Exports, imports (international trade): India

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This is a collection of articles archived for the excellence of their content.

Vulnerable India's trade-GDP ratio higher than US, China's

The Times of India, Aug 30 2015

Trade as % of GDP, 2013, India and the world; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, Aug 30 2015

International Trade as % of GDP of major economies, India and China, 1980-2014; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, Aug 30 2015

Atul Thakur

India's trade-GDP ratio higher than US, China's Country

More vulnerable to global crises

Historically, India has been viewed as being far less vulnerable to global financial crises than other large economies because it was much less integrated with the global economy than countries like, say , the US or China. Today , however, at least as far as trade goes, the opposite is true. World Bank data shows that in 2014 India's total trade (exports plus imports) was equivalent to about 50% of its GDP. This was higher than the trade to GDP ratio of the US, Japan or China. Dur ing the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which India escaped relatively unscathed, total foreign trade was equivalent to only 22.2% of the country's GDP.

One way to measure the extent to which an economy is globally linked is by comparing its international trade with its GDP. By this yardstick, India's aggregate exports and imports of goods and services was 49.6% of the country's GDP in 2014, compared to China's trade to GDP ratio of 41.5% for the same year. In 2013, the year till when Bank data is available for the US and Japan, international trade was about 30% of GDP for America and 35.5% for the Japanese economy . Of course, the US, China and Japan are far larger economies than India at the nominal exchange rate and hence a lower trade ratio doesn't mean their trade volumes are lower than India's.

The data shows that among major economies, countries of Western Europe have the highest degree of integration with the global economy . For instance, the ratio was 84.8% for Germany , Europe's largest economy . For the UK, Italy , Spain and France, trade was about 60% of GDP .

Three decades ago, in 1984, China and India had a similar degree of globalization with the trade to GDP ratio 16.6% for China and 13.8% for India. The Chinese economy experienced exponential growth thereafter and it was reflected in the growth of its international trade as well.The trade to GDP ratio steadily increased to a peak of 64.8% in 2006. Since then it has been decreasing as China's domestic market has expanded with increased per capita incomes.

India, on the other hand, continues to be in a phase where its global trade expands at a faster pace than its economy , resulting in a steadily climbing trade to GDP ratio.