Elections in India: behaviour and trends (2014)
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Election results 2014: BJP landslide shatters four electoral myths
Milan Vaishnav
The Times of India| May 17, 2014
The 2014 elections have only just ended but analysts are already struggling to comprehend how the BJP's stunning electoral success, deemed unlikely just one year ago, came to pass. The results of India's sixteenth general election challenge our common understanding of contemporary Indian electoral politics in at least four ways.
BJP can't go beyond its traditional strongholds
First, the conventional wisdom was that the BJP was trapped by its traditional political and geographic boundaries, deemed insurmountable thanks to the party's Hindutva agenda. Yet, the BJP has garnered an estimated one-third of the all-India vote, a massive improvement from 19% in 2009 and its all-time best of 26% in 1998. This improvement was driven by sizeable vote swings in critical Hindi heartland states as well as smaller but significant gains in the South and East, neither an area of traditional strength. These gains were possible thanks to Modi's persistent focus — in the national theatre of politics — on development and economic mobility. This message aligned perfectly with the issues vexing most Indian voters; a post-poll conducted by CSDS found that in every state surveyed, voters identified development, inflation or corruption as their most important election issue. To be clear, the BJP's saffron agenda has not vanished; recent campaign rhetoric and the party's manifesto confirm this. Yet, going forward, deviation from the focus on governance and development could imperil these newfound gains.
It can't stitch up alliances better than Congres
A second assumption that was upturned in this election was that Congres, not the BJP, had the advantage in alliance formation. Despite all the talk about its off-key "India Shining" mantra sinking the BJP in 2004, their loss was more about the BJP's inability to forge the right alliances. This fed doubts about whether the BJP could construct effective alliances in 2014, especially with Modi at the helm. Yet it was a Modi-led BJP that struck key deals over the past several months while the Congres, in contrast, was viewed as a sinking ship. Many observers dismissed the BJP's alliance with the Lok Jan Shakti Party in Bihar, the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, and the Haryana Janhit Congres as trivial. But such criticism overlooked the importance of small shifts in vote share in a fragmented, first-past-the-post electoral system.
Support for regional parties is growing
A third assumption underpinning Indian elections since 1989 has been the growth of regional parties. Between 1996 and 2009, the non-Congres, non-BJP share of the vote has hovered around 50%, rising to a record 53% in 2009. The 2014 election, though, saw a decline in regional party support; their nation-wide vote share dipped to roughly 47%, reversing the prevailing trend. Two players merit special attention here. The first is the evisceration of the BSP. Mayawati may draw a blank in Uttar Pradesh while the hard-fought inroads she made in other Hindi heartland states simply evaporated. The second is the weakening of the Left. At a time of rising inequality and concerns over crony capitalism, the conditions would seem propitious for a Leftist revival; instead we are witnessing their collapse.
Lok Sabha polls are a sum of state verdicts
A fourth assumption has been that national elections are best understood as an aggregation of state verdicts. The 2014 election outcome, however, is a partial reversal of "derivative" national elections. Not only was this election marked by presidential overtones, but the animating issues—namely, the slumping economy—have also been pan-Indian. Despite this apparent shift, there are two caveats to the "nationalization" thesis.
First, states still remain the most important tier of government for ordinary Indians. This is reflected in the fact that, notwithstanding the record voter turnout in these Lok Sabha polls, turnout for state elections is still 4.5% higher, on average, in any given state. Second, much of the south remained resistant to the BJP's charms. Although the BJP picked up new seats in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, its advances were limited and much smaller than in the north.
(The writer is an associate with the South Asia programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC)
2014: the success rate of defectors
Election results 2014: High success rate of turncoats who joined BJP
NEW DELHI: The 2014 Lok Sabha elections witnessed several political leaders defecting from one party to another, with only some of them who joined the BJP tasted electoral success.
Among the big defectors who could grab a seat in the 16th Lok Sabha include Rao Indrajit Singh, Om Prakash Yadav, Sushil Kumar Singh, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, Jagdambika Pal, Dharamvir Singh, Ajay Nishad, Santosh Kumar, Mehboob Ali Kaiser, Ashok Kumar Dohare, Vidyut Baran Mahato, Col Sonaram Choudhary, Ram Kripal Yadav, and Heena Gavit.
Despite a change in allegiance, several leaders who could not record a win this time around include Amar Singh, Jaya Prada, Hemlal Murmu, Puranmasi Ram, Putul Kumari among others.
In Uttar Pradesh, which is considered crucial for any political party's prospects in the Lok Sabha elections, as many as 19 defectors joined BJP, while Mulayam Singh inducted 15 defectors into the Samajwadi Party.
Seven defectors each joined the Congres and Bahujan Samaj Party in UP. Ajit Singh also inducted three leaders into his Rashtriya Lok Dal ahead of the elections.
However, most of the defectors who joined SP, BSP or RLD could open their accounts in the Lok Sabha results for which were declared on May 16.
Both defectors Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh and Jagdambika Pal clinched two parliamentary seats for the BJP in UP.
On the other hand, Amar Singh and Jaya Prada failed to open the account for RLD, which did not get a single seat in the Lok Sabha.
In Bihar, ruling JD(U) fought on 38 of 40 parliamentary seats out of which had 13 defectors, of which only Santosh Kumar Purniya who defected from BJP could win a seat.
BJP had allowed seats to nine outside candidates on the 30 seats it contested from Bihar, of which five registered a win.
RJD gave a chance to four outsiders to contest out of 27 seats while Congres which contested on 12 seats allowed only two outside candidates.
