The 18th Lok Sabha (2024- ): trends
This is a collection of articles archived for the excellence of their content. |
Contents |
Seats won by the various political parties (number)
From: June 5, 2024: The Times of India
From: June 5, 2024: The Times of India
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The number of seats won by the various political parties in 2024
The number of seats and percentage of votes won by the BJP and Congress in 2019 and 2024
Victory margins of prominent winners
From: June 5, 2024: The Times of India
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Victory margins of prominent winners, 2024
Election campaign
Pollspeak and rallies
From: June 5, 2024: The Times of India
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An analysis of Narendra Modi's election campaign speeches, rallies and roadshows, No. of constituencies covered, May 16- May 30, 2024
Muslims
Candidates
Lalmani Verma, May 20, 2024: The Indian Express
While the BJP has fielded one Muslim candidate in the ongoing general elections, and its ally JD(U) one more in Bihar, among the key Opposition parties too, the representation to the community has fallen. The Congress, Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, RJD, NCP and CPI(M) have fielded 78 Muslim candidates this time, down from 115 in 2019.
The BSP has fielded 35 Muslim candidates in 2024, the highest among all parties; of these, more than half (17) in Uttar Pradesh, apart from four in Madhya Pradesh, three each in Bihar and Delhi, two in Uttarakhand, and oe each in Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Telangana and Gujarat.
This is only a marginal drop from 2019, when the BSP fielded 39 Muslim candidates, of whom three won, in an election that it fought in alliance with the Samajwadi Party. However, at 35 now, the BSP count is almost half the number of Muslim candidates it fielded in 2014 – 61, of whom none won. It contested 503 seats in 2014, against 424 now.
While the BSP has 17 Muslim candidates in UP this time, in 2019, it had put up only six in the state, with partner SP the bigger claimant of the Muslim vote bank.
The INDIA bloc parties, which include the Congress and SP, have accused the BSP of fielding Muslim candidates strategically in UP this time to cut into their share and help the BJP.
The Congress comes next, with 19 Muslim candidates in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, with the largest number in West Bengal at six, followed by two each in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar and UP, and one each in Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, Telangana and Lakshadweep.
In 2019, the party, which has been a target of BJP attacks over “minority appeasement” in the ongoing elections, fielded 34 Muslim candidates, 10 of them in Bengal and 8 in UP. Of them, four won. But the Congress is also contesting nearly 100 seats less than 2019, down from 421 then to 328 in 2024.
In 2014, the Congress fielded almost the same number of Muslim candidates, 31, with three winning, when it contested 464 seats.
The TMC has the third highest number of Muslim candidates in the fray this time, six, of whom it has fielded five in its home state, Bengal. It has also fielded one Muslim candidate in Assam.
In 2019, the TMC fielded 13 Muslim candidates across the states of West Bengal, Odisha, Tripura, Assam and Bihar, with most of them in Bengal. Of them, four won. In 2014, however, three years after coming to power in West Bengal, the TMC fielded as many as 24 Muslim candidates, of whom three won.
But the number of Lok Sabha seats contested by the TMC has been falling, from 131 to 62 to 48, over the past three general elections.
Notwithstanding the strong support it enjoys from the community, the SP has fielded only four Muslim candidates this time. This is half the number in 2019, of whom three won; and nearly a tenth of the number it fielded in 2014, 39, of whom none won.
While the SP contested 197 seats in 2014, it fielded only 49 in 2019 and has 71 in the fray this time.
Of the SP’s Muslim candidates now, three are contesting from UP, while the fourth has been fielded from Andhra Pradesh, where the party has nominated a couple of Yadav candidates too. The SP has even dropped one of its sitting Muslim MPs in UP, Moradabad’s S T Hasan, to put up a Hindu candidate, Ruchi Veera. The BSP made it a campaign issue in the constituency.
While the SP fielded three Muslim candidates in 2019 from Maharashtra, it is not contesting this time in the state, with its leaders campaigning for the party’s INDIA bloc partners.
The RJD, another party with a Muslim-Yadav vote bank, has fielded two Muslims in Bihar this time, against five in 2019, of whom none won. In 2014, it fielded six Muslim candidates, and one won.
The RJD is contesting more seats in Bihar this time compared to five years ago as part of the Mahagathbandhan alliance (23 now vs 19 in 2019).
The NCP fielded three Muslim candidates in 2019, of whom one won. This time, the two factions of the party – NCP and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) – have fielded one Muslim candidate each, both in Lakshadweep. Mohammed Faizal P P of the NCP, who defeated the Congress’s Hamdullah Sayeed by a thin margin of 823 votes in 2019, is contesting in 2024 on the symbol of NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar).
In 2014, the NCP fielded three Muslim candidates, and two won. In 2019, the BJP fielded three Muslim candidates across 436 seats, of whom none won. In 2014, it fielded seven Muslim candidates across the 428 seats it contested, again with none winning. This time, the BJP is contesting from 440 seats, with one Muslim candidate.
The CPI and CPI(M) collectively fielded 13 Muslim candidates in 2019, including seven in West Bengal and 1 each in Lakshadweep and Kerala. Of them, one won. In 2014, they fielded 17 Muslim candidates together, of whom two won.
In 2024, only the CPI(M) fielded Muslims, 10 in all, including five in Bengal, four in Kerala and one in Telangana.
Among smaller parties, the AIMIM, IUML and AIUDF, seen to essentially represent Muslim interests, have fielded candidates from the community in a few Muslim-dominated constituencies, across different states.
Keeping aside J&K, the maximum Muslim candidates are contesting in UP (22), followed by West Bengal (17), Bihar (seven), Kerala (six) and Madhya Pradesh (four). Assam, among the highest in terms of share of Muslims in the population, has three Muslim candidates, down from four last time.
Asked about the SP fielding half the number of Muslim candidates it had in 2019, spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary said: “The party preferred non-Muslim and non-Yadav candidates this time to give representation to other communities and castes.”
Elected
Rounak Bagchi, June 5, 2024: The Indian Express
In 2019, only 26 Muslim candidates were elected as Members of Parliament, four belonging to the Congress and TMC each, three from the BSP and SP each, and one each of the NCP and CPI(M).
Of the 78 Muslim candidates who contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, only 24 have managed to win across the country, a number that keeps going down over the years.
In 2019, only 26 Muslim candidates were elected as Members of Parliament, four belonging to the Congress and TMC each, three from the BSP and SP each, and one each of the NCP and CPI(M).
This year, Congress candidate Imran Masood from Saharanpur won by a margin of 64,542 votes while Iqra Choudhary, a 29-year-old Samajwadi Party candidate from Kairana, secured victory over BJP Pradeep Kumar by 69,116 votes.
Ghazipur saw SP veteran Afzal Ansari go past the BJP’s Pars Nath Rai, securing a lakh more votes than his rival, while AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi retained his Hyderabad seat by a margin of 3,38,087 votes over his nearest rival BJP’s Madhavi Latha Kompella. In Ladakh, Independent candidate Mohammad Haneefa secured a victory by a margin of 27,862 votes while another Independent candidate Abdul Rashid Sheikh, aka Engineer Rashid, won the Jammu and Kashmir’s Baramulla seat, bagging 4.7 lakh votes.
In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party’s Mohibbullah won the Rampur seat by securing 4,81,503 votes, while Zia Ur Rehman won in Sambhal by a margin of 1.2 lakh votes. Mian Altaf Ahmad of the National Conference won in Jammu and Kahsmir’s Anantnag-Rajouri seat by 2,81,794 votes against former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Mehbooba Mufti. In Srinagar NC candidate Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi secured 3,56,866 votes.
In West Bengal’s Baharampur seat, first-time contender Yusuf Pathan pulled off an upset by beating Congress veteran and six-time MP Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury by 85,022 votes. In the Basirhat constituency, under which Sandeshkhali falls, TMC’s Haji Nurul Islam defeated BJP candidate Rekha Patra by nearly two lakh votes. In Uluberia, too, TMC’s Sajda Ahmed went past BJP’s Arunuday Paulchowdhury by a margin of over two lakh votes. In Jangipur, the Trinamool’s Khalilur Rahaman went past Congress’s Murtoja Hossain Bokul by over 1 lakh votes.
Murshidabad also saw the TMC dominate with Abu Taher Khan going past CPI(M)’s Md Salim by over a lakh votes. In Maldaha West, the Congress’s Isha Khan Choudhary defeated the BJP’s Sreerupa Mitra Choudhary by a margin of 1.2 lakh votes. In Lakshadweep, Congress’s Muhammed Hamdullah Sayeed scraped through, going past Mohammed Faizal PP of the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) by just 2,000 votes.
The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML’s) Navaskani K also secured a victory in Tamil Nadu’s Ramanathapuram. In Kerala’s Ponnani, IUML’s Dr M P Abdussamad Samadani defeated CPI(M)’s K.S Hamza. The Congress’s Shafi Parambil, in Vadakara, defeated CPI(M)’s Shailaja Teacher by a margin of over a lakh votes. IUML also managed to win the Malappuram constituency, where E T Mohammed Basheer defeated CPI(M)’s V Vaseef by over 3 lakh votes.
In Bihar, the Congress’s Tariq Anwar won from Katihar, going past Janta Dal (United)’s Dulal Chandra Goswami by a margin of almost 50,000 votes. In Kishanganj, the Congress’s Mohammad Jawed defeated JD(U)’s Mujahid Alam by almost 60,000 votes.
In Assam’s Dhubri constituency, the bastion of AIUDF, Badruddin Ajmal fell short of Congress’s Rakibul Hussain.
This year, the BSP fielded 35 Muslim candidates, the highest among all parties. Of these, more than half (17) were in Uttar Pradesh, apart from four in Madhya Pradesh, three each in Bihar and Delhi, two in Uttarakhand, and one each in Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Telangana and Gujarat.
The Congress comes next, with 19 Muslim candidates, with the largest number in West Bengal at six, followed by two each in Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar and UP, and one each in Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, Telangana and Lakshadweep. The TMC has the third highest number of Muslim candidates in the fray this time, six, of whom it has fielded five in its home state, Bengal. It has also fielded one Muslim candidate in Assam.
Of the SP’s Muslim candidates now, three are contesting from UP, while the fourth has been fielded from Andhra Pradesh. The SP has even dropped one of its sitting Muslim MPs in UP, Moradabad’s S T Hasan, to put up a Hindu candidate, Ruchi Veera.
Keeping aside J&K, the maximum Muslim candidates are contesting in UP (22), followed by West Bengal (17), Bihar (seven), Kerala (six) and Madhya Pradesh (four). Assam, among the highest in terms of share of Muslims in the population, has three Muslim candidates, down from four last time.
Defectors’ fates
From: June 5, 2024: The Times of India
See graphic:
The fate of prominent defectors in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections
Details
Deeptiman Tiwary, June 8, 2024: The Indian Express
From Yamini Jadhav of the Shiv Sena Shinde faction in Maharashtra to BJP’s Tapas Roy in West Bengal, from Pradeep Yadav of the Congress in Jharkhand to BJP’s Jyothi Mirdha in Rajasthan, nine of the 13 turncoat candidates or their family members being probed by investigative agencies, lost in the Lok Sabha elections whose results were declared Tuesday (June 4).
Of these nine who lost, as many as seven belonged to the BJP or its allies. There were more than 150 turncoats — politicians who shifted from one political party to another — in the fray in the elections that concluded on Saturday. Of these, 13 candidates or their family members are facing probes either by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the Income Tax Department or the Enforcement Directorate (ED).
Of the 13, eight had switched sides to the BJP — seven from Congress and one from Trinamool Congress; two had switched sides to the Shiv Sena Shinde faction from the Shiv Sena, one switched to TDP from YSRCP; and two to Congress from the Jharkhand Vikas Party and PEP, respectively.
Of the eight under agency scanner who joined the BJP, six lost the polls; of the two who joined Sena’s Shinde faction, one lost; and one each from the Jharkhand Vikas Party and PEP who had joined the Congress also lost.
Among the prominent turncoats who lost are Jyoti Mirdha from Nagaur in Rajasthan; Kripashankar Singh from Jaunpur in UP; Roy from Kolkata Uttar; Kothapalli Geeta from Araku in Andhra Pradesh; Preneet Kaur from Patiala; and Geeta Koda from Singhbhum in Jharkhand.
From the Shiv Sena Shinde faction, Yamini Jadhav lost the polls from Mumbai South, while from Congress Pradeep Yadav lost from Godda in Jharkhand.
Former Congress leader Jyoti Mirdha had joined the BJP in September, 2023, with about six months to go for the Lok Sabha polls. Months earlier, the Enforcement Directorate had initiated a probe against Indiabulls based on a complaint by the Shipra Group. Indiabulls is run by Mirdha’s in-laws—Indiabulls promoter Sameer Gehlaut is the brother of Mirdha’s husband Narendra Gehlaut.
Former Mumbai Congress chief Kripashankar Singh was facing a probe in a case of disproportionate assets by the Maharashtra Anti Corruption Bureau in 2012. The ED initiated a probe based on the ACB case. In February 2018, Singh was discharged by a court because of lack of sanction. In 2019, he resigned from the Congress and joined the BJP in 2021.
The Enforcement Directorate raided the residence of Trinamool chief whip in West Bengal Assembly in January this year in connection with a case of money laundering concerning alleged irregularities in civic body recruitments. Early March, Tapas Roy joined the BJP and was fielded from Kolkata Uttar by the BJP. However, he lost to TMC’s Sudeep Bandopadhyay.
In the 2019 polls, Geeta Koda, wife of former Jharkhand CM Madhu Koda, was the only Congress candidate who won from the state. As her husband stands convicted in one of the many cases registered against him by the CBI and ED and probes in others continue, she joined the BJP in February this year and was fielded from her stronghold Singhbhum. She, however, lost to the JMM candidate.
In Andhra Pradesh, former YSRCP MP Kothapalli Geetha and her husband P Ramakoteswara Rao were booked and chargesheeted by CBI in 2015 for allegedly duping the Punjab National Bank by defaulting on a Rs 42-crore loan they got by misrepresenting facts.
In July 2019, Geetha joined the BJP. But in September 2022, she was convicted by the trial court and sentenced to five years imprisonment along with her husband. They were both arrested by the CBI. The couple soon got relief with the Telangana HC not only granting them bail but also suspending the sentence. However, since the conviction continued to stand, Geetha could not contest.
On March 12, Telangana HC cleared the way by staying the conviction as well. On March 28, BJP announced she was the party candidate from Araku constituency. She, however, lost the polls to YSRCP’s Gumma Rani.
Former Congress leader and Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh’s wife Preneet Kaur was fielded by the BJP from Patiala. Their son Raninder Singh came under the ED scanner in 2020 in connection with a case of forex violations. In November, 2021 Amarinder Singh quit the Congress. The very next year he joined the BJP. Kaur stood third behind Congress’s Dharamvir Gandhi and AAP’s Balbir Singh.
In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena’s Yamini Jadhav had walked out of the party to join the Eknath Shinde faction in June, 2022, toppling the Uddhav Thackeray government in the state. Yamini along with her husband Yashwant Jadhav was then facing ED investigations in multiple cases. Yamini was fielded from Mumbai South by the NDA in these polls but lost to Shiv Sena UBT’s Arvind Sawant.
Shiv Sena veteran Ravindra Waikar had stuck with Uddhav Thackeray during the political upheaval in Maharashtra in June 2022. However, the new Eknath Shinde-led NDA government in Maharashtra soon opened a probe against him by Mumbai police’s economic offences wing which was followed by an ED probe. This March, Waikar walked into the Shinde camp saying he had to make a choice between going to jail and switching parties. He was fielded from Mumbai North West and barely scraped through, winning by just 48 votes.
Congress’s Pradeep Yadav, who contested from Jharkhand, had no such luck. Raided by ED last year, he lost the polls to BJP’s Nishikant Dubey. He had moved to Congress from JVP. Congress candidate from Punjab’s Sangrur Sukhpal Singh Khaira, who had joined the party from Punjab Ekta Party, was also facing ED probe but lost.
There were others like Waikar who won despite being under the shadow of agencies and changing sides. Prominent among them was Naveen Jindal, who switched from Congress to the BJP months ahead of polls, winning from the Kurukshetra constituency. Chargesheeted in the coal blocks allocation case, Jindal had been raided by ED in a fresh case months ahead of him joining the BJP.
Similarly, former TDP Rajya Sabha MP CM Ramesh, who had joined the BJP in 2019 following Income Tax raids at the premises of a company associated with him, won from Anakapalle in Andhra Pradesh. Even TDP’s Magunta Srinivasulu Reddy, whose son was arrested by ED in the Delhi excise policy case only to be released after turning approver, won from Ongole.
Independent candidates who won
June 7, 2024: The Indian Express
(Written by Uday Srivastava and Saima Mehta) Seven of the newly-elected Lok Sabha’s 543 members are independents, who defeated candidates from established political parties to enter the House. These include people who were once a part of a major party but fell out, candidates who contested from prison, and grassroots leaders.
Here are their profiles.
1. Amritpal Singh, 31, Khadoor Sahib
Votes Secured: 4,04,430
Margin: 1,97,120
Runner-up: Kulbir Singh Zira (INC)
Amritpal Singh was one of two candidates to have contested, and won, the Lok Sabha elections from prison. He is currently jailed in Dibrugarh, Assam under the National Security Act (NSA) for his pro-Khalistan activism. A clever strategist, Amritpal has built his political career in a short span of time by exploiting the socio-economic landscape of Punjab. Hailing from a well-to-do construction family, he returned from Dubai in 2022, as Punjab simmered in the aftermath of the farmers’ protests.
He took over Deep Sidhu’s Waris Punjab De, an organisation born out of the protests “to fight for the rights of Punjabis,” specifically Sikhs. Amritpal started sporting a turban and grew his beard, and fashioned himself after Khalistani separatist Jarnail Singh Bhinderwale, delivering pro-Khalistani rhetoric laced with comments on pressing local issues such as unemployment and substance abuse.
Amritpal became a cult hero when he and his followers stormed a police station near Amritsar to free some associates. This was followed by an intense manhunt by the Punjab police and central agencies — which only added to his popularity. He was finally arrested in April 2023, and has been in prison since.
He announced his candidacy for the Lok Sabha elections in April. His campaign, run by his parents and loyal core of supporters, focused on tackling substance abuse and unemployment, but toned down his radical rhetoric, which might have alienated some. His anti-substance abuse message and commitment to “Sikh values” helped him stand out against his Congress opponent, Kulbir Singh Zira, who was mired in allegations of liquor extortion.
2. Umeshbhai Babubhai Patel, 47, Daman & Diu
Votes Secured: 42,523
Margin: 6,225
Runner-up: Lalubhai Babubhai Patel (BJP)
Umesh Patel defeated three-time BJP MP Lalu Patel in the Union Territory surrounded by Gujarat. A grassroots leader, Umesh is known for his strong connection to the people of D&D, cultivating trust through rigorous door-to-door campaigns. This allowed him to gain a deep understanding of local issues, and implement localised governance strategy, as well as position him as a people’s person.
“Umeshbhai was all alone campaigning door-to-door. He was always on the road, taking up issues like the rise in the property taxes in the Daman municipality and district panchayats, the rise in power tariffs and privatisation of power, and [unpopular] demolition drives... There was no star campaigner with him, two to three friends accompanied him. His wife and daughter also joined us during the campaign,” a close friend told The Indian Express.
A political science graduate from Mumbai University, Umesh has spent years as a social worker in the territory, working on a host of community projects. He runs the NGO Daman Youth Action Force (DYAF), and has been vociferous against the “dictatorial decisions taken by the administrator of Daman and Diu, and Dadra and Nagar Haveli”. In 2017, he was arrested due to his protests against the Gujarat High Court’s order to merge D&D with its neighbouring state. He also runs a school. Umesh Patel’s localised development manifesto, in comparison to the BJP’s more industrial-oriented vision, propelled him to victory.
3. Mohammad Haneefa, 55, Ladakh
Votes Secured: 65,259
Margin: 37,397
Runner-up: Tsering Namgyal (INC)
Mohammad Haneefa, a National Conference (NC) veteran, contested as an independent in the Lok Sabha elections after his party decided to support the Congress candidate, Tsering Namgyal, in Ladakh. Haneefa believed that Namgyal, who is from Leh, did not represent the interests of Kargil’s Shia community, and thus resigned from NC and ran as an independent.
Free from national aspirations, his agenda focused solely on advocating for local autonomy, ensuring sustainable development, and securing safeguards for Ladakh’s cultural and environmental heritage. He ran his campaign on pressing local issues such as unemployment, land rights, and infrastructure, rather than larger national questions.
He rode to victory on the back of the Buddhist vote in the district getting split between the BJP and Congress candidates, and both the Congress and NC units in the Kargil rebelling in his favour. Observers say that Haneefa’s victory reflects the yearning within Kargil for greater political representation, after MPs in the two previous terms coming from Leh. “One of the reasons representation from Kargil is important this time is because Kargil’s grievances for over a decade have not been given a hearing in Parliament. Whether it is our border issues, education, or closure of roads, it is not discussed anywhere,” Sajjad Kargili, a political activist from Kargil who withdrew his nomination to support Haneefa, had told The Indian Express in May.
4. Pappu Yadav, 56, Purnia
Votes Secured: 5,67,556
Margin: 23,847
Runner-up: Santosh Kumar Kushwaha (JD-U)
Rajesh Ranjan, popularly known as Pappu Yadav, has long been one of Bihar’s biggest political mavericks. Over the years, he has been associated with various parties, Lalu Prasad’s RJD and Ram vilas Paswan’s LJP, as well as Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. He also formed his own party, the Jan Adhikar Party, in 2015 which he merged with the Congress in the leadup to the 2024 polls.
Pappu Yadav had hoped that his grassroots popularity would see him get the INDIA alliance candidature in Purnia. That, however, did not materialise with the RJD refusing to give up the seat. “If you are not supporting Bima Bharati [the RJD candidate], let the JD(U) win,” RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav notably said.
Consequently, Pappu Yadav went alone, cashing in on his image as a political maverick, beholden to no one but the “people”. While the JD(U) welcomed his candidacy as it was seen to be cutting into the RJD’s traditional base of Muslims and Yadavs, Pappu ended up wresting the seat from JD(U) incumbent Santosh Kumer Kushwaha.
Pappu has previously been elected to the Lok Sabha in 1991, 1996, 1999, 2004, and 2014 both as an independent and a member of whichever political party he was with, at the time. Popularly, he is known for social justice advocacy. But he has also been associated with criminal activity in the past. Most notably, he was named a prime accused in the murder of former CPI(M) MLA Ajit Sarkar in 1998, a case which followed him around for the next decade and a half till he was acquitted by the Patna High Court in 2013.
5. Vishal Prakashbapu Patil, 43, Sangli
Votes Secured: 5,71,666
Vote Margin: 1,00,053 votes
Runner-up: Sanjay Kaka Patil (BJP)
Vishal ‘Dada’ Patil, a long-time Congress party worker, contested as an independent after the Sangli seat went to Uddhav Thakrey’s Shiv Sena during alliance negotiations in Maharashtra. After winning the seat, he extended his support to the Congress on Thursday, taking the party’s tally to a neat 100.
The son of former Congress MP Prakashbapu Patil, and grandson of former Maharashtra Chief Minister Vasantdada Patil, Vishal hails from an old Congress family. His candidacy was discretely supported by Congress workers in Sangli, once a Patil bastion, despite the Shiv Sena (UBT) officially being an ally to the party. And in absence of any national pushes and pulls, Patil’s manifesto was highly localised, articulating a clear vision for Sangli;s development.
He pledged to revitalise local agriculture, provide robust support to farmers, and to promote business opportunities to foster economic growth. He also spoke about enhancing infrastructure and public services in the south Maharashtra seat.
The Sangli seat has thus far seen 19 elections, including Lok Sabha bypolls. Of these, two were won by the BJP (2014, 2019) and one by the Peasant and Workers Party (1957). The rest 16 have been won by the Congress. Six members of Vasantdada Patil’s family have won from Sangli, most recently Vishal’s brother Prateek, who was a Minister of State in UPA II.
Vishal Patil defeated sitting BJP MP Sanjay Kaka Patil in 2024 polls.
6. Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, 45, Faridkot (SC)
Votes Secured: 2,98,602
Margin: 49,000
Runner-up: Karamjit Singh Anmol (AAP)
Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, the elder son of Beant Singh, one of Indira Gandhi’s assassins, comfortably defeated Karmjit Anmol, the AAP candidate from Faridkot, and a personal friend of Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.
Given his background, and lack of success previously, his victory raised many an eyebrow. But Sarabjeet’s campaign saw an outpouring of support in the context of Punjab voters’ disillusionment with traditional politics. His campaign focussed on local issues, and challenged Punjab’s political establishment for its failure to tackle economic stagnation in the state, and its crippling drug abuse problem. He took a social justice plank, and promised to enact strict anti-corruption measures.
He also repeatedly invoked his father, and his “lost youth” due to his execution. On October 31, 1984, Beant Singh and another security guard, Satwant Singh, assassinated then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi as revenge for Operation Bluestar, an Indian Army op to flush out Khalistani militants from Amritsar’s Golden Temple. Bluestar left the holy Sikh shrine in ruins, and began a period of militancy in Punjab whose impacts continue to be felt today.
Beant Singh, who was later killed by Indira’s other security personnel, and Satwant Singh have since become martyrs for the Khalistan movement and continue to enjoy deep sympathy among many Sikhs. Their families thus remain relevant in Punjab politics. Satwant Singh’s family too campaigned for Sarabjeet.
Previously, Sarabjeet’s mother Bimal Kaur Khalsa and grandfather Sucha Singh Khalsa became MPs from Ropar and Bathinda Lok Sabha seats on SAD (Amritsar) tickets.
7. Engineer Rashid, 51, Baramulla
Votes Secured: 4,42,481
Margin: 2,04,142
Runner-up: Omar Abdullah (National Conference)
Construction engineer-turned politician Sheikh Abdul Rashid, contested the Lok Sabha elections from prison. Accused of terror-funding, Rashid is currently in Delhi’s Tihar jail on money-laundering charges. His campaign was led by his two sons, and former Congress MLA Shoib Lone, who coined the slogan “jail ka badla vote se” (revenge for imprisonment with votes).
Such was Rashid’s appeal that he defeated J&K heavyweights Omar Abdullah (of NC) and Sajjad Lone (J&K Peeople’s Conference, aligned with the BJP) in what was pegged as a two-way contest. His manifesto contains multiple promises including advocating for social justice and regional development, challenging corruption, promoting transparency, enhancing public services, and addressing local economic challenges.
But at the heart of the campaign was securing Rashid’s release so he could represent his constituents in Baramulla. More than the campaigns run by mainstream parties, Rashid’s tapped into the raw anger against the Centre over the unilateral scrapping of J&K’s special status and stripping of its statehood, followed by a clampdown against voices of dissent.
Rashid is a veteran political activist. He won the Langate assembly constituency as an independent in both the 2008 and 2014 legislative assembly elections, and later established the Jammu and Kashmir Awami Ittehad Party. He is known for his being an outspoken critic of the Indian government, and managed to garner votes from Kashmiris who would otherwise boycott the election. In 2015, Rashid grabbed national headlines when he threw a “beef party” to protest against the Centre’s beef ban, resulting in him being attacked by BJP workers.
Postal ballots: 2024 vis-à-vis 2019
In the four states that are going to elections in 2024, including Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir for which polls have been announced, and Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the BJP’s share in the total postal ballots cast fell between the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Though the postal ballot facility is also provided to senior citizens and persons with disabilities, a substantial number of voters are government servants on election duty or employed in essential services or posted out of place where they are registered as voters, including the defence forces.
Haryana
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had swept Haryana, winning all its 10 parliamentary seats. Of the total 53,689 postal ballots in the state, the BJP had got an overwhelming 74%, while the Congress got only 16%.
But in the recent Lok Sabha polls, when the Congress wrested five seats from the BJP, it also got a bigger share of the postal ballots. Of the total 51,237 postal ballots cast in the 2024 general elections in Haryana, the BJP got 44.26%, while the Congress share more than tripled, to 48.49%.
Jammu and Kashmir
In J&K, the BJP again saw a sharp drop in postal ballots between the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and 2024. Of the total 53,737 postal ballots cast in 2019, the BJP, on the rise as a major player in the erstwhile state, had won as much as 69%, with the Congress-National Conference (NC) combine managing a total of 16%.
That year, the BJP had won the two Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and the Ladakh seat, while the NC had won all three seats in Kashmir.
This year, of the total 42,867 postal ballots cast in J&K (minus Ladakh now), the Congress-NC alliance together got 38.64%, while the BJP was reduced to 33.26%.
The BJP retained its two Jammu Lok Sabha seats in 2024, while the NC dropped to two, with an Independent winning the third Kashmir seat.
Maharashtra
In Maharashtra, the BJP and then undivided Shiv Sena together won 54.8% of the total 2.15 lakh postal ballots cast in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The alliance between the Congress and the then undivided Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) managed only 30.15% of the postal ballots.
In terms of Lok Sabha seats, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 41 of the state’s total 48, while Congress-NCP got only five.
However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, when a total 2.09 lakh postal ballots were polled in the state, the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) trumped the ruling Mahayuti alliance. The BJP along with the Shiv Sena and NCP factions allied with it together got 39% of the postal ballots, while the alliance between the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP(SP) collectively got 43.72%.
The MVA won 30 Lok Sabha seats in all, with the Mahayuti falling significantly to 17 constituencies.
Jharkhand
In Jharkhand, the BJP and its ally All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) won a combined 57% of the total 38,553 postal ballots cast in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress-led alliance, comprising the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), RJD and CPI(ML), polled 32.49% of the postal ballots.
The NDA won 12 Lok Sabha seats of the 14 in Jharkhand, and the Opposition won the remaining two.
The 2024 Lok Sabha polls saw a reversal in the postal ballots. Of the total 1.69 lakh cast in Haryana, the Congress-led alliance secured 47%, while the BJP-led group won 42%.
