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From The Times of India

In brief

The Times of India

See graphic

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) classifies cyclonic winds into three categories--cyclonic disturbance (maximum wind speed 59kmhr), cyclones (wind speed 60 to 90 kmhr) and severe cyclones (wind speed 90 kmhr or more). Cyclone data for the years 1891 to 2012 shows a seasonal pattern. The mildest of these turbulent wind systems -cyclonic disturbances -peak in the monsoon season with an average of six to seven such incidents a year. The probability of cyclones and severe cyclones, on the other hand, is highest in the post-monsoon months. The data also shows that on an average, the Bay of Bengal is hit by at least one severe cyclone and a minimum of two cyclones each year

The cyclone season

October 10, 2018: Hindustan Times

The country’s cyclone season runs from April to December, with severe storms often causing dozens of deaths, evacuations of tens of thousands of people from low-lying villages and wide damage to crops and property.

Categorisation of cyclones

October 10, 2018: Hindustan Times

Here’s how cyclones are categorised and what they mean:

Categories of Cyclones

Category 1: Wind and gales of 90-125 kph, negligible house damage, some damage to trees and crops.

Category 2: Destructive winds of 125-164 kph. Minor house damage, significant damage to trees, crops and vehicles, risk of power failure.

Category 3: Very destructive winds of 165-224 kph. Some roof and structural damage, some caravans destroyed, power failure likely.

Category 4: Very destructive winds of 225-279 kph. Significant roofing loss and structural damage, vehicles blown away, widespread power failures.

Category 5: Very destructive winds gusts of more than 280 kph. Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.

A backgrounder

Why we don’t have hurricanes in India, November 19, 2018: The Times of India

Cyclones in India- a backgrounder
From: Why we don’t have hurricanes in India, November 19, 2018: The Times of India

After Titli and Luban, now Gaja. And that’s just in 2018. Cyclones of devastating impact often have the most disarming names. But who names cyclones and why is it hurricane Katrina but cyclone Nilofar?

What is the difference between hurricane, typhoon and cyclone?

They are all tropical cyclones, but different basins use different nomenclature. Tropical cyclones are formed in eight basins — Northern Atlantic, Northeastern Pacific, North Central Pacific, Northwestern Pacific, Northern Indian Ocean, Southwestern Indian Ocean, South and Southwestern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Ocean. In the North Atlantic Ocean, Northwest Pacific Ocean east of the International Date Line and South Pacific Ocean, they are called hurricanes. Typhoon is the name given to a tropical cyclone formed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of the dateline. In southwest Pacific Ocean and southeast Indian Ocean, it’s called a severe tropical cyclone. Similarly, tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean and southwest Indian Ocean are called severe cyclonic storm and tropical cyclone, respectively.

How is a cyclone formed?

A tropical cyclone is a storm system that is characterised by a lowpressure centre that produces strong winds and heavy rain. A tropical cyclone feeds on heat released by the condensation of moist air. The latent heat gets converted into kinetic energy and feeds the strong winds emerging out of it. Because of its warm centre, it’s often called a warm core storm system. Cyclonic storms have counterclockwise rotation in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise rotation in the Southern Hemisphere. Developed over warm water bodies, like oceans and seas, they lose their strength once they move over land. Apart from ( their devastating nature, they help in the global atmospheric circulation mechanism by carrying heat and energy away from the tropics towards temperate latitudes.

Why are cyclones named?

Tropical cyclones are named to provide ease of communication between forecasters and the general public. Apart from this, they can often last a week or longer and the same basin can have more than one cyclone. Hence, assigning names reduces confusion about what storm is being described. Naming of cyclones started in the early 20th century when an Australian forecaster started naming cyclones after politicians he disliked. During World War II, American meteorologists started naming cyclones after their wives and girlfriends and all cyclones were christened with female names. In the early 50s, they were identified by the phonetic alphabet — Able, Baker, Charlie and so on. In 1953, the US Weather Bureau again switched to women’s names. Now, cyclones are given names that are contributed by member nations of the World Meteorological Organisation. The new names include those identified with men, women, flowers and so on. In the North Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific regions, feminine and masculine names are alternated in alphabetical order during a given season.

What is the process of naming cyclones?

The regional body responsible for monitoring tropical cyclones in a particular basin makes a list of cyclone names for that particular basin. There are five such bodies that keep 10 pre-designated lists of cyclone names. The names are proposed by the member countries. For instance, the names of cyclones in northern Indian Ocean are contributed by Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Different basins use different methods for naming cyclones. In Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic there are six lists, each having 21 names. These lists are annually rotated. The names of exceptionally destructive storms are retired from the list and hence Katrina can never reappear. In northern Indian Ocean there is no yearly list.

Naming tropical cyclones

The Hindustan Times, December 9, 2016

October 10, 2018: Hindustan Times

How are tropical cyclones named?

• Tropical cyclones are named to provide easy communication between forecasters and the general public regarding forecasts, watches, and warnings.

• The first use of a proper name for a tropical cyclone was by an Australian forecaster early in the 20th century. He gave tropical cyclone names after political figures he disliked.

• During World War II, tropical cyclones were informally given women’s names by US Army Air Corp and Navy meteorologists (after their girlfriends or wives) who were monitoring and forecasting tropical cyclones over the Pacific.

• From 1950 to 1952, tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean were identified by the phonetic alphabet (Able-Baker-Charlie-etc.), but in 1953 the US Weather Bureau switched to women’s names. In 1979, the World Meteorological Organization and the US National Weather Service (NWS) switched to a list of names that also included men’s names.

• The Northeast Pacific basin tropical cyclones were named using women’s names starting in 1959 for storms near Hawaii and in 1960 for the remainder of the Northeast Pacific basin. In 1978, both men’s and women’s names were utilised.

• The Northwest Pacific basin tropical cyclones were given women’s names officially starting in 1945 and men’s names were also included beginning in 1979. Beginning on 1 January 2000, tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin are being named from a new and very different list of names.

• The Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones were first named during the 1960/1961 season.

• The Australian and South Pacific region (east of 90E, south of the equator) started giving women’s names to the storms in 1964 and both men’s and women’s names in 1974/1975.

• The North Indian Ocean region tropical cyclones are being named since October 2004.

In 2016, Bay of Bengal witnessed Roanu, Kyant, Nada and Vardah (names of the tropical cyclones) which also affected India.

Vardah is the Arabic and Urdu word for ‘rose’, a name provided by Pakistan in the comprehensive nomenclature list for cyclones in the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal.

In September 2004, an international panel on tropical cyclones decided that countries from the region would each put in names, which would be assigned to storms in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

Eight countries -- India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Sri Lanka and Thailand – participated and came up with a list of 64 names.

In the event of a storm, the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, New Delhi, selects a name from the list.

The late origin of this naming system -- unlike storms in the Atlantic, which have been getting named since 1953 -- was ostensibly to protect sensitivities in the ethnically diverse region.

The purpose of the move was also to make it easier for “people easily to understand and remember the tropical cyclone/hurricane in a region, thus to facilitate disaster risk awareness, preparedness, management and reduction,” according to the IMD.

Citizens can submit names to the Director General of Meteorology, IMD, for consideration, but the weather agency has strict rules for the selection process.

A name, for instance, ‘should be short and readily understood when broadcast’. The names must also be neutral, ‘not culturally sensitive and not convey some unintended and potentially inflammatory meaning’.

Furthermore, on the account of the ‘death and destruction’ a storm in the Indian Ocean causes, their names are retired after use, unlike those in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific lists, which are reused every few years.

Names reused every six years

• Atlantic and Pacific storm names are reused every six years, but are retired “if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of the name would be insensitive or confusing,” according to forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center in Miami.

• Hurricane Sandy was the 77th name to be retired from the Atlantic list since 1954. It will be replaced with “Sara” beginning in 2018, when the list from 2012 is repeated. Hurricane Sandy was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season that hit the US last year.

Not without controversy

Cyclone Mahasen, which hit in 2013 and was named by Sri Lanka, was changed to Viyaru after protests by nationalists and officials in Sri Lanka.

They said Mahasen was a king who had brought peace and prosperity to the island, and it was wrong to name a calamity after him.

Cyclone Vardah: December 2016

Cyclone Vardah, evacuation and caution; Operation Madad by the Indian Navy, some factual information; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, December 13, 2016

Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Please see: Andaman And Nicobar Islands: Natural calamities

Tamil Nadu

A pictoral representation of cyclone Vardah heading towards Chennai in Tamil Nadu; Graphic courtesy: The Hindu, December 12, 2016

The Hindu, December 12, 2016

Cyclone Vardah heads towards Chennai shores

Cyclonic storm Vardah is likely to make landfall by December 12, 2016 along north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast, close to Chennai, accompanied by strong winds with speeds of 80 to 90 kmph.

S. Balachandran, director, Area Cyclone Warning Centre in Chennai, told the media on Sunday the rains would gradually increase from the morning of December 12 and were expected to last until the next day in the northern districts of Chennai, Tiruvallur and Kancheepuram.

Moderate rain

S.B.Thampi, Deputy Director General of Meteorology said, most places along north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts would get to light to moderate rain with possibilities of heavy rainfall of up to 20 cm as the system makes landfall.

“During landfall, Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram and Puducherry will get rainfall and once the system crosses, Vellore and Dharmapuri will begin to get rains,” he said.

Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam chaired a meeting in the Secretariat on Sunday to review the preparations by government agencies. Schools and colleges in Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Villupuram and Cuddalore districts have been closed on Monday.

The government also issued an advisory to private undertakings and establishments to permit their staff to avail of a holiday or to work from home.

“Due to the storm surge, the seas are expected to be rough and the tidal wave will be 1 m higher than normal. Fishermen have been warned not to venture out into the sea,” he said.

National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and State Disaster Response Force teams have been stationed at Chennai, Tiruvallur and Kancheepuram districts as a precautionary measure.

Impact

The Hindu, December 13, 2016

Cyclone Vardah made landfall in Chennai on December 12, 2016 between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m., uprooting trees, defacing highrises, smashing cars, disrupting public transport and telecommunication, bringing the metropolitan area to a standstill.

The weather system that was first noticed nearly five days ago, grew into a ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ and by the time it crossed the city near the Chennai Port, it had weakened into a ‘severe cyclonic storm’ with maximum wind speeds touching 110 kmph-120 kmph.

Lull as eye crosses city

This was a large weather system, measuring nearly 40 km in diameter, which explains the time taken for the system to cross.

There was a lull between 2-30 p.m. and 5 p.m. as the eyewall of the cyclone was in transit and it normally is empty, bringing very little, or no rainfall.

The windspeeds decreased to 60-70 kmph, and the system now a ‘cyclonic storm’ moved westwards, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall to the interior areas as well. Rainfall over the northern coastal districts is expected to continue till Tuesday noon. Vardah, an Urdu word meaning red rose, contributed by Pakistan, will turn into a deep depression early on Tuesday, sources said.

While vast devastation was caused to trees and property, the total rainfall received has only partly bridged the city’s rain deficit. Before Vardah struck, the annual rainfall deficit was over 60 cm, and while the storm has narrowed the gap, there is a solid 40 cm of rainfall the city needs for the reservoirs to fill up and meet its water needs until the next monsoon.

Water managers expect another spell of rainfall before the next monsoon.

Official sources said three people had died from rain-related causes in the State on Monday. Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam announced a solatium of Rs. 4 lakh each to the families of the victims.

Corporation officials pegged the number of trees fallen at 568 along the 471 bus routes and over 33,000 interior roads in the 426 sq km of the Greater Chennai Corporation limits, impeding the flow of traffic.

Most of the suburbs were cut off from other parts of the metropolitan area.

As dark clouds gathered over the city all day, power supply was disrupted. Banking transactions were affected and PoS devices failed at retail outlets.

Holiday for schools

The Tamil Nadu government declared Tuesday would be a holiday for educational institutions in three districts.

“All government, government-aided, private schools, colleges and other educational institutions in Chennai, Kancheepuram and Tiruvallur districts will remain closed on December 13,” an official release said.

Steps by the central government

The Hindu, December 19, 2016

Central team to visit TN to assess Vardah impact

At least 18 people were killed when cyclone Vardah hit Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh on December 12.

The team, headed by Joint Secretary Praveen Vashishtha from the Home Ministry comprised officials from the Ministries of Finance, Agriculture, Industries and Rural Development, among others.

Immediately after the cyclone, the Chief Minister had sought disbursal of Rs. 1,000 crore as an interim relief package. However, the Central Government had responded by releasing an interim aid of Rs. 500 crore, which the State felt was inadequate.

Mr. Panneerselvam, accompanied by officials, called on Tamil Nadu Governor (in-charge) Ch. Vidyasagar Rao at the Raj Bhavan. The meeting, described as a courtesy call in an official release, came as a surprise since it came just one day ahead of the Chief Minister’s Delhi visit.

Andhra Pradesh

The Andhra Pradesh government remains on high alert, monitoring the progress of cyclone Vardah with real-time updates from the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), even as the system changed course towards the northern Tamil Nadu coast. Its initial track forecast landfall between East Godavari (Kakinada) and Nellore districts.

The government has been tapping into ISRO’s data following an understanding reached with the agency earlier this year for weather forecasting.

Naidu meets ISRO team

Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu, who cancelled his Dubai visit to monitor the likely impact of Vardah, held a meeting with ISRO scientists on Saturday.

According to official sources, the State government is getting inputs from the ISRO through its National Remote Sensing Centre and other wings round the clock.

Contingency plan

Later in a teleconference, Mr. Naidu told officials of various departments that the cyclone could cross the coast between Sriharikota and Chennai by Monday evening and trigger heavy rains in Chittoor, Kadapa and Nellore districts. He called upon the heads of departments to be prepared to face the contingency by drawing on their experience during Cyclone Hudhud two years ago.

NDRF teams have been deployed in Sullurpet and Tada in Nellore district. Four IAS officers — Mukesh Kumar Meena, B. Sridhar, M. Ravi Chandra and Ram Gopal — have been deputed as special officers to Prakasam, Nellore, Chittoor and Kadapa to handle the situation.

Cyclone Mora: May 2017

Bangladesh and northeastern India

May 31, 2017: The Hindu

Cyclone Mora that lashed Bangladesh's coastlines forcing the evacuation of millions of people and shutting the country's main port and river transport, killed at least six people in Cox’s Bazar and Rangamati before moving to northeastern India.

The cyclone, which lashed the coastal belt with a wind speed of 128 kmph and made landfall at around 6 a.m. (0000 GMT), cut off Kutubdia, Moheshkhali and Teknaf from other parts of the country.

Road transportation was affected, phone lines were disrupted, more than 20,000 houses destroyed and hundreds of trees were uprooted. The Disaster Management Ministry said it moved to safety more than 2.5 million people in 10 coastal districts which were most vulnerable to the tropical storm as the Met Office upgraded the cyclone warning to Great Danger No. 10, the highest level.

About 18 million people live in 19 coastal districts, 10 of them in high-risk areas. As it moved towards India, heavy showers and gusty winds lashed Mizoram on Tuesday disrupting power and telecommunication network, damaging houses and triggering landslides.

Cyclone Ockhi: December 2017

In brief

Amitabh Sinha, A cyclone called Ockhi — why this is raising such an unusual storm, December 4, 2017: The Indian Express

The name Ockhi was given by Bangladesh, (In Bengali, ockhi means ‘eye’.)

Cyclones are no strangers to the Indian coast, our east coast in particular witnessing several cyclonic storms each year. Yet, Ockhi, the latest powerful cyclone, is unlike other recent ones.

What is special about Ockhi?

Mostly, the area in which it developed. Cyclones are known to originate in both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea sides of the northern Indian Ocean; there is much more frequency on the Bay of Bengal side though, especially of the stronger cyclones — in fact, the Bay of Bengal side witnesses four times more cyclones than the Arabian Sea side on average.

But Ockhi originated near the south-western coast of Sri Lanka, and travelled very near the southern-most tip of the Indian mainland, along the coasts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, towards the Lakshadweep islands, where it was at its most powerful. It weakened considerably after that and continued further, taking a north-easterly turn towards the Maharashtra and Gujarat coastlines —cyclones in this area are not a common phenomenon.

Why does the Bay of Bengal have more cyclones than the Arabian Sea?

Meteorologists say the relatively colder waters of the Arabian Sea are not conducive to the formation and intensification of cyclones. Additionally, the eastern coast of India receives cyclones that form not just in the Bay of Bengal, mostly around the Andaman Sea near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, but also those travelling from the Pacific Ocean, where the frequency of ‘typhoons’, as these are called there, is quite high. Most of these cyclones weaken considerably after encountering a big landmass. Therefore, these do not travel to the Arabian Sea side. The western coast of India thus witnesses only those cyclones that originate locally or the ones, like Ockhi, that travel from the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka.

How powerful was Ockhi?

Ockhi was described as a ‘very severe cyclonic storm’, the third strongest category according to the definitions used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Cyclones are categorised by the maximum wind speed they generate. At its most powerful, Ockhi had wind speeds between 155 and 165 km per hour, touching the upper border for ‘very severe cyclonic storm’.

Cyclones with wind speeds between 165 and 220 km per hour are classified as ‘extremely severe cyclonic storm’. Those with even higher wind speeds are called ‘super-cyclones’. The most famous instance of a ‘super-cyclone’ was the one that hit the coast of Odisha in October 1999. It was the strongest-ever cyclone recorded in that area, with wind speeds touching 260 km per hour. It was also the most devastating cyclone to have hit India.

The 2013 Phailin cyclone very nearly got categorised as a super-cyclone. It had maximum wind speeds of around 220 km per hour.

Cyclone forecasts by the IMD in the recent past have been made five to six days in advance, thereby minimising the damage caused — was the IMD late in issuing a warning for Ockhi?

How early the forecast is depends on how far we are from the place where the cyclone is emerging. Many of the big cyclones in recent years, like Phailin in 2013, Hudhud in 2014 or Vardah in 2016, developed near the Andaman Sea. From there, it took those cyclones about five to six days to hit the Andhra Pradesh or Odisha coasts.

These forecasts can be made only after an emerging depression is detected to have the properties of a cyclonic storm. This was true in the case of Ockhi as well. But the origin of Ockhi was much closer home. The cyclone formation was detected during the morning of Wednesday, November 29. An alert was issued around noon. But many areas in Tamil Nadu and on the Kerala coast started feeling the impact from Thursday itself. A day later, the Lakshadweep islands bore the brunt of the cyclone. Because it developed nearby, the lead time for the forecast was much less than in other recent cyclone cases.

Impact, state-wise

Goa

Prakash Kamat, December 5, 2017: The Hindu

Ripple effects

High tides due to the ripple effectasof Ockhi cyclone that hit Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep damaged several beach shacks, temporary eateries and other tourist structures along Arambol, Morjim, Mandrem and Cavelossim.

Several shacks have reportedly been affected by the swelling of waters along the coastline, due to the twin impact of Ochki cyclone and the super moon last night. Several videos of sea water creeping dangerously close to beach shacks and shack workers scurrying to salvage their beach beds and other equipment were also uploaded to social media on Monday, triggering panic among the tourism and travel industry stakeholders, even as government sources said that efforts were on to declare the damage as a state disaster. The maximum losses was reported in the coastal sub-district of Pernem, where nearly 30 shacks were damaged.

Over 10 shacks at Morjim were damaged while eight each in Mandrem and Arambol too were damaged due to the high waves.

Shack owners claimed that mattresses, plastic tables and other property were damaged by the waves lashed the shacks. There were reports of damages to electronic items such as refrigerators. The water level was so high that the waves inundated their kitchens and destroyed food items which were kept on ground.

Mr. D’Souza said this may force the government to reconsider the location of temporary shack when permits are allotted.

“It is, nevertheless, an eye opener not only for Goa, but other coastal states too, to review tourism trade activities close to the shoreline,” he added.

Meanwhile, a government spokesperson said on Sunday that fishermen have been asked to not venture into the sea at least for the next three days.

A report from North Goa Magistrate Nila Mohanan said that there was considerable damage to almost 50 shacks in Morjim, Mandrem, Arambol and Querim beaches in Pernem taluk of North Goa. In Bardez taluk, only soil erosion in Anjuna and Baga beaches and damage to a retaining wall at Coco beach in Nerul have been been reported.

Initiatives

Op Sahayam/ Indian Navy

December 7, 2017: The Hindu

It has provided assistance to 187 people in distress

The Navy has so far provided assistance to 187 people in distress in sea, as on December 7, 2017, besides saving 148 lives as part of Op Sahayam, an exercise for search and rescue, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) launched in the wake of Cyclone Ockhi.

The force has also evacuated three bodies from deep sea. A media release said nine naval ships besides helicopters and race aircraft remained deployed for extended scouring of seas up to 300 miles west of the Lakshadweep and Minicoy islands and 450 miles off Kerala coast. A P8-I long-range maritime patrol aircraft detected a fishing vessel, St Damian, late Tuesday night some 180 miles northwest of Kavaratti and directed INS Chennai to render assistance. “The 13-member crew were taken on board Chennai early morning on December 6 and provided with food, water and medical aid. The boat was towed and handed over to Coast Guard Ship Shoor as part of Op Synergy since the boat engine had become unserviceable and could not be repaired in sea despite the best efforts by the team of INS Chennai,” the release said.

INS Kalpeni embarked six local fishermen from Kochi and INS Kabra embarked two fishermen from Kollam to join the ongoing SAR (search and rescue) efforts. “INS Jamuna positioned at Kavaratti has provided 12,000 litres of fresh water as requested by the island administration.”

INS Sharda, which returned to Kochi for refuelling, has now embarked materials requested by the Minicoy administration. The items will be delivered on Thursday morning. The naval contingent at Minicoy actively involved in clearing of roads and distribution of rations, the Navy said.

Cyclone Titli: October 2018

Impact, state-wise

Odisha

October 11, 2018: India Today

Cyclone Titli has made landfall on the coast of Odisha. It is a very severe cyclonic storm. The location of the landfall is 86km Southwest of Gopalpur in Odisha. The cyclone is forecasted to bring in its wake very heavy rain, which could lead to flooding, and strong winds. By night of October 11, 2018, Titli will weaken into a cyclonic storm before ultimately dissipating as a depression by the night of October 12.

Impact on agriculture- Kharif crop

Kharif crop over 2,13,801 ha affected, houses damaged, October 17, 2018: The Hindu

The devastation wrought by the cyclonic storm Titli and the resultant heavy rain has cast a shadow on Dussehra festivities across Odisha, especially for farmers.

Hundreds of puja pandals in the State — where Durga Puja got under way — are witnessing low turnout as people are yet to recover from the shock of the cyclone.

After toiling for six months and investing hard-earned savings, farmers were anticipating a healthy harvest in the next two months. However, cyclone and heavy rain damaged the standing crop at many places.

The kharif crop has been affected over an area of 2,13,801 hectares (paddy 1,48,681 ha and non-paddy 65,120 ha) in nine districts — Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Kandhamal, Mayurbhanj, Cuttack, Khordha, Balasore and Puri.

The damage has been severe in Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada and Kandhamal. Although all is not lost in districts like Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur and Jajpur, farmers fear that there would be a drop in harvest.

“Multi-department assessment of crop damage is under progress and the final report is expected within a week,” said Bishnupada Sethi, Special Relief Commissioner.

The SRC has also directed District Collectors to provide ex-gratia to the next of the kin of those who died in the cyclone and the resultant floods within three days. The Odisha government had earlier announced an ex-gratia of ₹4 lakh each to the next of kin of the deceased.

As per a report of the Directorate of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Services, livestock loss has been severe. Fishermen were also not spared, with 300 boats fully damaged and 265 partially damaged. Moreover, 607 fish ponds covering 428.97 ha and 69 private fish seed farms in an area of 47.250 ha have been damaged.

“Who is thinking of any Dussehra festivities? The first priority is to repair damaged houses as winter is fast approaching. This Dussehra has turned into a black one for us,” said Haribandhu Karji, former sarpanch of Gangabada panchayat of Gajapati district, which was worst-hit by the disaster.

Cyclone ‘Gaja’: November 2018

Impact, state-wise

Tamil Nadu and Puducherry- heavy rainfall

November 12, 2018: The Hindu

Coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu would experience moderate rainfall and heavy rainfall in isolated places from the night of November 14, the Met office said. The deep depression over the Bay of Bengal intensified into Cyclone ‘Gaja’. North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry are likely to get good rain on November 14 and 15, India Meteorological Department officials said.

Named ‘Gaja’, the cyclone lay 840 km east of Chennai and 880 km east of Nagapattinam.

May weaken gradually

It is expected to move west-northwestwards during the next 36 hours and then west-southwestwards towards the north Tamil Nadu–south Andhra Pradesh coasts in the subsequent 48 hours. While moving west-southwest, it is likely to weaken gradually and cross the north Tamil Nadu–south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Sriharikota during the forenoon of November 15. Rainfall in most places, with heavy spells at isolated places, is likely to start over north coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from the evening of November 14.

According to the the IMD bulletin, rainfall in most places with heavy falls at isolated places is likely to commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu and the adjoining south coastal Andhra Pradesh from evening of November 14.

On November 15, the rainfall intensity will increase gradually at most places and it will be heavy to very heavy at a few places and extremely heavy (above 20 cm) at isolated places over north Tamil Nadu.

Rainfall is likely to be heavy to very heavy over south Tamil Nadu, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.

100 kmph gale wind

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph is likely to commence along and off north Tamil Nadu–south Andhra Pradesh coasts from November 14 morning. It is likely to increase gradually, with wind speed at 80-90 kmph off north Tamil Nadu–south Andhra Pradesh coasts over west central & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal from midnight onwards.

As the sea will be rough, fishermen have been advised to not venture in from 12 November. The fishermen, who were in deep sea, have been advised to return by November 12, the officials said.

As for Chennai, the sky will be cloudy and some areas will get mild showers for the next two days. While the maximum temperature will be 32 degree Celsius, the minimum temperature will be 24 degree Celsius.

Cyclone "Fani", May 2019

How IMD tracked cyclone 'Fani'

May 5, 2019: The Times of India

From its formation to landfall, how IMD tracked cyclone 'Fani'

NEW DELHI: Thirteen days before cyclone 'Fani' hit the Odisha coast + , the IMD had an indication that the low pressure in the Bay of Bengal and the Equatorial Indian Ocean could balloon into a massive storm and started preparing for the onslaught, the weatherman said.

On April 21, based on data from various sources, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast that conditions were conducive for formation of a low-pressure area in the Equatorial Indian Ocean and south Bay of Bengal. A low-pressure area is the initial stage of the formation of a cyclone.

Armed with data from different institutes of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the meteorologists deliberated on how low pressure could pan out to be.

The IMD and other institutes of the Ministry of Earth Sciences ran data through 10 specialised weather models.

"We realised all the models suggested that it was going to turn into a cyclone. So, from April 25 we started issuing special bulletins," IMD's additional director general (services) Mritunjay Mohapatra told PTI.

Mohapatra, a veteran in tracking cyclones, played a critical role in tracking Fani's progress and accurately predicting its path.

Elaborating on the formation stage of cyclone 'Fani', he said help from other institutes of the MoES played a crucial role in predicting the development of the cyclone.

The National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), Chennai has over 20 buoys in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea that collected data on rainfall, temperatures below the sea and above, wind speed, Mohaptara said.

Different satellites provided data and images on clouds in oceanic area for monitoring low pressure systems, said IMD's Director General K J Ramesh.

Satellite data was also used in running the models.

"There are island observatories that fed us with data," Mohapatra said.

Ramesh said data was processed under different weather models by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida. These two institutes have two supercomputers that process data.

The data was further processed by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad that gave predictions on the extent, depth and duration of the inundations in the low-lying areas due to the cyclone, Ramesh said.

A similar model is run by Indian Institute of Technology Delhi to help the IMD with information on inundation.

The IMD also used its radars at Chennai, Karikal, Machilipatnam, Visakhapatnam, Gopalpur, Paradip, Kolkata, Agartala to the fullest.

"Twelve hours before the landfall, we kept sending updates on locations to concerned states every half hour using our radars, besides releasing hourly bulletins," Ramesh said.

'Fani' intensified into a cyclone on April 27. It became a 'severe cyclonic storm' + on April 29 and into a 'very severe cyclone' on April 30. A day later, it took the from of an 'extremely severe cyclone' and slammed into the Odisha coast on May 3 with a speed gusting to 175 kilometres per hour.

The IMD also earned praised from different quarters of the world for its predictions.

Fani more dangerous than assumed

Ashok Pradhan, May 11, 2019: The Times of India

Devastation caused by Cyclone Fani.
From: Ashok Pradhan, May 11, 2019: The Times of India

Puri: As Cyclone Fani ripped through Puri on May 3, P Chittama found herself locked out of the bathroom that her family was huddled in. The asbestos roof in her house in Penthakata soon gave way to the strong wind and a large piece hit Chittama on the leg. Bloody and barely able to walk, the 40-year-old somehow managed to drag herself to the bathroom which provided safe shelter due to its concrete roof. Hours later, the storm subsided and Chittama was taken to a hospital where doctors told her she was lucky to have escaped with only a fracture. It will, however, take a month for Chittama to be able to walk and much longer than that for her family to rebuild their damaged fishing boat and go back to the sea.

As the accolades the Naveen Patnaik government earned for its timely evacuation of 14 lakh people die down and officials begin taking stock of the devastation, grim realities are emerging. Fortyone people have died and over 1.5 crore have been affected in 14 districts. Large parts of state capital Bhubaneswar and the entire Puri district remain without electricity and the distribution of drinking water and food supplies is erratic, forcing people to resort to attacking and stealing from relief vans in some cases. Five lakh houses and 6,700 hospital buildings have been damaged while 34 lakh livestock have perished. The total loss in financial terms will run into at least Rs 50,000 crore, government estimates suggest.

Experts said that the ecological, financial and infrastructural damage caused by Fani is much larger than anticipated. Sarat Chandra Sahu, former director of Meteorological Centre, Bhubaneswar, said that the widespread destruction, particularly in Bhubaneswar, which was at least 50 km from Puri where the cyclone made landfall, was unexpected. Sahu said that it was high wind speeds of 200 kmph that allowed the cyclone to wreak havoc at this scale. Lake Chilka and Balukhand-Konark wildlife sanctuary, two of Odisha’s ecological hotspots, have been hit hard. According to a government report released on Thursday, Chilka, Asia’s biggest brackish water lake, is likely to become more saline due to increased inflow of sea water. The heightened salinity will adversely affect marine life. In Balukhand-Konark wildlife sanctuary on the Puri-Konark marine drive, millions of trees have been uprooted.

Special relief commissioner (SRC), Odisha, Bishnupada Sethi admitted that it might be several years before the state can get back on its feet. “It might take up to a decade,” said Sethi, adding, “The priority is to get people’s lives back on track. The complete damage assessment will take time as communication is yet to be restored in many parts.”

The government is now struggling with the mammoth task of repairing nearly 80,000 km of low tension power lines and 64,000 damaged distribution transformers. Efforts are on to revive the nerve centres of Odisha -- Cuttack, Puri and Bhubaneswar. Officials said that electricity will be restored in Cuttack and Bhubaneswar by next week but it would take up to a month to restore power supply to the entire Puri district.

The railway station in Bhubaneswar, one of the few areas in the city with electricity, is witnessing an unusual rush. Desperate to connect with the world and get news of loved ones, people are queuing up at the station to charge their cellphones. And because the charging points are limited, many are now bringing extension cords even as they spend nights on the platform to await their turn. It helps that packaged drinking water is also available at the station. Information and public relation secretary Sanjay Singh said that water supply in Puri, Cuttack and Bhubaneswar had been restored. Residents, though, maintain that this is pointless as the water being supplied is undrinkable.

In Puri, countless people have been rendered homeless in villages; food is scarce and ATMs are without money. Odisha DGP Rajendra Prasad Sharma said that police are now escorting relief vans after some people tried to snatch material from a truck in Satyabadi in Puri. On Thursday, only 20 out of 273 ATMs and 60 bank branches out of 239 were functioning in Puri. Bang in poll season, the safety of EVMs has posed another challenge. Police are using diesel-run generators to provide power to a strong room in Puri where EVMs have been kept after people cast their votes on April 23.

For those still coming to terms with the loss of loved ones and their homes, Fani has evoked memories of the super cyclone of 1999.

“Though the deaths were greatly fewer, as far as damage to infrastructure goes, Fani has caused perhaps as much destruction as the super cyclone which had killed over 10,000 people,” said Sanjeeb Guru, an architect.

Region-wise. statistics

Mumbai

Till 2020, a clean record

Vaishnavi Chandrashekhar, Mumbai has never faced a cyclone in recorded history, June 3, 2020: The Times of India

If a cyclone makes landfall in Mumbai, it will be one for the record books. The city has never been hit by one in documented history — even a story about an 1882 Bombay cyclone that was supposed to have killed 100,000 was shown by scientist Adam Sobel to be an urban legend.

The reason for Mumbai’s low risk lies in the weather dynamics of the Arabian Sea. On an average, the sea sees just one or two cyclonic formations every year. When they do form, they tend to go west towards Oman and the Gulf of Aden. Or they head north towards Gujarat.

This typical north/west trajectory springs from a few factors. Easterlies nudge the system away from the northwestern coast, says Sridhar Balasubramanian, professor of mechanical engineering at IIT Bombay.

A pre-monsoon formation of an area of high pressure, known as a sub-tropical ridge, along the western coast also creates a barrier. Even when a strong cyclone forms, it can weaken as it approaches land.

More recently, storm systems, including the current one, have been forming close to Kerala. Because of the friction provided by land, they do not intensify as strongly. Still, a 2015 study from Princeton found a rise in cyclonic activity in the fast-warming Arabian Sea.

Last year saw five of eight Indian Ocean cyclones forming in the Arabian Sea — the most since 1902. For scientist Sobel, even a small risk is worth preparing for. Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean had never turned towards New York — until Hurricane Sandy did in 2012 lashing the city with a six-foot storm surge. A surge could be devastating for a Mumbai already still struggling with a pandemic.