Latest revision as of 08:14, 19 March 2022

[edit] 2017

[edit] Congress wins 28/ 60 seats, BJP 21

Oinam Sunil, Fractured mandate in Manipur a roadblock for main rivals, March 12, 2017: The Times of India

The region-wise performance of the parties in Manipur in the assembly elections of 2012 and 2017; Oinam Sunil, March 12, 2017: The Times of India

Manipur, which saw political instability for years until Congress came to power in 2002, once again gave a fractured mandate in the assembly polls. Congress, in power for three consecutive terms, managed to bag 28 of the 60 seats, while BJP won 21. In the 2012 election, the saffron party didn't win a single seat. All eyes are now on how Congress and BJP will stake claim to form government.Congress could try and win over Trinamool Congress, which has one seat, and an Independent, who is a Muslim. It may also try to rope in P A Sangma's National People's Party (NPP4 seats).

BJP is likely to bank on NPP, Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Naga People's Front (NPF), as all three are NDA allies. These parties together hold nine seats between them. Interestingly , LJP had supported Congress in the last government.

“Since Congress has emerged as the single largest party , we expect governor Najma Heptullah to call us to form government,“ a senior Congress member said. Reports said Congress was trying to rope in Independent Ashab Uddin with the help of senior Congress leader from Assam Rakibul Hussain.Many in Congress hope to get TMC support as Mamata Ba nerjee stridently opposes BJP.

Congress will still fall short of the halfway mark of 31. So will BJP , despite its three `al lies'. Relying on NPF could be a great risk as it is regarded an `untouchable' force because of its support for Naga integra tion, i.e. the unification of Naga-dominated areas of Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam with Nagaland.

In fact, PM Modi and home minister Rajnath Singh had promised to safeguard Manipur's territorial integrity .Sources said NPF may extend outside support to BJP.

What caught national attention, however, was the humiliating defeat of activist Irom Sharmila in Thoubal, Ibobi's constituency . She polled only 90 votes. Ibobi won defeating BJP's L Basanta by over 10,000 votes. None of Sharmila's People's Resurgence and Justice Alliance candidates won.

Gaikhangam, Congress's tallest Naga member, also retained his Nunga seat by defeating BJP's Adim Pamei by over 5,000 votes. Ibobi's son, Okram Surjakumar, and nephew, Okram Henry , won from Khangabok and Wangkhei.

Congress ministers -Hemochandra Singh, Moirangthen Okendro, Manga Vaiphei and Khumujam Ratankumar Singh -lost to BJP rivals.BJP winners N Biren Singh, a former Ibobi aide, and Thongam Biswajit Singh are likely to be the top contenders for the CM's post if BJP manages to cobble up a majority . Since Manipur attained statehood in 1972, it has seen fractured mandates in all polls except three. In 2012, Congress got clear majority by winning 42 seats. It had earlier hit the halfway mark in 1984 and 2007.

[edit] Okram Ibobi Singh forges hills-valley unity

Oinam Sunil, Marathon man Ibobi does it again, March 12, 2017: The Times of India

After 15 years in office, Okram Ibobi Singh has emerged as the only Congress CM to be able to resist the Modi wave. He put up a brave fight against anti-incumbency and the PM's direct attacks.

The CM, huddled with top Congress members, was unavailable for comment. He had earlier said the polls would be a referendum on the hills-valley unity: Congress bagged nine of the 20 seats in the hills, banking entirely on Ibobi to lead its campaign. “We told the high command that we will manage the election ourselves. We sought AICC vice-present Rahul Gandhi's service only after the PM joined the campaign,“ he had said on polling day.

The prominent issues here were the Naga Framework Agreement, economic blockade and corruption. Ibobi put up a tough fight on each. He took the calculated risk of creating seven new districts as anti-incumbency was working against him. Though the move displeased the United Naga Council, there are many Nagas who are part of the new districts. He also gained Kuki support with his decision. On the economic blockade called by UNC, he put BJP on the backfoot by questioning the Centre's sincerity in convincing the NSCN (I-M) that was openly backing the UNC.

[edit] 2022

[edit] The results

Prabin Kalita, March 11, 2022: The Times of India

The results of the elections held in 2022 for the legislative assembly of Manipur.
From: Prabin Kalita, March 11, 2022: The Times of India

See graphic:

The results of the elections held in 2022 for the legislative assembly of Manipur.

Imphal: BJP rode a record voter turnout of over 89% to win an absolute majority on Thursday in the newly-elected Manipur assembly that will allow it to form its second successive government in the northeastern state on its own, unlike five years ago. BJP went past the halfway mark in Manipur in its second outing, a feat the party could not achieve in neighbouring Assam in two attempts in 2016 and 2021. It won 32 of the 60 seats. The party hinted at keeping Naga People’s Front, a partner of the past five years, but decided to dump National People’s Party (NPP) of Meghalaya CM Conrad Sangma, with whose support it formed its first government in the state in 2017. These three parties came together after the polls five years ago, but fought the 2022 elections separately. NPP won seven seats, while NPF and Congress took five seats each. 
BJP handed Congress its worst defeat in Manipur, while most other parties made gains over the previous election. “From the beginning, we were expecting to achieve an absolute majority and form the government on our own. I do not believe that NPP will be part of the government, but we would want to follow the path of coalition dharma…there is no harm in keeping NPF,” CM N Biren Singh said.

This will be the second instance of BJP keeping an ally in the northeast, despite hav- ing the majority. In 2018, it won with an absolute majority in Tripura, but retained its pre-poll ally IPFT and made the tribal-based party a partner in the government. Biren credited the people with BJP’s victory and expressed gratitude to PM Narendra Modi, home minister Amit Shah and party president JP Nadda for their “guidance”. “At the core of our victory is PM Modi’s mantra — sabka saath, sabka vikas, sabka vishwas and sabka prayaas. With this in mind, we could reach out to every citizen, from the grassroots to the top, from the valley to the hills,” Biren said.

He dismissed speculation about his future and said, “BJP has not announced the party’s chief ministerial candidates in any of the five states where elections have been held. Our central leader- ship announces the chief minister and it is done in a democratic manner. ”

He also said the new BJP government will ask the Centre to withdraw AFSPA, the law that gives security forces extra-judicial powers during counter-insurgency operations, and which is at the heart of many public protests in Manipur over the years. Biren said the government will continue to work towards women and youth empowerment and creating jobs.

[edit] JD(U)

Prabin Kalita, March 11, 2022: The Times of India

Imphal: Labelled by rivals as BJP’s B-team throughout the campaign period, JD(U) has made a dramatic comeback after 20 years by winning six seats in Manipur, making the Bihar party the second-largest in the northeastern state, behind BJP and ahead of Congress. JD(U) debuted in the Manipur election in 2000. It fielded 18 candidates and won one seat. In the election two years later, the party fielded seven candidates but failed to win any seat. It drew blanks in 2007 and 2012 and did not contest in 2017. This time, the party fielded 38 candidates, its most in the Manipur assembly election. “This is a great comeback. We were hoping for this and the results have come on expected lines,” said JD(U) national general secretary in charge of the northeast Afaque Ahmed Khan. “Our manifesto and the clean image of the party’s leadership helped us win the trust of voters in Manipur,” he said. The party was also able to attract defectors from BJP, its big brother in the NDA, and from Congress in Manipur. Khan said JD(U)’s next stops would be Meghalaya and Nagaland, which will go to polls next year.