ICC World Twenty20 (T20) (general)
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The Times of India, Mar 12, 2016
Partha Bhaduri
HIGHLIGHTS
No team has won the toss, elected to bat and gone on to win a match on Indian soil. Chasing should be the preferred option with 11 out of 15 completed games won by the side batting second. MS Dhoni, it would seem, is all too aware of this piece of statistic.
With such a fine line between victory and defeat, here's what teams can learn from past T20Is on Indian soil... An analytical arms race is brewing as top teams await the starting gun. There's fierce competition at this level when it comes to the number crunching, with backroom research boys collating reams of data in the hope of gaining an inch or two of advantage over the adjacent dressing room. We at TOI did some number crunching of our own (Cutting to the Chase, below), restricting our data only to completed T20 internationals played on Indian soil before the World T20 qualifying stage matches began, and came up with some unexpected pointers. It may all eventually boil to player temperament and proper execution of skills, but a bit of headway in the strategizing department doesn't hurt. Here are our five keys to success in this World T20...
1. TEAM WINNING TOSS AND DECIDING TO BAT FIRST WILL LOSE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
No team has won the toss, elected to bat and gone on to win a match on Indian soil. In general, chasing should be the preferred option with 11 out of 15 completed games (excluding those involving minnows) won by the side batting second. Even in the four games where the side batting first won, one victory was by the narrowest margin possible - a one run win by New Zealand over India in Chennai in Sep 2012. India's captain MS Dhoni, it would seem, is all too aware of this piece of statistic: the last time he won the toss at home in a T20 international and decided to bat first was on Oct 29, 2011, against England at the Eden Gardens. No prizes for guessing that India lost that game. Incidentally, the Eden game is the only time India has not put the opposition in after winning the toss in a home T20.
2. KEEP WICKETS IN HAND WHILE CHASING, JUST LIKE IN ONE-DAY INTERNATIONALS
That's a surprising trend, given that wicket management doesn't always seem to be on T20's logical list of priorities. But interestingly, in all 11 matches won by sides chasing, the victory margin has been at least 5 wickets. This suggests wickets in hand is key. To flip that around, a side that loses wickets at regular intervals while chasing will probably end up losing. But we knew that already during the heady days of ODIs, didn't we?
3. BIG HITTERS WHO CAN FINISH A CHASE ARE CRUCIAL
There's a bit of background to this conclusion. Firstly, there's little to choose between the side batting first and the one batting second in a match when it comes to run rates in the first 10 overs. The averages for the first 5 overs are 7.8 runs per over versus 7.9, for overs 6-10 they are 8.1 and 7.8, for overs 11-15 the gap widens a little at 7.4 versus 8.3. But the real difference is in overs 16-20, where teams chasing have averaged 10.8 runs per over against just 8.7 runs per over for those setting a target. Again, what that suggests is a gradual build up with wickets in hand allows for an explosion at the end. This also suggests big hitters who can finish a chase are crucial.
4. ...BUT DON'T LEAVE A FINISHER WITH TOO MUCH ON HIS PLATE
Here, teams can take a leaf out of India's strategy while chasing: they score fast at the start and leave themselves less to do at the end, never mind that they have a renowned finisher in MS Dhoni. India's largest successful run chase on home soil involved chasing 56 in the last 5 overs. India like their top and upper middle order to do the bulk of the scoring while chasing, it appears. To put it another way, in an ideal situation teams should pace their chase in a manner that leaves them with not more than two runs per ball to get in the last 5 overs.
While batting first, without the pressure of a creeping asking rate, ask the moon of your finisher. Again, just look at India's strategy: when batting first, overs 1-15 are evenly paced, with batsmen scoring at about 7-7.5 runs an over. But the last 5 overs are taken for about 46 runs on an average. That means, if you are forced to bat first, accelerate as much you can at the death. You never know how much will be enough on these flat pitches.
When India missed the knockouts
2009-21
Nov 2, 2021: The Times of India
2009: The 2009 IPL took place in South Africa between April 18-May 24 while the T20 World Cup started on June 5. The Indian players had no recovery time after a hectic two months of travelling and cricket in South Africa. The conditions in England, too, were significantly different than what it was in South Africa and MS Dhoni’s men lost all their three Super 8 games — to West Indies, South Africa and England — with coach Gary Kirsten saying that the team suffered from IPL fatigue. It is to be noted that Pakistan didn’t have any representation in the IPL and they went on to win the World T20.
2010: This time, the IPL final took place on April 25 and India were in West Indies immediately after that for World T20 from April 30. This time too, India were miserable in the Super 8s, going down to Australia, Sri Lanka and West Indies. The slow pitches of West Indies weren’t conducive for the Indian stroke-players after two-month long run-fest in the IPL.
2012: The 2012 debacle, probably, cannot be attributed directly to IPL fatigue, because India went into the World Cup in Sri Lanka two months after the event. But then, as Ramji said before, the players had reached their T20 peaks during the franchise event and it was difficult to recreate it at the World T20. However, they won two games in the Super 8s and were knocked out on Net Run Rate, with Australia and Pakistan going through from the group.
2021: Had it not been for Covid, we wouldn’t have got to this extraordinary situation where India had to go into World T20 right after the second phase of IPL. But as Jasprit Bumrah pointed out, bubble fatigue may have been a factor as all the Indian stars have been at the UAE since September before a long series in England. All the hype around adjusting to UAE pitches by playing IPL has also fallen flat and teams like Pakistan and England, which have more fresh players after a decent break, have looked way more threatening so far.
