Azamgarh: political history
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The politics of the Lok Sabha constituency
As in 2024
Rajeev Dikshit, May 24, 2024: The Times of India
From: Rajeev Dikshit, May 24, 2024: The Times of India
Azamgarh : For long, Azamgarh has turned heads for wrong reasons. Its frequent association with alleged terror modules, don Abu Salem and incidents such as the Batla House encounter had made people oblivious to the fact that it’s also home to writer Rahul Sankrityayan, poet Kaifi Azmi, the famous Shibli National College and Hariharpur music gharana.
Ten months after Bhojpuri film star Dinesh Lal Yadav ‘Nirahua’ wrested the seat for BJP from Yadav family’s Dharmendra Yadav in the June 2022 bypoll, Union home minister Amit Shah laid the foundation of Hariharpur Music University dedicated to the gharana which has produced artists like Padma Vibhushan Chhannulal Mishra. “It was also an attempt to redeem the image of the district,” says Prabhat Mishra of Hariharpur village.
Development Push
In March this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated Manduri Airport in Azamgarh, and a day later the first flight took off for Lucknow.
He also inaugurated a state university named after Raja Suheldev, a caste icon revered by Rajbhars, who hold sway over Azamgarh and surrounding districts, and have a party, SBSP, led by O P Rajbhar, that largely represents them.
After taking over as the chief minister in March 2017, Yogi Adityanath has put special focus on Azamgarh, bringing a slew of projects for infrastructure development and better connectivity with the rest of the country. The Purvanchal Expressway, inaugurated in 2021, has reduced travel time between Lucknow and Azamgarh to almost by 50%. Besides, projects like expansion of road and rail infra and introduction of a masterplan for planned development of Azamgarh town give hope to Nirahua that he will retain the seat against familiar rival, Dharmendra Yadav of SP.
Giving another perspective, lawyer Anup Barnwal says: “No doubt the pace of development has been accelerated in Azamgarh, which wasn’t as backward as its neighbouring districts of Purvanchal, courtesy SP patriarch late Mulayam Singh Yadav. However, people think that works done by the Modi-Yogi govts here will not give instant relief as all their plans are for the long term.”
Caste Matrix
Businessman Ashutosh Rungta says BJP’s development works and Nirahua’s performance as an MP are talked about but elections are not fought solely on these. Azamgarh has over 35% population of Muslim and Yadav voters, and they have their unflinching support for SP. Although SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, who won the seat in 2014, and his son Akhilesh, who retained it in 2019, are also known for their development initiative, including opening of a sugar mill in Sathiyavan, it’s a fact that they gain overwhelmingly from the concentration of Yadav and Muslim voters.
How this comes into play is reflected in the fact that a Yadav candidate has won the Azamgarh seat in general elections and bypolls 14 times out of 20, and Muslim candidates have won it thrice. SP had swept the district, winning all 10 assembly seats in 2022 — five in Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituency and five in Lalganj.
Jamali Factor
The first time BJP won Azamgarh was in 2009, through local strongman and a known party-hopper, Ramakant Yadav. Now in jail in an old case, he is an SP MLA. Next, it was Nirahua in the 2022 bypoll when Akhilesh vacated the seat after winning from Karhal in the assembly polls and decided to don the hat of leader of opposition in UP. Before that, Akhilesh had defeated Nirahua by 2.6 lakh votes in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when SP was in an alliance with BSP.
But the SP-BSP alliance broke just after the previous Lok Sabha elections and data show that what tilted the balance in Nirahua’s favour in the bypoll was the pres- ence of former MLA Shah Alam Guddu Jamali in the field on a BSP ticket. Jamali garnered over 2.6 lakh votes to finish third, eating significantly into SP’s vote bank. Nirahua scraped past, winning by just 8,000 votes.
However, Jamali is now with SP. Akhilesh has made him an MLC and he is actively campaigning for Dharmendra. “This makes things tough for Nirahua,” says local political analyst and scholar Umar Siddiqui.
Dalit Angle
Apart from the Muslim-Yadav factor, Dalit voters also play a crucial role here, which explains the success of BSP, which has won the seat four times in the past, equalling the performance of SP.
However, this time, BSP candidate Mashood Ahmed Ansari is not that well-known and is unlikely to garner the community’s votes the way Jamali did. This makes Nirahua’s task arduous. “Nirahua had won 34% votes and Dharmendra just 1% less in the 2022 bypoll. If he has to retain the seat, he will have to significantly jack up his tally as this time it’s virtually a bipolar contest. Will he be able to do it?” asks Anoop Singh, a trader.
Role of Samajwadi Party in politics
In the 2012 elections, Azamgarh district became an SP fortress. Mulayam Singh Yadav's party romped home with nine out of 10 seats in this east UP district.
Only BSP's Richie-Rich businessman Shah Alam (Guddu Jamali) could stop the SP from a perfect 10 result.Even when the Modi cyclone ripped through the opposition in UP in 2014, Azamgarh was Mulayam's refuge.
But this election, the district that evokes divergent images of Kaifi Azmi, Abu Salem and the Batla House encounter, no longer appears to be a near-impregnable SP bastion. BSP's emerged a strong challenger, even frontrunner, in Didarganj, Sagri, Lalganj (SC) and Mehnagar (SC).
In Mubarakpur, where Jamali is fighting to retain his seat, BSP is in with a shout. BJP is well poised at Atraulia, where Amit Shah held a rally on Wednesday . In the remaining seats -Gopalpur, Azamgarh, Nizamabad and Phoolpur Pawai -the SP-Cong combine has the edge.
The roots of change are located in new power alignments. Earlier this month, the Rashtriya Ulama Council, a conservative Muslim party that took up the Batla House issue, withdrew 84 candidates in favour of BSP . “The council has support in Gopalpur, Nizamabad, Didarganj, Phoolpur Pawai and Lalganj,“ says SZ Ali, zoology teacher at Shibli National College. The council apparently hasn't taken kindly to the SP-Congress alliance, since the 2008 Batla House incident happened during UPA rule.
Sarfaraz Nawaz, English teacher at the same college, says a partial shift of Muslim voters towards BSP was noticed after Mukhtar Ansari's Qaumi Ekta Dal merged with Mayawati's par ty. Ali adds: Shia pockets in Mubarak pur and Nizamabad are inclined to wards BSP . Azamgarh district has 15% Muslims and around 25% SCs, Census 2011 says. In seats where BSP has the caste-community-candidate combine right, it looks strong.
Azamgarh has about 300 madras sas, 180 colleges. “Unlike west UP , Muslims here are better educated and better off. Many are businessmen in Mumbai and abroad,“ says teacher Sultan Ahmed.
Yadavs too are numerically sig nificant in several seats. “I met some Yadav teachers who said every community vote will go to Akhilesh,“ says Ali. “In 2012, most Muslims and Yadavs voted SP . Now it needs about 70% Muslim votes to emerge at top,“ he says. To SP's advantage, Nawaz says, most young, educated Muslims have taken to Akhilesh. SP has the support of other communities too.
Most of the 350-odd nai (barber) votes in Hariharpur are likely to go to SP's incumbent MLA Durga Prasad Yadav .
One reason behind BJP's 2014 sweep was that most OBCs, minus the Yadavs, voted saffron. Ali narrates an anecdote. “I was campaigning for Na fees Ahmed, SP's Gopalpur candidate.
Some former students, Vishkarmas and Rajbhars, both OBCs, said they would all vote BJP .“ With Patels and Malis in other seats saying the same, BJP's non-Yadav OBC outreach con tinues to work at some levels.
