The 18th Lok Sabha (2024- ): trends
This is a collection of articles archived for the excellence of their content. |
Contents |
Seats won by the various political parties (number)
From: June 5, 2024: The Times of India
From: June 5, 2024: The Times of India
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The number of seats won by the various political parties in 2024
The number of seats and percentage of votes won by the BJP and Congress in 2019 and 2024
Victory margins of prominent winners
From: June 5, 2024: The Times of India
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Victory margins of prominent winners, 2024
Election campaign
Pollspeak and rallies
From: June 5, 2024: The Times of India
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An analysis of Narendra Modi's election campaign speeches, rallies and roadshows, No. of constituencies covered, May 16- May 30, 2024
Muslims
Candidates
Lalmani Verma, May 20, 2024: The Indian Express
While the BJP has fielded one Muslim candidate in the ongoing general elections, and its ally JD(U) one more in Bihar, among the key Opposition parties too, the representation to the community has fallen. The Congress, Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, RJD, NCP and CPI(M) have fielded 78 Muslim candidates this time, down from 115 in 2019.
The BSP has fielded 35 Muslim candidates in 2024, the highest among all parties; of these, more than half (17) in Uttar Pradesh, apart from four in Madhya Pradesh, three each in Bihar and Delhi, two in Uttarakhand, and oe each in Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Telangana and Gujarat.
This is only a marginal drop from 2019, when the BSP fielded 39 Muslim candidates, of whom three won, in an election that it fought in alliance with the Samajwadi Party. However, at 35 now, the BSP count is almost half the number of Muslim candidates it fielded in 2014 – 61, of whom none won. It contested 503 seats in 2014, against 424 now.
While the BSP has 17 Muslim candidates in UP this time, in 2019, it had put up only six in the state, with partner SP the bigger claimant of the Muslim vote bank.
The INDIA bloc parties, which include the Congress and SP, have accused the BSP of fielding Muslim candidates strategically in UP this time to cut into their share and help the BJP.
The Congress comes next, with 19 Muslim candidates in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, with the largest number in West Bengal at six, followed by two each in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar and UP, and one each in Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, Telangana and Lakshadweep.
In 2019, the party, which has been a target of BJP attacks over “minority appeasement” in the ongoing elections, fielded 34 Muslim candidates, 10 of them in Bengal and 8 in UP. Of them, four won. But the Congress is also contesting nearly 100 seats less than 2019, down from 421 then to 328 in 2024.
In 2014, the Congress fielded almost the same number of Muslim candidates, 31, with three winning, when it contested 464 seats.
The TMC has the third highest number of Muslim candidates in the fray this time, six, of whom it has fielded five in its home state, Bengal. It has also fielded one Muslim candidate in Assam.
In 2019, the TMC fielded 13 Muslim candidates across the states of West Bengal, Odisha, Tripura, Assam and Bihar, with most of them in Bengal. Of them, four won. In 2014, however, three years after coming to power in West Bengal, the TMC fielded as many as 24 Muslim candidates, of whom three won.
But the number of Lok Sabha seats contested by the TMC has been falling, from 131 to 62 to 48, over the past three general elections.
Notwithstanding the strong support it enjoys from the community, the SP has fielded only four Muslim candidates this time. This is half the number in 2019, of whom three won; and nearly a tenth of the number it fielded in 2014, 39, of whom none won.
While the SP contested 197 seats in 2014, it fielded only 49 in 2019 and has 71 in the fray this time.
Of the SP’s Muslim candidates now, three are contesting from UP, while the fourth has been fielded from Andhra Pradesh, where the party has nominated a couple of Yadav candidates too. The SP has even dropped one of its sitting Muslim MPs in UP, Moradabad’s S T Hasan, to put up a Hindu candidate, Ruchi Veera. The BSP made it a campaign issue in the constituency.
While the SP fielded three Muslim candidates in 2019 from Maharashtra, it is not contesting this time in the state, with its leaders campaigning for the party’s INDIA bloc partners.
The RJD, another party with a Muslim-Yadav vote bank, has fielded two Muslims in Bihar this time, against five in 2019, of whom none won. In 2014, it fielded six Muslim candidates, and one won.
The RJD is contesting more seats in Bihar this time compared to five years ago as part of the Mahagathbandhan alliance (23 now vs 19 in 2019).
The NCP fielded three Muslim candidates in 2019, of whom one won. This time, the two factions of the party – NCP and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) – have fielded one Muslim candidate each, both in Lakshadweep. Mohammed Faizal P P of the NCP, who defeated the Congress’s Hamdullah Sayeed by a thin margin of 823 votes in 2019, is contesting in 2024 on the symbol of NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar).
In 2014, the NCP fielded three Muslim candidates, and two won. In 2019, the BJP fielded three Muslim candidates across 436 seats, of whom none won. In 2014, it fielded seven Muslim candidates across the 428 seats it contested, again with none winning. This time, the BJP is contesting from 440 seats, with one Muslim candidate.
The CPI and CPI(M) collectively fielded 13 Muslim candidates in 2019, including seven in West Bengal and 1 each in Lakshadweep and Kerala. Of them, one won. In 2014, they fielded 17 Muslim candidates together, of whom two won.
In 2024, only the CPI(M) fielded Muslims, 10 in all, including five in Bengal, four in Kerala and one in Telangana.
Among smaller parties, the AIMIM, IUML and AIUDF, seen to essentially represent Muslim interests, have fielded candidates from the community in a few Muslim-dominated constituencies, across different states.
Keeping aside J&K, the maximum Muslim candidates are contesting in UP (22), followed by West Bengal (17), Bihar (seven), Kerala (six) and Madhya Pradesh (four). Assam, among the highest in terms of share of Muslims in the population, has three Muslim candidates, down from four last time.
Asked about the SP fielding half the number of Muslim candidates it had in 2019, spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary said: “The party preferred non-Muslim and non-Yadav candidates this time to give representation to other communities and castes.”
Elected
Rounak Bagchi, June 5, 2024: The Indian Express
In 2019, only 26 Muslim candidates were elected as Members of Parliament, four belonging to the Congress and TMC each, three from the BSP and SP each, and one each of the NCP and CPI(M).
Of the 78 Muslim candidates who contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, only 24 have managed to win across the country, a number that keeps going down over the years.
In 2019, only 26 Muslim candidates were elected as Members of Parliament, four belonging to the Congress and TMC each, three from the BSP and SP each, and one each of the NCP and CPI(M).
This year, Congress candidate Imran Masood from Saharanpur won by a margin of 64,542 votes while Iqra Choudhary, a 29-year-old Samajwadi Party candidate from Kairana, secured victory over BJP Pradeep Kumar by 69,116 votes.
Ghazipur saw SP veteran Afzal Ansari go past the BJP’s Pars Nath Rai, securing a lakh more votes than his rival, while AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi retained his Hyderabad seat by a margin of 3,38,087 votes over his nearest rival BJP’s Madhavi Latha Kompella. In Ladakh, Independent candidate Mohammad Haneefa secured a victory by a margin of 27,862 votes while another Independent candidate Abdul Rashid Sheikh, aka Engineer Rashid, won the Jammu and Kashmir’s Baramulla seat, bagging 4.7 lakh votes.
In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party’s Mohibbullah won the Rampur seat by securing 4,81,503 votes, while Zia Ur Rehman won in Sambhal by a margin of 1.2 lakh votes. Mian Altaf Ahmad of the National Conference won in Jammu and Kahsmir’s Anantnag-Rajouri seat by 2,81,794 votes against former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti. In Srinagar NC candidate Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi secured 3,56,866 votes.
In West Bengal’s Baharampur seat, first-time contender Yusuf Pathan pulled off an upset by beating Congress veteran and six-time MP Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury by 85,022 votes. In the Basirhat constituency, under which Sandeshkhali falls, TMC’s Haji Nurul Islam defeated BJP candidate Rekha Patra by nearly two lakh votes. In Uluberia, too, TMC’s Sajda Ahmed went past BJP’s Arunuday Paulchowdhury by a margin of over two lakh votes. In Jangipur, the Trinamool’s Khalilur Rahaman went past Congress’s Murtoja Hossain Bokul by over 1 lakh votes.
Murshidabad also saw the TMC dominate with Abu Taher Khan going past CPI(M)’s Md Salim by over a lakh votes. In Maldaha West, the Congress’s Isha Khan Choudhary defeated the BJP’s Sreerupa Mitra Choudhary by a margin of 1.2 lakh votes. In Lakshadweep, Congress’s Muhammed Hamdullah Sayeed scraped through, going past Mohammed Faizal PP of the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) by just 2,000 votes.
The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML’s) Navaskani K also secured a victory in Tamil Nadu’s Ramanathapuram. In Kerala’s Ponnani, IUML’s Dr M P Abdussamad Samadani defeated CPI(M)’s K.S Hamza. The Congress’s Shafi Parambil, in Vadakara, defeated CPI(M)’s Shailaja Teacher by a margin of over a lakh votes. IUML also managed to win the Malappuram constituency, where E T Mohammed Basheer defeated CPI(M)’s V Vaseef by over 3 lakh votes.
In Bihar, the Congress’s Tariq Anwar won from Katihar, going past Janta Dal (United)’s Dulal Chandra Goswami by a margin of almost 50,000 votes. In Kishanganj, the Congress’s Mohammad Jawed defeated JD(U)’s Mujahid Alam by almost 60,000 votes.
In Assam’s Dhubri constituency, the bastion of AIUDF, Badruddin Ajmal fell short of Congress’s Rakibul Hussain.
This year, the BSP fielded 35 Muslim candidates, the highest among all parties. Of these, more than half (17) were in Uttar Pradesh, apart from four in Madhya Pradesh, three each in Bihar and Delhi, two in Uttarakhand, and one each in Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Telangana and Gujarat.
The Congress comes next, with 19 Muslim candidates, with the largest number in West Bengal at six, followed by two each in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar and UP, and one each in Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, Telangana and Lakshadweep. The TMC has the third highest number of Muslim candidates in the fray this time, six, of whom it has fielded five in its home state, Bengal. It has also fielded one Muslim candidate in Assam.
Of the SP’s Muslim candidates now, three are contesting from UP, while the fourth has been fielded from Andhra Pradesh. The SP has even dropped one of its sitting Muslim MPs in UP, Moradabad’s S T Hasan, to put up a Hindu candidate, Ruchi Veera.
Keeping aside J&K, the maximum Muslim candidates are contesting in UP (22), followed by West Bengal (17), Bihar (seven), Kerala (six) and Madhya Pradesh (four). Assam, among the highest in terms of share of Muslims in the population, has three Muslim candidates, down from four last time.
