Jammu & Kashmir: Assembly elections
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1977, 1987, 2002
Oct 9, 2024: The Indian Express
We look back at three significant elections in the former state of Jammu and Kashmir.
1977: The return of the National Conference and Sheikh Abdullah at its helm
The 1977 state elections marked an important milestone. Firstly, it saw a return to ‘free and fair elections’ following the Emergency period (1975-77), which saw a severe clamping down on civil liberties and freedoms. Prime Minister Morarji Desai enacted strict measures to discourage electoral rigging and malpractice to ensure the smooth conduct of elections. The result: a formidable voter turnout of 67 per cent.
Before that, the Indira-Abdullah Accord of 1975 had led to National Conference leader Sheikh Abdullah assuming power as Chief Minister, with the support of the Congress. The Indian Express then described Abdullah assuming the Chief Ministerial post as an “epochal event in the history of free India”. (India After Gandhi, Ramachandra Guha, 2008).
However, the Congress withdrew their support two years later, prompting fresh polls in June 1977. With the Emergency leading to the Congress losing its footing in many parts of India, a favourable opportunity was presented for the return of Abdullah and a revitalised NC. He remained in power until his death in 1982, following which his son Farooq Abdullah took over as the CM.
1987: Allegations of electoral rigging amidst calls for separatism
Marred by allegations of electoral rigging, the 1987 elections are widely believed to have been the impetus for the prolonged insurgency that the region witnessed.
A year after the Farooq Abdullah-led NC won the assembly elections in 1983, Ghulam Mohammad Shah and a faction of supporters defected from the National Conference, triggering a political crisis. Shah served as CM until 1986, when Governor Jagmohan dismissed the government.
Around this time, Rajiv Gandhi was threatened by the formation of Muslim United Front (MUF), a coalition of Muslim Kashmiri parties that was gaining popularity in the state. Farooq Abdullah then returned as the chief minister thanks to Gandhi's support, with the understanding that the Congress and NC would together contest elections next year.
The 1987 elections reportedly witnessed a voter turnout of 80 per cent, but voters were also reportedly coerced into voting for the NC. As trust in the Centre fell among some sections, the state saw a rise of militancy. Then Union Home Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's daughter Rabaiya was also kidnapped by militants in 1989. In the following years, the state would witness a mass exodus of Kashmiri Hindus and rampant violence amidst a renewed call for political autonomy. 2002: Enter Mufti and the People’s Democratic Party
In 1999, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and his supporters left the Congress to form the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The party initially allied with the Congress and dethroned the NC. The 2002 polls were viewed as a complete reversal of the contentious 1987 elections, which had amplified separatism in the region. Ramachandra Guha wrote that the verdict established a linkage between the people and the government: “The new chief minister, Mufti Mohammed Saeed, expressed these sentiments more crisply when he remarked that ‘this is the first time since 1953 that India has acquired legitimacy in the eyes of the [Kashmiri] people’”.
Sayeed’s tenure as CM coincided with the normalisation of the peace process between India and Pakistan, including the cross-border bus and trade service along the Line of Control. The state also witnessed civic polls for the first time in almost three decades in January 2005, despite spurts of violence.
Sayeed’s tenure as CM ended in 2005 as he had agreed to let the Congress’s Ghulam Nabi Azad serve the rest of the term. While he did not pass on the mantle happily, he remained in the government until the end of the term.
2014
In brief
Terrorists backed by Pakistan kill civilians across Kashmir to disrupt polls in December, 2014
Saleem Pandit, December 06 2014
Four terror attacks rocked Kashmir as Pakistan-backed militants struck a fortified military camp at Uri in Baramulla district as well as police and civilian targets in three other districts. At least 21 have been killed, among them eight soldiers, including the commanding officer in Uri, three policemen, two civilians and the remaining militants.
The attacks in Uri, Srinagar, Shopian and Pulwama were seen aimed at disrupting the state elections which have witnessed record voter turnouts despite threats. The attacks came a day after Jamaatud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed, speaking in Lahore, rejected the J&K polls, saying they we are no substitute to plebiscite.
Voter turnout is highest in J&K in 25 years
2014: Voter turnout is highest in J&K in 25 years
Dec 21, 2014
Describing 2014 as a year of record high voter turnouts, the Election Commission has said the 66% overall polling in J&K was its highest in the last two and-a-half decades. The turnout at the last assembly poll in Jammu & Kashmir recorded 61.16% polling in the 2008 state polls. EC said the overall turnouts may climb further as the figures for the last phase of polling are only tentative.
During the Lok Sabha poll, 2014, J&K recorded a 49.72% turnout, up from 39.70% clocked in 2009 and 35.2% in 2004.
Terming the latest J&K assembly election as “historic” given its high turnout and peaceful conduct, deputy election commissioner Vinod Zutshi said the state had witnessed the highest turnout in around “two-and-a-half decades”. The highest turnout in J&K, it be recalled, was recorded during the 1987 assembly polls, at a whopping 74.88%. This was slightly higher than the 1983 polling figure of 73.24%.
Dec 24, 2014
BATTLEGROUND J&K - CHEMISTRY MISSING IN J&K MATH
BJP got highest vote share in J&K, but 2.2% in Valley
Perhaps the most startling statistic from the results of the assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir is the fact that the BJP has a larger vote share than any other party in the state, its 23% just slightly over the PDP's 22.7%, the NC's 20.8% and the Congress share of 18%. That might suggest that the BJP has done quite well in terms of votes across the state, even if its seats are concentrated in the Jammu region. The truth, however, is more nuanced.
The much-anticipated breakthrough for the BJP in the Kashmir valley simply hasn't happened. The party's vote share in this part of the state is a dismal 2.2% despite all the hype surrounding its efforts. More surprisingly, even in the Ladakh region, represented in the Lok Sabha by a BJP MP , the party drew a blank in terms of seats and was a distant second to the Congress in terms of vote share, getting barely 22.1% compared to over 50% for the Congress.
What has boosted the BJP's vote share is really a combination of two factors. First is its impressive showing in the Hindu-dominated seats of the Jammu region. In these 25 seats, it won 22 and garnered a vote share of 48.1%. This, combined with the fact that the region also was the one with the highest turnouts in the state, was enough to make the party's state-wide share reach a healthy tally.
Even so, the BJP's vote share in these elections meant a sharp drop of over nine percentage points from the 32.4% it had won in the April-May Lok Sabha polls. The PDP and Congress too saw their vote shares dropping from the LS levels, though not by as much, while the NC's share rose by almost exactly the same amount as the BJP's fell.
A look at the regional patterns reveals that the overall verdict is really an aggregation of very different contests in different parts of the state.If the BJP was the runaway winner in the Hindu-dominated parts of Jammu, the Muslim-dominated parts of Jammu saw the most even four-cornered race with all four major parties getting between 20% and 28% of the votes and the largest among them, the Congress, winning just five of the 12 seats.
As in Jammu, so also in Kashmir, the contest was not quite the same in the north ern and southern parts of the Valley. The PDP clearly dominated south Kashmir, winning 13 of the 21 seats and garnering a vote share of over 40%. The National Conference, despite winning a healthy 30%-plus of the votes could manage no more than four seats since the 10% gap from the leading party was decisive in a largely bi-polar contest in the region. The Congress finished a distant third with 13.2% of the votes and two seats.
North Kashmir saw a more even battle between the two regional parties, with the NC's 28.2% much closer to the PDP's 34.9%. That was reflected in the seat tallies too, with the NC picking up eight to the PDP's 12.
2024
Subodh Ghildiyal, Oct 9, 2024: The Times of India
From: Subodh Ghildiyal, Oct 9, 2024: The Times of India
Srinagar : Some call it religious appeal. Some call it “Peer-Mureedi”. Whatever it may be, the presence of two spiritual guides of different Muslim sects in National Conference’s campaign consolidated the mood for the Omar Abdullah outfit and put it beyond the fight that PDP, newbies and independents could put up.
Lok Sabha MPs Mian Altaf Ahmad of Anantnag-Rajouri and Syed Aga Ruhullah Mehdi of Srinagar are respected clerics, who were inseparable from Omar’s travels across J&K in the cut-throat campaign that lasted over a month.
The Mian family represents the revered spiritual seat of Gujjar-Bakarwal communities across J&K. While the community has a presence in parts of Kashmir, they are in good numbers in Jammu region as well. Interestingly, Mian Altaf’s son Mehar Ali debuted from his erstwhile assembly seat of Kangan, which impeded the MP’s movement in the party’s campaigning. He addressed many rallies in Poonch and other regions of Jammu by video call, while apologising for being hobbled by his son’s contest.
Aga Ruhullah is a young and respected cleric of Shia sect which has a good presence in Srinagar-Budgam pockets, both of which have been swept by NC. In fact, Budgam that Omar chose as his second seat after Ganderbal this time was Aga’s earlier assembly turf.
Observers point out that beyond being representatives of individual sects, the two are also respected by the vast swathe of the Kashmiri community as also by Jammu Muslims. It works twofold — in taking the political campaign to individual groups, as also appealing to the larger religious umbrella.
The strong mandate for NC is also reflective of the magic woven by the two MPs, whose families have had political roles besides their religious duties for decades.
The Mian family has represented Kangan in Kashmir since 1951, going back to the MP’s grandfather. In 2024 LS polls, Ahmad defeated PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti from Anantnag. At the same time, Aga Ruhullah’s family has been active in Budgam politics for decades, and his father was assassinated by the militants. He himself was a three- term MLA and minister in the NC govt, before he became the MP in 2024.
The NC decision to field its religious faces in the 2024 LS polls was shrewd. With PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti as candidate from Anantnag-Rajouri, Ahmad’s candidature brought in the Gujjar-Bakarwal votes of Rajouri in Jammu to the NC base in Anantnag in Kashmir, delivering the party a big win over a star rival.
At the same time, Ruhullah’s candidature aggregated the average Srinagar voter, angry over abrogation of special status, with his sect that is in good strength in Srinagar. Aga became popular with his speeches against the reading down of Article 370 in 2019.
Four months later, their status as star MPs raised them to the position of lynchpin of the NC campaign.
Oct 9, 2024: The Times of India
With 25.6%, BJP bags the biggest vote share in J&K
NC Comes 2nd With 23.4%; Cong Gets 12%
We must reciprocate this mandate by fulfilling people’s expectations,” Omar said.
In south Kashmir’s Anantnag district, NC-Congress won all seven seats, blanking out PDP. Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija, making her poll debut in BijbeharaSrigufwara, was among the prominent losers. Dr Bashir Ahmad Veeri of NC is the first candidate outside PDP to win that seat.
People’s Conference chief Sajjad Lone, who fared even worse than Omar in the Baramulla Lok Sabha poll a little over four months ago, scraped through in Handwara by a margin of 662 votes to spare People’s Conference the blushes.
CPM had a lone victory, with Mohd Tarigami winning Kulgam. AAP opened its account in J&K with Mehraj Malik’s surprise victory in Doda.
In terms of vote share, BJP was the biggest win- ner, garnering 25.6% of the votes polled. This is 2.6% more than what it received in 2014. NC was second with 23.4%, also an improvement of 2.6% over the last election. Congress, which had fielded candidates in 39 seats, saw its vote share slump 6%, while PDP’s fell 13.8%.
J&K BJP spokesperson Y V Sharma said BJP increasing its vote share and tally by four seats was a measure of voter confidence in the steps taken by the Modi govt to weed out everything that had so far been holding back the UT.
“A total of 209 laws that applied to the erstwhile state of J&K have been repealed. BJP is committed to the welfare of people, especially the poor, marginalised and deprived, as promised in our Sankalp Patra,” he said.
The power to nominate five members was provisioned by the Delimitation Commission, increasing the number of seats in J&K. Two of the five will be women, another two Kashmiri Pandits, and the fifth a “displaced” person from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
NC, Congress and PDP had criticised the provision as undemocratic.
