Revision as of 03:25, 10 January 2018

Uttar Pradesh, some facts regarding elections, assembly (2007, 2012) and general (2009, 2014); The Times of India, Jan 5, 2017

Winning margins in assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, 2007 and 2012; The Times of India, Jan 5, 2017

Performance of Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, 2012, region-wise; The Times of India, Jan 5, 2017

The 16th UP Assembly (2012-17), some facts; The Times of India, Jan 11, 2017

Assembly election verdicts, 1951-2017

See graphic.

UP assembly election verdicts, 1951-2017; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

Congress : 1980-2012

Kaushik Deka , The last of Sheila,you said? “India Today” July 21, 2016

See graphic

Congress in UP over the last three decade , India Today

In 2007 and 2012

Kunal Pradhan , Building brand Akhilesh “India Today” 1/6/2016

Partywise break-up of how caste sub-groups voted in UP assembly elections

2017

The Times of India For a constituency-wise performance of the parties in 2012 and a comparison of the trends and results of the 2012 and 2017 elections, see the graphic ‘The constituency-wise performance of the parties in 2012 and a comparison of the trends and results of the 2012 and 2017 assembly elections in UP.’

Votes won by the winning party as % of total voting population, 2002-17; The constituency-wise performance of the parties in 2012 and a comparison of the trends and results of the 2012 and 2017 assembly elections in UP.
The Times of India

EC refuses permission to launch unemployment allowance, but Congress goes ahead

Kautilya Singh, EC frowns, but Rawat banks on job-card lure, Feb 7, 2017: The Times of India

The Election Commission may have grounded the Harish Rawat government's poll sop of an unemployment allowance cards scheme if the Congress is re-elected, but the party insiders claim over 10,000 registered within 48 hours of its launch.

The scheme promises one job per household for the unemployed between ages 18 and 35 by 2020, and a monthly allowance of Rs 2,500 for one jobless member in each family through a berozgari bhatta card for 36 months.

The Election Commission had earlier refused permission to the Congress to launch the card but it went ahead regardless. Congress MP Kumari Selja launched the scheme along with state unit chief Kishore Upadhyay . It is one of the party's key initiatives in its manifesto, especially as youth make up almost 57% of Uttarakhand's electorate.The Rawat government has high hopes of its `berozgari bhatta card' returning it to power.

On February 3, hours after card distribution began, the Election Commission pulled up the Congress for ignoring its January 23 directive to refrain from initiating such a scheme, that it said violated the model code. The EC sought an explanation from the party within two days.

An EC official said, “There is BATTLE no problem in a party promising UTTARA unemployment allowance in its manifesto. We objected to initiating the registration process of unemployed youth when the model code is in force. So the Congress was issued a show-cause and asked to stop distribution and registration.“ On Monday, the EC reiterated its decision. After the poll panel or der, on Saturday Pauri police seized over 20,000 cards at Satpuli. In Gumkhaal, in the Lansdowne police station area, three people were booked. Registered card holders have been ap parently provided a unique ID to activate the cards. Once actiD vated, the card AND allows the bearer to approach the Rawat government, if it returns, for skill training and jobless allowance. Tightlipped on the exact numbers of enrolments after it ran afoul of the EC, Congress insiders hazard the number registered could have crossed 15,000.

Upadhyay said: “We respect the EC and have done nothing against its guidelines,“ and that the allowance was part of the party manifesto in 2012, when thenCongressman Vijay Bahuguna had started the scheme.

“Uttarakhand has 2.5 lakh voters in the 18-19 age bracket, 21.6 lakh in the 2029 age group and 18.7 lakh voters between 30 and 39.The project target constitutes for a large portion of the vote bank,“ said a Dehradun-based observer.

Large numbers from the hill state have migrated to the plains in search of jobs, making it a poll issue. Poll analyst Jay Singh Rawat said 7 lakh unemployed youth were registered with the Uttarakhand employment exchange, but the actual numbers were higher.

BJP spokesperson Munna Singh Chauhan said, “The EC denied permission to distribute these cards but the Congress had still gone ahead with its campaign.Strict action is required against Congress.“

Female voters

BSP a bit more popular than BJP among women voters, March 15, 2017: The Times of India

Women voters tend to have a slightly higher preference for BSP than men and a correspondingly lower preference for BJP and its allies, an analysis of voting patterns in Uttar Pradesh shows.

In seats where female voters were less than 80% of male voters, the NDA polled 45.5% and BSP just 18.5%. As the proportion of female voters went up, the NDA's vote share steadily dropped and the BSP's rose. At the other extreme, in seats where more women voted than men, BSP had a 24.2% vote share and BJP and its allies 37%.

This emerges from data on male and female voters available on the Election Commission's website for 389 of the state's 403 assembly cons tituencies. Data for the remaining 14 seats was “awaited“, according to the website. An analysis of the data on gender-specific voter turnout done with the detailed results shows that there were 55 seats in which the number of women who voted was less than 80% of the number of men voting. In these seats, the BJP and its allies mopped up 45.5% of the votes cast to win 45 seats, while the BSP got a measly 18.5% and won just one seat.

There were 169 seats in which the number of women voters was between 80% and 90% of men voters. In these seats, the NDA's vote share was 42.2% and the BSP's share 21.5%. In 87 seats, women voters were between 90% and 100% of men voters. Here, the vote share of the BJP and its allies dropped further to 40.5% while the BSP's share rose to 24%.

Finally, there were 78 seats in which women outnumbered men among those who voted. The NDA lost almost one-third of these seats (compared to just one-fifth overall) and its vote share was 37%, distinctly lower than in the state as a whole. In contrast, the BSP won eight of these seats and had a vote share of 24.2%. While there is a clear pat tern of the NDA's vote share dropping and the BSP's ri sing with the proportion of women voters, there is no discernible pattern to the vote shares of the third major formation in this contest -the SP-Congress alliance.

What explains the apparent relative preference of women voters for BSP? While the data cannot answer that question, a couple of plausible reasons can be conjectured. One could be that the BSP being led by a woman makes a difference at the margins.

Another could be the perception that Maywati runs a tight administration that cracks down hard on `gundagardi'. Women are widely believed to be more sensitive to lawlessness as an issue than men. That could be a reason.Whatever the reasons though, the pattern in the data is unmistakable.

Major vote banks

Kunal Pradhan , Battle for UP “India Today” 10/10/2016

See graphic

Major vote banks , India Today , [1] Oct.10,2016

Muslim, SC and Jat voters

Subodh Varma, Myths of Muslim, Dalit and Jat votes busted, March 15, 2017: The Times of India

Vote shares in muslim and reserved constituencies, 2017; Subodh Varma, Myths of Muslim, Dalit and Jat votes busted, March 15, 2017: The Times of India

Numbers Show First Two Groups Backed SP And BSP, While The Third Stood By BJP

Every election campaign throws up myths that get busted by the results.But then, the results themselves generate new myths. The recent UP Assembly elections are no exception. Analysis of detailed results and comparison to earlier elections show up the truth about three riddles and the myths that pose as their answers: what happened to the Muslim vote? What happened to the Dalit vote? And what happened to the Jat vote?

Individual votes cannot be tracked, but voting trends in constituencies give an indication of where preferences of communities are heading. This can be useful to find answers to knotty socio political questions.

The Muslim Vote

The campaign saw an in tense battle between SP and BSP to win over Muslim votes which make up about 19% of the electorate. BJP's resounding victory, even in Muslim concentration areas, has led to speculation that, either the Muslim vote got divided between SP and BSP letting BJP win easily , or that Muslims voted for BJP. Both appear to be erroneous theories.

SP (29%) and BSP (18%) together got 47% vote in the 59 constituencies in UP where more than a quarter of the voters are Muslim. This is virtually unchanged since 2012 elections, although it went down to 43% in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. So, the Muslim support for the two parties is intact. The difference this time was that BJP mopped up most of the other votes -getting 39% of total votes.

This was less than their 43% in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, but still so far ahead of the rivals that they won 39 seats while SP won 17 and BSP ended up with none. SP's 29% vote share in these seats shows that its Muslim support base largely intact.

The Dalit Vote

There was a much hyped battle between BJP and BSP to win Dalit votes, especially non-Jatav Dalits. Dalits make up about 21% of the population in UP. Since BSP lost badly in the elections ending up with just 19 seats, there was a view that Dalits voted en masse for BJP. Actually , BSP has got 24% votes, down from its 27% in 2012 but up from 23% in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Among the 85 reserved seats in the state, BJP outflanked all other parties by getting 40% of the votes with BSP a distant second at 24%.Again, BJP's appeal was across all castes and may have included some Dalit com munities too, but BSP's vote share indicates that it is just about retaining its Dalit base while BJP surged ahead.

The Jat Vote

One big myth that the elections blew up was that of the Jats, a dominant community in western UP, deserting BJP after wholeheartedly supporting them in the previous 2014 election.

In the 73 seats in Phase 1of the polls, BJP's vote share increased from a mere 16% in 2012 to 45% in 2017 while RLD, led by Jat leader Ajit Singh, declined from 11% to just 6%.

Vote shares of all other parties and even of independent candidates declined.This clearly indicates that the Jats had stood by BJP, just as they had during the Lok Sabha elections.

Muslim MLAs reduced from 69 to 24

Muslims miss 'sabka saath', down from 69 to 24 MLAs , March 12, 2017: The Times of India

HIGHLIGHTS

Muslims comprise 19% of the population in Uttar Pradesh

In a state where Muslims are a sizeable vote bank, BJP did not field a single Muslim in the 403 seats.

Muslims have a strong presence in west UP, Rohilkhand, Terai and east UP

LUCKNOW: In Uttar Pradesh, where Muslims comprise 19% of the population, the number from the minority community in the House has declined to 24. It's a marked difference from the 2012 polls when 69 Muslim MLAs entered the legislature.

In a state where Muslims are a sizeable vote bank, BJP did not field a single Muslim in the 403 seats. Muslims have a strong presence in west UP, Rohilkhand, Terai and east UP, and they, along with Yadavs and Dalits, have been the core vote bank of Congress, SP and BSP. This social arithmetic traditionally made them key in candidate selection.

Fewer Muslims on the victory podium indicates that the community's voting preference against BJP was offset by a bigger consolidation of Hindu castes in what is known as reverse polarisation.

A key objective of SP's decision to ally with Congress+ was to consolidate the Muslim votes. The fear was that the Muslim votes would split between SP and BSP, and help BJP sneak through.

The campaign was not bereft of BJP's usual tactics to appeal to communal sentiments. PM Modi stirred things up with his and `Ramzan vs Diwali' comments, implying unfair treatment to Hindus by SP.

The perception that Muslims vote en bloc, and tactically, is one that BJP seems to have used to its advantage, though the jury is out on whether the landslide is due to fatigue with regional parties or an expression of Hindu polarisation.

National Capital Region

Ayaskant Das, Holi party comes early for BJP in NCR, March 12, 2017: The Times of India

Constituency-wise vote share in Gautam Budh Nagar and Ghaziabad; March 12, 2017: The Times of India

Trounces Rivals By Huge Margins, Attributes Landslide Win To Its Strong Organisational Network In Region

Party bags 53% vote share, grabs all five seats in Gzb

The BJP candidates in the district registered impressive wins in all the five assembly constituencies of the district by trouncing their nearest rivals by a huge margin of votes.

The party garnered 53.7% of total votes polled across all five assembly constituencies of Ghaziabad as compared to its state-wide average vote share of 39.7%.

In all but one constituency of the district, that is, Loni, BJP's winning candidates have secured more than 50% of the votes polled. In Loni, Nand Kishor Gujjar of the BJP could secure only 41.2% of the total votes polled.

The biggest victory margin was recorded by BJP candidate Sunil Sharma in the Sahibabad assembly seat, which is primarily urban and includes the trans-Hindon areas of Indirapuram, Vasundhara, Vaishali and Kaushambi.

Sunil Sharma defeated his nearest rival, Amarpal Sharma of Congress, by a huge margin of over 1.50 lakh votes.

On the other hand, BSP, which had won four out of the five assembly seats in Ghaziabad in the 2012 polls, has been completely wiped out. The BSP candidates just managed to secure second position in the assembly seats of Loni, Modinagar, Ghaziabad and Muradnagar. However, its vote share in the district dwindled to a mere 18.3%.

The SP-Congress alliance, which went to the polls with two seats for the former and three for the latter, also drew a blank. The alliance has garnered a mere 19.81% of the total votes polled in the district.The ruling Samajwadi Party had fielded candidates in Loni and Modinagar who have garnered 74,754 votes in all, which is a mere 5.36% of the total votes polled.

SP has attributed its loss to caste-based politics and a division in the Muslim vote bank. “The BSP fielded Muslim candidates in Loni and Modinagar against the candidates of SP. This led to an erosion in the captive Muslim vote bank of the SP. Muslim votes got divided between the SP and the BSP which worked to the benefit of the BJP. Primarily, it seems, BJP has been voted by all other castes except Yadavs and Dalits,“ Samaj wadi Party district president Sajid Hussain said.

BJP has, however, attributed its landslide victory to the party's strong organisational network. “Modiji's leadership skills and the strong organisational network of the party in the region has led to the clean sweep in the district. It's the mandate of the people for the politics of development,“ BJP district president Basant Tyagi said.

“It is the mandate of the people and we respect it. Polarisation tactics were used by BJP to woo voters resulted in the mandate going in their favour,“ Ghaziabad district Congress president Harendra Kasana told TOI.

The lowest margin of victory for BJP has been recorded in Loni assembly seat which has a primarily rural voter base. Nand Kishor Gujjar of the BJP has won the Loni seat by defeating his closes rival Zakir Ali of the BSP by nearly 43,000 votes.

Perceived behaviour of castes, communities in UP, 2017

See graphic.

Perceived behaviour of castes, communities in UP, 2017; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

The region-wise performance of the parties

See graphic.

The region-wise performance of the parties in UP in the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017; The Times of India, March 12, 2017

The turning points of the 2017 elections

The Times of India, Mar 12 2017

KAAM AND KARNAMA

To puncture the Samajwadi Party's claim of good governance, “kam bolta hai“, PM Modi came up with the slogan “karnama bolta hai“. At a Badaun rally on February 11, he said it was the CM's fault if the people had not seen `achhe din' yet THE GRAVE, THE PYRE During the third phase, when the BJP was perceived to be on the backfoot, the PM changed the narrative. If there is a kabristan, there should also be a shamshaan, he said. The opposition saw an attempt to polarise, the BJP said it was only exposing discrimination

GUJARAT KE GADHE

A khilesh Yadav poked fun at Gujarat's aggressive promotion of its wild asses, telling people to be wary of the donkey's exaggerated abilities. Modi turned the jibe around at a Bahraich rally, saying he “worked for the people day and night“ like the inspiring donkey

ROMEO AND JULIET

The BJP promised “anti-Romeo squads“ for women's safety. The opposition saw it as lovejihad-style vigilantism, with the SP's Dimple Yadav saying it would become an “anti RomeoJuliet squad“ to suppress romantic freedom

SLAUGHTERHOUSE SINS

The BJP's manifesto promises to shut illegal and mechanised abattoirs. Amit Shah made that that claim over and over again, vowing an end to these enterprises `across the state from the night of March 12'

2017: Interpreting voter turnout trends

Subhash Mishra, Reading signs in turnout trends across phases, March 3, 2017: The Times of India

Overall turnout of voters (muslims), 2012-17; Subhash Mishra, Reading signs in turnout trends across phases, March 3, 2017: The Times of India

For poll pundits, the declining turnout over the five phases could be an indicator of which way the poll breeze is blowing.

Poll percentage dipped from 64% in the first phase in west UP to 57% in east UP in phase five. This, indicative of a growing indifference of voters towards the election, could disturb calculations of the major parties.

In the first phase that covered Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Meerut and Ghaziabad districts with large populations of Muslims and Jats, poll percentage was a healthy 64.2%, making it clear that the wounds of the communal riots of 2013 still hurt. Killing of Akhlaq in Gautam Buddh Nagar for consuming and storing meat that was allegedly `beef ' became a pan-India issue in 2015, further deepening the divide.

In phase two, mostly in Rohilkhand comprising Bareilly , Moradabad, Saharanpur, Badaun and Rampur districts, turnout rose to 65.2%. These districts too have significant Muslim populations who voted in large numbers along with Hindus. “There is no denying that there is no Muslim MP in UP's 80 Lok Sabha constituencies. That could be a reason for their bid to vote in large numbers and stall BJP from power in the UP assembly ,“ says political scientist Ashutosh Mishra.

As voting moved to central and east UP , voters displayed some indifference.In 2012 assembly polls, 57% voted. In 2017, 57.4% was the turnout. East UP is the state's most backward region and has seen a great degree of out-migration. Tiny land holdings, flood-ravaged fields and limited jobs are major hardships. Elections don't seem to change conditions; people stay away from the polling process. To involve the poor in the election, parties have incited caste and communal feelings. When PM Modi raised the terror attack at Gonda at the heart of eastern UP , it seemed a clear bid to polarise the voter. Yet, people from this region seemingly remained unmoved: only 57% voted.

BJP's UP strategy: 1

Modi Wave On An UPswing Before 2019, March 12, 2017: The Times of India

From DeMo to caste calculus, 10 things BJP did to hit 312

BJP has delivered another knockout perform ance in the latest round of assembly elections. Once again, against heavy odds, Amit Shah has leveraged PM Narendra Modi's popularity to pull off a record-shattering win for the party.

The scale of victory in politically pivotal UP may have shocked opponents and pundits, but it just about surpassed Shah's own estimate. Having fashioned the saffron sweep of 2014, when the party won 71 of the 80 (it helped ally Apna Dal bag two of the rest) Lok Sabha seats from the sprawling state, Shah was confident that BJP could achieve a repeat if it avoided the mistakes that led to its defeat in Bihar in 2015. Here are the 10 things BJP did to bag 312 seats this time:

Astute ticket distribution to non-Yadav backwards who were given more than 130 nominations

Targeting of non-Jatav Dalits, with Pasis getting 25 tickets and Dhobis cornering nine. This amplified the signal given by Shah's earlier decision to appoint Keshav Maurya, a Kushwaha, as state party president

Induction of other backwards and non-Jatav dalits in the central ministry like Krishna Raj, Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti and Apna Dal's Anu priya Patel

Poaching of influential BSP members like Swami Prasad Maurya and R K Chaudhary . This made BSP look like a party of Jatavs alone. The same tactic was used to highlight Akhilesh Yadav's dependence on Yadavs

BJP used demonetisation and surgical strikes to project Modi as a leader capable of taking decisive action and pro-poor measures Speedy implementation of welfare schemes like Ujjwa la, subsidy for toilets, and better supply of urea. Promises of more populist measures like farm loan waiver and interest-free loans were a hit Stoked resentment against SP's perceived tilt towards Muslims and Yadavs and benefited from a backlash. Modi and Shah promised end of “discrimination“ in “rozgar and FIR“

A not-so-subtle messaging to Hindus through promises to shut down mechanised abbatoirs and set up anti-Ro meo squads Denial of any tickets to Muslims helped it present itself as a Hindu party “correcting“ its rivals' politics of “appeasement“

Did not project a CM as it had no leader to match either Akhilesh or Mayawati. Any choice would have led to caste rivalries and unravelled the coalition. Focus remained on Modi who trumped rivals.Modi's interventions, BJP feels, boosted its prospects in 50 marginal seats.

BJP's UP strategy: 2

Son Of The Toil Gets Uttar Right For BJP, Akhilesh Singh, March 12, 2017: The Times of India

 Hard knocks in Bihar shaped BJP's UP strategy

The hard lessons BJP learnt from its defeat in Bihar in 2015 were put to good use while planning its strategy for Uttar Pradesh 2017. This time round, BJP avoided the pitfalls of strident election rhetoric and steered clear of self-goals such as Mohan Bhagwat's comments on quotas. Decisions on ticket distribution were carefully calibrated and local leaders were involved in every aspect of decision-making.

BJP stuck to a fairly large bouquet of issues, ranging from Hindutva concerns like a ban on mechanised slaughterhouses and Romeo squads to welfare schemes such as farm loan waivers and a package for Bundelkhand. Apart from showcasing PM Narendra Modi as its poll mascot, the party cut its reliance on central leaders, and gave sufficient space to state leaders.

Candidates were carefully chosen to reflect a caste balance spectrum with focus on non-Yadav OBCs. Three candidates were chosen from each constituency , and the MP had a major say . Candidates who had suffered successive defeats were not considered despite protests.State president Keshav Prasad Maurya, state general secretary (organisation) Shiv Kumar and national vice president Dinesh Sharma, were assigned the task of identifying candidates who were further vetted by BJP chief Amit Shah with poll managers like Sunil Bansal playing a key role.

The campaign narrative had two distinct strands.While party seniors stuck to the development agenda, local functionaries focused on micro issues to strike a chord with the voters. BJP's cause received a boost when the Dayashankar Singh-Swati Singh episode happened. After making slanderous remarks against BSP supremo Mayawati, BJP member Dayashankar was sacked as state general secretary . But the equally offensive diatribe by BSP functionaries against Dayashankar's wife Swati polarised upper castes against Mayawati.

The election results show a rare convergence of Brahmins and Thakurs, who together constitute around 19% of voters. Firebrand Hindutva speaker Yogi Adityanath criss-crossed the state. Sensing legal hurdles, the party was pragmatic and didn't make fresh promises on the Ram temple and reiterated its construction through Constitutional means.

Unlike Bihar, state leaders led from the front during `parivartan' rallies with `nukkad' meetings and direct interaction with the people as the highlights. Modi and Shah were reserved for the bigger occasions.

“We had direct connect with more than two crore people across the state after covering 17,000km during the parivartan yatra,“ said Maurya.