Maharashtra: assembly and council elections
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Maharashtra: assembly elections (1985 onwards)
Maharashtra assembly elections 2014: BJP first party to hit century in state since 1990
Independent candidates
1995-2014
From: Sep 23, 2019: The Times of India
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The performance of Independent candidates in Maharashtra’s assembly elections, 1995-2014
2014-19: Independents, smaller parties polled 23% to BJP’s 26%
Priyanka Kakodkar , Oct 26, 2019: The Times of India
Smaller parties and independents polled 23% of the votes in the Maharashtra assembly election, almost as high as the vote share of BJP, which secured 25.7% of votes.
This is a steep jump from 2014, when smaller parties and independents secured 14% of votes. A reason for the surge is the rise in the number of independents, on account of the rebels entering the fray against the saffron combine. BJP inducting defectors from Congress and NCP had triggered rebellions from ticket-seekers within the saffron combine.
In 2014, seven Independents won. This election, the figure was 13. The search for alternatives beyond the major parties seems to have drawn voters to smaller parties, says political analyst Abhay Deshpande.
2023, February
Prafulla Marpakwar, February 4, 2023: The Times of India
MUMBAI: Congress gave a jolt to BJP when it wrested the Amravati graduates constituency from it, making the score three MVA, one BJP and one independent in this year’s legislative council election.
Now all eyes are on the independent winner from Nashik division graduates constituency, Satyajeet Tambe, to see whether the Congress rebel joins BJP or the AICC revokes his suspension. While Tambe said he would declare his intentions, leader of the opposition Ajit Pawar of the NCP said he expected Tambe to return to Congress soon. “I know the entire Tambe family. They are born Congress men. They have been brought up in the Congress culture,” the NCP leader said.
In Amravati, Congress nominee Dhiraj Lingade defeated sitting MLC Ranjeet Patil of BJP. Lingade polled 46,344 votes while Patil bagged 42,962. The counting lasted more than 32 hours.
Seats won by parties in 2014, 2019
Atul Thakur , Oct 26, 2019: The Times of India
From: Atul Thakur , Oct 26, 2019: The Times of India
In 123 of the total 288 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra, majority of people did not vote for the party that they had supported in 2014. But in the recent elections, political parties retained 57% of the seats that they won in 2014 while losing 43%. A small proportion of this change could be attributed to the alliances formed in the recent election, unlike 2014 when there were no alliances.
Party level analysis shows that despite the decrease in the number of seats won, the ruling alliance of BJP and Shiv Sena had the highest retention rate. BJP managed to retain 66.4% of the seats that it had won in 2014 — the highest among the four major parties. With a retention rate of 57.1%, its ally Shiv Sena came second.
Although both NCP and Congress increased their seat tally, they had a slightly lower retention rate. The rate was 54% for NCP and 50% for Congress. Apart from the big four, other parties suffered the most as they could retain only 5 (25%) of the 20 seats that they won in 2014.
When it comes to individuals, there were 192 MLAs who re-contested in 2019.
This includes contests on their party’s or a rival party’s ticket. About 60% or 116 of these MLAs managed to win, while 76 lost.
Being the largest parties in 2014, BJP and Shiv Sena had the highest chunk of both winners and losers. Of the 87 re-contesting candidates who contested on BJP’s ticket, 62 won while 25 lost.
Similarly, of the 47 candidates who were seeking reelection on Shiv Sena’s ticket, 25 won while 22 were rejected by the electorate.
Interestingly, comparison of individuals with parties shows that rate of re-election of individual MLAs as well as a party’s chance of retaining its seat is largely similar. At individual level, the retention rate was a little over 60%. At party level the retention rate of seats was 57.3%.
1985
In 1985, BJP contested 67 assembly seats and had won only 16 when the Congress dominance was at its peak after the assassination of the former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
At that time, Congress had won 161 out of the 287 seats it contested, securing 43.55 per cent votes.
1990
In the 1990 assembly polls, Congress had secured as many as 141 seats in the 288-member House.
Since then, no national or regional party had come anywhere near the 100 mark: till 2014.
In 1990, the first assembly polls jointly contested by the BJP and Shiv Sena had seen the BJP secure just 42 seats out of 104 it contested and Shiv Sena won 52 out of the 183 alloted to it.
Former BJP leader late Pramod Mahajan was the architect of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance — the oldest ideological partnership of the BJP.
With Mahajan striking a rapport with late Bal Thackeray — the Shiv Sena supremo had offered the Deputy Chief Ministership to the national party, which was till recently before that playing the second fiddle in the state.
1995
BJP-Shiv Sena together secured as many as 138 seats in 1995 (BJP-65, Shiv Sena-73) when they had formed the first non-Congress coalition government in the state.
1999
With Sharad Pawar parting ways with Congress in 1999, the Congress vote got divided and since then, the party shared power with the NCP till 2014.
2014
The Lok Sabha polls earlier in 2014 changed the political complexion of Maharashtra with BJP and its allies capturing 42 out of 48 seats in the state, the second-largest after Uttar Pradesh having 80 seats.
Riding on the Narendra Modi wave, the BJP crossed the century mark in the assembly election in Maharashtra,.
Making deep inroads into Congress and NCP bastions, BJP got 122 seats.
Though the party failed to reach the halfway mark of 144, BJP's record was impressive as it is got nearly three times the seats it secured in 2009 assembly polls when its tally was 47.
The BJP tally was more than the combined figure of 92 seats it had won along with the Shiv Sena in the 2009. This indicated that the gamble played by the Prime Minister Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah more than paid off.
Maha netas lose, but their kids win in polls
Prafulla Marpakwar The Times of India Oct 23 2014 Mumbai:
The recent polls -Lok Sabha and assembly -have thrown up a new trend: while a father lost the election, his son or daughter, albeit not too experienced in the political scene, bagged a seat.
Former industries minister Narayan Rane is the biggest example. Contesting from Kudal, the Congressman stood against his traditional rival, Sena nominee Vaibhav Naik, and lost by a margin of 10,000. Rane used to earlier contest from Kankavli. But his son, Nitesh, who contested from Kankavli, emerged a winner, defeating BJP's Pramod Jathar by 25,000 votes.Incidentally , Rane's elder son Nilesh had lost to Sena's Vinayak Raut from Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg by a huge margin in the LS polls.
In neighbouring Thane, former excise minister Ganesh Naik of NCP lost to BJP's Manda Mhatre by a narrow margin of 1,491. This loss becomes significant as his opponent, Mhatre, had defected from NCP to BJP just a week before the polls to protest against Naik's style of functioning. Though Naik just about missed garnering enough votes, his son Sandeep defeated Sena's Vijay Chougule by 8,725 votes in Airoli.
Similarly , in Dhule, Congress nominee Rohidas Patil lost again, but his son Kunal won against BJP's Manohar Bhadane by 16,082 votes.
Proving that exception is the rule, NCP's Chhagan Bhujbal as well as his son, Pankaj, retained Yeola and Nandgaon. But Bhujbal was defeated in the LS polls by a huge margin by Sena nominee Hemant Godse.
Even LS had witnessed the trend of the more experienced father losing but the scion emerging victorious.Former Union home minister Sushilkumar Shinde lost from his hometown Solapur by a huge margin to BJP's Sharad Bansode. Ever since his defeat, Shinde camped at Solapur to ensure his daughter Praniti's victory. And Praniti did retain Solapur-Central by 9,000 votes, defeating MIM's Sheikh Mail.
In Osmanabad LS poll, controversial NCP nominee Padamsinh Patil was defeated by Sena's Ravindra Gaikwad by 2.34 lakh votes. Since Patil was accused in a murder case, Sharad Pawar had been urged to replace Patil with another candidate, but the NCP chief ignored the plea and renominated him for the LS polls, a decision that did not turn out wise. But in the state polls, Patil's son Rana Jagjitsinh defeated Sena's Omraje Nimbalkar by 10,000 votes.
Congress's Eknath Gaikwad lost to Sena's Rahul Shewale from South Central Mumbai during the LS polls.But in the state, his daughter Varsha retained Dharavi, winning against Sena's Baburao Mane by 15,238 votes.
14 ministers lost elections
From: Oct 4, 2019: The Times of India
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14 ministers lost in the elections to the 2014 Assembly
1995-2014: a summary
From: Sep 22, 2019: The Times of India
From: Sep 22, 2019: The Times of India
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The results of the Maharashtra assembly elections, 1995-1999.
The results of the Maharashtra assembly elections, 2004-2014.
1999-2014: The parties’ strike rate
From:Sep 22, 2019: The Times of India
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The Maharashtra assembly elections, 1999-2014: The parties’ strike rate
2019
An overview of the results
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
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The results of the Maharashtra assembly elections, 2019: an overview
The results explained
Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
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Seats won by different political parties in Vidarbha, 2014- 2019
Seats won by different political parties in urban areas in Maharashtra, 2014- 2019
Seats won by different political parties in rural areas in Maharashtra, 2014- 2019
Dominance of NCP in Maharashtra, 2014- 2019
1. Vidarbha drags BJP down In Maharashtra
In 2014, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 48 of the 62 assembly seats in Vidarbha region. Five years later, the alliance's seat share has dropped to 33. On the other hand, Congress, which won 10 seats in 2014, gained five more seats taking its tally to 15, while NCP, which won only one seat in 2014, bagged 6 in 2019. One of the reasons attributed to the NDA's slide has been agrarian distress in the region. Maharashtra records the most farmer suicides in the country, with over 12,000 deaths in the four years from 2015-2019, largely due to mounting debts because of drought-related crop failures and high loans taken to tide over financial woes. Fadnavis, who had announced a grandiose scheme in 2016 to make the state drought free by 2019, failed to deliver, creating some unpopularity.
2. BJP clear winner in urban areas, lags in rural seats
The BJP was a hit in urban areas compared with rural areas, especially in Maharashtra. Urban areas are traditionally a BJP stronghold, and the NDA won 74 of the total 99 seats here. A. 29% vote share in Maharashtra’s urban areas was enough for the BJP to mop up a majority of seats. In Mumbai, the saffron coalition won 30 of the 36 seats. In the relatively well-off areas in Maharashtra, including the Konkan region and Thane, two-thirds of the seats went to the BJP coalition. Fadnavis’ infrastructure push and the benefits of Centre-sanctioned projects made an impression. However, the coalition won just 87 out of 189 rural seats.
3. Pawar’s comeback in Maharashtra
The dominant Maratha community in western Maharashtra found greater appeal in the ageing Sharad Pawar’s energetic rallies than in the BJP’s reservation pie. The NCP bounced back by retaining its traditional Maratha vote bank with gains in Pune, Ahmednagar, Solapur, Satara, Sangli and Kolhapur districts of western Maharashtra. Unlike the Lok Sabha polls where the BJP-Sena secured sizeable votes from both Marathas and Dhangars, this time round, the Marathas voted chiefly for the NCP that is allied with the Congress in the state.
Pawar succeeded in touching a chord with the Marathas when he raised the issues of agricultural distress, unemployment and the government’s reported apathy for the rural sector. He was also critical of the government for its policy on sugarcane — issues directly or indirectly related to the Maratha community. Further, the Maratha community has a natural affection for Pawar and events like the proposed ED inquiry against him, the Satara rally where he addressed the crowds in pouring rain and the large-scale exodus from the NCP to the BJP generated sympathy for him, putting the reservation issue on the backburner.
The winners
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
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Notable winners and losers in the Maharashtra assembly elections, 2019
Mumbai city
Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
The BJP has stolen a march over Shiv Sena by winning 15 of the 36 state assembly seats in Mumbai while the latter annexed 13. The assembly polls will have far-reaching consequences for the 2022 BMC elections, say political observers. BJP lagged behind Sena’s tally of 84 only by two in the 2017 Mumbai civic elections.
While BJP may have suffered a dent in other parts of the state, it retained its clout in Mumbai Metropolitan Region, bagging 12 assembly seats in Thane and Raigad districts. The Sena tally stood at five.
Aaditya Thackeray’s victory in Worli brought cheer across Sena’s shakhas. On the other hand, Mumbai mayor Vishwanath Mahadeshwar’s defeat in Bandra East, came as a jolt.
BJP winners are fairly sprinkled across the city: Ashish Shelar (Bandra W), Yogesh Sagar (Charkop), Atul Bhatkhalkar (Kandivli E), Vidya Thakur (Goregaon), Mumbai BJP chief Mangal Prabhat Lodha (Malabar Hill), Parag Alavani (Vile Parle), Amit Satam (Andheri W) and Manisha Chaudhary (Dahisar), to name a few. “Mumbaikars took cognisance of the infrastructure projects being implemented by the Fadnavis government and voted generously for BJP,” said a senior BJP leader.
Among BJP’s first-timers in the lotus-shaped Vidhan Bhavan are Parag Shah (Ghatkopar W), Mihir Kotecha (Mulund), Sunil Rane (Borivli) and Rahul Narwekar (Colaba). A senior BJP functionary from Worli, Rane was sent off to Borivli after the party denied nomination to the minister for cultural affairs Vinod Tawde.
Sena stalwarts, including minister Ravindra Waikar, Sunil Prabhu, Sada Sarvankar, Sanjay Potnis, Sunil Raut and Prakash Surve are back in the assembly, indicating Sena retained its hold over its bastions.
Mumbai Congress leaders Amin Patel and Warsha Gayakwad won from their strongholds—Mumbadevi and Dharavi, respectively. Nawab Malik, the lone NCP candidate, won the Anushakti Nagar seat, while SP leader Abu Azmi won from Mankhurd-Shiva ji Nagar constituency.
The Muslim vote
Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
The tally of Muslim MLAs in Maharashtra rose to 10 this election, up from nine in 2014, but that number could have been even higher if the presence of multiple Muslim candidates had not split the votes in several constituencies.
In Bhiwandi West winning BJP candidate Prabhakar Chaugle benefited from the fragmentation of Muslim votes among three candidates. In contrast, in Bhiwandi East, SP’s Rais Shaikh was able to defeat Sena’s Rupesh Mhatre with a slender margin of 956 votes.
“Unlike Bhiwandi East where there was a near consensus among majority of Muslims on Rais Shaikh,” said Urdu journalist Akhtar Kazmi, adding, “The same couldn’t happen in Bhiwandi West and the votes got divided.”
Similarly, in Aurangabad Central, which was held by MIM’s Imtiaz Jaleel before he won the LS polls this year, Sena’s Pradeep Jaiswal won by 12,678 votes as MIM’s Naseeruddin Siddiqui and NCP’s Abdul Qadeer divided a significant chunk of the minority votes. “[The community] frittered away their votes in many constituencies while they could have backed secular parties,” observed political scientist Zahir Ali. He said that MIM’s focus on emotive identity issues helped the saffron alliance consolidate the Hindu votes.
B
Mohammed Wajihuddin, Oct 27, 2019: The Times of India
An analysis of the assembly poll results shows that the Asaduddin Owaisi-led MIM may have won just two seats — Malegaon Central and Dhule City — but it might have also helped defeat Congress-NCP candidates in at least nine seats.
The results have given rise to a debate within the community, especially on social media platforms, whether MIM is a boon or a bane for Muslim representation.
The biggest shocker that MIM gave in this election is helping defeat four-time MLA and former minister Mohammed Arif Naseem Khan in the Chandivali constituency by just 409 votes. Khan got 85,470 votes against Shiv Sena nominee Dilip Lande’s 85,879. If you add MIM candidate Mohammed Imran Qureshi’s 1,167 votes to Khan’s (commentators said these were Congress’ traditional votes), Khan would have easily won his fifth term.
“We have been saying since the beginning that MIM is the B-team of BJP. It was brought into Maharashtra to dent Congress’ Muslim votes and it has succeeded in doing so,” said Congress functionary Mudassar Patel.
In Nagpur Central, Congress’ Bunty Baba Shelke lost to BJP’s Vikas Kumbhare by 4,008 votes as MIM candidate Abdul Sharique Patel took away 8,565 votes. In several other seats, MIM and a few Muslim Independents helped BJP-Sena win by taking away a chunk of Muslim votes which otherwise would have gone to Congress-NCP.
Sena-BJP candidates were helped also by many Muslims who voted for them in several seats. “Sena’s Yamini Jadhav wrested Byculla from Waris Pathan also because many Muslims voted for her. I had appealed to the Muslims, especially Memons, to back Sena in Byculla because she is accessible and will work for everyone,” said Sena’s Muslim face and Memon businessman Sajid Soopariwala.
Former MLA Sohail Lokhandwala too openly batted for Jadhav in Byculla and appealed to the people to vote for her. “My appeal went viral and I reiterate that Muslims should not treat BJP-Sena as untouchables. They must get their work done as they are in office,” said Lokhandwala who had lost a Lok Sabha election from the city in 1998 by just 153 votes.
Shiv Sena reiterates the “50:50” formula
Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray began hard negotiations with BJP over power-sharing by demanding that the allies adopt, in the wake of their victory in the Maharashtra assembly elections, the “50:50” formula suggested by him to the central BJP leadership earlier this year. The formula entails equal distribution of ministerial berths and sharing of the CM’s post for 2.5 years each.
Though the saffron combine returned to power as expected, BJP’s tally has fallen by 17 — from 122 in 2014, when the saffron parties had contested separately, to 105 — and that of the Sena by 7, from 63 to 56.
BJP sources said the demand for splitting the CM term was not likely to pass muster given the clear difference in numbers. In ministerial representation, distribution of portfolios will nedd greater attention. A few days of hard negotiations lie ahead even as PM Narendra Modi told cadres at the BJP HQ in Delhi that Devendra Fadnavis will be chief minister for a full (second) term. The Sena has said the formula for Vidhan Sabha polls was discussed at a meeting between Uddhav, BJP chief Amit Shah and Fadnavis before the Lok Sabha elections. At a presser, Uddhav said, “Under this formula, the Sena should have got 144 of the 288 seats. However, (state BJP president) Chandrakant Patil told me that I should understand BJP’s difficulties and give up my demand for 144 seats. This I did, but now I want the 50:50 formula implemented with the utmost transparency. After all, I too have to run my party.”
Fadnavis parried all questions on the formula, remarking, “It’s been decided between us (Sena-BJP) and we will go ahead accordingly.” This was a signal to Uddhav that the Sena would be suitably placated in a day or two before the BJP high command okays the list of Maharashtra’s ministers.
Sources said Uddhav’s strategy is to wrest more — and meatier — portfolios. Thackeray may also insist that Amit Shah should participate in the talks, it is learnt. Shah, who had come to Mumbai to meet Uddhav during the LS polls, had not visited Matoshree during the assembly campaign.
Uddhav may also insist that the government should accord priority to the Sena’s poll manifesto, which could aggravate the crisis in the saffron alliance, said party watchers.
Uddhav and Fadnavis sent loaded signals to each other through their pressers. While Uddhav spoke of how the poll results were an “eye-opener” for Sena-BJP and how the alliance should be focusing on day-to-day problems of people, a beaming Fadnavis refused to be drawn into any debate on thorny issues, including the defeat of seven ministers.
“It’s time for celebration. The poll results show BJP’s strike rate has gone up. Deep contemplation on where we went wrong will take place tomorrow,” he added.
The BJP’s chief worry is that Thackeray, who had gone soft on his Hindutva ally after BJP’s spectacular victory in the general elections in May, may now strike an aggressive note, given that BJP too has reduced numbers.
Sources say the CM is keen to have the swearing-in of the first batch of BJP-Sena ministers. Fadnavis wants the BJP-Sena regime to be installed at the earliest in order to keep Sharad Pawar at bay. “Pawar has scored a major win. He may try to work out new political equations in Maharashtra with Sena at the centrestage,” said a BJP strategist.
Speculation was rife all through Thursday that NCP was keen on offering the CM’s post to Sena if Thackeray was willing to snap ties with BJP and head a regime propped up by the NCP-Congress, allies and Independents. Given the composition of the new Vidhan Sabha, the NCP president won’t fish in troubled waters, said a Vidhan Bhavan official.
Uddhav, too, dismissed the idea, saying he had no “greed” for power. However, he added in the same breath that he was in no hurry to assume office. “I have lot of time,” he said, in a veiled warning that he may be willing to mull over the NCP’s proposal, if any.
Demographics
From: Oct 25, 2019: The Times of India
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The demographics of the legislative assembly, 2019
Council elections
2020
Prafulla Marpakwar, December 5, 2020: The Times of India
BJP in Maharashtra suffered a jolt as Maha Vikas Aghadi won four out of six state legislative council seats to which elections were held on December 1. Of the five council seats for the graduates’ and teachers’ constituencies, MVA won 4 and BJP none; the solitary seat it won was for the council byelection to the Dhule-Nandurbar local body.
One seat — the Amravati division teachers’ constituency — was won by an independent candidate, with Shiv Sena coming in second and BJP third.
The boost received by the three-party ruling MVA was made more significant by its victory in the Nagpur teachers’ constituency held by BJP for more than five decades. The biennial council elections were of importance to it as it was the first time the alliance of three parties — Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress — was contesting elections under MVA banner. Though Sena did not secure the lone seat (Amravati) it contested, the victory was seen as vital for CM Uddhav Thackeray’s leadership.
Three graduates’ constituencies, two teachers’ constituencies and one local bodies seat had gone to the polls. The Congress won Nagpur (graduates) and Pune (teachers), while NCP won Aurangabad and Pune (both graduates’ constituencies).
In Nagpur, Congress nominee Abhijeet Wanjari defeated BJP’s Sandeep Joshi by a margin of 18,710 votes. BJP also lost the Pune graduates’ constituency, which was earlier represented by state BJP chief Chandrakant Patil.
BJP & Uddhav must introspect: Fadnavis
Leader of opposition Devendra Fadnavis on Friday said it was time for introspection for BJP as well as CM Uddhav Thackeray as BJP had won only one seat, while Shiv Sena “was not even able to even open it account” in the six council seats for which results were declared. NCP chief Sharad Pawar, state Congress president Balasaheb Thorat and NCP leader Eknath Khadse said the MVA’s wins were an endorsement of the functioning of the one-year-old alliance government in the state.
2022
Prafulla Marpakwar & Clara Lewis, June 21, 2022: The Times of India
Mumbai: Just days after the Rajya Sabha elections, Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra was dealt a big blow by BJP, which succeeded in winning five out of 10 seats in the state legislative council polls though it had the votes to win only four. Congress won only one seat, while NCP and Shiv Sena won two each. MVA had fielded six candidates, while BJP had fielded five. Though MVA had adequate numbers to ensure election of all six nominees, it lost one seat while BJP ensured victory of all its five nominees, prima facie owing to large-scale cross-voting and support of independents.
While the poll outcome is being viewed as a major setback for the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA after a Shiv Sena nominee’s loss in the June 10 Rajya Sabha elections, it further strengthens the position of Devendra Fadnavis as the unchal- lenged BJP leader in the state whose electoral strategy has succeeded despite the party facing odds. Fadnavis has won two back-to-back victories after ensuring the win of all three BJP candidates in the RS polls. The surprise win of five seats is likely to bolster BJP morale in the run-up to BMC and other key civic elections. There were 11 candidates for 10 MLC seats. Congress nominee and ex-minister Chandrakant Handore lost the poll when, in fact, the fight for the tenth seat was between Bhai Jagtap of Congress and Prasad Lad of BJP. After counting of preferential votes, Lad and Jagtap were declared elected, while Handore lost. NCP’s Eknath Khadse and Ramraje Nimbalkar, Shiv Sena’s Sachin Ahir and Amisha Padvi, Congress’ Bhai Jagtap and BJP’s Praveen Darekar, Shrikant Bhartiya, Uma Khapre, Ram Shinde, and Lad were declared elected.
State BJP president Chandrakant Patil said the party secured 134 preferential votes. The party has 106 MLAs, besides the support of seven other MLAs. So according to the BJP, 21 votes have split from the MVA.
While Patil credited Fadnavis for BJP’s victory, the ex-CM and opposition leader in the assembly said he does not believe in miracles. “It is the discontent within MVA that has come to the fore and converted into votes,” Fadnavis said.
