Revision as of 13:48, 31 January 2017

The Indian economy, 1975-2015: GDP, the rupee exchange rate, exports, fiscal deficit and inflation, The Times of India

2012-16: fastest growth in 5 years

The Times of India, Jun 01 2016

Economic growth, trends, 2012-16; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, June 1, 2016

Eco grows fastest in 5 years at 7.6%

The country's economy grew 7.6% in 2015-16, the fastest in five years, while growth in the fourth quarter clocked 7.9%, keeping India ahead as the fastest growing major economy in the world.

Indian economy: Some facts regarding GDP, Foreign investment, Domestic infrastructure: Graphic courtesy: The Hindu, July 24, 2016

Economic indicators, India: Sensex, Exchange rate, Gross National Product, GDP growth, Forex Reserves, WPI inflation and 10 year gilt yield; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, August 21, 2016

Real GDP, CPI, WPI, Bank Credit, Expenditure, Current Account Deficit, Repo Rate, 2011-15; Graphic courtesy: India Today, February 15, 2016

Life expentency at birth, Infant mortality, Access to improved sanitation, Mean year of schooling, Female literacy rate, Male literacy rate, 2010,2011; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, March 2, 2016

Income inequalities in India with respect to taxpayers; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, March 1, 2016

Income inequalities in India with respect to taxpayers; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, March 1, 2016

The Indian economy vis-à-vis the Chinese economy in terms of GDP; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, March 1, 2016

The Indian economy vis-à-vis the Chinese economy; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, March 1, 2016

The GDP data also brought cheers for the government, which has completed two years in office and is showcasing revival of the economy as a major achievement. India's 7.9% expansion in JanuaryMarch (fastest in six quarters) is higher than China's 6.7% expansion in the same quarter.In October-December quarter Indian economy grew 7.2%.Growth was powered by strong expansion in the manufacturing, which grew 9.3% in 2015-16 compared to 5.5% in 2014-15 and the farm sector, which clocked a growth of 1.2% in 2015-16 compared to a contraction of 0.2% in the previous year. The growth in the farm sector was despite the impact of a drought. Policy makers lauded the improving health of public finances. “.. India continues to remain a bright spot in the world economy with robust macro-economic and fiscal parameters,“ the finance mini stry said in a statement. Economist said they expect a good monsoon to support improving growth in the months ahead.

“With renewed forecast of more than normal monsoon this year, the situation in agriculture is expected to improve significantly , which will eventually lead to revival of consumption demand, especially in rural areas,“ said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Care Ratings.

“This in turn should also boost investment sentiment and keep food inflation under control. Also implementation of various government schemes and 7th Pay Commission will have an important bearing. With continued strong performance of the service sector, GDP growth in FY17 should see strong contributions from each sector of the economy . We expect GDP growth in FY17 to be around 7.8%,“ he said.

But the numbers also showed some weak spots such as sluggish investment growth.

“Private consumption has emerged as the bulwark of economy in 2015-16, whereas investment growth has slowed.With excess capacity and high leverage, private consumption demand will have to rise further to pare excess capacity and encourage private investment. With normal monsoon, a mild kick to public sector wages and improved transmission of interest rates, private consumption demand is set to get a boost in 2016-17,“ said D K Joshi, chief economist at Crisil.

Government finances

Fiscal deficit

2015-16

The Times of India, Jun 01 2016

Government finances, receipts, expenditure, fiscal deficit and revenue deficit, 2015-16; Graphic courtesy: The Times of India, June 1, 2016

The government managed to rein in fiscal deficit marginally below the revised estimate for 2015-16, despite mopping lower than budgeted taxes. But, it also meant that the finance ministry had to curtail spending below the revised estimates for the last financial year. With the provisional estimate of GDP higher than the advance estimate, the Centre's fiscal deficit was estimated at 3.92% of GDP compared to 3.94% in the revised estimate. Against the revised estimate of Rs 5.35 lakh crore of fiscal deficit, the Centre closed the year with a deficit of Rs 5.32 lakh crore, data released by the controller general of accounts showed.

Fiscal deficit is the difference between the government's total spending and receipts, which include tax, non-tax revenue as well as capital receipts such as proceeds from disinvestment.

This was the second year in a row that the government met the fiscal deficit target, but it did not have to significantly cut spending to meet the projections. With private sector investment remaining subdued, the government has been forced to step up public expenditure and lower oil subsidies last year helped keep keep deficit under check.

The government, however, slipped marginally on revenue deficit, which brea ched the revised estimate of Rs 3.41 lakh crore to close the year at a little over Rs 3.42 lakh crore. Revenue deficit is the difference between receipts and expenditure, such as interest payments and other spending to keep assets running. The government is hoping to meet the deficit targets during the current financial year too.

“The fiscal space available to enhance capital spending in 2016-17 has been limited by the Pay Commission and OROP-related (one-rank, one-pension) commitments, despite the revenue augmentation measures introduced in the Budget for 2016-17. The evolving buoyancy of tax and non tax revenues during the current fiscal would critically impact the headroom available to the government to boost spending on identified priorities such as infrastructure creation and PSU bank recapitalization,“ said Aditi Nayar, senior economist at ratings agency ICRA.

See also

Economy: India 1

Economy: India 2 (Ministry data)