Revision as of 20:09, 6 March 2018

Voter turnout in elections

1967-2013 (LS, Assembly)

Voter turnout in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Tripura, 1967-2013
From: Oinam Sunil & Biswendu Bhattacharjee, February 19, 2018: The Times of India

See graphic:

Voter turnout in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Tripura, 1967-2013

2016-18: BJP Campaign to Dislodge CPM

Prabin Kalita, BJP The New Sarkar In Tripura, March 4, 2018: The Times of India

Two-And-A-Half-Year Campaign Dislodges Party That Held Sway For 25 Years

It took a relentless two-and-a-half-year campaign to dislodge a party that had held sway for 25 years. With its focus on outgoing chief minister Manik Sarkar’s failure to implement the Seventh Pay Commission and growing unemployment, political violence and corruption, BJP seemed to lay siege to CPM.

In the first direct fight between BJP and the Left, the saffron party wasn’t expected to pull ahead — until a few weeks ago. BJP, which did not have a representative even at the councillor level, won 35 of the 50 seats it contested for the 60-member assembly. Its ally, Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), won eight of nine seats. Election to one constituency was countermanded because of the death of the CPM candidate.

The Left front managed to win just 16 seats, while its traditional rival, Congress didn’t win even one. With this, the Grand Old Party seems to have been pushed into near irrelevance in most of the north-east.

The Left front’s defeat could mean a huge setback to its units in Kerala, where it is in government, and Bengal, which it ruled for 34 years till 2011. It also puts Left ideology in danger of becoming obscure in the country.

Compared to Assam and Manipur, which BJP has won over the last two years, Tripura offered a better show. Its vote share soared from 1.5% in 2013 to 43% this time. It holds a majority on its own. The Left front’s vote share, meanwhile, fell to 42.7% from 53.8% in 2013.

BJP in-charge of north-east Ram Madhav described the victory as “revolutionary”. He said, “This is not just a mandate for us. This is the desire of 37 lakh people for freedom. We will create a new Tripura where there will be no place for violence and hatred.”

Apart from development and corruption, the BJP campaign focused on issues related to tribals, who constitute about one-third of the electorate, and offered them more autonomy.

In victory too, Prime Minister Narendra Modi continued his blistering criticism of Sarkar and the Left front, with a tweet that said, “While we are naturally delighted about the historic victory in Tripura, we will always have in our thoughts and prayers the BJP Karyakartas who lost their lives due to mindless Communist violence. It is due to their courage that the party has reached where it has today.”

He said the BJP was fully committed to the overall transformation of the north-east. “This region is blessed with immense potential to become a powerhouse of development. The central government has already undertaken numerous efforts for better growth and opportunities in the north-east,” he said.

Sarkar didn’t spend much time with the media and seemed to have accepted defeat. Sarkar, regarded as one of India’s ‘cleanest’ politicians because of his Spartan lifestyle, said, “People have voted us out of power after 25 years. We thank all those who voted for us.” He is leading from Dhanpur, his home constituency, by 5,000 votes.

The CPM politburo, on the other hand, was scathing in its response. It accused BJP of using money power to win the polls. CPM protested against the Election Commission’s decision to stop counting and wanted the winner to be declared.

IPFT leader NC Debbarma added, “People have given the BJP-IPFT alliance their mandate and we have to abide by it responsibly.”

2018

How BJP wooed Bengalis, kept tribals on its side

Prabin Kalita, How BJP wooed Bengali Hindus and yet kept tribals on its side, March 4, 2018: The Times of India

In 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan of driving out every single illegal Bangladeshi migrant from the country drove voters in Assam to press the button in favour of BJP. The same formula was nuanced two years later to deliver another winning performance, in Tripura, despite the majority of voters there being those who had entered the once-tribal state from across the border.

Why did Bengali-majority Tripura respond so positively to this? The answer is clear. The Left did not anticipate the advantage BJP would derive from the Centre’s move to amend the Citizenship Act of 1955 to make illegal migrants eligible for citizenship on the basis of religion. It was music to most migrants from erstwhile East Bengal and Bangladesh — they are Hindus by faith.

The influx of Hindu Bengali refugees post-Partition and the 1971 war reduced the tribals from being the majority community to a minority. But knowing well that without the 20 reserved tribal seats it would be impossible to snatch Tripura from the Left, BJP allied with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura, which has been fighting for a separate tribal state. It, however, took care to assuage Bengali feelings by being non-committal on the statehood.

Even as it placated the Bengalis, wooing the tribals was a priority since the state is home to 19 tribes that comprise 31% of the population. “We told the tribals that the citizenship amendment would be of little relevance in Tripura,” said a senior BJP leader.

The Left did not help its own cause by believing that the amendment would not much impact the state’s demographics.

One hurdle remained. IPFT was ready to forge an alliance with BJP only after getting the Centre’s assurance that the demand for Twipraland would be looked into. The Centre obliged, and though the national party has maintained it cannot accede to the statehood, IPFT chief N C Debbarma asserted, “In a way, it means that the Centre has not rejected our movement, but has taken it up for consideration.”

The Left claims it did more for tribal welfare than anyone else. But that held no attractions for the tribal voters. What did was BJP’s gestures, whether it was representing Bharat Mata as a tribal woman or promising the Bharat Ratna to Tripura’s last sovereign, King Bir Bikram. For the tribals, this indicated a big change in political perceptions — the Left had never glorified the Manikya dynasty.

These gamble paid off: BJP won all the 10 tribal seats it contested and its ally, the nine it fought. In fact, one more tribal seat could go to the alliance. Polling at Charilam was deferred to March 12 after the death of the CPM candidate.