Karnataka: Assembly elections, 2023
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The results, in brief
The results
ManuAiyappa Kanathanda, May 14, 2023: The Times of India
Bengaluru : Building on a strong anti-incumbency mood created in part by voter concerns on prices and graft, Congress comfortably swept past the majority mark of 113 in the Karnataka assembly elections, winning 135 seats. Its victory left in its wake a chastened BJP — which had turned itself into a one-trick pony, relying almost entirely on PM Narendra Modi’s popularity and charisma to win — with a modest score of 66. Congress’s strong showing has left the third player in the state’s politics, the Deve Gowda family’s JD(S), staring at political irrelevance, and can potentially turn the state into abipolar polity in 2024 when LS elections are scheduled.
In returning Congress to office at a time when it faces a crisis, Karnataka has lived up to its pattern of coming to the party’s rescue at critical junctures. It helped Indira Gandhi return to LS through a win in the Chikmagalur by-election in 1978. In 1999, when the party had lost two consecutive LS elections, Sonia Gandhi chose Bellary, besides Amethi, to make her electoral debut. In 1977,the state stood by the party when it was rejected in the north over Emergency excesses. In 1978, its win in the assembly polls launched a successful campaign for a comeback at the Centre.
The outcome is no less important a lifeline. It will reassure Congress that it remains a viable option, burnish Rahul Gandhi’s credentials as a challenger to Modi, and help it neutralise the efforts of regional satraps to muscle in on its space.
The results in a graphic
From: May 14, 2023: The Times of India
See graphic:
The results of the Karnataka assembly elections, 2023
Community- wise voting
From: May 14, 2023: The Times of India
See graphic:
How various communities are thought to have voted in the Karnataka assembly elections, 2023
Prominent winners and losers
May 14, 2023: The Times of India
SIDDARAMAIAH
He is a big, clear winner. Despite being Congress’s most acceptable face, he had to contend with opposition from arch in-house rival D K Shivakumar and the central leadership’s reluctance to project him as CM candidate. The victory is his vindication. He symbolises the rainbow coalition that powered Congress in the state. A second term would be just reward for the septuagenarian who had crossed over from Janata Dal but became Congress’s most influential leader.
DK SHIVAKUMAR
His tenacity paid off. Undaunted by court cases, the high command’s doubts about him and the rivalry with Siddaramaiah, he campaigned hard. His leadership of the state unit is acknowledged as a major contributory factor. How he responds if Siddaramaiah is picked as CM could be the next big political show in Karnataka. Given his ambition and his resources, his actions could have a big impact on Congress’s post-victory trajectory.
MALLIKARJUN KHARGE
He may not have been seen as Karnataka Congress’s main protagonist but his elevation as the party’s president appears to have been a factor in swaying a section of Dalits. The big victory in his home state will certainly enhance his standing in the party nationally. That in turn will give him heft while leading negotiations with anti-BJP parties in the run-up to 2024.
RAHUL GANDHI
His involvement in the campaign may have been modest but he laid the foundation for the win with his 21-day Karnataka leg of Bharat Jodo Yatra. His aggressive pitch during the campaign helped energise the cadre. The success in Karnataka will help him prepare better for the ensuing headto-head state battles with BJP. It will also make him politically stronger vis-à-vis non-Congress opposition satraps eager to question Congress’s role as the opposition’s leading party in 2024.
PRIYANKA GANDHI
Pitched as a star campaigner, she effectively complemented brother Rahul. The victory will help erase memories of disastrous campaigns in UP and elsewhere, and likely see her being drafted for more such responsibilities. With Rahul and Priyanka both strengthened politically, Congress’s ‘first family’ will act more decisively in settling party matters.
NARENDRA MODI
He was up against the state’s history of voting out incumbents. But not one to give up without putting up a fight, he threw everything into a battle that most would have preferred not to join for fear of blotting their record. He’d helped pull off patterndefying feats in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Assam and Uttarakhand, but this time his personal popularity was not enough to pull the party’s chestnuts out of the fire.
AMIT SHAH
Another indefatigable saffron warrior. The co-architect of BJP’s victory last time, Shah knew that given the state’s revolving-door tradition, the odds were stacked against theparty. But he decided to lead from the front, even though he is not the party chief. His statements predicting a big victory will be difficult to live down. Although he has ended up on the losing side, the setback, going by past experience, will not keep him down for long.
BL SANTHOSH
The powerful BJP general secretary got caught in a contradiction – he wanted to turn the party into an ideologically cohesive outfit but he also had to make compromises for electoral success. His inability to shake off the perception of being partisan, rather than a fair arbiter and taking everyone along, contributed to the debacle.
BS YEDIYURAPPA
A win would have been the high point in the career of the Lingayat strongman who has been instrumental in BJP’s rise in Karnataka. He had proved his indispensability to the party by ensuring its defeat in 2013 and by facilitating its win in 2018. He will, however, remain critical to BJP in 2024, and for the career of his son.
BY VIJAYENDRA
The outcome rained on what would have been a perfect launch party for BSY’s son. The election marked the central leadership’s acquiescing to his and BSY’s claim that he is his father’s rightful legatee and the party’s chief Lingayat face. His victory in Shikaripura cannot compensate for the party’s loss, but it might prove to be the launch pad for the young and ambitious politician whose skills and resourcefulness are universally acknowledged.
BASAVARAJ BOMMAI
Karnataka’s CM finally ran out of luck. His selection as Yediyurappa’s successor had surprised many – and was reinforced when the party decided to stick with him, contrary to the assessment that he may not last the rest of the BJP govt’s tenure, which turned out to be lacklustre and drew charges of corruption. Moreover, the party – under pressure to project a Lingayat face as the next CM – even dropped hints that he would not be replaced, at least not immediately, if BJP got another term. Voters, however, had another script for the mild-mannered politician.
HD KUMARASWAMY
He stands revealed as a diminished political force in the state where his party constituted the third pole till not long ago. A clear victory for Congress robbed him of the opportunity to play kingmaker and extract a grand bargain by maximising modest numbers. His son’s loss and his own narrow win are pointers to troubles ahead. With the hold over fellow Vokkaligas prised open, his flock will be vulnerable to poaching bids from the BJP and Congress.
HD DEVE GOWDA
Though he staved off predictions of irrelevance, his hectic campaign at the ripe old age of 90 did not result in the warm send-off he would have felt entitled to. One more sign that his devotion to his family is not shared by those who once doted on him. That nobody has picked up the mantle will contribute to an embittered retirement.
Key takeaways
May 14, 2023: The Times of India
1 Big Boost For Cong & Rahul At A Critical Time: Will motivate cadre ahead of battles with BJP in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Control of a resource-rich state is a boost for the party whose claim to lead anti-BJP effort has been consolidated. Rahul may be played up as alternative to Modi in 2024 polls
2 Engine Failure: BJP’s debacle has exposed limits of appeal of its ‘double-engine’ plank, bringing home the fact that for it to succeed both ‘engines’ need to work
3 Muslim Consolidation: The community rallied behind Congress, which with tactical finesse ensured there was no rival mobilisation at the other end of the spectrum. In contrast, the PM’s effort to rally the majority community against Cong’s promise to ban Bajrang Dal did not work. The strong Muslim support is a positive development for Cong from the Lok Sabha polls point of view 4 Push For Hindu Consolidation: Cong’s success will encourage counter-moves for Hindu consolidation. Pressure for conducting castebased census will increase. BJP may have to take a fresh look at its own playbook, with a section sure to argue against halfway houses that result in consolidation of Muslims without ensuring similar joining of ranks at the other end
5 Blow To Third Front? Their postresult remarks may not suggest so, but some of the opposition players may not exactly be celebrating Cong’s emphatic win. They will find it difficult to dislodge its claim to lead the anti-BJP bloc in 2024
6 Inflation: Costly LPG cylinders hurt BJP by enhancing appeal of Cong’s 5 guarantees. It was also a factor why BJP’s hopes of gains among beneficiaries of central welfare schemes did not materialise. Although the Modi govt has handled the price situation postUkraine conflict well, it will need to be more alert ahead of the coming elections. Karnataka shows that when fused with anti-incumbency, it can acquire lethal proportions
7 Populist Promises: The defeat may lead BJP to consider fresh counter-measures in response tofreebies unleashed by rivals. If anything, the promises may have more appeal in states not as rich as Karnataka. The LS campaign is sure to see the tussle between handouts and the promise of long-term development intensifying, with Cong and others seeking to use the opposition to ‘revdis’ to amplify their charge of ‘crony capitalism’
8 Over-Centralisation? It was seen as BJP’s strength, but these elections serve up a reminder that it can turn into a weakness. The ‘centralisation’ of BJP helped overcome weaknesses like lack of ambition, factional feuds, and often an unwillingness to match the aggression of rivals. But the Karnataka loss is sure to generate debate over whether it has also resulted in import of the ‘Congress system’ and its deficiencies: enfeeblement of state leaders, loss of local initiative, absence of honest feedback, and vulnerability to the charge of domination by outsiders. It also leaves the party overdependent on the PM
See also
Karnataka: Assembly elections, 2018
Karnataka: Assembly elections, 2023
Karnataka: caste, mutts and elections
