Gujarat: Political history (1945- )
This is a collection of articles archived for the excellence of their content. |
Agitations
The Times of India, Aug 30 2015
Protests by the privileged? Gujarat has a long history
Economics is the common thread that runs through agitations in the state over the last 75 years, finds Amrita Shah Gujarat has a vivid recent history of large, anarchic agitations. Observers are often surprised to hear this, pointing to the state's association with Gandhi and its reputation as a highly developed region with a strong entrepreneurial drive as reasons why this should not be so. Those familiar with the state's peculiarities, however, suggest that Gujarat's relationship with violence in fact stems from these particular characteristics rather than existing despite them. It has been proposed, for instance, that Gandhi's legacy of agitation has contributed to present-day violence in the state. Historian Howard Spodek describes the “two parallel springs of mobilization and institutionalization“ which he believes Gandhi successfully controlled, and speculates that the future could go either way: that new organizations could succeed Gandhi to restore a balance or that the local and the national arena could decline becoming accustomed to deepening levels of violence.
Those who expect a pragmatic, business minded society to be above turbulence are similarly mistaken because economics, far from quelling, has invariably been a key motivating feature for mass violence in the state. A survey of prominent agitations over the last 75 years suggests a common thread.The vigorous participation of Gujaratis in the Quit India movement of 1942, for instance, while it owed much to the intense nationalistic fervor prevailing at the time, was also partly enabled by fears that the British, following a scorched earth policy would destroy local mills to prevent them from falling into the hands of their World War II rivals, the Japanese.
The movement for a separate state in the 1950s was waged on the rhetoric of language and regional pride but was also underpinned by a feeling of neglect by successive Congress ministries. According to Achyut Yagnik and Suchitra Sheth's The Shaping of Modern Gujarat, the absence of any major project on the area's rivers in the First Five Year Plan coupled with the perception that resources were being diverted to Marathispeaking areas culminated in the Mahagujarat movement.
In 1974 rising mess bills in an engineering college in Ahmedabad sparked outrage among students, snowballing into a statewide stir known as the Navnirman movement, an agitation in which even housewives joined in by beating thalis at a prearranged hour. Anxiety over shrinking job opportunities due to the expansion of caste-based reservations led to ugly riots in 1981 and in 1985.
These iconic mass agitations have not involved the poor and the working class but have been led by members of the upper and middle castes and classes, with students playing a pivotal role. In the 1985 anti-reservation riots even children, encouraged by their parents, boycotted school.
Middle class leadership brought a managerial flair to mass agitations often marked by a high level of organization, a clever use of communication technology and marketing gimmicks.This is not the place to explore the links between an emerging middle class solidarity and the growing popularity of the Hindutva movement but it can be said that mass agitations tended to articulate the grievances of and sought to expand economic opportunities for those in the middle and upper reaches of society , sometimes resisting the advancement of those below. For instance, the 1981 and 1985 anti-reservation riots (a precursor one could say to the current fracas) saw attacks by assertive Patels selectively on upwardly mobile sections of the lower castes.
Mass agitations have also enabled dominant groups to bypass inconvenient politics. The unseating of chief minister Chimanbhai Patel in 1974 provided an early taste of power. Madhavsinh Solanki, a backward caste chief minister who won a resounding majority a decade later with a formula that united underprivileged sections of society including Harijans, Adivasis and Muslims, was forced out of office within months by massive protracted violence.
The latter's history of truculence is surprising more so in light of political scientist Nikita Sud's claim that Gujarat's development trajectory , which ensured the rise of agrarian capitalists and rapid urbanization after 1960, has been skewed in favour of dominant castes and classes as has the contemporary economic liberalization process.
In many ways then, the current agitation by the influential Patel community is in keeping with the state's past experience of violent protest by the privileged. But while the agitation may have its origins in the local, and Gujarat-based observers have provided various cogent explanations for the sudden discontent, there is something about the scale and deliberate theatricality of the event that points to a less definable intent. A charismatic leader, surging crowds, speeches in Hindu rather than Gujarati, the dramatic destruction of public property , seem to be elements of a spectacle aimed at creating a mood as much as or rather than stating a demand. The atmospherics need to be watched.
Assembly Elections, over the years
2017
The A to Z of the issues of the Assembly elections
Parth Shastri, December 17, 2017: The Times of India
A
AURANGZEB RAJ | PM Modi gave the example of Aiyar's comparison of dynastic rule and wished the Congress the best of luck for it.
AMETHI | It found a way into Amit Shah's speech in two references — Congress couldn't win seat there in the recent UP elections; and people of Amethi come to Gujarat seeking jobs.
B
BLUETOOTH | The hardware put Congress on the alert when a number of EVMs allegedly showed 'ECO' code in nearby devices.
BLUE WHALE | The game ending in suicide was mentioned by the PM in his speech in which he claimed that Dec 18 results would be the last day of the Congress.
C
CHAI | Rahul Gandhi savoured a cuppa at Dakor while Modi thundered that he would sell tea but not the country.
D
DEMONETIZATION | 'Notebandi', along with GST, were heavily criticized by the Congress in hubs like Surat and Morbi while Modi said at rallies that demonetization and the tax had hit the Congress hard.
E
E EXIT POLL | Hours after the second phase of voting was over, exit poll results predicted a victory for the BJP. It was trending on #1 on Twitter in India on Dec 14
F
F FATWA | PM Modi termed an advice to the Christians from an archbishop of Gandhinagar, 'fatwa', and gave several examples of how their 'rashtra prem' knew no region or religion
FIXED PAY | The fixed pay system was severely criticised by many supporters of the Congress, including a professor and ASHA workers.
G
GABBAR SINGH TAX| Rahul Gandhi equated GST with the psychopathic villain of the film, Sholay, in each of his rallies. Modi countered it with Grand Stupid Thought.
H
HARD WORK | Modi said that he one can do wonders with hard work and achieve what people from 'Harvard' couldn't.
HAPPINESS INDEX | Congress included it in its election manifesto as Rahul Gandhi talked about 'pyaar ka politics' during the campaign.
I
INDIRA GANDHI | The former Prime Minister found mention in Modi's election speech at Morbi when Modi said how she had covered her nose with a handkerchief when he and others were cleaning up the city after Machchu tragedy.
J
JANEUDHARI | Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala described Rahul Gandhi as 'Janeudhari Brahmin' after a row over his religion after Gandhi's visit to Somnath temple.
K
KARADIYA RAJPUT | The community started agitation and threatened that it would ensure that the BJP was defeated if the state BJP chief was not shown door after a tiff. BJP leadership later brokered a peace.
L
LOAN WAIVER | Rahul Gandhi repeated his promise that within 10 days of the formation of the Congress government in the state, the party will start the process of waiving farmer loans.
M
MAGICIAN | PM Modi was called 'magician' by Rahul Gandhi who made money disappear from Gujarat. BJP's plan to bring in magicians from other states to engage voters was also ridiculed by the Congress.
MUSHROOM | OBC leader Alpesh Thakor alleged that eating Taiwanese mushrooms was the secret behind Modi's 'tomato-red' cheeks.
N
NEECH | Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar raked up a controversy when he called Modi 'neech kism ka aadmi'. Modi made emotional appeals to Gujarat voters to avenge through ballot this insult of a son of Gujarat.
NARMADA DAM | BJP claimed full credit for completing the Narmada dam project whose construction had taken 30 years. PM Modi claimed that former PM Manmohan Singh did not give him time to discuss the dam's height
O
OCKHI | The cyclone temporarily stole the thunder from the high-pitched election campaign but dissipated without affecting election dates.
P
PAKISTAN | Modi accused the neighbouring country of meddling in Gujarat elections.
POTATO | The humble tuber came into limelight when Rahul Gandhi emulated Modi's promise of converting potato into gold and turned it into a meme
PAPPU | EC banned the use of the word to describe Rahul Gandhi.
Q
Q QUOTA | Patidars fight for a quota had an enormous impact on the state polls. Congress has promised a formula which the BJP has dismissed as constitutionally invalid.
R
RAM MANDIR | BJP seized on the issue after Congress leader Kapil Sibal appeared in Supreme Court and requested it to defer the hearing till after 2019 LS polls.
RAFALE | The deal for fighter jets was one of the two major allegations of corruption against the NDA government. It found mention in each of Rahul Gandhi's speeches.
S
SEA PLANE | PM Modi travelled to Dharoi dam from Sabarmati riverfront in this aircraft amid much publicity and fanfare
SEXTAPES | Avalanche of sex-clips of PAAS leader Hardik Patel and his aides went viral on social media ahead of the elections.
SAAS-BAHU SAGA | Rangeshwari Chauhan, estranged wife of BJP MP Prabhatsinh Chauhan, made the BJP's fight tough in Kalol constituency when the MP's daughter-in-law Suman, older than Rangeshwari, was given the BJP ticket
T
TEMPLE RUN | Both Rahul Gandhi and Modi engaged in it by visiting every major temple in the state
U
UDYOGPATI MITRA | Rahul Gandhi's oftused jibe at Modi's 5-10 'industrialist friends' who had allegedly benefited most out of the 'Gujarat model'.
V
VIKAS | After PAAS and Congress came up with 'vikas had gone crazy', the BJP embraced it as its poll plank and came out with a string of videos and slogans asserting the state's development VVPAT | Supreme Court turned down the Congress plea to count VVPAT slips in Gujarat elections.
W
WOMEN CANDIDATES | The number of women fielded by the two parties was again small — Congress fielded 10 women candidates while the BJP gave ticket to 12. This despite talk of 33% reservation for women.
X
X FACTOR | After development, caste emerged as the primary variable while choosing candidates. OBCs and Patidars established themselves as communities that cannot ignored.
Y
YOUTH POLITICS/ YOUNG TURKS | Three young leaders — Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani — infused fresh blood in the state's politics. Earlier, both the major parties primarily relied on old hands.
Y CATEGORY | Hardik Patel initially refused Y category protection saying that it might be misused for snooping.
Z
ZERO VOTER TURNOUT | A couple of villages in the state like Gajadi near Morbi boycotted the election over local issues and did not cast a single vote in protest.
2018
BJP wins 47/ 75municipalities; Congress 16
Kapil Dave, February 19,2018: The Times of India
February 20, 2018: The Times of India
HIGHLIGHTS
BJP wins 47 municipalities out of 75 as the Congress wins 16.
In 2013, the Congress had won a mere eight municipalities.
Both the parties claim to have support in 10 municipalities.
Continuing its winning run in the 2017 assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Monday grabbed power in 47 municipalities out of 75 in the civic elections. However, the Congress also received traction and increased its number, winning 16. In 2013, it had won a mere eight municipalities. In 2013 also, the BJP had won 47 out 75 municipalities.
BJP has retained the same number of seats — 47 out of 75 — in Gujarat municipal polls as it had won five years back in 2013, with the party winning 27 of the 28 seats in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home town Vadnagar in Mehsana district. Congress has improved its tally from eight municipalities to 16.
The BJP also won from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home Vadnagar municipality.
Both the parties claim to have support in 10 municipalities where there is no clear mandate and independents are in higher numbers.
State election commissioner Varesh Sinha said, “Out of 75 municipalities, BJP has won 47, Congress 16, NCP one and BSP one. There is no clear mandate in six municipalities, while independents have the edge in four. Of total 2,060 municipal councillor seats, BJP won 1,167, Congress 630, BSP 15, NCP 28, and other parties won 18. Independents won 202 seats.”
State election commissioner Varesh Sinha said that, “Out of 75 municipalities, BJP has won 47, Congress has won 16, while both NCP and BSP have won from 1 (municipality). There is no clear mandate in six municipalities while in four municipalities, independents have an edge."
“Out of 2060 seats, BJP won 1167 seats, Congress won 630 seats, BSP won 15, NCP won 28 seats, other parties won 18 seats while independents won 202 seats," added Sinha.
Voting for the 75 municipalities was held last Saturday and the results were declared on Monday.
Both parties have reasons to rejoice and both claim that they will form the bodies in 10 municipalities where there is no clear mandate as there are many Independent winners.
Gujarat BJP was elated with the party’s performance in Vadnagar. “We have won 47 of 75 municipalities, which is almost the same performance as of 2013. But we have won municipalities in 41 assembly constituencies where Congress won in the December 2017 assembly elections. This shows that people have lost confidence in Congress within just two months,” Gujarat BJP chief Jitu Vaghani said.
‘Jai Hind’ instead of ‘Yes sir’ in schools
From now on, school students across Gujarat, will say ‘Jai Hind’ or ‘Jai Bharat’ during roll call instead of ‘Yes sir’ or ‘Yes madam’. A circular to this effect has been issued by the state education department, making it mandatory for school students. A government resolution on the mandate was also released by the department.
Officials of the state education department said the move is aimed at promoting patriotism among students from an early age. “When I was a student, it was compulsory for me and other students to confirm attendance by saying Jai Hind/ Jai Bharat. The practice was later discontinued. We have taken a decision to resume the practice from Tuesday onwards,” said Bhupendrasinh Chudasama, state education minister.
“A student says yes sir/ yes madam at least 10,000 times during their schooling. If they replace this with Jai Hind/ Jay Bharat, it will harbour sentiments of patriotism among them,” he added.
The notification says, “District education officers (DEO) are supposed to ensure that the circular is strictly implemented across all the government, grant-in-aid and self-financed schools.”
During the recently held 64th national convention of Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) in Ahmedabad, the recipient of Professor Yashwantrai Kelkar Award, Sandeep Joshi, a schoolteacher based in Jhalor, Rajasthan, said, “We implemented this practice in our school as a pilot project. However, it later got extrapolated to being implemented across Rajasthan.”
Chudasama was also present at the ABVP convention, when Joshi shared this. When asked if the Rajasthan Model is being followed in Gujarat, he said, “There is no harm in adopting best practices in education that are implemented in other parts of the country".
2022
The cabinet
Dec 13, 2022: The Times of India
Gandhinagar : Bhupendra Patel, BJP’s surprise pick to replace Vijay Rupani as Gujarat CM in September 2021 took oath for a second consecutive term as PM Narendra Modi and the party’s undisputed choice to lead a new 17-member government shorn of controversial names and including five new faces.
Seven ministers from Patel’s erstwhile cabinet and three from the dissolved Rupani ministry were among the 16 others sworn in at a ceremony whose scale seemed to match the sheen of BJP’s record-shattering electoral tally of 156 out of 182 seats that gave it a seventh successive term.
Amost the entire BJP brass, including Union home minister Amit Shah, and the CMs of eight states governed by the party and its allies were in attendance as PM Modi, credited with pulling off the landslide, bowed to a crowd that reciprocated each such gesture with a loud cheer.
The new council of ministers has the PM’s stamp. Modi had arrived in Gujarat the previous night to finalise the names who would make it to the podium, based on a basic criteria of clean image and potential to make a mark aheadof the bigger battle ahead in 2024, insiders said.
“Congratulations to Bhupendrabhai Patel on taking oath as CM of Gujarat. I would like to also congratulate all those who took oath as ministers. This is an energetic team which will take Gujarat to even newer heights of progress,” the PM tweeted after the ceremony.
The list includes four Congress turncoats. Kunvarji Bavaliya, Raghavji Patel and Balwantsinh Rajput all got cabinet ranks, while Kunvarji Halpati was made a minister of state. Cabinet berths were alsogiven to Kanu Desai, Rushikesh Patel, Mulu Bera, Kuber Dindor and Bhanu Babariya, the lone woman and Dalit face in the government. Harsh Sanghavi and Jagdish Vishwakarma were sworn in as ministers of state with independent charge. Parshottam Solanki, Bachu Khabad, Mukesh Patel, Praful Pansheriya and Bhikhusinh Parmar were inducted as ministers of state.
Despite the buzz about them, neither of the two former caste and community warriors — Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor — were included in the new cabinet. Banas Dairy chairman and former state minister Shankar Chaudhary was also not picked as a minister.
Hours after the swearingin, CM Patel presided over the first cabinet meeting of the new government and retained all major portfolios except the industries department, which went to Rajput, an industrialist. BJP’s rising star in Gujarat, 37-year-old Sanghavi, was made minister of state for home and industries along with independent charge of eight other departments.
Caste combinations
2014 and 2016: Socio-regional profile of Chief Ministers
See graphic, ‘Socio-regional profile of Chief Minister in Gujarat, 2014 and 2016’
KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim)
BJP warns Patels, says Cong trying to short change them | Oct 25 2017 |The Times of India (Delhi)
The `KHAM formula', helped Congress bag 149 of the state's 182 seats in 1985.
The brainchild of the then CM Madhavsinh Solanki, KHAM -a combination of Kshatriyas (OBCs included), Harijans, Adivasis and Muslims -proved a successful experiment to forge an unbeatable alliance that enveloped nearly 70% of Gujarat's population. It excluded Patels and other upper castes who deserted Congress en masse. That didn't matter though, as Solanki went on to set an electoral record that stands to date.
The BJP has long banked upon support from the upper castes.
Significantly , KHAM also led to Congress' downfall as it was not able to keep the combination intact since it had been tried for the first time.In 1990, the Chimanbhai Patel-led Janata Dal weaned away most Patel votes and formed a coalition government with BJP. It fell apart mid-way after the Babri demolition, and Congress was happy to help Chimanbhai and remain in power as a secular coalition. Since 1995, BJP has won all the five assembly elections, although they had to lose power once due to the Shankersinh Vaghela-led rebellion that Congress again cashed in on.
BJP's ascent and ability to stay at the top was rooted in the deep inroads it made by doggedly working among the Ksha triyas, OBCs, Dalits and Adivasis under the `Hindutva' umbrella to break up `KHAM'.All this, while keeping its Patel and upper caste vote bank intact. Modi himself made conscious efforts to prop up a fresh leadership from among KHAM constituents.
Kshatriyas vs the others
2024
Saeed Khan, May 4, 2024: The Times of India
It was only after PM Modi moved to Delhi that communities began to get reorganised to extract the most out of the power pie. Patel quota agitations, Dalit stirs and show of strength of Thakors in 2016-17 were manifestations of this churn.
These agitations were brought under control once two of the three key people behind them — Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor — joined BJP. Patel belongs to the powerful Patidar community, a bulwark of BJP’s success since 1980. BJP’s rise in Gujarat is largely due to the Patels, who wholeheartedly backed the saffron party in retaliation to the social-engineering formula KHAM (Kshatriyas, Harijans, Adivasis and Muslims), brainchild of former CM Madhavsinh Solanki.
Gujarat’s one-sided parliamentary poll battle — BJP won all 26 seats in 2014 and 2019 — turned a tad interesting after Rupala’s take on Kshatriyas, Rajputs in particular. BJP’s fielded the RS member in LS elections. Kshatriyas demanded the party revoke his candidature from Rajkot constituency in Saurashtra, a region where caste divides run deep.
But protesters limited their demand to recall of Rupala’s candidature, at the same time expressing their loyalty to BJP, and asserting they had no issue with Modi. But despite Rupala’s apology, and the party’s appeals for ‘forgiveness’, protesters stuck to their demand.
An anxious Rupala rushed to New Delhi, returned confident, and threw himself into campaigning. As he filed his nomination, it was abundantly clear BJP wasn’t going to yield to Kshatriya protesters’ demands.
Why did BJP choose to back Rupala at the cost of antagonising a community? The answer lies in numbers and reverse consolidation of non-Kshatriya votes in its favour. The Kshatriya vote is not predominant in any of Gujarat’s LS seats. While they may reduce BJP’s vote share, they cannot cause its defeat.
Kshatriyas strictly adhere to hierarchy. Those less privileged economically and socially within the community see the inherent inequality, but the privileged strata are oblivious to it. Hence, the protesters who identify themselves as Rajputs within the larger Kshatriya fold in Gujarat barely received the support of other aspiring Kshatriya castes like the Thakors or the Kolis. Together, the Thakors and Kolis form the largest electoral group in Gujarat.
Efforts by organisations such as Gujarat Kshatriya Sabha (GKS) to unite all sub-castes under one umbrella have not borne fruit. When GKS sought unification to push for reservation benefits, they met with resistance from erstwhile ‘royals’ who strongly opposed the bid for reservation, emphasising their higher status. Later, Thakors and Kolis were included as OBCs.
BJP has little to worry about any possible electoral fallout from the protests. These protests cannot disrupt the party’s plans in the manner that the annoyed Patidars had, after the quota stir, which pushed BJP’s tally to below 100 in Gujarat’s 182-seat assembly in 2017’s election.
This time, BJP’s support for Rupala, a Patel, is resulting in consolidating the Patidar votes in towns and villages. Competition between Kshatriyas and Patels is intense in villages. Kshatriya protest has also united two Patidar segments, the Leuvas and Kadvas. Rupala is a Kadva Patidar. His comment targeted Rajputs, which Thakors and Kolis barely related to.
Sociologist Ghanshyam Shah says the protesters cannot mobilise resources in the same way the Patidars did during 2015’s quota stir. To exploit the inequality among Kshatriyas, BJP’s encouraged patriarchs of erstwhile ‘royalty’ to appeal to the protesters.
BJP is also angling to swing another caste equation. Kshatriya anger is directed towards its Patidar candidate. The agitation could therefore electorally blur the distinction between Leuva and Kadva Patidars in Saurashtra. BJP may also consolidate support of so-called lower castes, who will support its unyielding stance on Kshatriyas. It thus has little reason to heed Rajput protests.
Emblems of the state
State fish
Avinash Nair, Nov 24, 2023: The Indian Express
The Gujarat government chose the ghol because of its economic value and its uniqueness. The fish is usually found in the Indo-Pacific region that stretches from the Persian Gulf to the Pacific Ocean. The declaration will enable Gujarat to be a part of its conservation efforts, said officials.
“Every state can declare a state fish. While deciding one for Gujarat, the first thing that came to our mind was the uniqueness of the fish species. This fish is not easily available. Catches that are reported are far and few between. The second factor was the economic value of the fish, and third, we needed to conserve it and prevent it from over-exploitation,” Nitin Sangwan, Commissioner of Fisheries, Gujarat government, told The Indian Express.
Which other species were in the fray?
“Selecting a state fish is a consultative process with representatives of all the districts. Ribbon fish, pomfret, and Bombay Duck were the other species that were considered for designation as state fish,” Sangwan said.
What is the commercial importance of this fish species?
Being an expensive fish, the local consumption of this variety is not widely heard of, said experts. But the fish has a huge market in China and other countries.
“The fish is actually a lottery for fishermen who manage to net it. The fish is not only tasty, it is considered a delicacy in many countries. In others, it is used for medicinal purposes. While the meat of the fish is exported as frozen fillet or whole fish to European and Middle-Eastern countries, its air bladder — which is cut open from the stomach and dried — is mainly exported to China, Hong Kong and other Asian countries where it is in high demand for its medicinal values,” said Jignesh Visavadia, state coordinator for Network for Fish Quality Management and Sustainable Fishing (NETFISH), a registered society formed under the aegis of the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA) of the the government.
“A kilogram of Ghol fetches between Rs5,000 to Rs15,000 in Gujarat. However, it is the dried air bladder of the fish that is the costliest, and can fetch amounts as high as Rs25,000 a kilogram in the export market,” added Visavadia, who is based in Veraval, a fishing hub of Gujarat. According to Visavadia, a single fish of this species can weigh as much as 25 kg.
How much fish does Gujarat export?
During the year 2021-22, the total fish production of Gujarat was estimated at 8.74 lakh tonne, worth Rs 11,221 crore. Of this, 2.3 lakh tonne of fish and fish products worth Rs 5,233 crore were exported
Encounters
2002-07
Three of 18 encounters were fake
Dhananjay Mahapatra, January 12, 2019: The Times of India
From: Dhananjay Mahapatra, January 12, 2019: The Times of India
The Gujarat government, which had vehemently opposed making public the Justice H S Bediheaded monitoring authority’s probe report on encounter killings between 2002 and 2007 when Narendra Modi was CM, will heave a sigh of relief as the report named no politician and termed only three of the 18 encounters during the period as fake.
In its 221-page final report, Justice Bedi said 15 of the 18 encounters appeared genuine and no action was required with regard to those. The monitoring authority found the encounters in the three remaining cases to be fake and recommended prosecution of nine police officers on murder charges.
Bedi panel’s finding comes as relief for BJP leadership
The finding comes as a respite to the BJP leadership, which has been dogged by allegations of “fake encounters” during Modi’s chief ministership.
However, in what could ensure the controversy keeps simmering, Justice Bedi’s report referred to a 2007 sting operation carried out by Tehelka relating to Sameer Khan’s killing in an encounter in 2002 and subsequent affidavits naming “some very senior functionaries of the state government, both political as well as administrative”.
“The persons so named are not before me in any proceedings in the light of the fact that my mandate is a limited one and is confined to the determination as to whether the 18 encounters, which have been referred to the monitoring authority and the special task force were stage-managed custodial killings or genuine encounters. In this view of the matter, I am not called upon to comment on all the allegations levelled by Sarfaraz Khan or on all the answers made by Tirth Raj (in the sting operation),” Justice Bedi said.
However, terming Sameer Khan’s killing in Ahmedabad to be a fake one, the monitoring authority recommended prosecution of inspectors K M Vaghela and T A Barot on murder charges.
There were two other cases in which Justice Bedi found the encounters to be fake. It found that Kasim Jaffer was killed on April 13, 2006, in a fake encounter. The former SC judge recommended prosecution of sub-inspector J M Bharwad and constable Ganeshbhai on murder charges. Justice Bedi also ordered payment of Rs 14 lakh compensation to Mariam Jaffer, widow of the deceased, and their five children.
The third fake encounter related to the killing of Haji Ismail on October 9, 2005, at a place under Umargram police station in Valsad district. The monitoring authority recommended prosecution of five police officers — inspector K G Erda, sub-inspectors L B Monpara, J M Yadav, S K Shah and Parag P Vyas, who shot and fatally injured Ismail — on murder charges.
The vehemence with which Gujarat government counsel Rajat Nair and senior advocate Rakesh Dwivedi, who appeared for the purported accused, had opposed the suggestion from a SC bench headed by Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi to share Justice Bedi’s report with Prashant Bhushan, who appeared for petitioners Javed Akhtar and B G Verghese, gave the impression that they were apprehensive of “bigwigs” of Gujarat politics getting named by the monitoring authority. The SC had rejected the objection and given a copy to Bhushan.
Municipal corporations, results
2021
February 23, 2021: The Times of India
BJP sweeps Gujarat civic polls, AAP makes inroads, setback for Congress
NEW DELHI: The BJP is set to retain power in all six municipal corporations of Gujarat, winning at least 449 of the total 576 seats till Tuesday evening. Counting is still under way in a few constituencies.
The result will come as a shot in the arm for the saffron party, which suffered a sound defeat at the hands of the Congress in the recent Punjab civic polls.
'Grand victory’
With the BJP headed for a landslide, Prime Minister Narendra Modi termed the victory as "very special" and said it is noteworthy for a party that has been serving in a state for over two decades to record such a phenomenal win.
He said the results of municipal elections clearly show the unwavering faith people have in politics of development and good governance.
Chief minister Vijay Rupani and deputy chief minister Nitin Patel expressed gratitude to the voters and BJP workers for the results.
"The grand victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the elections of six municipal corporations is the victory of the people of Gujarat.
"This is a grand victory of the politics of development started by Hon'ble Prime Minister @narendramodi," tweeted Rupani in Gujarati.
"Many thanks and congratulations to all the winning candidates, BJP office-bearers, workers and the voters of Gujarat for the glorious victory of Bharatiya Janata Party in the elections," tweeted Nitin Patel.
AAP makes inroads
While the BJP dominated the civic elections, new entrant Aam Aadmi Party also made impressive gains in the state by winning 27 seats in Surat.
In all, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party had fielded 470 candidates across the six constituencies.
In Surat, the AAP has now pushed the Congress from the second to third position. Party leaders said Kejriwal will hold a road show in Surat after the impressive performance.
Setback for Congress
The Congress's string of poor performance in Gujarat continues, with the grand old party managing to bag just 43 of the declared seats so far.
Former state Congress president Arjun Modwadia said the election results are disheartening for the party workers.
"The election results of six municipalities are disheartening for Congress workers in Gujarat. We accept the people's mandate but after every dark night there is a dawn. We will work hard to get the confidence of urban voters," Modwadia told news agency IANS.
The Congress had lost all the the Lok Sabha seats in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Following the poor performance, a series of Congress leaders resigned on Tuesday.
Ashok Dangar, Rajkot Congress president tendered his resignation. Similarly, Babu Rayka, Surat Congress president and Prakash Vaghani, Bhavnagar Congress president, also submitted their resignations.
(With inputs from agencies)
Muslims in Gujarat elections
Muslim MPs and LS candidates
1962-2014
Himanshu Kaushik, Kapil Dave, (With inputs from Yagnesh Mehta), April 5, 2019: The Times of India
From: Himanshu Kaushik, Kapil Dave, (With inputs from Yagnesh Mehta), April 5, 2019: The Times of India
The last Muslim to make it to the Lok Sabha from Gujarat was Congress’s Ahmed Patel in 1984. In 1989, Patel lost the Bharuch seat to BJP’s Chandu Deshmukh by 1.15 lakh votes. Ever since, no Muslim has made it to the Lok Sabha from Gujarat. Muslims make up 9.5% of the state’s population.
In 1962, when the newly-formed Gujarat voted in its first Lok Sabha elections, only one Muslim candidate won, Johara Chavda, from Banaskantha.
In 1977, the state elected two Muslims, both from the Congress — Ahmed Patel from Bharuch and Ehsan Jafri from Ahmedabad — the greatest representation Muslims have seen from Gujarat ever.
The Bharuch Lok Sabha seat has the highest concentration of Muslim voters in Gujarat. Currently, of the 15.64 lakh voters in Bharuch, 22.2% are Muslims.
Since 1962, eight Muslim candidates have been fielded by a national party in Bharuch, all from the Congress, but only Ahmed Patel was able to win. He won three straight Lok Sabha elections from Bharuch, in 1977, 1982 and 1984.
"Muslims are not only socially but also politically marginalized in Gujarat. This was amplified after the 2002 riots," says Kiran Desai, a social scientist at the Centre for Social Studies (CSS). Desai was part of the team that worked on a report for CSS after the 1992 riots.
Since 1989, just seven Muslim candidates have been fielded in the Lok Sabha elections in Gujarat by a national party, all by the Congress.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, of the total 334 candidates in the fray in Gujarat, 67 (or 19.76%) were Muslims. That year the Congress fielded just one Muslim candidate, Maksud Mirza, from Navsari.
All the other 66 Muslim candidates fought as independents or for parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP). In the 2014 elections, most Muslims in the fray contested from the Panchamahal, Kheda, Anand, Bharuch, Navsari, Sabarkantha, Jamnagar and Junagadh seats.
In 2009, Kaleem Abdul Latif Sheikh, a Lok Janshakti Party candidate (LJP) in Panchmahal led to the defeat of Congress candidate Shankersinh Vaghela.
Latif polled 23,615 votes while Vaghela lost by a mere 2,081 votes. The winner was the BJP’s Prabhatsinh Chauhan. BJP spokesman Bharat Pandya, said, "Our party considers winnability, representation from the local party cadre and the candidates own following in the area before allotting a ticket."
Congress spokesman Manish Doshi said, "Our party has three Muslim MLAs in the state assembly. Earlier too we have given Muslims tickets for Lok Sabha elections in Gujarat, but they did not win."
2017: Gujarat’s Muslims out of poll picture
HIGHLIGHTS
After 2002, the community has turned inwards, focusing on education and trying to rebuild businesses
Gujarat’s Muslims are completely ghettoized across riot hit cities like Vadodara and Ahmedabad
Dr JS Bandukwala, former Physics professor at MS University, has always been the face of dignity in the face of immense personal suffering. He lost his home when it was attacked by mobs during the 2002 post Godhra riots, his long time neighbours slammed doors in his face, he was shunned by his university colleagues and made a victim of a witch-hunt. Yet Bandukwala is marked by a singular lack of bitterness and today runs a charitable educational trust for Muslim youth. While the 2002 riots were once a volatile issue in Gujarat polls, in this election the riots are a non-issue and Gujarat's ten percent Muslim community as a whole is invisible in the poll. "Muslims are isolated and have been made politically redundant," says Bandukwala, "but our irrelevance is not a bad thing. We are being left alone even though Modi fights elections best when he makes Muslims the target. Modi needs a Muslim target, but this time the Gujarati Muslims are lying low."
So have Gujarat's Muslims grown numbed by the attacks on them and do they not raise their voices anymore? "Muslims are keeping their cards close to their chest and keeping quiet," says businessman Zubair Gopalani. "We are teaching our community to turn away from hate, to love Hindus as our brothers and work for development."
After 2002, the community has turned inwards, focusing on education and trying to rebuild businesses. "We are keeping quiet, doing our work and being happy in our irrelevance," says businessman TA Siddiqi. "Neglect is good, all we ask is humko chain se jeene de." Feroze Ansari and Pervez Misarwalla are IT professionals who have started a group called Rising Indians to bring Muslims into the mainstream and train them in leadership skills. However they're hurt by government discrimination. "When we do public spirited works like provide water to traffic police in summer, the government does not send us certificates the way they do with Hindu bodies," says Ansari.
In the Muslim locality of Tandalja many complain about lack of infrastructure, schools and playgrounds. Recently 1800 hutments were demolished here. "The police still comes and picks up innocent Muslim youth on flimsy charges," says shop-owner Imran Patel.
Gujarat's Muslims are completely ghettoized across riot hit cities like Vadodara and Ahmedabad. Rich and poor cluster together in designated localities, the Disturbed Areas Act preventing Hindus or Muslims from buying property in each others' areas without the permission of the administration. Pointing to the fact that many private schools refuse to take "M class" students, Pervez Misarwalla of Rising Indians believes Muslims need to create their own schools and colleges. "Across UP and Maharashtra there are many Muslim institutions, but almost none in Gujarat." He adds that there are many Muslim IAS and IPS officers in Gujarat but they are sidelined and marginalized.
In the Muslim area of Tandalja, posh bungalows adjoin slum colonies, multi-storied buildings share walls with low cost housing. "My daughters get upset when they hear the bad language being spoken in slums next to us, but we have no place to move to," says Siddiqi. Yet many say things have changed for the better. "2002 was a blessing for Muslims in a way," says entrepreneur and educationist Saira Khan. "Muslims gave up on liquor trade and other such activities and turned squarely to education. Today for Gujarati Muslims its education, education, education. That's our focus."
How do Muslims feel when BJP leaders continue to target them in speeches? "We feel hurt," says Bandukwala, "but we are so used to it by now. In this election Muslims are keeping quiet and refusing to be provoked even when threatened." "We counsel our community not to act in rage, not to hit back, because this only inflames the situation," says Gopalani. Counters Imran, "But if they misbehave with my Muslim sister should I just sit back and take it?" Counsels Siddiqi. "Lets use the courts, use the police, Ek chup, sau balatali: One moment of silence can solve a lot of problems."
Interestingly, the Congress too has chosen to stay silent on any issue which might flare up a Hindu Muslim tangle. "The Congress talks of looking after our interests but in reality they are much too scared to raise their voice. It's now all about who gets the Hindu vote,' says engineering student Pervaiz Sadiq.
Only 2 Muslim MLAs were elected in the last assembly elections of 2012 and for decades a Gujarati Muslim has not been elected to Parliament. But Muslims here say they prefer a peaceful irrelevance, than a potentially conflictual struggle for political space. Gujarat's post 2002 ghettoisation is complete.
Growing irrelevance of Muslim vote
On the the eve of the first phase of voting in Gujarat, Election With Times travelled to what is believed to be the oldest mosque in India: the Barwada Juni Masjid in Ghogha in Bhavnagar.
The mosque is said to have been built by Arab traders in the Prophet's time and is the only mosque whose mehrab points towards Jerusalem, as per the tradition in the Prophet's early years. In contrast, all the mosques built later point towards Mecca as per the Prophet's directions.
Election With Times: In this special episode from Juni Masjid, we discuss the growing irrelevance of the Muslim vote in Gujarat. Muslims constitute 9.67% of the Gujarat electorate and remain pivotal in 30 out of 182 assembly seats. However, like in UP, BJP is not fielding any Muslim candidate in the upcoming elections. On the other hand, Congress will field 6 Muslim candidates (1 less than in 2012).
The BJP did not acquiesce to the Minority Morcha's demand for Muslim candidates in six seats (Jamalpur-Khadia, Vejalpur, Vagra, Wankaner, Bhuj and Abdasa).
In fact, BJP has fielded only one Muslim candidate for assembly polls (in 1995) in Gujarat since 1980. Abdul Gani Kureshi contested as a BJP candidate from Vagra in 1995 and lost to Congress by 26,439 votes.
Yet, BJP fielded 325 Muslim candidates in 2010 panchayat and municipal polls: 245 of them won. BJP also fielded 450 Muslim candidates in 2015 panchayat and municipal polls.
Muslim politics in Gujarat has evolved in the last decade, with many Muslims also supporting BJP, but low Muslim representation relative to their population share in Gujarat's electoral politics continues to raise questions.
Parties’ performance
1962-2017: BJP vis-à-vis Congress
Prabhash K Dutta, Nov 22, 2022: The Times of India
From: Prabhash K Dutta, Nov 22, 2022: The Times of India
Gujarat is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) hub and a matter of political pride. Though Atal Bihari Vajpayee remains its most acceptable leader across parties, the BJP owes its consolidation and stupendous rise in politics to three organisational leaders from Gujarat — LK Advani, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.
While Advani’s strenuous efforts brought the BJP to power in Gujarat in the mid-1990s, the Modi-Shah duo made it look invincible in the first quarter of the 21st century. Their dominance has been such that the Gujarat model has become synonymous with both the BJP and Prime Minister Modi.
But this had not always been the case. Despite Gujarat being projected as the laboratory of Hindutva politics and the BJP’s electoral success, the party is yet to match the heights that the Congress reached in its heyday.
Gujarat was carved out as a separate state from Bombay in 1960. The first assembly was held in 1962. For most of the next 23 years, it dominated the polls barring a few aberrations. In fact, the BJP’s best show in terms of seats in 2002 would stand poorer than the Congress’ fourth best achieved in the 1962 polls.
In terms of vote share, the BJP’s best show came in 2002, when it polled almost 50% votes and roughly maintained that vote share till 2017. But the Congress’ dominance was greater over the Gujarati voters during its heyday, with a peak of about 56% in 1985 — the election was held four months after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, the incumbent prime minister.
While the Congress has governed Gujarat through its chief ministers for about 24 years — excluding close to five years by its Congress (O) faction — the BJP has ruled the state for 25 years. The rise of the BJP in Gujarat in the 1990 assembly election meant that the Congress never won a popular mandate again.
Elusive constituencies
However, there are several seats in which the Gujarati voter has always rejected the BJP despite its undefeated run since 1998 — interestingly coterminous with the dominance of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi over the Congress.
The BJP has never tasted victory at Borsad and Anklav in Anand district, Jhagadia in Bharuch, Vyara in Tapi, Bhiloda (with an exception of 1995) in Aravali, Danilimda in Ahmedabad and Garbada in Dahod.
Borsad has always voted for the Congress except in the first election in 1962. The Congress had won Jhagadia till 1985 after which the constituency elected Chhotubhai Vasava for seven consecutive terms — six times for the Janata Dal and once (2017) for his Bharatiya Tribal Party.
Vyara has always sent Congress nominees to the assembly, except on two occasions in 1990 and 1995 when it voted for rebel Congressmen. Similarly, Mahudha, Anklav, Danilimda and Garbada have never elected a BJP candidate since they were carved out. There are some other constituencies where the BJP has achieved some success but never in an assembly election. Khedbrahma in Sabarkantha district has always elected a Congress nominee except in the 1967 assembly election and the 1990 bypoll, which the BJP won.
The BJP has won the Danta seat in Banaskantha district and Jasdan in Rajkot only in bypolls. The BJP’s story in Rajkot’s Dhoraji is peculiar. It won this seat in 1990 and 1995 when it was graduating to be the most dominant player but the BJP is waiting for its first election victory since 1998. It won this seat in a 2013 bypoll.
Why these seats matter
These constituencies spread over several districts have a common link besides being unfavourable to the BJP. Most of them are dominated by tribal voters. Gujarat has 27 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribe (ST) candidates. This is one voting community, besides the Muslims, that the BJP has not been able to win over sufficiently.
With the Congress being the only challenger earlier, the BJP had found a state election winning formula. But with the entry of a disruptor in the form of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), whose election prowess in Gujarat remains untested and unknown, these tribal-dominated seats have gained more significance than they previously had.
Of the 27 reserved seats, the BJP had won just eight in 2017, with the Congress pocketing 15. In 2012, the BJP had won 10 of these seats, while the Congress had won 16. Before the 2008 delimitation, the number of ST reserved seats was 26. In 2007, the BJP had won 11, the Congress had secured 14.
By going for Droupadi Murmu as the President, the BJP has tried to send out a message to the community in general and the tribal voters of Gujarat in particular. STs make up about 15% of the Gujarat population and spread across 14 districts in eastern Gujarat.
A flurry of visits by President Murmu to states with a tribal identity — the northeastern states of Assam and Tripura in October; Nagaland, Mizoram and Sikkim in early November; Odisha last week; and iconic tribal leader Birsa Munda’s village in Jharkhand this week — may silently work in the BJP’s favour when the tribal voters go to the polling booths on December 1 and 5 in Gujarat.
2012-17
Kapil Dave & Himanshu Kaushik, Why BJP has extra homework in Guj, March 27, 2019: The Times of India
From: Kapil Dave & Himanshu Kaushik, Why BJP has extra homework in Guj, March 27, 2019: The Times of India
Saurashtra, North Seen As Weak Points
Riding the Modi wave, BJP swept all 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat in the 2014 general elections. Five years down the line, much water has flown down the Sabarmati. A resurgent Congress has made significant gains in the 2017 assembly polls and after a series of poaching and counter-poaching moves, both sides seem to be girding up for a tough battle ahead.
In 2017, Congress put up its best performance of the last three decades, clinching 77 seats. An analysis shows the Congress polled more votes – between 14,000 and 1.68 lakh – than BJP in eight Lok Sabha seats: Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Surendranagar, Junagadh, Amreli and Anand. Simply put, the votes polled by Congress candidates in assembly segments that make up these eight Lok Sabha seats is higher than the votes polled by BJP.
In Porbandar, where the NCP’s Kandhal Jadeja was elected from the Kutiyana assembly seat, the equation changes if there is an alliance between Congress and NCP. The Congress candidate had polled around 11,000 votes against Jadeja. If the NCP’s votes are added to the Congress tally, Porbandar becomes the ninth Lok Sabha seat where the Congress-NCP is leading, according to the 2017 voting data.
Evidently, BJP faces a major challenge in Saurashtra and North Gujarat, as seven of these eight seats are in these regions.
Among these eight seats, BJP has renominated only two MPs, Naran Kachadiya in Amreli and Dee psinh Rathod in Sabarkantha. The party is yet to name its candidates for five seats, while it has already named a fresh candidate, Dr Mahendra Mujpara, in Surendranagar, preferring him over sitting MP Devji Fatepara.
Following the state polls, BJP seems to have done some serious introspection and set rolling a plan to reverse the damage. Months after their rout in Saurashtra, BJP pulled off a coup by winning over senior Congress leader and OBC strongman Kunvarji Bavaliya. The party made him cabinet minister, swearing him within four hours of joining the party.
His induction has given an impetus to BJP’s ‘Mission Kamalam’ to dismantle Congress by luring MLAs to cross over to the saffron party.
Three Congress MLAs joined BJP recently and at least half a dozen more are set to switch shortly. A year after it made inroads in the state, Congress now has a task on hand to stem the exodus.
BJP’s strategy is simple — poach Congress MLAs and leaders in regions where BJP is not on a strong footing. Early March, senior Congress MLA and influential Ahir leader Jawahar Chavda resigned from the assembly and joined BJP. The Ahir community has sizeable numbers in the four LS seats of Saurashtra. Chavda is also president of the Gujarat Ahir Samaj.
The party has also been trying to woo young OBC leader Alpesh Thakor, who can influence the Thakor community which is dominant in four seats in north Gujarat where BJP is weak. Thakor recently clarified that he is not quitting Congress.
Veteran Congressman and party treasurer Ahmed Patel has been entrusted with working out a strategy for the party to hold on to gains made in the 2017 assembly elections. State unit chief Amit Chavda is crying foul about the BJP poaching its MLAs and leaders, but maintains in the same breath that Congress will do well in the LS elections.
Gujarat BJP president Jitu Vaghani says LS and assembly elections can’t be compared. “The people of Gujarat will vote for the magnetic leadership of Narendra Modi due to the performance of the Union government,” he said.
BJP will rely heavily on PM Modi’s charisma and the party has said a narrative will be built around development and the air strikes India carried out after the Pulwama attack.
With Modi presiding over two events of the Patidar community on March 4 and 5, where more than 5 lakh Patidars were in attendance, and the central legislation granding 10% quota to upper castes, BJP hopes the disgruntlement of the 2015 Patidar agitation too has been diluted.
Prohibition
2023: relaxation for GIFT City
The Gujarat government has allowed alcohol consumption in the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City). This move was made to attract global finance and has been welcomed by stakeholders, including tech companies, banks, and the hospitality sector.
The Gujarat government has also allowed the sale and consumption of alcohol in some form in hotels, restaurants, and clubs offering "Wine and Dine".
Gujarat has a sumptuary law in force that proscribes the manufacture, storage, sale, and consumption of alcoholic beverages. In India, consumption of alcohol is prohibited in the states of Bihar, Gujarat, Nagaland, and Mizoram, as well as the union territory of Lakshadweep.
University polls
2020
NSUI sweeps Guj Univ poll, gets 6 seats; ABVP 2
NSUI sweeps Guj Univ poll, gets 6 seats; ABVP just 2, March 10, 2020: The Times of India
Ahmedabad:
In a clean sweep, Congress’s student wing National Students Union of India (NSUI) won six of the Gujarat University’s eight senate seats for which elections were held on March 8. The students union elections, held after more than four years, saw the BJP-backed Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) win only two seats. The student senate body has 10 seats, two of which were won uncontested.
“The students of Gujarat University have ensured that the unity and democratic values of India are protected as they threw aside the ABVP in the student elections,” said NSUI spokesman Parthivraj Kathwadia. Of the 14 student welfare board seats, whose results were also declared on Monday, NSUI won nine and ABVP five. Both elections were held simultaneously. ABVP spokesman Samarth Bhatt claimed that in the 2016 elections, they had won six seats while NSUI had won four.
Voting patterns
1990-2012: urban areas vote BJP
From: Himanshu Kaushik, Gujarat cities appear to be impregnable BJP fortresses, November 26, 2017: The Times of India
The ruling BJP has maintained a complete domination over urban seats in eight municipal corporation areas of Gujarat since 1990. While there were in all 28 such seats till 2007, post-delimitation these increased to 39 in the last elections in 2012 — when BJP won a whopping 35. The Congress won only four — two in Ahmedabad and one each in Jamnagar and Rajkot.
Even in 1990, when the party contested just 143 seats out of a total of 182 seats in the assembly, BJP won 18 seats. Congress slide in urban Gujarat in fact began in 1990, when it bagged just four seats — with seven seats going to Janata Dal. The best performance by Congress in the last six elections for the city vote was in 2007 when it managed six wins.
The increase in seats post-delimitation was due to growing urbanisation and expansion of boundaries of some of the municipal corporations — Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Bhavnagar, Junagadh and Gandhinagar.
There are reasons to believe that if BJP wins a majority in 2017, it will be because of wins in the eight big cities of Gujarat. BJP presently rules all eight municipal corporations.
In 2015, when civic body polls were held across Gujarat, BJP ceded ground to Congress in the zila and taluka panchayats, as also the municipalities, but gave its best ever performance in the municipal corporations. This, despite the violent Patidar agitation for quota having begun well and truly.
BJP spokesperson Yamal Vyas said, “Our party has a strong urban presence because we had a good workers base in cities since 1990.”
Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi said, “We are raising urban issues but we need to focus more on booth management in cities in Gujarat. Even Rahul Gandhi has had a number of interactions with doctors, lawyers and businessmen.”
Voter turnout
Impact on the BJP, Congress: 1980-2017
Kumar Shakti Shekhar, Dec 8, 2022: The Times of India
NEW DELHI: Gujarat, which faced assembly election in two phases, registered a voter turnout of about 63 per cent. Since the BJP’s inception in 1980, a direct correlation is observed between the polling percentage and the number of seats the party wins in every assembly election in the state. Gujarat saw a voter turnout of 63.3 per cent in the first phase of polling held in 89 seats on December 1. The state registered a voter turnout of about 64 per cent in the second phase of election held in 93 seats.
The state has witnessed a polling percentage of about 63.7 per cent in both the phases. This is about 5.4 per cent less voter turnout than the state had witnessed in the 2017 assembly election.
The BJP’s seats have increased whenever the polling percentage has increased in any assembly election. Conversely, the party has shed seats whenever the polling percentage has fallen.
However, the only exception to this was seen in 2012 when the polling percentage jumped to its highest ever but the BJP’s seat was reduced. The loss was of just 2 seats though.
Going by the aggregate of the exit polls for the Gujarat assembly election, 2022 may turn out to be another year of exception. The aggregate gives 132 out of 182 seats to the BJP, 38 to the Congress and 8 to the debutant AAP.
The BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah, emphasise on higher turnout in every election because it suits the party.
The BJP’s refrain for the election has been “Pehle matdaan, phir jal-paan (First voting, then breakfast)”.
As the voting percentage increased from 1980 onwards, the BJP has benefitted from every election, barring in 2012.
1980
The voter turnout in the 1980 Gujarat assembly election was 48.37 per cent.
The Congress won 141 of the 182 seats in the assembly. Madhavsinh Solanki took over as the chief minister of the state. The Janata Party (JP) [JNP (JP)] was in power in the state from 1977 till election was held after a spell of President’s Rule when the Janata Party government lost in the 1980 Lok Sabha election. The Janata Party won just 21 seats.
It was in 1980 that the BJP was founded. In its first assembly election in Gujarat, the BJP won just 9 seats, its lowest tally so far in the nine assembly elections it has contested in the state so far till 2017.
1985
The polling percentage increased very marginally from 48.37 in 1980 to 48.82 in 1985.
The Congress won by registering victory on 149 seats.
Madhavsinh Solanki retained the CM’s post. However, he could remain in the chair for just about four months. He was replaced with Amarsinh Chaudhary in July 1985.
However, in a turn of fate, Solanki was brought back as CM in December 1989 for about three months till election was held early next year.
The Janta Party (JNP) came a distant second by winning just 14 seats.
The Janta Party was followed closely by the BJP whose seats increased from 9 in 1980 to 11 in 1985.
1990
The polling percentage improved slightly to 52.20 from 48.82 in 1985.
The 1990 election threw up a hung assembly with Janata Dal (JD) winning 70 seats.
Chimanbhai Patel took over as CM. However, he was replaced with Chhabildas Mehta of the Congress in February 1994. Mehta was the CM for about a year.
The BJP emerged as the second largest party by winning 67 seats. The Congress, at 33 seats, came on the third spot in a state which it had ruled for the most part. It has failed to come back to power in 32 years.
1995
The voter turnout in 1995 improved substantially to 64.39 per cent from 52.20 per cent in 1990.
The BJP won 121 seats. It got a majority on its own for the first time. Keshubhai Patel took over as the CM in March 1995.
However, he was succeeded by Suresh Mehta in October 1995. The state witnessed another spell of instability after Shankersinh Vaghela rebelled against the BJP. President’s Rule was imposed in the state in September 1996 for about a month. That was the last time when the state came under President’s Rule.
Vaghela formed his own Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) and took over as CM in October 1996 for a year. He was succeeded by Dilip Parikh of RJP itself in October 1997. Parekh remained in chair for six months before the government fell. The Congress won 45 seats in 1995.
1998
The polling percentage reduced to 59.30 from 64.39 in the 1995 assembly election. And so did the BJP’s seats. The BJP won 117 seats as against 121 in 1995. Keshubhai Patel took over as CM in March 1998.
However, Patel was replaced with Narendra Modi in October 2001 following allegations of irregularities and poor governance. The Congress was victorious on 53 seats.
2002
The polling percentage in 2002 improved by 2 per cent to 61.54 from 59.30 in 1998.
The BJP’s seats also improved by 10 seats to 127 and Modi retained the CM’s chair.
The Congress won 51 seats.
2007
The voting percentage in 2007 fell to 59.77 from 61.54 in 2002. The BJP’s seats were down by 10 to 117 under Modi who took oath as CM for the third time.
Congress, on the other hand, won 59 seats.
2012
At 71.30 per cent, Gujarat registered the highest voter turnout since 1980.
However, as the only exception since 1985, the BJP’s seats reduced even though the polling percentage witnessed a jump. The BJP won 115 seats, down 2 seats from the 117 seats it had won in 2007.
Modi continued as the CM. However, the BJP won the 2014 Lok Sabha election and Modi became the prime minister. Anandiben Patel succeeded Modi in May 2014.
However, in the midst of the Patidar agitation, she Anandiben Patel was replaced with Vijay Rupani in August 2016.
The Congress won 61 seats in 2012.
2017
The voter turnout fell by 2.29 per cent to 69.01 in 2017 from 71.30 per cent in 2012.
It was the first election with Modi as the PM. The BJP set a target of winning 150 seats.
However, the ruling party witnessed the largest loss of seats between two elections. It won 99 seats, down by 16 seats from 115 it had won in 2012.
Though Rupani was retained as CM, he was replaced with Bhupendra Patel in September 2021 after the state witnessed alleged mismanagement during Covid-19.
The Congress improved its tally to 77, the highest it won since losing power in 1990.
YEAR-WISE DEVELOPMENTS
1995: The stars of the year and their later rise
Nov 27, 2022: The Times of India
From: Nov 27, 2022: The Times of India
VIPUL CHAUDHARY: Chaudhary, a first-time MLA in 1995, sided with Shankersinh Vaghela, who staged a revolt against Keshubhai Patel that year. When Vaghela was sworn in as CM in 1996, he was made MoS home. He later parted ways with Vaghela and became chairman of Dudhsagar dairy between 2006 and 2016. He joined the BJP before the 2007 assembly poll and was given a ticket from the Bhiloda seat. He recently formed the Arbuda Sena as a political front against the BJP. He was arrested in September for allegedly siphoning off Rs 750 crore during his tenure as dairy chairman
ANANDI PATEL: In 1995, Patel was a Rajya Sabha MP. She contested her first assembly election in 1998 and won three more assembly polls. She held important portfolios in consecutive state governments. After Narendra Modi became the PM in 2014, she was made CM but was replaced in 2016. She has since been governor in MP and UP CHHABILDAS MEHTA: Having preceded Keshubhai Patel as CM, Mehta continued with the Congress until 2001, when he quit and joined the NCP. He contested the election and lost. He died of an illness in November 2008 PRAMOD MAHAJAN: A prominent organizational man in the BJP, Mahajan was named defence minister in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s first 13-day government in 1996. When the BJP rode back to power in 1998, he became the advisor to the PM and later handled portfolios like I&B, parliamentary affairs and water resources in the Union government. He was appointed communications minister in 2001 and was entrusted with implementing the new telecom policy. In April 2006, he was shot dead by his estranged brother
SOMA KOLI PATEL: Was the BJP Surendranagar MP when Keshubhai Patel was sworn in as CM in 1995. He quit the BJP and won the seat on a Congress ticket in 2009. He won on a Congress ticket from the Limbdi seat in the 2012 and 2017 Gujarat assembly elections but quit the Congress in 2020 to join the BJP
SHANKERSINH VAGHELA: Within a year of Keshubhai Patel’s swearing-in, Vaghela orchestrated a revolt within the BJP. He subsequently became the CM in 1996 and merged his political outfit with the Congress. He was a Union minister in Manmohan Singh’s first stint as PM. He quit the Congress in 2017 and formed his own political outfit
LAL KRISHNA ADVANI: Advani was elected as MP from the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha seat in the 1998 Lok Sabha election and remained an MP for five consecutive terms (up to 2019). He became the Union home minister in 1998. Later, in 2002, he was chosen as the deputy prime minister. Following the BJP’s defeat in the 2004 general election, he became the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha. The BJP patriarch faded out from the political limelight after 2019
NARENDRA MODI: In 1995, when the BJP first rode to power in Gujarat with a majority of 121 seats, Narendra Modi was an office-bearer of the state BJP outfit. The success boosted his visibility and he was appointed as the BJP national secretary soon. He became the national general secretary in 1998, a position he held until 2001 when he was sworn in as the Gujarat chief minister for the first time. The BJP won 2002, 2007, and 2012 assembly elections under his leadership as CM. He took oath as the prime minister after the 2014 general election and is now in his second term as the PM
BHAIRON SINGH SHEKHAWAT: In 1995, BJP leader Bhairon Singh Shekhawat was the Rajasthan chief minister. He was elected the vice president of India in 2002 when he defeated the opposition candidate, Sushil Kumar Shinde. In 2007, he contested the Presidential election but lost to Pratibha Patil. He succumbed to health-related problems in May 2010
2021
Sept: Rupani quits as CM
Sep 12, 2021: The Times of India
In an abrupt move, Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani resigned on Saturday, becoming the fifth leader to leave the top post in a BJP-governed state in six months. Rupani’s exit came after helming the state for five years and 36 days, and with just over a year to go for the assembly polls. His departure, just like his elevation to CM, was swift and decisive.
BJP legislators have been summoned to Gandhinagar to elect a new leader.
Rupani’s predecessor, Anandiben Patel, the first woman CM of Gujarat, had succeeded Narendra Modi after he became PM in 2014. She quit on August 1, 2016, following the violent Patidar quota stir and the Dalit agitation that erupted after the lynching of four young men in Una.
Unlike Anandiben’s case, Rupani’s exit was without acrimony. However, observers say that his soft-spoken demeanour and feeble hold over bureaucrats resulted in a strong undercurrent of anger among the people during the second Covid-19 wave.
No minister from Rupani cabinet in new ministry
Parth Shastri, Sep 16, 2021: The Times of India
GANDHINAGAR: A total of 24 ministers in the newly-formed cabinet of CM Bhupendra Patel took oath at Raj Bhavan in Gandhinagar on Thursday afternoon. The BJP high command put the ‘No Repeat’ theory, as none of the ministers from Vijay Rupani cabinet got a berth in the ministry. Majority of the ministers are fresh faces, said political observers.
Gujarat governor Acharya Devvrat got the ministers to take oath of their positions in presence of former CM Vijay Rupani, deputy CM Nitin Patel, state BJP president CR Paatil, state BJP in-charge Bhupender Yadav and observer BL Santosh.
The ministry has 10 cabinet ministers including Rajendra Trivedi, Jitu Vaghani, Rushikesh Patel, Raghavji Patel, Purnesh Modi, Kanubhai Desai, Kiritsinh Rana, Naresh Patel, Pradipsinh Parmar, and Arjunsinh Chauhan.
Moreover, five Ministers of State (MoS) or junior ministers would have independent charges. These ministers include Harsh Sanghvi, Jagdish Panchal, Brijesh Merja, Jitu Chaudhari, and Manisha Vakil.
The MoS in the cabinet include Mukesh Patel, Nimisha Suthar, Arvind Raiyani, Kuber Dindor, Kirtisinh Vaghela, Rajendrasinh Parmar, Raghavji Makwana, Vinod Moradiya, and Devabhai Malam.
The new cabinet would meet for the first time at Swarnim Sankul at 4pm which would be chaired by CM Patel. The ministers are likely to get the portfolios during the meeting. Nimaben Acharya is named as pro-tem speaker after the resignation of Rajendra Trivedi.
Primary analysis of the new cabinet points at three cabinet and four MoS from central and south Gujarat and Saurashtra regions, and one cabinet and two MoS from north Gujarat.
The event was marked by the presence of several former ministers amid speculations of dissent within the party ranks due to the cabinet reshuffle. The celebrations started across Gujarat by the supporters of ministers after the oath-taking ceremony.
