Monsoons: India

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Monsoons: India

Monsoon going strong, hopes soar

Rains Set To Cross 100% Of Long-Period Average, Record Rice Output Likely

Neha Lalchandani TNN

The Times of India 2013/08/02

A bountiful monsoon normally benefit the kharif crop and augurs good rice production with the area under sowing touching 196 lakh hectares in 2013, a 16 lakh hectare increase over 2012.

Monsoons that crossed the 100% mark

Since 1901, there have been 59 years when the monsoon has crossed 100% of the LPA. Since 2000, there have been only four years when monsoon crossed the 100% mark. These are 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2011. The projection is welcome news for the government as a stuttering monsoon can cast a long shadow on its political fortunes with growth slipping below 5% and high food inflation — prices for consumers rose 11.84% in June — proving a sizeable thorn in the side for UPA-2.

The government hopes the farm sector significantly improves on 2012’s 1.8% growth with R Rangarajan, chairman of the PM’s economic advisory council, saying a normal monsoon could even yield a 3.4% growth.

2013: Country sees wettest June-July in 19 yrs

The June- July 2013 rainfall, which has been 117 % of the long period average [LPA] is the highest the country has seen since 1994. The last time there was more rain during this two-month period was in 1994, when the monsoon was 123% of the average. The 528.1mm rain bounty that the country got in the first half of the monsoon season is the third highest in 50 years. The wettest June-July spell during this period was in 1994 (564.7mm) while the second wettest was 1964 (538.1mm). Another interesting feature of this year’s rains has been the absence of a break in the monsoon ever since it covered the entire country in June 16.

Monsoon break

A monsoon break — a period when rain activity comes to a stop in most of central India, the region where the monsoon trough is formed — is a common occurrence during the season. “The monsoon has been active without a break since mid-June. This does not happen often and is a reason why the rains were higher than the predicted 101% of LPA for July,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster. (By Amit Bhattacharya)