Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)
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Performance in state assembly elections, 2017
The road outside 6 Flagstaff House was set for a big party -balloons hung from the trees outside Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal's residence, a large screen displayed the assembly results, and peppy Punjabi tunes blared. But as AAP began to struggle, the music faded. So did the crowd.
Finishing a distant second with 20 seats, behind Congress, the party was stunned into silence.
As the results sink in, the task of contesting Delhi's civic elections looks hard.The party's bid to expand its profile and claim a leading role in national politics has taken a hit. It must now look to protect its home turf. Observers, however, say AAP needn't tread warily on the national stage. Political commentator Shiv Vishwanathan said 20-plus seats was respectable but the party needed a longterm vision. Columnist Santosh Desai, too, does not see AAP as a regional party.“Its birth came out of a national agenda.AAP has not been about Delhi or restricted by geography ,“ he said.
The party , however, is being circumspect. The only statement Kejriwal made was on Twitter: “We accept the people's verdict. All karyakartas worked really hard. Our struggle will continue.“ Senior AAP member Sanjay Singh, who was actively involved in the Punjab election campaign, told TOI the result was unexpected. “Every survey showed AAP was winning. We will have to analyse what happened finally ,“ he said.
AAP's Punjab campaign started early and, some observers believe, peaked too soon. Its challenge lies in countering the impression that it was the beneficiary of a “protest“ vote and might prove to be a transient phenomenon. It will have to handle a resurgent BJP with the UP win possibly increasing the saffron party's appeal among the capital's large Purvanchali population. Migrant Purvanchalis in slums have backed AAP but demonetisation has given BJP significant outreach. BJP state president Manoj Tewari hali and JD(U) will be contest is a Purvanchali and JD(U) will be contesting all 272 municipal seats this time.
“We have started work for the Delhi corporation elections, but with this result we will have to be more careful. We cannot afford overconfidence. We will leave no stone unturned to campaign well for the next one month,“ said a senior party member.
Performance as Delhi’s ruling party
Three years’ report card
From: February 14, 2018: The Times of India
See graphic:
How the public rated the performance of AAP as Delhi’s ruling party after three years: 2015-18
Punjab
2014>17>19: a rapid decline
Ambika Pandit, May 19, 2019: The Times of India
As the curtain falls over polls in Punjab, it also chronicles the rise and swift fall of Aam Aadmi Party from a time when it was seen as a serious contender for power to an outfit whose identity is tagged to a few individuals rather than being a political force representing change.
After winning four Lok Sabha seats in 2014, AAP fancied its chances in the 2017 state polls but failed to live up to the initial promise. Yet, it was the main opposition with a strong foothold in the Malwa region. But subsequent infighting and local leaders’ exit saw the party decline to an also ran.
The view in the countryside is one of regret as it is felt that AAP may have muffed its lines. In a state where the bipolar of Congress and Akali-BJP is not really enthusing voters, there might have been an opportunity for a third force. Apart from inhouse squabbles, the suggestion in the 2017 poll that the leader could be from “outside” the state has not gone down well with voters.
Except for Sangrur where Bhagwant Mann is in conversation, in nearly all other constituencies people are largely dismissive as the dream of “alternative” politics floated by AAP has lost its appeal given the party’s erratic graph.
The outcome in Punjab, read along with Delhi, could weigh in AAP’s defence of its big majority in the Delhi assembly in the polls scheduled for early 2020. Though local issues tend to dominate state polls, a dwindling national tally after it ended up as lead opposition in the assembly with 20 seats can hardly help its cause.
While the party has banked on Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s roadshows in Punjab, these did not go off too well with reports of his being met with black flags in Sangrur.
The pre-poll attempts by Kejriwal to forge an alliance with Congress also set voters thinking. People TOI spoke to said the discussions only served to alienate voters who were looking for options other than Congress and SAD.
2024: LS elections
Vibhor Mohan, June 5, 2024: The Times of India
Chandigarh: The turmoil in Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) ahead of the Lok Sabha election turned the contest into a high-stakes personal battle for Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann — he was leading a campaign in the absence of Arvind Kejriwal and Raghav Chadha with his own govt’s two-year performance as a key issue.
AAP’s victory in three of the 13 seats in Punjab — Sangrur, Anandpur Sahib and Hoshiarpur — provides the party consolation in the light of the washout in Delhi and is a morale-booster to Mann. AAP has reclaimed Sangrur, represented twice by the chief minister himself in the past. Overall performance must be gauged vis-à-vis numbers notched up by rival parties as well as AAP’s tally in Delhi. Mann would want to assess the performance of four cabinet colleagues who lost and why the party’s 92 MLAs in the 117-member state legislature failed to get more leads for AAP in their assembly segments.
Stepping out of Kejriwal’s shadow and with a free hand to shape strategy, he was more than a star campaigner. Uncertainty over Kejriwal and Chadha’s invol- vement in Punjab affairs and multi-cornered contests against Congress, SAD and BJP made his role crucial. Unlike the Punjab Congress unit, where no single leader hogged the limelight, AAP’s campaign revolved around the CM.
Though results fall far short of any intended target, the score would give AAP visibility in Parliament and national presence amid the troubles that beset its leadership in Delhi. Kejriwal had put Mann in the spotlight with the slogan ‘Sansad mein bhi Bhagwant Mann…’ (Mann in Parliament too), seeking votes to “strengthen” the chief minister’s position to take on the Centre and the governor.
Satish Singh, a political analyst and former I-PAC member, said, “Mann was the commander-in-chief of AAP’s campaign in Punjab. Had he faltered, there could have been murmurs of dissent. It was Mann’s show and he had to ensure a decent performance.”
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Ambika.Pandit, June 5, 2024: The Times of India
New Delhi: It is indeed ironical that when the INDIA bloc has given a tough fight to NDA, Arvind Kejriwal — with govt in two states — and his party have suffered a huge setback. In fact, the poll outcome shows a loss of credibility for brand Kejriwal. The AAP campaign pitch virtually called for a referendum on the Delhi chief minister’s arrest in the liquor policy case, portraying it as vendetta politics by BJP. This very neatly dovetailed with its criticism of LG V K Saxena for being the Centre’s malicious agent.
What did AAP gain after 21 days of campaigning by its chief, who was out on interim bail? It had an alliance with Congress in Delhi and they drew a blank on all 7 seats. The Punjab story is even more dire. It has won only 3 out of 13 seats in the state where it is the ruling party. And it has failed to win any seat in Gujarat, Assam and Haryana.
This puts a question mark on AAP’s relevance as a player of significance in the INDIA alliance. The party’s bargaining power in INDIA alliance will be considerably weakened with more powerful regional satraps calling the shots.
It can, however, take solace from the fact that with NDA’s tally reduced, and BJP doing introspection, its mascot can expect some respite from central agencies. However, if Kejriwal insists on continuing as CM while in jail, he has to contend with the possibility of Central rule being imposed and assembly polls being called for earlier than Feb next year when the AAP govt completes five years.
The slogan of “jail ka jawab vote se” didn’t yield a mandate for the party. The poll results also show that Kejriwal’s ‘Delhi model of development’ and its projection in Punjab, where it had swept the assembly polls in 2022, did not impress the electorate enough to choose AAP over BJP and Congress.
AAP had joined politics promising an “alternative” to traditional parties like BJP and Congress, calling them corrupt. When it struck an alliance with Congress, it did not sit well with voters who saw it as an opportunistic move. The argument that AAP had joined INDIA in order to defeat a dictatorial dispensation at the Centre seems to have been lost on the electorate.
The party, which had secured an impressive victory in Punjab assembly polls in 2022, getting catapulted into the limelight as a party that could be a national player of significance, failed to perform in the state winning just 3 seats – Sangrur, Anandpur Sahib and Hoshiarpur. Congress got 7 out of 13. Significantly, both AAP and Cong- ress had agreed not to fight in an alliance in the face of resistance from state units who felt going separately would work better. That clearly worked for Congress, leaving AAP high and dry. As part of the INDIA alliance, AAP and Congress were also in the poll fray jointly in Gujarat. AAP contested in two constituencies – Bharuch and Bhavnagar — with the former being the home turf of later Congress stalwart Ahmed Patel. Congress has won one out of the 24 seats it contested. BJP bagged 25 out of 26. AAP drew a blank.
Besides, AAP also lost Kurukshetra to BJP while Congress, which fought on 9 seats in Haryana, won 5. Kejriwal’s party was also defeated in two constituencies in Assam. With Kejriwal seen as the face of AAP in Delhi and beyond, with no other person to take over reins of the party and govt in sight yet, the way forward for his party will be determined by how long he remains in jail and how far he is able to run the show from inside while keeping his flock together.
