Revision as of 17:14, 7 May 2021

2016: Panchayat elections

The Times of India Jan 08 2016

Subhash Mishra

Lucknow

The ruling Samajwadi Party swept the UP district panchayat chairmen's poll with a tally of 60 seats out of possible 74 after Thursday's voting. The party , which had won 36 out of 38 seats, which had been decided without contest, won 24 more after the voting, striking a blow to BJP, which lost in PM Narendra Modi's constituency Varanasi and state chief Laxmi Kant Bajpeyi's constituency Meerut.

While the only solace for BJP was its victory in five seats in western UP out of its total tally of seven, SP's clean sweep had some blemishes as well as the party-supported candidates lost some seats like Bijnor and Sitapur to rebels.

In Bijnor, suspended SP MLA Ruchi Veera, ensured the victory of her husband against the official candidate.She had been suspended after she refused to withdraw her husband's candidature and for supporting him against the officially nominated candidate.Senior minister Shivpal Yadav, however, shrugged off these minor glitches, claiming that the result was an indicator to the likely trends in the state polls to be held a year later.

2017

The results of the elections to local bodies in UP, 2012 and 2017
From: Subhash Mishra, Saffron sweep in UP civic polls, Cong loses Amethi, December 3, 2017: The Times of India

See graphic:

The results of the elections to local bodies in UP, 2012 and 2017

Seats won and votes polled by the parties

Shankar Raghuraman. In polls for heads of tier-2 UP towns, BJP got 29% of votes, December 4, 2017: The Times of India

Seats won and votes polled by the parties in mayoral and nagarpalika polls in December 2017
From: Shankar Raghuraman. In polls for heads of tier-2 UP towns, BJP got 29% of votes, December 4, 2017: The Times of India

See graphic:

Seats won and votes polled by the parties in mayoral and nagarpalika polls in December 2017

The headlines on the day of the civic poll results in Uttar Pradesh may have suggested a sweep for the ruling BJP, but that’s just the elections for mayors in the state’s biggest cities, where it won 14 of the 16 up for grabs. An analysis of the polls for theheadsof the next tier of cities — the nagar palika parishad presidents — shows that it notonly won just 35% of theseats, it got a mere 28.6% of the votes. Considering it had polled over 42% in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and close to that figure in the 2017 assembly polls, this is not great news for BJP. But its main rivalsin thestatehave little reason to cheer, having performed even worse.

BJP’s vote share in the mayoral contests for the municipal corporations was 41.4%, while the three other major parties — SP, BSP and Congress — were left far behind in the15to18% range (see graphic). In the nagar palika parishad presidents’ polls, however, the saffron party could win only roughly one in three seats or 70 of the 198 in the contest, with independents making major inroads. Its vote share of 28.6% was still comfortably ahead of SP’s 21.7% but the gap was nothing like in the mayoral contests.

A regional analysis of the nagar palika parishad presidents’ contests throws up more pointers to the challenges for BJP in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In two regions that between themselves accounted for 90 of the 98 seats — Central UP and Rohilkhand — SP actually won more seats than BJP and in Central UP even had a higher vote share. Both in 2014 and in the assembly polls, the saffron party had led comfortably in each region of thestate.

The party’s vote share is uniformly lower in every single region ofUP, but the pick-up in the vote share of its rivals is patchy, SP putting up a strong fight in two regions but having sub-20% votesharesin western UP, the northeastern districts and Bundelkhand. BSP seems to have held its own in the southeastern districts and in the west, but yielded the main opposition space to SP in the rest. The Congress’ showing in these lower tiers belies any hopes of revival it might have gotfrom the mayoral polls.

Also worrying for BJP would be the fact that its share of seats– and, wecan besure, of votes– goesdown as thelevelof the contest dips from the biggestcitiestothesmaller onesto the bottom of the urban ladder, the nagar panchayats. In the nagar panchayats, BJPwon only 100 of the 438 presidents’ posts, independents picking up

182. While we have not calculated vote shares for this tier, it is certain that the party’s share wouldbeeven lower than in the nagar palika parishad presidential polls. BJP’s share of seatsin the members of thetwo lower tiers, nagar palika parishad and nagar panchayats, is even less than in the heads of these bodies. Only one in eight elected nagar panchayats members and about one in six nagar palika parishad members isfrom the party.

In the nagar palika parishad presidents’ polls, BJP could win only roughly one in three seats or 70 of the 198 in the contest, with independents making major inroads

Civic bodies: AIMIM marks presence in UP

Deepak Lavania, With 26 seats, AIMIM marks presence in UP civic bodies, December 3, 2017: The Times of India

Winning at least 26 wards in various civic bodies, Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has opened its account in Uttar Pradesh. In Ghaziabad district, the party candidate has been elected chairman of Dasna Nagar Panchayat.

According to the partywise data compiled by the State Election Commission (SEC), AIMIM bagged 12 municipal councillors’ posts, seven nagar palika parishad members’ posts and six nagar panchayat posts.

The party’s mayoral candidate from Firozabad, Mashroor Fatima, was a runner-up. The winning candidate, Nutan Rathore from BJP, got 98,932 votes which equals to 34.99% vote share while Fatima got 56,536 votes, equalling 19.99% vote share. The total voting percentage of Firozabad stood at 56.16%. State president for AIMIM, Shaukat Ali, said the party’s win was a reply to all those who had termed AIMIM as an agent of BJP.

Mayoral seats: BJP won 14/ 16; BSP 2

Subhash Mishra, Saffron sweep in UP civic polls, Cong loses Amethi, December 3, 2017: The Times of India

Support for BJP in urban areas, which helped the party score a landslide win in the UP state polls earlier this year, appears to have

survived the grouses arising over the implementation of GST, with the party sweeping 14 out of 16 mayoral seats in the state on Friday.

BSP showed signs of a comeback by snatching two seats from BJP, while SP and Congress failed to open their account. Congress lost badly in Amethi, Rahul Gandhi’s Lok Sabha seat.BJP won three newly created corporations — Ayodhya-Faizabad, Mathura-Vrindavan and Saharanpur — and also in Muslim-dominated cities: Moradabad, Bareilly and Firozabad.

BSP show queers pitch for Cong, SP

BJP also won in Agra, frequently referred to as the “Dalit capital” because of the big concentration of Dalits it boasts of.

The resounding victory at the expense of Congress and other rivals comes on the eve of Gujarat polls and should act as a morale-booster for BJP.PM Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah hailed the ‘thumbs-up’ from the UP electorate, the third consecutive one since its massive victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

The reaffirmation in the urban centres, almost all of them with sizeable presence of traders, should also reassure the party which is having to deal with Congress’s attempt to stoke the grouses against GST.

It marks a personal triumph for chief minister Aditya Nath Yogi, who led the party’s campaign by addressing 34 rallies within 15 days.

His rise perhaps brings to an end BJP’s long search post-Kalyan Singh for a leader with an appeal covering the sprawling state, who can hold his own against powerful satraps like Mayawati.

The results suggest a revival of sorts for BSP, especially in western UP where electoral collaboration between Dalits — core constituents — and Muslims prevailed against BJP in Aligarh and Meerut and can politically resuscitate party supremo Mayawati who appeared to be facing an existential crisis.

But by underlining its potential as a possible BJP-beater, BSP has created complications also for SP and Congress, especially considering the trend among Muslims to switch their support to whoever is in the best position to defeat the Hindutva outfit.

While for Congress, the rout only adds to the string of humiliations, SP is under spotlight for failing to open its account . SP has been defeated in its strongholds by BJP, say analysts. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is already facing criticism for not campaigning and for what is seen as a “casual” approach to politics. In contrast, BJP contested the polls by deploying its well-oiled campaign machinery and even roping in Union ministers.

BJP retains Gorakhpur, but loses CM’s ward

Shailvee Sharda, December 3, 2017: The Times of India

BJP registered its third consecutive victory in the Gorakhpur mayoral election but lost in the ward where UP chief minister Aditya Nath Yogi is a voter. Gorakhnath temple is also situated in ward number 68 — Purana Gorakhpur.

Independent candidate Nadira Khatoon defeated the BJP candidate and displaced the party which had won the seat twice. While Nadira polled 1,782 votes, BJP’s Maya Tripathi got 462 votes. Crediting Yogi for her victory, Nadira said: “Baba (Yogi) is behind my success. He is my neighbour and he made me win.” BJP’s mayoral candidate Sita Ram Jaiswal defeated his nearest rival, Rahul Gupta of SP, by a margin of 75,823 votes.

BSP won in Aligarh, Meerut

UP civic polls: How Mayawati's BSP wrested 2 mayoral seats from BJP, December 5, 2017: The Times of India

HIGHLIGHTS

BSP registered twin success in Meerut and Aligarh, wresting both seats from the BJP

The meat lobby, party insiders said, mobilised the Muslim community to vote en masse for BSP candidates to ensure BJP defeat

Mayawati not only retained her core Dalit vote bank but also managed to get back those who had shifted their loyalties to the BJP

The BSP's gamble of contesting the UP civic polls on party symbol for the first time in 22 years appears to have paid off with the party performing unexpectedly well in urban areas by winning two mayoral posts. Urban areas in UP are not the traditional stronghold of the Mayawati-led party.

"The party is upbeat with the results that have come as a shot in the arm for cadres who have been struggling since the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 assembly polls," a senior party leader said.

"This was the logic behind the party deciding to go into the urban body elections on party symbol as the leadership felt that there is a need to work with renewed vigour and missionary zeal through a new strategy to deal with fresh challenges after electoral contests in which the party did not fare well," he said.

Though the BJP is a clear winner, bagging 14 of the 16 mayoral posts, the BSP registered twin success in Meerut and Aligarh, wresting both seats from the BJP. Besides, the BSP candidates also performed well in Jhansi, Agra and Saharanpur losing the last seat by a margin of just 2,000 votes, he said.

Both the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, however, failed to open their account in the elections for the mayoral posts. Unlike the BJP, which had put in all its resources and leaders spearheaded by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanth, the BSP had reposed its faith on its state-level leaders, including state unit president Ram Achal Rajbhar, among others for campaigning.

Behind the BJP's massive win was the strong army of the saffron party and R-S-S cadres, over 300 UP MLAs and ministers working full time to reach out to voters. Adityanath himself criss-crossed the state to campaign for civic elections, something unusual for a chief minister to do.

Apparently, this was also the first time when the ruling party released a full-fledged manifesto for a local body election and the head of the government himself campaigned on a war footing for civic bodies which have traditionally remained the strong hunting ground for the BJP, he stressed.

The BSP, in contrast, made little noise with its national president not only staying away from campaigning, but also busy in other states. Despite not being a party in active campaign, she had been busy in formulating a strategy and overseeing the campaigning, he said. Party insiders feel that what worked in favour of the party was the Dalit-Muslim combination.

The party supremo will further consolidate it along with the backwards for the next electoral contest in 2019 for Lok Sabha, though the party is likely to keep its options of striking a respectful alliance open.

"These elections also prove that the BSP is still among the foremost choices of the electorate despite the propaganda of the saffron party projecting itself as the only party which could take the state and country ahead," he said.

After successive poll debacles, Mayawati had decided that though BSP's base is not as strong in urban areas (as in rural areas), a decision has been taken in view of the growth in people's support in urban areas as well.

The BSP has not fought the urban body polls on party ticket since 1995.

This time, on demands from its leaders, a decision was taken to contest on party symbol.

Apart from this, the ban on illegal slaughterhouses by the BJP government might have caused the saffron party's defeat in Meerut and Aligarh mayoral elections.

The meat lobby, party insiders said, mobilised the Muslim community to vote en masse for BSP candidates to ensure BJP defeat. Despite BSP chief Mayawati not campaigning and not even casting her vote, dalits in general and Jatavs in particular stood with the BSP and this made the choice easy for Muslims.

At the same time, this tactical move has become a worrying sign for the Samajwadi Party as the minority community has remained loyal to it for long but this time voted for the BSP in Meerut, Aligarh and Saharanpur where BSP candidate was the runner-up.

Political observers said the meat trader lobby has a strong influence in Meerut.

A BJP insider said leaders like Yaqoub Qureshi, whose family is in slaughterhouse business, gets his support mainly from Muslims who are involved in the trade. Muslims have been crying foul since the Adityanath government banned illegal slaughterhouses with some even claiming to have lost their livelihood.

There are approximately 1.10 lakh members from the Qureshi and the Ansari communities in Meerut.

In Sunita Verma they found a strong candidate as the BSP with Dalit support became an easy pick for the minority community. Even in Aligarh, which has eight slaughterhouses, the community voted for BSP's Mohd Furqan to defeat BJP's Rajeev Agrawal.

Qureshis and Ansaris, who are mostly in slaughterhouse trade, have a population of around 40,000 and in total, Aligarh has around 1.25 lakh Muslims.

There were other reasons too in Aligarh.

Party insiders said giving ticket to Rajeev Agrawal forced Varshneys to switch loyalty since, traditionally and politically, both communities have been against each other.

Varshneys have remained loyal to the BJP for years and even when former chief minister Kalyan Singh lost from Atrauli, Krishna Kumar Noman, a Varshney, won Aligarh because of them.

Party insiders said that losing Aligarh is a bigger shock and worrying sign for the BJP than losing Meerut.

After a dismal performance in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and then in UP assembly elections, the Mayawati-led BSP sprung a surprise by winning two out of the 16 mayoral seats. BSP candidates Sunita Verma and Mohammad Furkan won from Meerut and Aligarh respectively.

Almost half of BJP candidates lost deposits

Pankaj Shah & Shankar Raghuraman, Almost half of BJP candidates in UP civic polls lost their deposits, December 6, 2017: The Times of India

Seats won, deposit lost, vota share, party-wise, post-wise, 2017-Uttar Pradesh, local bodies election
From: Pankaj Shah & Shankar Raghuraman, Almost half of BJP candidates in UP civic polls lost their deposits, December 6, 2017: The Times of India

Contrary to the perception of a landslide win for BJP in the UP civic elections, the number of seats in which the party lost its deposit (3,656) was significantly higher than the number of seats it won (2,366). That means about 45% of all the candidates it put up in the elections failed to secure their deposit. The numbers were even worse in the case of the other major parties.

An analysis of the data from the three-tiered urban bodies poll also shows that BJP’s vote share across all the posts up for grabs in the polls was 30.8%, with its share in the contests for members of nagar panchayats — the lowest of the three tiers — a mere 11.1%.

BJP had put up more candidates than any other party in these polls by contesting 8,038 of the 12,644 seats for which results were announced. It ended up with almost half of them losing their deposits. Indeed, at the nagar panchayat member level, while 664 of its candidates won, more than twice as many, 1,462 to be precise, lost their deposits (see graphic).

The proportion of candidates who lost deposits was even higher for SP, BSP and Congress at 54%, 66% and 75% respectively. But then nobody has suggested that any of these parties has scored a famous victory.

One reason for the surprisingly low vote share of the BJP in the polls for nagar palika parishad members and nagar panchayat members is certainly that the party contested only about twothirds of the seats in the nagar palika parishads and a little over half in nagar panchayats. Even so, the 16% and 11% shares achieved would worry the party.

Comparisons with the 2012 elections for these urban bodies are rendered meaningless by the fact that neither SP nor BSP contested the polls. The polls were thus reduced to contests between BJP, Congress, minor parties and independents supported by the major ones. But in the 2006 polls, for instance, he SP had contest less than 40% of nagar panchayat members seats and garnered 13% of the vote.

Incidentally, even in the mayoral contests in 16 big cities, the 41% vote share garnered by the BJP represents a significant come down from the levels of about 48.5% recorded in these Lok Sabha constituencies in 2014. But given the fact that smaller parties and independents become more relevant in a local election than in parliamentary polls that would be not much of a worry for the BJP. The much reduced vote shares in the smaller towns and cities would be.

Municipal Corpn, Ghaziabad: BJP won 58/ 100 wards

Ayaskant Das, BJP wins Gzb corporation, rivals steal rural show, December 3, 2017: The Times of India

Fresh from a thumping victory in the assembly election, BJP won the Ghaziabad Municipal Corporation polls by taking 58 of the 100 wards in the municipal corporation on Friday. The mayoral post in Ghaziabad Nagar Nigam was also bagged by BJP’s Asha Sharma, who garnered 49.86% of the total votes polled.

Asha (58), a two-time councillor, defeated her nearest rival, Dolly Sharma of Congress, by a margin of 1.63 lakh votes. Congress came second, bagging 14 seats in the corporation. Mayawati’s BSP, which contested the urban local body polls in UP for the first time on its symbol, won 13 councillor wards while its regional rival, Samajwadi Party, managed to get just five seats. AAP, which contested the urban local body polls in the state for the first time, failed to open its account in Ghaziabad.

The mayoral post in Ghaziabad, which was reserved for women in 2017, went to the BJP for the fifth time in a row. Ghaziabad BJP leader Ashu Verma was the mayor during the previous term, having won the post in a byelection held in February 2016, following the demise of Teluram Kamboj who also belonged to the same party. The results showed up a big urban-rural divide in the way votes were cast. While BJP dominated the urban wards, it failed to win the chairperson’s post in any of the four nagar panchayats in Ghaziabad.

Nagar panchayats: 71% of elected members are Independents

Sandeep Rai & Anuja Jaiswal, 71% of elected UP nagar panchayat members are Independents, December 2, 2017: The Times of India

The BJP may have won 14 of 16 mayoral seats in Uttar Pradesh, but in the nagar palika and nagar panchayat polls, the second and third tiers of local governance, it was Independents’ show all the way, leaving the saffron party with a smaller percentage of seats.

In these two bodies, the BJP has managed just 17% and 12% of seats respectively. The Independents, meanwhile, have continued their stellar performance — in 2012, too, they had performed well — bagging 64% and 71% seats. According to data provided by UP state election commission on its website, 71.31% of the newly elected nagar panchayat members are independent candidates; for BJP it is 12.22%.

In sheer numbers, there are 3,875 Independent nagar panchayat members in UP, of which BJP has 664. Similarly, 64.25% of nagar palika members are independent candidates, translating into 3,380 members. The saffron party has secured 17.53% of the seats, with 922 members elected.

While EVMs were used in the municipal corporation polls for mayors, the nagar panchayat and palika polls used ballot papers, triggering a fresh row in Uttar Pradesh, with both Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party and Mayawati of the BSP crying foul.

The two former chief ministers of the state on Saturday raised doubts over the election results. While Mayawati said “the BJP will lose the 2019 Lok Sabha polls if ballot papers are used”, Akhilesh tweeted: “BJP has only won 15% seats in ballot paper areas and 46% in EVM areas.”

2021

Panchayat elections

Early results

PankajShah , May 5, 2021: The Times of India

The Samajwadi Party is surging ahead in the UP panchayat polls, considered the bellwether of the high-stakes assembly polls next year, with counting trends indicating that SPsupported candidates are frontrunners in 747 zila panchayat wards, while BJPbacked nominees are leading in, or have won, 666 seats.

This has led to BJP scrambling to open back-channel negotiations with Independents who have won or are leading in 3,050 zila panchayat wards to seize control over the top tier of rural local bodies. Top sources in BJP said, the party is trying to reach out to 1,238 Independent candidates to wrest maximum posts of zila panchayat chairpersons, which would be held through indirect election.

BSP and Congress supported candidates were leading in 322 and 77 wards, respectively.

The BJP in Ayodhya, Mathura

BJP manages only 8 of 40 seats in Ayodhya, 8 of 33 in Mathura

BJP faced embarrassment in the Hindutva nervecentres of Ayodhya and Mathura, where opposition-backed candidates surged ahead in the panchayat poll tally as counting picked up pace on Tuesday. Ayodhya delivered the biggest jolt to BJP, where it could muster wins in only eight of 40 zila panchayat wards, with SP bagging 24 seats, BSP four, and Independents six. In Mathura, BJP won eight of 33 zila panchayat seats, while BSP emerged the biggest gainer with 13. In Varanasi, both BJP and SP claimed to have won 16 seats each of the 40 zila panchayat wards, but local sources placed the BJP tally lower.

BJP wins 20 seats on Yogi turf, SP 18

May 5, 2021: The Times of India

Even as BJP faced significant losses in religious nerve centres of Varanasi, Ayodhya and Mathura in the recent UP panchayat polls, its saving grace was Gorakhpur, the home turf of UP CM Yogi Adityanath, where it was ahead of other parties, albeit by a whisker.

BJP won 20 zila panchayat seats, which was the highest among all major political parties. SP won 18 while BSP bagged four seats, reports Pankaj Shah. “It is because of the aashirwad (blessings) of Maharajji (CM Yogi) the opposition could not breach Gorakhpur the way it intended to,” BJP’s Gorakhpur region secretary Janardan Tewari said.

In Prayagraj, SP victorious in 23 seats, BJP restricted to 13

Tewari said BJP had been aiming for at least 35 out of the 68 seats. The district was the epicenter of political contest between BJP and the opposition after Yogi Adityanath vacated the Gorakhpur parliamentary seat to take the reins of UP as its CM. In 2018 by elections, arch rivals SP and BSP cobbled up an alliance to defeat the BJP in Yogi’s bastion. The opposition’s joint candidate, Praveen Nishad, later switched over to BJP and, in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, won from Sant Kabir Nagar. The Gorakhpur seat was won by Bhojpuri actor-turned-politician Ravi Kishan on BJP ticket in 2019.

The situation was not good for BJP in Prayagraj where SP won on 23 seats, while BJP was restricted to 13 seats. This district was another political hotbed for BJP after its MP Keshav Prasad Maurya vacated the Phulpur seat (which came under then Allahabad district) in 2017 to take charge as UP’s deputy CM. In the ensuing by elections in 2018, SP’s Nagendra Patel defeated BJP’s Kaushalendra Patel by around 60,000 votes. The seat was wrested back by BJP’s Keshari Patel in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The trends, nevertheless, showed that SP managed to save its pocket boroughs of Etawah, Mainpuri and Kannauj which were keenly eyed by the BJP.

AAP wins 83 seats

May 5, 2021: The Times of India

Aam Aadmi Party’s Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh on Wednesday said that the party has received “humongous support” from the people of Uttar Pradesh in the panchayat polls and won 83 zila panchayat seats, around 300 village pradhan seats, 232 block development committee seats. He said around 40 lakh voters have voted for AAP.

In a press conference, Singh said people of UP have accepted the Kejriwal model of governance — quality education, healthcare, free water and free electricity — and voted for the party.

“The result is a clear indicator that there is a feeling of utter disappointment among people for the Yogi government and they completely rejected BJP in the panchayat elections,” said Singh, adding that the results are also a reflection of poor Covid management by the UP government.

“The outcome of the panchayat elections has also proved that during the pandemic, the UP government did not arrange for oxygen beds, did not make arrangements for testing and even to cremate bodies,” Singh said. He claimed that people have clarified that they don’t want politics of hate, they need hospitals, schools and free electricity in UP.

AAP has expressed gratitude towards the people of UP. Singh announced that soon AAP will start auto-ambulance services in Lucknow and other districts to help people during the pandemic. TNN