Revision as of 07:34, 24 June 2021

BJP- Shiv Sena alliances

Ambarish Mishra, Sena won’t ally with BJP in 2019 polls, January 24, 2018: The Times of India

Seats, contested and won- Lok Sabha elections (1991-2014) and Assembly elections (1990-2014)
From: Ambarish Mishra, Sena won’t ally with BJP in 2019 polls, January 24, 2018: The Times of India

See graphic:

Seats, contested and won- Lok Sabha elections (1991-2014) and Assembly elections (1990-2014)

Shiv Sena, BJP’s oldest — and for 25 years its sturdiest — ally, announced it would go solo for Lok Sabha and Maharashtra polls in 2019. While Sena’s newly constituted national executive passed a resolution to this effect, Sena president

“This regime thrives only on hollow ad campaigns. It needs to be brought down,” Uddhav said at a party conclave that saw his son, Aaditya, being elevated to the status of a ‘neta’ in Sena.

Sena to poach Hindutva radicals

Though Sena is not withdrawing from the Modi government or the BJP-led state government as of now, its stand, and especially Uddhav’s call to defeat the Modi regime, is certain to worsen Sena-BJP ties, rocky since mid-2014, and raise doubts over Sena’s role in the BJP-led NDA at the Centre.

Though the allies fought the 2014 LS polls unitedly, Matoshree snapped ties with BJP for the October 2014 state elections, only to later join the Devendra Fadnavis-led government as BJP’s junior partner. The tie-up came apart again for the 2017 Mumbai civic polls where BJP fell just 2 seats short of the Sena tally.

Uddhav also spelt out Sena’s expansion plan with militant Hindutva as its plank. Addressing party functionaries at the Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel stadium in Worli, he said, “We will expand across the country. Hereafter we will contest every election in every state with Hindutva as our mantra,” he said.

Uddhav’s gameplan is to poach on the radical quotient in the BJP- R-S-S ahead of the 2019 polls by flaunting aggressive Hindutva and projecting BJP as a feeble party with little or no legitimate claim to Hindutva, said Sena watchers. They pointed out that a section in the Sangh Parivar is unhappy with the Modi regime for being “soft” on issues such as Kashmir, Ram Janmabhoomi, Article 370 and even triple talaq.

The Sena also passed a resolution to win “at least 25 LS seats (out of 48 in the state) and 150 assembly seats (out of 288)” in 2019.

Raising the Kashmir issue, Uddhav said the nation needed an aggressive leader like Sardar Patel. In a dig at PM Modi who routinely heaps praise on India’s first home minister, he said, “Had the Sardar been alive today, he would have resolved the Kashmir issue and also the Pakistan issue once and for all.”

Uddhav also criticised Modi for taking Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to Ahmedabad for a kite-flying session recently. “Why Ahmedabad? The PM should have taken his Israeli counterpart to Srinagar to hoist the national flag there,” he said.

Accusing the Modi government of issuing “hollow threats” to Pakistan, Uddhav said those in power have no empathy for Indian soldiers killed along the border and in terror attacks. “It’s high time the Pakistan problem is put to an end forever. But our leaders have become ‘mastawaal’ (power-drunk and reckless),” he said.

He also slammed Union minister Nitin Gadkari for being critical of the Navy and chided state BJP minister Chandrakant Patil for praising the Kannada language in Belgaum, an area at the centre of the Maharashtra-Karnataka border row. “Patil should have spared a thought for Marathis who have been living along the border,” said Uddhav, indicating that along with Hindutva, the Sena would also sharpen its Marathi plank.

Highest, lowest margins of victory

Assembly elections

2014

The highest and lowest margins of victory in the assembly elections, 2014
From: Oct 1, 2019: The Times of India

See graphic:

The highest and lowest margins of victory in the assembly elections, 2014

Women

1962-2014: Women MLAs

Bhavika Jain1, Sep 28, 2019: The Times of India

1962-2014: Women MLAs in the Maharashtra assembly.
From: Bhavika Jain1, Sep 28, 2019: The Times of India

Women comprise nearly 50% of the total voter base in Maharashtra and yet represent just 7% of the current Vidhan Sabha strength.

Of the 288 seats of the Maharashtra assembly, 20 are occupied by women today. This abysmal figure, though, is still a record for the highest number of women MLAs in the state.

An analysis of women’s representation in the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha shows that while female voters are increasing steadily, parties are still shying away from fielding women as candidates.

In the 2014 elections, of the total 4,119 candidates in the fray, 277 were women, 20 of whom won. This is still an improvement over 2009, when there were just 11 women in Vidhan Bhavan; 211 women had contested then.

“We have been agitating within the party, even though multiple forums have been seeking more tickets for women. They talk about winnability but if parties don’t allow women to contest, how can they prove that they can win elections? It’s still a male-dominated space,” said BJP spokesperson Shaina NC. She said handing out tickets to daughters, wives or daughters-in-law of senior male politicians does not do justice to women workers.

A senior woman politician said though the number of women voters is rising, there is a question over how many choose a candidate on their own and are not influenced by the political views of their husbands and sons. “The day a woman’s vote is not influenced by her male relatives and she votes for a female candidate putting her trust in her to raise her issues, that’s when parties will be forced to give equal representation to women,” said the politician who has served for 25 years.

In 1972, there was not a single woman MLA in Maharashtra. Of the 56 women who contested not one won, even though there were 1.3 crore women voters, of whom 71.3 lakh voted. In 1967, nine of the 19 women candidates won. Likewise, in 1962, 13 of 36 women candidates won. Over the past four assembly elections from 1995 to 2009, only 11 to 12 women were elected in each term. The highest number till 2014 was 19 in 1980 or 6.6% of the total strength.

“The is a need for parties to give more opportunities to women working with them,” said Yashomati Thakur, a Congress secretary and MLA from Teosa. She said there is only one woman with a cabinet rank in the state government—Pankaja Munde. “This says a lot,” she said.

2018

Sena backs Cong for by- poll

Prafulla Marpakwar, Sena backs Congman for Maha bypoll, May 11, 2018: The Times of India

Shiv Sena has supported the candidature of a Congress nominee, Vishwajeet Kadam, for the May 28 Pulus-Kadegaon assembly bypoll. The BJP has fielded Sangram Deshmukh.

Sena said it was a gesture by party chief Uddhav Thackeray since Kadam is the son of late senior Congressman Patangrao Kadam. “It’s a tradition of the Sena. Whenever the son or daughter of a deceased legislator contests a bypoll, Sena lends support,” said a party spokesman.

Maharashtra legislative council biennial elections

BJP & Sena win 2 seats each, NCP 1 in MLC polls, May 25, 2018: The Times of India

The results of the Maharashtra legislative council biennial elections, 2018
From: BJP & Sena win 2 seats each, NCP 1 in MLC polls, May 25, 2018: The Times of India

The BJP and Sena bagged 2 seats each and the NCP picked up 1 seat in the Maharashtra legislative council in the biennial elections. Counting of votes has been deferred in 1 constituency.

The Raigad-RatnagiriSindhudurg seat was won by NCP candidate Aniket Tatkare, son of former minister and NCP heavyweight Sunil Tatkare, by defeating Sena’s Rajiv Sable. Aniket secured 620 votes against Sable’s 306. In the Amravati seat, minister of state (industries and environment) Pravin Pote secured 458 of the 488 votes polled. Congress nominee Anil Madhogadhiya managed to get 17 votes. “I thank all the voters for reposing their faith in me.

It is avote to the leadership of BJP in the state and at the Centre,” Pote said. In Wardha-Chandrapur -Gadchiroli, the tussle was close between BJP’s Ambatkar, who bagged 528 votes, and the Congress nominee Indrakumar Saraf, who got 491 votes. In the the Parbhani-Hingoli local self-governing body constituency election, the Shiv Sena sprang a surprise despite the numbers favouring the Congress-NCP combine.

Viplav Bajoriya of Shiv Sena defeated Suresh Deshmukh of Congress by a margin of 35 votes in the local selfgoverning body constituency election for Parbhani-Hingoli districts with the help of crossvoting. Viplav, who is the son of Sena’s sitting MLC Gopikisan Bajoriya from Akola-Buldhana-Washim local bodies’ constituency, secured 256 votes as against 221 received by Deshmukh. BJP’s plans to take on Shiv Sena in the Nashik local selfgoverning bodies constituency polls failed miserably.

Despite being its ally, BJP had decided to vote against the Sena and back the NCP candidate. The move was seen as a retaliatory step since Sena had fielded a candidate for the Palghar Lok Sabha bypolls.

Shiv Sena candidate Narendra Darade defeated NCP nominee Shiva-ji Sahane by a margin of 167 votes. Meanwhile, the Election Commission has deferred counting in the Osmanabad-Latur-Beed seat over legal wrangles.

The deadlock over counting of votes for the election continued on Thursday, when the Aurangabad bench of the Bombay high court scheduled the hearing of review petition in the matter before the regular bench on June 6

2019

Assembly elections: How a ‘no-contest’ became a strong contest

Vaibhav Purandare & Ambarish Mishra, Oct 26, 2019: The Times of India

At the height of the assembly poll campaign, CM Devendra Fadnavis invoked the Fuhrer-like mustachioed jailer from the 1975 Bollywood classic ‘Sholay’ with his “angrezon ke zamaney ke” pretensions. NCP chief “Sharad Pawar is like this jailer, saying “ Aadhe idhar jaao, aadhe udhar jaao, bache woh mere peechhe aao(Half the cops can move here, the other half there and the rest, stand behind me),” the CM said, recalling actor Asrani’s famous line.

Portraying the poll as not just an unequal contest but a non-contest didn’t cut much ice with Maharashtra’s voters, who placed the BJP-Sena alliance across the winning line for sure but not before making it clear that this was no one-horse race.

The hype around the “220-plus” target set by the BJP-Sena combine has understandably triggered odd reactions after the results: the saffron winners are shaken and in a sulk; the “defeated” NCP and Congress are in a celebratory mood.

This part-setback for the ‘yuti’ and bounceback for NCP-Congress brings in its wake the prospect of a possible erosion of authority and clout for CM Devendra Fadnavis and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, both of whom had publicly stated that the saffron camp had no opponents worth the name.

In the run-up to the polls, many of Pawar’s closest aides deserted him more swiftly than did the gaonwale ofSholay when Gabbar’s men came calling on their scary horses, but the strategy of engineering defections of netas it had once described as tainted and unruly fief-holders significantly diluted BJP’s anti-corruption narrative. At the same time it sparked largescale rebellion, with Fadnavis unable to rein in the rebels despite issuing a stern warning at a presser that those who didn’t withdraw from the fray “would be shown their place”.

Moreover, it nullified gains that may have accrued from the Maratha quota the Fadnavis government granted the state’s nearly 30% Maratha population. If the Marathas of western Maharashtra and Marathwada welcomed the fulfilment of their demand, they looked askance at the targeting of Pawar right through the campaign.

Farm distress, the overall state of the rural economy and the aftermath of the floods made BJP all the more vulnerable to anti-incumbency in western Maharashtra, allowing Pawar to accuse it of sidestepping local issues.

Similar charges were hurled by the opposition in the arid Marathwada. However, Fadnavis’s slogan of a drought-free Maharashtra carried the day.

It would be oversimplification to state that the nationalist narrative did not yield results for the ruling party, because most urban areas — except Fadnavis’s hometown Nagpur — sided strongly with the saffron parties and two important regions, Marathwada and Konkan, firmly expressed support for BJP-Sena rule.

The clear takeaway for Sena is that it cannot play ruling ally and opposition at the same time for long. BJP has successfully entered its bastion, the coastal Konkan stretch. Sena’s strike rate across the state is 20% less than that of the Modi-Shah-Fadnavis party (44% as against BJP’s 64%), and BJP is also clearly No. 1 in Mumbai and the wider Mumbai Metropolitan Region for the second time running, having won 16 seats (as against 14 for Uddhav’s party) in the city of Sena’s birth despite having contested fewer seats.

For NCP, it may have helped that long-time “fief-holders” made an exit, allowing some of the alleged “taint” to wash off and for new blood to come in. The ED action against Pawar and Praful Patel enabled the party to come together by invoking “cooperation and not coercion” as the overriding principle of Maharashtra’s politics, the word “cooperation” carrying deep resonance in the western Indian region that built and nurtured the ‘sahakar’ movement.

With the unrelenting onslaught on his strongholds by BJP, Pawar and his party tried to remind their loyal voters of this status and acquired room to project the poll as a straight duel between the BJP brass and the NCP founder.

Why BJP, Sena alliance ended

Nov 12, 2019: The Times of India

Key Highlights

Following poll results, Sena’s continued intransigence was not anticipated

BJP’s view was that succumbing to pressure tactics would seriously undermine its credibility

The party also took a rather hard stance on portfolios and ministerial berths

NEW DELHI: Shiv Sena’s demand for a 50:50 share in ministerial berths, and more so the quest of a “rotational” chief minister, surprised BJP but was in keeping with the steadily deteriorating relations between the Hindutva allies that had eroded trust to the point of constant suspicion. Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s remarks following the results that the numbers should “open everyone’s eyes” and that he was prepared to “wait” till a satisfactory arrangement was worked out had an ominous ring. While Sena’s continued intransigence was not anticipated, BJP decided that it would not give in to demands.

BJP’s view was that succumbing to pressure tactics would seriously undermine its credibility. With Sena’s numbers adding to only a little over half that of BJP, sharing the CM’s post was ruled out. The party also took a rather hard stance on portfolios and ministerial berths.

BJP recognised Sena’s bid to restore parity after having lost the leading role in the 2014 assembly elections. The BJP leadership was, however, not prepared to yield ground, perhaps defying expectations that it would be under pressure to form a government. The party decided not to press for negotiations and instead waited it out as the date marking the end of the current assembly approached. The positions of the two parties hardened and the distrust of recent years gained the upper hand as BJP-Sena relations headed south.

While the saffron alliance won a majority, BJP’s under-performance opened a chasm. The anger in BJP ranks is palpable as it is felt that the party gave away too many seats to its partner. The events of the last three weeks indicate that the alliance is unlikely to be repaired. In the unlikely event of the two parties coming together again, the trust factor will be all but missing.

Nov: The uncertainty after the Assembly elections

Sharad Pawar’s role

Ambarish Mishra, Nov 23, 2019: The Times of India

1978 once more?

Pawar play sees rainbow coalition

NCP president Sharad Pawar’s cautious optimism and ability to bridge political divides stood out as the Congress-NCPShiv Sena coalition was finally sealed, underscoring his role as the state’s most influential politician.

A key NCP functionary pointed out that Pawar had kept his word, recalling a poll rally in Maharashtra last month where the former Union minister and three-time CM had said he would go home only after “sending them (the BJP) packing”. “In less than a month, Pawar has ousted BJP from power in a bloodless coup that will have far-reaching impact on state politics,” the NCP functionary said, adding, “Pawarsaheb has emerged the real winner in the assembly polls.”

Now his administrative acumen and crisis-management skills are expected to stand him in good stead while he tries to keep the Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress alliance on an even keel, said observers.

Days after the poll results, even though it became apparent that Uddhav Thackeray was unlikely to give in to BJP, Pawar had kept his counsel. For nearly a week, Pawar maintained that his party was content to playing a “constructive” role as the Opposition. However, he kept open a line of communication with Shiv Sena through friend and admirer Sanjay Raut. So while Thackeray stepped up his rhetoric against BJP, Pawar began to cajole Congress into joining an alliance. Soon, he was flitting between Mumbai and Delhi, holding talks with Sonia Gandhi and other Congress leaders.

At one stage, it looked as if Sonia would continue to hew close to the party’s line on “ideological incompatibility” with Sena. Unfazed, he got down to finetuning a power-sharing formula and a draft of the common minimum programme, which, he was shrewd enough to know, would find favour with the state Congress.

Again, past experience came to his help. On board the Progressive Democratic Front alliance, which he cobbled to oust Congress Party from power in circa 1978, were disparate political elements like the Jan Sanghis and dyed-inthe-wool Socialists. However, Pawar managed the balance of power with the exquisite skill of an Ikebana expert.

Pictures of the aging warhorse — he will turn 80 next month — addressing a meeting in Satara amid rains went viral and became the defining image of the 2019 polls. The rest, as they say, is history.

Uddhav Thackeray’s role

Ambarish Mishra, Nov 23, 2019: The Times of India

He turned saffron Sena ‘secular’, and emerged as king

Matoshree watchers said even in his wildest dreams, Uddhav Thackeray would hardly have thought of the Shiv Sena chief minister passing through the gilded gates of Mantralaya, the high seat of the government and a Byzantine world of files and fatwas, flanked by NCP-Congress ministers, to revive the Gandhi-Nehru legacy in the state.

They further added that Thackeray would scarcely believe that it is he who has brought about the classic U-turn in state politics: the Sena shifting from saffron to secular, and NCPCongress bigwigs accepting Thackeray as their seniormost partner. A former Sena minister said, “All credit to Uddhavji for breaking the jinx in Maharashtra politics by sealing an alliance with the NCP-Congress. Also, he deserves praise for cutting BJP, which wields unbridled power in the country, to size. Uddhavji truly displayed the fighting spirit of Balasaheb Thackeray in his own quiet way.”

Close friends said Balasaheb’s son, now 59, is made of sterner stuff, but refuses to put his political muscles on display. “He may lack Balasaheb’s charisma, but he can correctly read the political situation,” said an associate. “Uddhav has proved wrong his detractors who had predicted a vertical split in the Sena after Balasaheb’s death in 2012. Well, the Sena is going strong,” he added.

Thackeray couldn’t have chosen a better moment to snap ties with BJP, others said. The saffron alliance was growing stale, and Sena needed a makeover to keep pace with the changing times. Also, Uddhav’s dream of installing a Shiv Sena CM in Mantralaya appeared to be in tatters as BJP rejected Matoshree’s 50:50 formula for sharing power after the state assembly elections.

An embittered Thackeray worked out a two-pronged strategy. First, he steadfastly stuck to his 50:50 formula and shunned all talks with BJP. Sources said he even got himself a new mobile to keep BJP at bay. Second, he allowed his close confidant Sanjay Raut to begin backroom talks with NCP president Sharad Pawar.

Uddhav Thackeray would now need to combine adaptability with political acumen to keep the Sena-NCP-Congress alliance going in Maharashtra for five years. He will have to think of an inclusive and secular agenda, said analysts. “We’ll have to junk our Hindutva baggage — for instance, our demand for Bharat Ratna to V D Savarkar will not go down well with Congress,” said a Sena MLA.

Sanjay Raut’s role

Ambarish Mishra, Nov 23, 2019: The Times of India

When he joined as a modest clerk in the circulation department of one of Mumbai’s leading media houses in the early 1980s, Sanjay Raut was fired by a dream to be the editor-in-chief of the group’s popular Marathi daily.

Over three decades later, Raut has emerged as a key driver for the Shiv Sena-NCPCongress alliance that is set to take off, with the coveted post going to Sena.

Raut has emerged as the Sena’s No. 2, next only to Uddhav Thackeray, in the party’s post-BJP phase. He will be the Sena’s knight in shining armour, penning editorials for Saamna, the Sena mouthpiece, and planning strategies for Thackeray should the latter decide to be the VVIP occupant of Varsha, the CM’s official residence, said political experts. “Raut takes measured but firm steps. He sets forth a goal and follows it assiduously,” said Dinesh Dukhande, a TV journalist who has been following the Sena strategist’s career graph for over a decade.

Ousting BJP from power was Raut’s goal after the recently held state assembly elections, and he pursued it with zeal. “Raut disliked BJP’s allegedly authoritarian style of functioning,” said a media watcher.

Raut stirred the ire of the Sena rank and file by writing angry editorials after BJP refused to accept Thackeray’s 50:50 formula to share power and CMship as well. Raut may be nursing political ambition, but he is shrewd enough not to trample on Matoshree’s toes.

And then, a midnight, 1978-style coup

Nov 23, 2019: The Times of India

Key Highlights

In 1978, Pawar ran the rainbow coalition comprising the Janta Party and the Peasants Workers Party that lasted less than two years

Sharad Pawar walked out with 38 Congress MLAs to form a new government called Samantar Congress (Parallel Congress). Pawar then became the youngest chief minister of the state at the age of 38

NEW DELHI: Ajit Pawar's decision to join hands with the BJP in an act of overnight rebellion bears a striking resemblance to his uncle Sharad Pawar's coup against a government formed by two Congress factions to become the state's youngest chief minister 41 years ago.

In 1978, Pawar ran the rainbow coalition comprising the Janta Party and the Peasants Workers Party that lasted less than two years. Incidentally, this time he is trying to forge a similar alliance in the state by joining hands with the Congress and the Shiv Sena.

Ajit was sworn-in as deputy chief minister on Saturday morning, only to be snubbed by Pawar who said the decision to support the BJP was not backed by him and was his nephew's personal one.

In fact, Pawar's decision in 1978 to establish his own party and run it for a decade earned him the unofficial title of "strongman" in political circles.

Pawar wrote in his book 'On My Terms' that the poll reverses in the 1977 post-Emergency anti-Indira wave shocked many in the state and the country. V N Gadgil lost on a Congress ticket in Baramati, the home turf of the Pawars.

In January, 1978 Indira Gandhi split the Congress, forming Congress (Indira) to take on the parent organisation Congress (S - headed by Sardar Swarn Singh) in the state elections. Pawar stayed with Congress (S) and his mentor Yashwantrao Chavan.

In the state assembly polls held a month later, the Congress (S) won 69 seats as against 65 of Congress (I). The Janta Party had won 99 seats. However, no party got a full majority.

The two factions of the Congress got together to form the government headed by Vasantdada Patil from Congress (S) and with Nashikrao Tirpude from Congress (I) as the Deputy Chief Minister. However, the bickering between the two Congress factions continued which made it difficult to run the government.

Pawar decided to quit. His relations with Janata Party president Chandrashekar helped him a great deal.

"You will have to play a key role in this," Chandrashekar told Pawar. Accordingly, Pawar started seeking support of the MLAs. Sushilkumar Shinde, who went on to become the state chief minister and then Union Home Minister, Datta Meghe and Sundarrao Solanke sent their resignations to the chief minister.

Pawar walked out with 38 Congress MLAs to form a new government called Samantar Congress (Parallel Congress). Pawar then became the youngest chief minister of the state at the age of 38.

The new government was a rainbow coalition of the Janta Party, Peasants Workers Party (PWP) and other smaller parties, senior journalist Anant Bagaitkar said.

When Pawar resigned, the state assembly session was on. "Even while the House was discussing supplementary demands, the government was reduced to a minority, following which chief minister Vasantdada Patil submitted his resignation," Pawar writes. However, with the return of Gandhi to power in 1980, his government was dismissed.

Political Analyst Suhas Palshikar, in a profile on the Maratha strongman titled 'A chapter named Pawar' in a Marathi magazine, writes that Pawar led the party for over a decade and returned to the parent party under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi.

"Because he decided to establish his own party and ran it a for decade, (it) helped him earn the image of a strongman," Palshikar writes.