MP and south Gujarat over the next couple of days, its further progress, particularly into most of northwest India, may depend on another low-pressure system coming in from Bay of Bengal. “As of now, there is no sign of a low forming over Bay of Bengal. Many parts of north India may get thundershowers, outside the monsoon system, in the next few days. It’s difficult to say at present when monsoon will hit Delhi and neighbouring states,” Pai said.

With many regions still awaiting a delayed monsoon, central India continues to run a high rain deficit of 43.5% while east and northeast reels under a deficit of 44% in the June 1-19 period. South too has a high shortfall of nearly 30% while north India, which is the last region to come under monsoon system, has a relatively lower deficit of 20%. It is likely that June will end up with a large rain deficit, said IMD officials. “The presence of a weak El Nino seems to have affected monsoon, delaying its onset over the Indian mainland and its slow progress thereafter,” an official said.

Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala: deficit turns into deluge

Amit Bhattacharya, August 16, 2019: The Times of India

When it rained, it poured. Six days of monsoon mayhem turned three sub-divisions of the country from rain deficit regions into flooded fields, in a pattern that experts warn could be getting more frequent due to climate change.

Till August 7, Kerala was among the monsoon deficient sub-divisions of the country with a seasonal deficit of 27%. Eleven of its 14 districts had monsoon shortfall of over 20%, with six having deficits above 30%.

By August 13, all the districts, barring Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram, were hit by floods.

In these six days, the state received 453.4mm of rain, five times the normal for this period (92.6mm) and over 30% monsoon deficiency till August 7 to a 24% surplus on August 13. South Interior Karnataka, another floodhit region, received 163.6mm of rain from August 7 to 13, 4.5 times the normal, turning an 8% deficit to a 21% rainfall surplus.

40% of the rainfall in Kerala in the previous 68 days of the monsoon season. Floods in the state, bringing back memories of last year’s unprecedented deluge, have since claimed 104 lives so far.

The change was even more dramatic in the Saurashtra and Kutch sub-division of Gujarat, which went from

Monsoon now akin to a T20 match: Expert

The patterns seem to fit in with what experts have been warning about the monsoon under climate change — the frequency of heavy rain events is increasing while the number of days of light to moderate showers is decreasing.

“The Indian monsoon has become like a T20 match, the situation can change dramatically within a few balls (days),” said M Rajeevan, veteran meteorologist and secretary of the earth sciences ministry. He said, coupled with extreme rain events, length of dry spells is also increasing. This combination increases the threat of floods, experts said. Saurashtra & Kutch, which is among the drier subdivisions in the country, had a cumulative rainfall of 233mm in the 68 days till August 7. In the next six days, it received 222.8mm rainfall, resulting in flood havoc in seven of the subdivision’s 12 districts.

No single weather event can be directly linked to climate change, M Mohapatra, director general (meteorology) at IMD said. “Last year, Mt Abu got around 70cm of rain in a day. This is part of climate variability. But the increase in the number of very rainy days is due to climate change.”

The wettest July-Aug in 25 years

For day-wise data, see the graphic under ‘1988-2019: the wettest July-Aug’

August 31, 2019: The Times of India

July and August this year, the main monsoon months, were the wettest India has seen in 25 years. Countrywide rainfall in the two months has been 10% above normal, the highest since 1994, met records reveal.

The current month, with 16% above-normal rainfall across the country in 30 days so far, is set to be the wettest August in 23 years. July had ended with a 5% monsoon surplus.

This is also the first time since 2010 that both July and August have received surplus all-India rainfall — just the second time in the past 25 years — IMD data reveals.

The surplus rainfall in July-August was a dramatic change from June, which witnessed a 33% rainfall deficit, the worst for the month in five years. “Both large scale and regional factors became favourable for the monsoon since July. First, El Nino, which normally disrupts the Indian monsoon, weakened considerably in July (and later dissipated). Meanwhile, conditions in the Indian Ocean became good for monsoon with the oceanic dipole turning positive,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology of IMD.

At the regional level, low pressure systems started forming over the Bay of Bengal and moving inland. “Four such systems formed in August alone. But it wasn’t the number alone. The systems remained active over the land for a large number of days, leading to vigorous monsoon conditions, particularly over central and peninsular India,” Mohapatra said.

However, at many places, the rainfall proved to be too much, too soon, and not much beneficial for kharif crops. While July got off to a wet start, the monsoon went into a 12-day hiatus from July 13, which delayed sowing in several states.

By July 25, the monsoon was nearly 20% below normal across the country, leading to concerns over another failed monsoon year. That’s when a 26-day period of intense rainfall began which not just wiped out the deficit but pulled the seasonal rainfall (since June 1) to a 2% surplus.

Countrywide daily rainfall during this period remained higher than normal on all but three days. As on August 30, the total sown area under kharif crops was nearly 2% less than the same period last year, according to agriculture ministry figures. While cotton has benefitted, with an increase of 6% in sown area as compared with last year, paddy has taken a hit. The sown area of the staple crop shows a 4.7% decline from last year. That’s also because of poor rains so far in major ricegrowing states such as Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand.

2020

June- Aug

Amit Bhattacharya, August set for highest rain surplus in 44 years, August 29, 2020: The Times of India

NEW DELHI: While the monsoon in July was 10% below normal in the country, August is set to be one of the wettest in decades. Rainfall during the month has been 25% surplus so far (till August 28), the highest deviation from normal in 44 years, with monsoon rains pounding central and south India in recent weeks.

India last witnessed a higher monsoon surplus in the month of August in 1976, when 28.4% higher than normal rainfall was recorded, according to India Meteorological Department data. Met officials said active monsoon conditions are expected in the remaining three days of the month, which means the rain surplus of 25% may not change much.

Across the country, an average of 296.2mm of rain has been recorded so far this month, against a normal of 237.1mm. In absolute terms, rainfall for the whole month could be the highest for August since 1988, when 329.6mm was recorded.

Monsoon was most active over central India, which received relentless rains during the month, adding up to a huge surplus of 57% in August. South India too has had over 42% excess rains, on top of the 16% surplus it received in July.

Between the two months, July and August, what made the difference in monsoon conditions were the number of low-pressure systems forming in the Bay of Bengal. While there were none in July, August has had five so far against a normal of three-four in each of the two months.

“In July, one low-pressure system had formed in the first week but quickly dissipated. So it wouldn’t be counted as a proper system. In August, we had a number of low-pressure circulations that had long life periods, bringing copious rain, particularly over central India. The region had a 22% rain deficit in July, while in August it had a 57% surplus,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster.

The rain bounty in August has led to an overall monsoon surplus of 9% for the season (June 1-August 28) so far. If September turns out to be even slightly wetter than normal, the 2020 monsoon season could end with excess rainfall (over 10% above normal).

However, IMD officials said September could see slightly below normal rainfall although La Nina conditions are developing in the Pacific Ocean which favour good monsoon rainfall over India.

“We expect northwest India to get rain over the next week. After that, around September 5, monsoon activity is likely to shift to northeast India, which hasn’t had good rainfall in August. The risk of floods could increase in that region following this rain spell,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, head of IMD.

While northwest India received normal rainfall in August, several parts of the region, particularly the subdivision of west Uttar Pradesh, have had deficient rains. For the season as a whole, northwest India has a rain deficit of 11%.

Delhi: 20% rain deficit

Priyangi Agarwal, October 1, 2020: The Times of India

Delhi recorded 467.7mm of rainfall this season against the normal level of 585.8mm of rainfall. “There has been an overall deficit of 118.1mm rainfall this monsoon season,” said Kuldeep Srivastava, a scientist at IMD.

Despite prolonged monsoon, the month witnessed only three rainy days on September 5, 6 and 8. Only “trace” rainfall was recorded on September 4, while 0.8mm of rainfall was recorded on September 5. Safdarjung — Delhi’s base station — recorded no rainfall since September 9 even after the extended monsoon. However, the city saw two “heavy” and a “very heavy” rainy day in August.

Though the Safdarjung observatory observed excess rainfall in both June and July, it recorded 11 per cent deficit this season after less rain in August and September. The observatory recorded 81.8mm rainfall in June, which was 25% excess than normal 60.5mm rainfall. With 236.9mm rainfall in July, Safdarjung observed 12 per cent excess rainfall. However, in August, Safdarjung received 237mm rainfall against 247.7mm normal rainfall, while it recorded only 20.8mm rainfall in September.

This monsoon season, no district in Delhi recorded “excess” rainfall. However, three districts, including New Delhi with 12 per cent deficit, North Delhi with 5 per cent excess rain and South West Delhi with 3 per cent deficit, made it to “normal” category of rainfall. The IMD classifies a rain deficit when it is above -19 per cent.

East Delhi, North East Delhi, North West Delhi and South Delhi districts were in “deficit” category. Central Delhi, which has only received 250.2mm of rainfall against 674.9mm normal rainfall this season, fared the worst with a “large deficit” rainfall of 63 per cent.

Marathwada: record rainfall

Prasad Joshi, October 25, 2020: The Times of India

All the 11 major dams in Marathwada, including the Manjra dam that is prone to dry storage and supplies water to Latur, Sina Kolegaon and Lower Dudhna in Osmanabad district, are almost filled to the designed storage capacity, thanks to record rainfall.

Jaisingh Hire, assistant engineer with Command Area Development Authority (CADA), Aurangabad, on Saturday said the cumulative storage in these major reservoirs was the highest in the last decade and a half.

Marathwada has faced droughts twice in the last six years and the threat of water scarcity looms over the region every year, especially in Latur, Osmanabad and Beed districts due to relatively poorer storages in major dams that supply water to them.

The overflowing dams have now addressed issues of the water-scarcity prone areas of the region at least till the end of December next year.

Notably, Latur had grabbed national and international attention when it was forced to supply water through special trains during the summer of 2016 owing to scanty rainfall. “The storage in the Sina Kolegaon dam was very poor in the last 15 years due to low rainfall in catchment areas. Similar was the case with Manjra for around 10 years. Overall, the collective storage in all the dams in the region is exceptional this year due to the good run of monsoon,” said Hire.

Four of the major irrigation projects — Sina Kolegaon (-80%), Majalgaon (-18%) and Manjra (-17%) in Beed district and Lower Dudhna (-15%) in Parbhani district — were in dead storage during the corresponding period last year.

Hire said that the available water stock is expected to produce a bumper season of rabi crops ahead even if kharif crops have taken a hit in many areas due to excessive rainfall.

“The meetings of canal advisory committees for every major irrigation project, to be convened shortly, will decide on allocation of water for drinking, irrigation and industrial among other needs. There is sufficient water to cater to all possible demands,” he said.

The total 11 major dams were showing 180 TMC live storage (99%), which is more than twice the average stock that has been held by them in the last five years.

The 75 medium dams in the region were showing 31 TMC live storage (92%), whereas 752 minor dams were holding 47 TMC water (80%). A total of 38 barrages on different major rivers from Marathwada were showing 11 TMC water in total (94%).

See also

Agriculture: India

Cyclonic winds: India

India Meteorological Department

Monsoons: India

Mumbai: local rains

Rainfall: India and Burma, 1907-12

Rainfall: India

Storms (dust-, hail-, rain-, thunder-): India

Weather forecasts: India

Winter rains: India

January weather in India <> February weather in India <> March weather in India <> April weather in India <> May weather in India <> June weather in India <> Summers: India<> July weather in India <> August weather in India <> September weather in India <> Monsoons: India<> October weather in India <> November weather in India <> December weather in India <> Winter rains: India <> Winters: India